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3.3 Notes: Correlations - The Strength of A Linear Trend: Objectives

This document discusses correlation and linear regression. It begins by explaining how to estimate the correlation coefficient visually and how to calculate it numerically using z-scores. A correlation close to 1 or -1 indicates a strong linear relationship, while a correlation close to 0 indicates a weak or nonexistent linear relationship. It also discusses how the correlation coefficient relates to the slope of the regression line and introduces the coefficient of determination, R2, which measures how well the regression line predicts the data. An example calculation and interpretation is provided.

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56 views15 pages

3.3 Notes: Correlations - The Strength of A Linear Trend: Objectives

This document discusses correlation and linear regression. It begins by explaining how to estimate the correlation coefficient visually and how to calculate it numerically using z-scores. A correlation close to 1 or -1 indicates a strong linear relationship, while a correlation close to 0 indicates a weak or nonexistent linear relationship. It also discusses how the correlation coefficient relates to the slope of the regression line and introduces the coefficient of determination, R2, which measures how well the regression line predicts the data. An example calculation and interpretation is provided.

Uploaded by

Katie
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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3.

3 Notes: Correlations – The


Strength of a Linear Trend
Objectives:
• I can estimate and calculate the correlation coefficient for linear data using z-score.
• I can relate the correlation and the slope of the regression line.
• I can find and interpret the coefficient of determination
I: Estimating the Correlation Coefficient
Visually
• Correlation Coefficient r :
Example 1: Match each of the four scatterplots with its correlation.

A. r = - 0.783 B. r = 0.783 C. r = 0.908 D. r = 0.999


Example 2:
II. Calculating the Correlation Coefficient
r
a. What can you predict about r if there are many points in
Quadrants I & III of the z-score axes?

b. What can you predict about r if there are many points in Quadrants
II & IV of the z-score axes?
II. Calculating the Correlation Coefficient
r
c. What can you say about r if the points are scattered
randomly throughout all four quadrants?

d. Explain why the correlation coefficient for the following


graph is actually negative:
Example 3: Calculate the Correlation
Coefficient
Use the lists in your calculator to generate the necessary information to complete the table.
Example 3: Calculate the Correlation
Coefficient Continued
a. Confirm that your calculator has done its work correctly. Compute by hand the z-scores and z-product for the first airline, America
West, showing all work below.

b. Find the value of the correlation coefficient r using your table values. Write your work below: 

c. Explain in your own words what this correlation coefficient means.

d. Which point makes the largest contribution to the correlation?

e. Which point makes the smallest contribution to the correlation?

f. Explain how you know graphically if a point will make a large or small contribution .
III. Correlation Coefficient and Slope
 IV. Coefficient of Determination,

 Measures the proportion of total variation in the response variable that is explained by the
least-squares regression line.
o The coefficient of determination is a number between 0 and 1, inclusive. That is, 0 < R2
< 1.
o If R2 = 0 the line has no explanatory value
o If R2 = 1 means the line explains 100% of the variation in the response variable.
o An R2 between 0 and 1 indicates the extent to which the dependent variable is
predictable. An R2 of 0.10 means that 10 percent of the variance in Y is predictable from
X; an R2 of 0.20 means that 20 percent is predictable; and so on.
 IV. Coefficient of Determination,
 

 The formula for r does not generalize to regression where there is more than one predictor variable, but the idea of r2 as the
proportion of variance accounted for by the regression does.

 Squaring the linear correlation coefficient to obtain the coefficient of determination works only for the least squares regression
model.
Example 5:
The data points to the right are based on a study for drilling rock. The researchers wanted to determine whether the time it takes to
dry drill a distance of 5 feet in rock increases with the depth at which the drilling begins. So, depth at which drilling begins is the
predictor variable, x, and time (in minutes) to drill five feet is the response variable, y.

Sample Statistics
Mean Standard Deviation
Depth 126.2 52.2
Time 6.99 0.781

• The regression equation: ____________________________


• Point of averages: _______________________ 
• Suppose we were asked to predict the time to drill an additional 5 feet, but we did not know the current depth of the drill. What
would be our best “guess”?
Example 5 Continued:
•  Predict the time to drill five feet if the current depth of the drill is 160 feet?

•  Is the observed drilling time at 160 feet above, or below, average?

•  Why can we make this prediction at 160 feet?

•  What is the correlation coefficient?

•  Describe the scatterplot in terms of shape, trend, and strength.

•  What is the value of r2?

•  Interpret the value of r2.


IV: Regression Toward The Mean – Regression Effect

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