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Confidence Level and Sample Size

Given: - Previous polls showed 62.5% in favor of the bill - Confidence level is 95% - Error is at most 0.02 * = 0.625 * = 1 - 0.625 = 0.375 * = 1.96 * Error (E) is 0.02 * Plugging into the formula: * n = (1.96)2(0.625)(0.375)/(0.02)2 * n = 2450 Therefore, the sample size needed is 2450 constituents.

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430 views26 pages

Confidence Level and Sample Size

Given: - Previous polls showed 62.5% in favor of the bill - Confidence level is 95% - Error is at most 0.02 * = 0.625 * = 1 - 0.625 = 0.375 * = 1.96 * Error (E) is 0.02 * Plugging into the formula: * n = (1.96)2(0.625)(0.375)/(0.02)2 * n = 2450 Therefore, the sample size needed is 2450 constituents.

Uploaded by

Kyla Francine Tiglao
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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CONFIDENCE

LEVEL AND
SAMPLE SIZE
Lesson Objectives

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

 Understand the relation of confidence interval


to sample size.
 Determine sample size based on selected
confidence level.
A. Fill in the blanks with the correct word or group of words to make
 

meaningful statements.
 
1. The round up of 110.12 is______
 2. For a 95% confidence level, the confidence coefficient is
______
 3. When 99% confidence is selected, = ______
 
B. Evaluate each of the following.
 

 
1. 1 – 0.37

2. (0.35)(0.65)

3.2

4.2
How large should a sample be?
Many researchers find this a problem. In fact many
rely on old methods to determine the sample size
they need in their investigations. This problem
should be addressed carefully because needlessly
large samples are a waste of important resources.
On the other hand, insufficient sample size may lead
to poor results.
There are two things to remember when we decide
on the quality of the sample size we need:
confidence and the narrowness of the interval. The
computing formula in determining sample size is
derived from the formula of the margin of error E
where
 
E=
 
E=
 
E== ·  
=
 
=
 
()² =
Formula in Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed when
Estimating the Population Mean
 

Since the value of is usually unknown, it can be estimated by the standard


 

deviation s from a prior sample. Alternatively, we may approximate the range R of


observations in the population and make a conservative estimate of . In any case
round up the value of obtained to ensure that the sample size will be sufficient to
achieve the specified reliability.
Example 1: Feeding Program
 

 
In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the mean
weight, in kilograms, of all six-year old children to be
included in a feeding program. She wants to be 99%
confident that the estimate of is accurate to within 0.06 kg.
Suppose from a previous study, the standard deviation of
the weights of the target population was 0.5 kg, what
should the sample size be?
Given the confidence 99%. Then = 1 – 0.99 = 0.01.
 

Thus, = 2.58

The phrase "accurate to within 0.06 kg" indicates a


narrowed width of the confidence interval.
Thus, the desired error E = 0.06 kg.

Population standard deviation = 0.5 kg


 
=

 
=
 
= So, the required sample size is
463 six-year old children.
= (21.5)

= 462.25
Example 2: Replicating a Study
 

Joshua wants to replicate a study where the lowest


observed value is 12.4 while the highest is 12.8. He wants
to estimate the population mean to within an error of
0.025 of its true value. Using 99% confidence level, find
the sample size that he needs.
Given the confidence 99%. Then = 1 – 0.99 = 0.01.
 

Thus, = 2.58

The desired error E = 0.025

Since R = 12. 8 – 12.4


= 0.4
= = = 0.1
 
=

 
=
 
= So, the required sample size is
107
= (10.32)

= 106.5
Try It!

A particular brand of coffee contains an average of 112 mg


of caffeine per cup with a standard deviation of 20 mg.
Joshua wants to investigate the same to estimate the true
population mean caffeine content correct to within 5 mg
adopting 95% confidence. How many cups of the same
brand of coffee does he need for a sample?
Formula in Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed when
Estimating the Population Proportion

=
In computing the sample size for estimating a population
 

proportion, there are two situations to bear in mind


 
1. If some approximation of is known, that value may be used in
the formula
 
2. If no approximation is known, use = 0. 5, This value will result
in a sample size large enough to guarantee prediction given the
confidence interval and the error of estimate. The reason is that
when and are 0.5 each, the product is at maximum, as shown in
the following table
0.1
0.1 0.9
0.9 0.09
0.09
0.2
0.2 0.8
0.8 0.16
0.16
0.3
0.3 0.7
0.7 0.21
0.21
0.4
0.4 0.6
0.6 0.24
0.24
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.5 0.25
0.25
0.6
0.6 0.5
0.5 0.24
0.24
0.7
0.7 0.3
0.3 0.21
0.21
0.8
0.8 0.2
0.2 0.16
0.16
0.9
0.9 0.1
0.1 0.09
0.09
Example 1: Detergent X

Mary wants to know, with 95% confidence, the proportion of


households who like to use detergent X. A previous survey
showed that 42% like to use detergent X. Mary likes to be
accurate within 2% of the true proportion. What sample size does
Mary need?
Given the confidence 95%. Then = 0.5
 

Thus, = 1.96

= 0.42
Then = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58

The error E is pegged at 2% or 0.02


 

=
 
= ()(0.58)
Thus, Mary needs a
= ()(0.58)(9604) sample of
= 2339.53 2340 respondents

or 2340
Example 2: New School Structure

The Dean of a college wants to use the proportion of a population


to determine the sample size needed to interview regarding their
thoughts about the new school structure. She wants to be able to
assert with a probability 0.95 that her error will be at most 0.05.
Similar polls in the past showed that 65% approved the new
structure. How large a sample does the Dean need?
Given the confidence 95%. Then = 0.5
 

Thus, = 1.96

The given proportion is 65% . That is = 0.65


Thus, = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35

The error E is 5% or 0.05


 

=
 
= ()(0.35)
The dean needs a
= ()(0.35)(1536.64) sample size of
= 349.58 350 respondents

or 350
Try It!

A politician engaged the services of a private opinion


pollster to determine the sample size needed among his
constituents to interview about their perceptions on the
freedom of information bill. Previous polls revealed that
approximately 62.5% are in favor of the bill. The politician
adopted the 0.95 level of confidence and off the population
value by at most 0.02.
Try It!

A politician engaged the services of a private opinion


pollster to determine the sample size needed among his
constituents to interview about their perceptions on the
freedom of information bill. Previous polls revealed that
approximately 62.5% are in favor of the bill. The politician
adopted the 0.95 level of confidence and off the population
value by at most 0.02.

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