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    Ms. Sana Tahir at Giki: Engineering Statistics ES-202

    Uploaded by

    Zain Ashfaq
    The document provides an overview of probability concepts including: - Defining probability as a measure of chance or likelihood of an event occurring. - Categorizing events as impossible, certain, equally likely, unlikely, or likely based on their probability. - Calculating probability as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. - Axioms of probability including that a probability is between 0 and 1, the probability of an impossible event is 0 and certain event is 1, and the probability of mutually exclusive events sums to the probability of their union. - Examples of calculating probabilities of events using the concepts and rules covered.

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    Ms. Sana Tahir at Giki: Engineering Statistics ES-202

    Uploaded by

    Zain Ashfaq
    16 views16 pages
    The document provides an overview of probability concepts including: - Defining probability as a measure of chance or likelihood of an event occurring. - Categorizing events as impossible, certain, equally likely, unlikely, or likely based on their probability. - Calculating probability as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. - Axioms of probability including that a probability is between 0 and 1, the probability of an impossible event is 0 and certain event is 1, and the probability of mutually exclusive events sums to the probability of their union. - Examples of calculating probabilities of events using the concepts and rules covered.

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    Lec#4

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    The document provides an overview of probability concepts including: - Defining probability as a measure of chance or likelihood of an event occurring. - Categorizing events as impossible, certain, equally likely, unlikely, or likely based on their probability. - Calculating probability as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. - Axioms of probability including that a probability is between 0 and 1, the probability of an impossible event is 0 and certain event is 1, and the probability of mutually exclusive events sums to the probability of their union. - Examples of calculating probabilities of events using the concepts and rules covered.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    16 views16 pages

    Ms. Sana Tahir at Giki: Engineering Statistics ES-202

    Uploaded by

    Zain Ashfaq
    The document provides an overview of probability concepts including: - Defining probability as a measure of chance or likelihood of an event occurring. - Categorizing events as impossible, certain, equally likely, unlikely, or likely based on their probability. - Calculating probability as the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes. - Axioms of probability including that a probability is between 0 and 1, the probability of an impossible event is 0 and certain event is 1, and the probability of mutually exclusive events sums to the probability of their union. - Examples of calculating probabilities of events using the concepts and rules covered.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 16

    Engineering Statistics

    ES-202

    MS. SANA TAHIR


    @
    GIKI
    Probability:

    1) Lack of knowledge,
    2) Chance of happening/occurrence of an event.

    2
    Categorization of Events:
    A={ An event}
    P(A)=0, Impossible Event
    P(A)=1, Certain Event
    P(A)= 0.5 , 50%, Equally Likely Event
    P(A)< 0.5, Unlikely Event
    P(A)>0.5, Likely Event

    3
    Probability of a Random Event:
    The probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all sample points in A.

    P(A)= (No. of ways A can occur) / (Total no. of outcomes)


    Or
    P(A)= (No. of chances of occurrence of A)/ (Total no. of
    outcomes)
    P(A)= n(A) / n(S)

    4
    Toy Example
    a) We have a basket containing 20 red balls and our event is
    A={A red ball is drawn}
    P(A)= ?
    b) We have a basket containing 10 red balls and 10 yellow balls
    P(A)= ?
    c) We have a basket containing 5 red balls and 15 yellow balls
    d) We have a basket containing no red balls and 20 yellow balls

    5
    Axioms of Probability
    1) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1,
    2)P(φ) = 0, and P(S) = 1,
    3) If A1, A2, A3, . . . is a sequence of mutually exclusive events, then

    P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪ ·· ·) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + · · · .

    6
    Example:
    A coin is tossed twice. What is the
    probability that at least 1 head occurs?

    7
    Example :
    A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as
    likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the event that a number
    less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).

    8
    Example:
    In previous Example, let A be the event that an even number
    turns up and let B be the event that a number divisible by 3
    occurs. Find P(A ∪ B) and P(A ∩ B).

    9
    Example:
    A statistics class for engineers consists of 25 industrial, 10 mechanical, 10
    electrical, and 8 civil engineering students. If a person is randomly selected
    by the instructor to answer a question, find the probability that the student
    chosen is
    (a) an industrial engineering major and
    (b) a civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.

    10
    Example:
    In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of
    holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.

    11
    Additive Rules
    If A and B are two events, then
    P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).
    If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
    P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).

    For three events A, B, and C,


    P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C) − P(B ∩ C)
    + P(A ∩ B ∩ C).

    12
    Corollary :
    If A1, A2, . . . , An are mutually exclusive, then
    P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + · · · + P(An).

    Corollary :
    If A1, A2, . . . , An is a partition of sample space S, then
    P(A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + · · · + P(An) = P(S) = 1.

    13
    Example :
    John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a
    university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at two
    companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an offer from
    company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B is
    0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get offers from both
    companies is 0.5, what is the probability that he will get at least one offer
    from these two companies?

    14
    Example :
    What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair dice is
    tossed?

    15
    Home task
    If the probabilities that a person purchasing a new automobile will choose
    the color green, white, red, or blue, are, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23,
    respectively. Then what is the probability that a given buyer will purchase a
    new automobile that comes in one of those colors?

    16

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