The Basics of Capital Budgeting: Evaluating Cash Flows: Should We Build This Plant?
The Basics of Capital Budgeting: Evaluating Cash Flows: Should We Build This Plant?
The Basics of Capital Budgeting: Evaluating Cash Flows: Should We Build This Plant?
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Investment Financing
Decision Decision
Reinvestment Refinancing
Real Assets Financial Financial
Manager Markets
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Growth
Risk
Funding
Irreversibility
Complexity
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Investment Evaluation Criteria
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Investment Decision Rule
It should maximise the shareholders’ wealth.
It should consider all cash flows to determine the true
profitability of the project.
It should provide for an objective and unambiguous way of
separating good projects from bad projects.
It should help ranking of projects according to their true
profitability.
It should recognise the fact that bigger cash flows are
preferable to smaller ones and early cash flows are preferable
to later ones.
It should help to choose among mutually exclusive projects that
project which maximises the shareholders’ wealth.
It should be a criterion which is applicable to any conceivable
investment project independent of others by reflecting its risk.
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Evaluation Criteria
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First Principles
Invest in projects that yield a return greater than the minimum
acceptable hurdle rate.
The hurdle rate should be higher for riskier projects and reflect the
financing mix used - owners’ funds (equity) or borrowed money
(debt)
Returns on projects should be measured based on cash flows
generated and the timing of these cash flows; they should also
consider both positive and negative side effects of these projects.
Choose a financing mix that minimizes the hurdle rate and matches
the assets being financed.
If there are not enough investments that earn the hurdle rate, return
the cash to stockholders.
The form of returns - dividends and stock buybacks - will depend
upon the stockholders’ characteristics.
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Steps
Techniques
The main DCF techniques for capital budgeting include: Net Present
Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Profitability Index (PI)
Each requires estimates of expected cash flows (and their timing) for
the project.
• Including cash outflows (costs) and inflows (revenues or savings) –
normally tax effects are also considered.
Each requires an estimate of the project’s risk so that an appropriate
discount rate (opportunity cost of capital) can be determined.
• The discussion of risk will be deferred until later. For now, we will assume
we know the relevant opportunity cost of capital or discount rate.
Sometimes the above data is difficult to obtain – this is the main
weakness of all DCF techniques.
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What is the difference between
independent and mutually exclusive
projects?
Projects are:
independent, if the cash flows of
one are unaffected by the
acceptance of the other.
mutually exclusive, if the cash flows
of one can be adversely impacted
by the acceptance of the other.
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0 1 2 3 4 5 N NN
- + + + + + N
- + + + + - NN
- - - + + + N
+ + + - - - N
- + + - + - NN
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0 1 2 2.4 3
0 1 1.6 2 3
Weaknesses of Payback:
1. Ignores the TVM.
2. Ignores CFs occurring after the
payback period.
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Certain virtues:
Simplicity
Cost effective
Short-term effects
Risk shield
Liquidity
Serious limitations:
Cash flows after payback
Cash flows ignored
Cash flow patterns
Administrative difficulties
Inconsistent with shareholder value
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CFt -100 10 60 80
PVCFt -100 9.09 49.59 60.11
Cumulative -100 -90.91 -41.32 18.79
Discounted
payback = 2 + 41.32/60.11 = 2.7 yrs
Project L:
0 1 2 3
10%
-100.00 10 60 80
9.09
49.59
60.11
18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98.
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Calculator Solution
10 CF1
60 CF2
80 CF3
Limitations:
Involved cash flow estimation
Discount rate difficult to determine
Mutually exclusive projects
Ranking of projects
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Profitability Index
Profitability index is the ratio of the
present value of cash inflows, at the
required rate of return, to the initial
cash outflow of the investment.
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Profitability Index
The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs
100,000 and it can generate cash inflow of Rs
40,000, Rs 30,000, Rs 50,000 and Rs 20,000 in
year 1 through 4. Assume a 10 per cent rate of
discount. The PV of cash inflows at 10 per
cent discount rate is:
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Acceptance Rule
The following are the PI acceptance rules:
Accept the project when PI is greater than one. PI >
1
Reject the project when PI is less than one. PI
<1
May accept the project when PI is equal to one. PI =
1
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Evaluation of PI Method
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NPV Versus PI 13 - 34
Project C Project D
PV of cash inflows 100,000 50,000
Initial cash outflow 50,000 20,000
NPV 50,000 30,000
PI 2.00 2.50
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0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
IRR = ?
-100.00 10 60 80
PV1
PV2
PV3
0 = NPV
Enter CFs, then press IRR:
IRRL = 18.13%. IRRS = 23.56%.
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Find IRR if CFs are constant:
0 1 2 3
IRR = ?
-100 40 40 40
INPUTS 3 -100 40 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 9.70%
0 1 2 10
IRR = ? ...
-1,134.2 90 90 1,090
k (%)
IRR
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S IRRS
k 8.7 k %
IRRL
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Scale of Investment
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Reinvestment Assumption
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Multiple IRR
0 1 2
k = 10%
IRR2 = 400%
450
0 k
100 400
IRR1 = 25%
-800
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0 1 2
Accept Project P?
0 1 2 3 4
Project S:
(100) 60 60
Project L:
(100) 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5
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S L
CF0 -100,000 -100,000
CF1 60,000 33,500
Nj 2 4
I 10 10
Project S:
(100) 60 60
(100) 60 60
(100) 60 (40) 60 60
NPV = $7,547.
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0 1 2 3 4
4,132 4,132
3,415 10%
7,547
0 1 2 3 4
Project S:
(100) 60 60
(105) 60 60
(45)
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0 1 2 3
1. No termination (5) 2.1 2 1.75
2. Terminate 2 years (5) 2.1 4
3. Terminate 1 year (5) 5.2
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NPV(no(3yrs)) = -$123.
NPV(2 yrs) = $215.
NPV(1 yrs) = -$273.
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Conclusions
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Y2 0 0 60 40 40 106.96
Y = Y1 + Y2 60 40 100 40 40 236.38
X 120 30 30 30 30 215.10
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Annual Equivalent Value (AEV) Method
The method for handling the choice of
the mutually exclusive projects with
different lives, as discussed in last
slide, can become quite cumbersome if
the projects’ lives are very long.
We can calculate the annual equivalent
value (AEV) of cash flows of each
project. We shall select the project that
has lower annual equivalent cost.
NPV
AEV
Annuity factor
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AEV for Perpetuities
When we assume that projects can be
replicated at constant scale indefinitely, we
imply that an annuity is paid at the end of
every n years starting from the first period.
(1 k ) n
NPV (NPVn )
(1 k ) n
1
where NPV is the present value of the
investment indefinitely, NPVn is the present
value of the investment for the original life,
n and k is the opportunity cost of capital.
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at Period
which 0
1
–100 + 150 0.909
–120 0.909 + 180 0.826
= 36.35
= 39.60
maximizes the 2 –140 0.826 + 205 0.751 = 38.32
NPV.
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Investment Decisions Under Capital
Rationing
Capital rationing refers to a situation
where the firm is constrained for external,
or self-imposed, reasons to obtain
necessary funds to invest in all
investment projects with positive NPV.
Under capital rationing, the management
has not simply to determine the profitable
investment opportunities, but it has also
to decide to obtain that combination of the
profitable projects which yields highest
NPV within the available funds.
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Profitability Index
The NPV rule should be modified while
choosing among projects under capital
constraint. The objective should be to
maximise NPV per rupee of capital rather
than to maximise NPV. Projects should be
ranked by their profitability index, and top-
ranked projects should be undertaken until
funds are exhausted.
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Capital Rationing