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Basic Probability Concept - D

The probability of dots occurring is 2/3, and the probability of dashes occurring is 1/3. Since dots are twice as likely to occur as dashes, and they must sum to 1, we can set up two equations: P(dots) = 2x P(dashes) = x P(dots) + P(dashes) = 1 Solving the system of equations yields: x = 1/3 P(dots) = 2x = 2/3 P(dashes) = x = 1/3 Therefore, the probability of dots is 2/3 and the probability of dashes is 1/3.

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M Dilan Linoval Linoval
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84 views27 pages

Basic Probability Concept - D

The probability of dots occurring is 2/3, and the probability of dashes occurring is 1/3. Since dots are twice as likely to occur as dashes, and they must sum to 1, we can set up two equations: P(dots) = 2x P(dashes) = x P(dots) + P(dashes) = 1 Solving the system of equations yields: x = 1/3 P(dots) = 2x = 2/3 P(dashes) = x = 1/3 Therefore, the probability of dots is 2/3 and the probability of dashes is 1/3.

Uploaded by

M Dilan Linoval Linoval
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Basic Probability Concept

Experiments, Outcomes, Events and Sample Spaces

Experiment: An experiment is any activity from which results are obtained.


A random experiment is one in which the outcomes, or results, cannot be
predicted with certainty.

• Examples:
1. Flip a coin
2. Flip a coin 3 times
3. Roll a die
4. … etc

• Trial: A physical action , the result of which cannot be predetermined


Outcomes, Sample Spaces, Events
Outcome : A possible outcome/ result of the experiment

Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment (usually denoted
by S )
Event : Any subset of the sample space ( usually denoted by cap letters : E, F, A, …)

Example: experiment : Roll a die once


• Sample space : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Event : E = { an even number shows } = { 2, 4, 6 }
Outcomes, Sample Spaces, Events
Example 2: A company has offices in four cities, Jakarta, Surabaya, Makasar,
Medan. A new employee will be randomly assigned to work in on of these offices.

Sample space : S = {Jakarta, Surabaya, Makasar, Medan }

Events : B = the event that the city selected is in East Java


B = { Surabaya }
exercise
• Consider a random experiment of tossing a coin three times.
(a) We wish to observe the exact sequences of heads and tails
obtained. What is the sample space ?
(b) We wish to observe the number of heads in the three tosses.
What is the sample space ?
SET OPERATION
SET OPERATION
3. Union
SET OPERATION
SET OPERATION
SET OPERATION
Venn Diagrams
Graphical representation of sample space and events

A B
A B A

A B A B A A

A B   A B

A B A
B
SET IDENTITIES
Mutually Exclusive Events (disjoint)
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that have no basic outcomes in
common, or equivalently, their intersection is the empty set.

A  B=
exercise
exercise
• Consider the switching networks shown in Fig. Let A1 , A2 , and A3
denote the events that the switches s1 , s2 , and s3 are closed,
respectively. Let Aab denote the event that there is a closed path
between terminals a and b. Express Aab in terms of A1 , A2 , and A3 for
each of the networks shown.
Assigning Probabilities to Events

Probability of an event : “Chance” that an event will occur


• How can we define the probability of event E ?
P( E ) = ?

Example : Toss a fair coin. Then the sample space is S = { H, T },


where H = heads and T = tails. Now what is the probability of H ?
Classical Definition
• Consider an experiment with equally likely finite outcomes. Then the
classical definition of probability of event A, denoted P(A), is defined
by
Relative Frequency Approach

Relative frequency of an event occurring in an infinitely large number of trials


• One way to approach the problem is as follows : Repeat the experiment n times
and count how many times H occurs in n times. Then look at relative frequency of
H:

• We’ll note that as n  ~, this relative frequency approach a number, in our example
is 0.5
Axioms of Probability
First, we assume that for any event , we can assign a number to the
set E, denoted by P( E ). Then
• Axiom 1. 0 P( E ) 1
• Axiom 2. P( S ) = 1
• Axiom 3. For any mutually exclusive event E1, E2, …
we have
Properties of Probability
Properties of Probability

7. If A,, A,, . . . , A, is a finite sequence of mutually


exclusive events in
then

Note that property 4 can be easily derived from axiom


2 and property 3. Since we have
Finite Sample Space
Equally likely events
example
• Consider an experiment of rolling a die. The outcome is
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
Define:
A: the event that outcome is even, i.e., A = {2, 4, 6}
B: the event that outcome is odd, i.e., B = {1, 3, 5}
C: the event that outcome is prime, i.e., C = {1, 2, 3, 5}
• Consider a telegraph source generating two symbols, dots and
dashes. We observed that the dots were twice as likely to occur as the
dashes. Find the probabilities of the dots occurring and the dashes
occurring.

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