Economic History

Lecture 3 - Fertility

Maka Chitanava, Giorgi Bakradze

Tbilisi 2019
Fertility in Pre-Industrial World
 We saw the living standards were high in North-
West Europe compare to Asia;
 How could they achieve it? According to the model
by – reducing fertility or increasing mortality;
 Malthus argues that these living standards are
maintained high by restraining fertility;
 Until recently researchers thought that Europe
was society where fertility was controlled and that
lead to higher living standards in Malthusian era
Fertility in Pre-Industrial World
 Parish records
 Baptisms, burials, marriages
 Show birth rates well below biological possibilities

 Was thought to be unique to northwestern Europe

 Thus explaining the prosperity

 Women married late, some never did

 Malthus – preventive checks
 More individualistic and rational society
 Realizing the costs of high fertility

 Recent research suggests that it wasn’t unique to Europe

 Methods were different, though
European Fertility
European Fertility
 Hutterites – example of unrestricted fertility
 Differences in the table – health, nutrition, different social
practices
 No conscious birth control
 No targeted number of children
The Diary of Samuel Pepys

 https://www.pepysdiary.com/
European Fertility – why it was
kept relatively limited?

 Because of strange marriage pattern

 European marriage pattern:
 Late first marriage for women: 24-26;
 Not all women marry (10-25% never
marry)
 Little conception outside marriage (3-
4% of birth outside marriage)
European Fertility – why it was
kept relatively limited?
European Fertility – why it was
kept relatively limited?
European Fertility – why it was
kept relatively limited?

 Intuitions – controlling housing stock

 Inherit a house ?
 Land was inherited to one son?

 But in urban areas society did not had

social control of fertility still marriage
market was the same
What about East Asia?

 Until recently is was though the fertility

was very high leading to low living
standards;
 Marriage is universal 99% of females get
marred;
 Female infanticide was widespread
 Average age of marriage was low
compared to Europe
What about East Asia?
What about East Asia?
 Fertility rates lower than in Europe
 Unknown why
 No family planning
 Could have been lower incomes
 Social customs

 An important (and terrible) factor – female

infanticide
 Conscious and deliberate as proven by data
 Could have reduced birth rate per person (not per
woman)
 Georgia - The Causes of Sex Selection:
Demographic Change/Changes in Fertility
Rates
2.4 10000
2.26 9000
2.2
2
8000
2.05
2 7000
1.8 6000
1.8
1.72 5000
1.58
1.6 4000
1.4 3000
2000
1.2
1000
1 0
9 9 0 9 92 99 4 9 9 6 9 9 8 0 00 0 0 2 0 04 00 6 0 0 8 01 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 9 9 6 9 9 8 0 0 0 00 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)
Fertility rate, total (births per woman) WB estimates
Fertility rate, total (births per woman) UN estimates
Source: World Bank. World Development Indicators. Last Updated: 08/02/2017. UN World Population
Prospects: The 2017 Revision.
Note: Figures for TFR UN estimates stand for 5 year average rates, i.e. TFR 2.00 in 2015 is average
number for 2010-2015 years.
 Georgia- Estimated Sex Ratio at Birth in
1990-2017
116
115.2
114 114.1

112
110
107.9
108
106
104.5
104
102

Average Sex Ratio at Birth

Source: UNFPA (2017)

Note: 2017 data source is National Statistics Office
 Georgia - Variations in Sex Ratio at Birth
2010–2014

Source: UNFPA 2017

 Son preference still exists;

 Need for research, monitoring and evaluation;
 Advocacy and communication campaigns are vital to prevent GBSS and enhance
Gender Equality.
What about Foragers?
What about Foragers?

 Europe – 5
 Asia -4.1
 Foragers – 4.5
Explaining Preindustrial
Fertility?

 Fertility started increasing in the 18th century England

 Average age of women at first marriage declined
 Share of never married – too

 Because of job opportunities?

 Probably not
 A modest link between birth rates and living standards at best
 Increased everywhere
The Birth Rate and Income
 Which controls Malthusian Equilibrium B or D ?
 So what was the slope of the curve B?
Explaining Preindustrial
Fertility?

 Fertility was limited in almost all preindustrial societies

 But, with rare exceptions there is no evidence that this was a conscious
individual decision
 Fertility control was absent within marriage in preindustrial
northwestern Europe.
 European “marriage market:”
 Fairly unromantic
 Younger were less desirable as marriage partners
 Less communal control over marriages
 No parental consent
 Fleet Prison “rules” (like Las-Vegas)
The Birth Rate and Income
 What if?
The Birth Rate and Income – A
Better Picture
 By looking a people’s wills
 Relatively rich people write wills
 Still, we can derive a fairly good estimate of the economic
position of men by studying their wills
 Strong positive correlation between wealth and births
 Gender attitudes
The Birth Rate and Income – A
Better Picture
The Birth Rate and Income – A
Better Picture
The Birth Rate and Income – A
Better Picture
QUARTILES Fertility

1 (poorest 25%) 3.8

2 4.5

3 5

4 (riches 25%) 6
The Birth Rate and Income – A
Better Picture - China
Titles Sons # Wives # Sons/Wives

No title 1.95 1 1.95

Some titles 2.17 1.54 1.41

Near Gentry 2.33 1.45 1.61

Gentry 2.04 1.54 1.62

Source: HUMAN CAPITAL AND FERTILITY IN CHINESE CLANS BEFORE MODERN

GROWTH Carol H. Shiue
Europe versus Asia
 Gross fertility rate was about the same in northwestern
Europe as in East Asia
 But living standards were much lower in Asia
???
Europe versus Asia
Readings:

Main reading:
 Ch. 4, pp.