ECEN 615

Methods of Electric Power

Systems Analysis
Lecture 18: State Estimation

Prof. Tom Overbye

Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Texas A&M University
[email protected]
Announcements
• Read Chapter 9 from the book
• Homework 4 is due on Thursday October 31.

2
Nonlinear Formulation
• A regular ac power system is nonlinear, so we need to
use an iterative solution approach. This is similar to
the Newton power flow. Here assume m
measurements and n state variables (usually bus
voltage magnitudes and angles) Then the Jacobian is
the H matrix
 f1 f1 
 x 
xn 
f (x)  1

H ( x)     
x  
 f m 
f m 
 x1 xn 
3
Measurement Example
• Assume we measure the real and reactive power
flowing into one end of a transmission line; then the
zi-fi(x) functions for these two are

ij i j 
ij i  j 
P meas   V 2G  V V G cos     B sin    
 i ij ij i j 
 


  

B 
Q meas
ij
2

 i  ij 2  i j ij
 i j ij 
 V  B  cap   V V G sin     B cos   
i j


– Two measurements for four unknowns
• Other measurements, such as the flow at the other end,
and voltage magnitudes, add redundancy
4
SE Iterative Solution Algorithm
• We then make an initial guess of x, x(0) and iterate,
calculating Dx each iteration This is exactly the least
 z 1  f 1 ( x)  squares form developed
1 1   earlier with HTR-1H an n
x   H R H  H R 
T 1 T
 
 z  f ( x)  by n matrix. This could be
 m m  solved with
Gaussian elimination, but
x ( k 1)  x ( k )  x this isn't preferred
because the problem is
Keep in mind that H is no often ill-conditioned
longer constant, but varies
as x changes. often ill-
conditioned
5
Nonlinear SE Solution Algorithm,
Book Figure 9.11

6
Example: Two Bus Case
• Assume a two bus case with a generator supplying a
load through a single line with x=0.1 pu. Assume
measurements of the p/q flow on both ends of the line
(into line positive), and the voltage magnitude at both
the generator and the load end. So B12 = B21=10.0

ij 
 i j ij 
P meas  V V B sin    
i j 


ij i j ij i 
Q meas  V 2 B  V V  B cos    
 i ij j 


We need to assume a reference angle

V meas  V  0
i i unless we directly measuring phase
7
Example: Two Bus Case
 P12   2.02 
• Let Q   1.5  We assume an
 12    V1   1
 P21   1.98  angle reference
Z meas    x0   2   0  ,  i  0.01 of q1=0
Q
 21   1  V2   1
 V1   1.01 
   
 V2   0.87 

 V2 10 sin( 2 ) V1V2 10 cos( 2 ) V1 10 sin( 2 ) 

 20V  V 10 cos( ) V V 10 sin( ) V 10 cos(  ) 
 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 
 V2 10 sin( 2 ) V1V2 10 cos( 2 ) V1 10 sin( 2 ) 
H ( x)   
  V2 10 cos( 2 ) V V
1 2 10 sin( 2 ) 20V 2  V 1 10 cos(  )
2 
 1 0 0 
 
 0 0 1 
8
Example: Two Bus Case
• With a flat start guess we get
 0 10 0   2.02 
 10 0 10   1.5 
   
 0 10 0   1.98 
H (x )  
0
 , z  f (x )  
0

 10 0 10    1 
 1 0 0   0.01 
   
 0 0 1   0 .13 
0.0001 0 0 0 0 0 
 0 0 .0001 0 0 0 0 
 
 0 0 0.0001 0 0 0 
R 
 0 0 0 0 .0001 0 0 
 0 0 0 0 0.0001 0 
 
 0 0 0 0 0 0.0001
9
Example: Two Bus Case

 2.01 0 2 
H T R 1H  1e 6   0 2 0 
 2 0 2.01

 2.02 
 1.5 
   1.003 
1 
1 1.98
  
x  x   H R H  H R 
1 0 T 1 T

   0.2 
  1  0.8775
 0.01   
 
 0.13

10
Assumed SE Measurement
Accuracy
• The assumed measurement standard deviations can
have a significant impact on the resultant solution, or
even whether the SE converges
• The assumption is a Gaussian (normal) distribution of
the error with no bias

11
SE Observability
• In order to estimate all n states we need at least n
measurements. However, where the measurements are
located is also important, a topic known as observability
– In order for a power system to be fully observable usually we
need to have a measurement available no more than one bus
away
– At buses we need to have at least measurements on all the
injections into the bus except one (including loads and gens)
– Loads are usually flows on feeders, or the flow into a
transmission to distribution transformer
– Generators are usually just injections from the GSU

12
Pseudo Measurements
• Pseudo measurements are used at buses in which there
is no load or generation; that is, the net injection into
the bus is know with high accuracy to be zero
– In order to enforce the net power balance at a bus we need to
include an explicit net injection measurement
• To increase observability sometimes estimated values
are used for loads, shunts and generator outputs
– These “measurements” are represented as having a higher
much standard deviation

13
SE Observability Example

14
SE Bad Data Detection
• The quality of the measurements available to an SE
can vary widely, and sometimes the SE model itself is
wrong. Causes include
– Modeling Errors: perhaps the assumed system topology is
incorrect, or the assumed parameters for a transmission line
or transformer could be wrong
– Data Errors: measurements may be incorrect because of in
correct data specifications, like the CT ratios or even flipped
positive and negative directions
– Transducer Errors: the transductors may be failing or may
have bias errors
– Sampling Errors: SCADA does not read all values
simultaneously and power systems are dynamic
15
SE Bad Data Detection
• The challenge for SE is to determine when there is
likely a bad measurement (or multiple ones), and then
to determine the particular bad measurements
• J(x) is random number, with a probability density
function (PDF) known as a chi-squared distribution,
2(K), where K is the degrees of freedom, K=m-n
• It can be shown the expected mean for J(x) is K, with a
standard deviation of 2K
– Values of J(x) outside of several standard deviations indicate
possible bad measurements, with the measurement residuals
used to track down the likely bad measurements
• SE can be re-run without the bad measurements
16
Example SE Application: PJM and
MISO
• PJM provides information about their EMS model in
– www.pjm.com/-/media/documents/manuals/m03a.ashx

Data here is
from the Sept
2018 (Rev 16)
document

17
 Example SE Application: PJM and
MISO
• PJM measurements are required for 69 kV and up
• PJM SE is triggered to execute every minute
• PJM SE solves well over 98% of the time
• Below reference provides info on MISO SE from
March 2015
– 54,433 buses
– 54,415 network branches
– 6332 generating units
– 228,673 circuit breakers
– 289,491 mapped points
https://www.naspi.org/sites/default/files/2017-05/3a%20MISO-NASPIWokshop-Synchrophasor%20Data%20and
%20State%20Estimation.pdf
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Energy Management Systems
(EMSs)
• EMSs are now used to control most large scale
electric grids
• EMSs developed in the 1970’s and 1980’s out of
SCADA systems
– An EMS usually includes a SCADA system; sometimes
called a SCADA/EMS
• Having a SE is almost the definition of an EMS. The
SE then feeds data to the more advanced functions
• EMSs have evolved as the industry as evolved as the
industry has evolved, with functionality customized
for the application (e.g., a reliability coordinator or a
vertically integrated utility) 19
 NERC Reliability Coordinators

Source: www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/TLR/Pages/Reliability-Coordinators.aspx
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EEI Member Companies

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Electric Coops

22
Texas Electric Coops

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 ERCOT Control Center with EMS

Source: www.texastribune.org/2016/05/17/texas-market-forces-driving-shift-coal-study-says/ 24
 ERCOT EMS

Slide source: ERCOT, D. Penney, J. Mandavilli, M. Henry, “Loss of SCADA, EMS or LCC”
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ERCOT EMS

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