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2.1 Introduction 2.2 Interannual Variability 2.3 Decadal Variability 2.4 Climate Prediction 2.5 Variability of High Impact Weather

The document discusses natural climate variability, specifically interannual and decadal variability. It covers topics such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), explaining the phenomenon and its impacts. Decadal variability in the North Atlantic is also examined. The importance of understanding and predicting such climate variability is discussed due to its effects on societies and ecosystems.

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Jeremy Fl
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51 views46 pages

2.1 Introduction 2.2 Interannual Variability 2.3 Decadal Variability 2.4 Climate Prediction 2.5 Variability of High Impact Weather

The document discusses natural climate variability, specifically interannual and decadal variability. It covers topics such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), explaining the phenomenon and its impacts. Decadal variability in the North Atlantic is also examined. The importance of understanding and predicting such climate variability is discussed due to its effects on societies and ecosystems.

Uploaded by

Jeremy Fl
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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2.

Natural Climate Variability


 
 

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Interannual Variability
2.3 Decadal Variability
2.4 Climate Prediction
2.5 Variability of High Impact Weather
2.1 Introduction: What is Interannual and Decadal Variability?

Time series of SSTs in the East Pacific (region Nino3.4)


2.1 Introduction: What is Interannual and Decadal Variability?

Time series of SSTs in the North Atlantic highlighting the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) – source Knight et al (2005).
2.1 Introduction: What is Interannual and Decadal Variability?

The NAO index is defined as the


anomalous difference between the
polar low and the subtropical high
during the winter season (December
through March).

The positive phase is associated with


more storminess in the Atlantic storm
track and the negative phase with
reduced storminess.
2.1 Introduction: Why is Climate Variability important?

Interannual-to-Decadal Variability impacts Societies:


•Food resources
•Water security
•Health
•Demographics
• Energy

Time series (1941-2001) of average


normalized April-October rainfall
departure for 20 stations in the West
African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N
and West of 10E); following
methodology of Lamb and Peppler,
1992).
2.1 Introduction: Can we predict SI Variability?
Section 2.2 Interannual Variability 

2.2.1 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)


 
(i) Observations
(ii) Theory for ENSO
(iii) Impacts

2.2.2 Interannual variability in Atlantic SSTs

2.2.3 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

 
2.2.1 ENSO: Observations

• Philander, S.G.H, 1990: El Nino, La Nina and the


Southern Oscillation

• Useful El Nino pages:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino-home.html

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~atw/enso
Mean State of the tropical Pacific
coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System
• Warmest SSTs in west, “cold tongue” in east
• Precipitation associated with warmest SSTs
• Easterly trade winds advect equatorial surface
waters westward
The tropical Pacific thermocline
The Walker Circulation
• Mean ascent, and low surface pressure, over warmest SST
associated with deep convection
• Subsidence, and high surface pressure, in non-convecting
regions
• Equatorial trades blow from high to low pressure (balanced
by friction since Coriolis force =>0)

Low
slp

High
slp
El Nino
• During El Nino trade
winds slacken
 E-W tilt of
thermocline &
upwelling of cold
water are reduced.
 SST rises in
central/eastern
equatorial Pacific
 Changes Walker
Circulation
El Nino

Mean climate El Niño ’82/83


SST anomalies during El Nino

Dec 1982

Sept 1987
The 1997/98 El Nino
Jan 1997
The 1997/98 El Nino
Nov
Jun 1997
1997
The 1997/98 El Nino
Nov 1997
The 1997/98 El Nino
Mar 1998
The 1997/98 El Nino
Mar 1997
Jan 1998
The 1997/98 El Nino
Jun 1997
The 1997/98 El Nino
Nov 1997
The 1997/98 El Nino
Mar 1998
What about La Nina?
In La Nina conditions
Dec 1982 SST in the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific
is unusually cold &
easterly trade winds are
unusually strong

Nov 1988
La Nina conditions
sometimes occur in the
year following an El
Nino event (e.g. 1988
followed 1987 El Nino)
Walker Circulation
• British mathematician, director
general of observations for
India (formed after monsoon
failure of 1877- worst famine in
Indian history)
• Arrived in 1904, shortly after
huge famine caused by drought
• Goal to predict Indian Monsoon
• Found that many global climate
variations, including Monsoon
rains in India, were correlated
with the Southern Oscillation
The Southern Oscillation Index

Darwin
x

Tahiti

• Mean pressure is lower at Darwin than Tahiti


• The term “Southern Oscillation” was also coined by Gilbert Walker
• The SOI measures the strength of the Pacific Walker circulation
ENSO
Bjerknes recognised
that the “El Nino”
warming of the
ocean was related
to variations in the
SOI.
During El Nino:
• SOI is low
• Trades are weak
• Precipitation is
enhanced over
central equatorial
Pacific (indicated by
low OLR)
The “Nino3” SST index

Note that El Nino events


do not occur regularly
Why is El Nino important?
• Major climate and economic impacts on
countries around the tropical Pacific, and
further afield.
• Droughts in some regions, floods in others
• Collapse of coastal
fishery in Peru
(largest average
annual catch of marine
fish in the
world)
Impacts on global climate, ecosystems and society
Observing El Nino
TAO Data

TAO on Youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/noaapmel#p/u/0/nzBAWirHMvA

Live TAO data:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
Satellite
Observations
of Sea
Surface
Height
Chronology of Events in the History of
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
late 1800s
Fishermen coin the name El Niño to refer to the
periodic warm waters that appear off the coasts of
Peru and Ecuador around Christmas.
1928
Gilbert Walker describes the Southern Oscillation,
the seesaw pattern of atmospheric pressure
readings on the eastern and western sides of the
Pacific Ocean.
1957
Large El Niño occurs and is tracked by scientists
participating in the International Geophysical Year.
Results reveal that El Niño affects not just the
coasts of Peru and Ecuador but the entire Pacific
Ocean.

1969
Jacob Bjerknes, of the University of California, Los
Angeles, publishes a seminal paper that links the
Southern Oscillation to El Niño.
1975
Klaus Wyrtki, of the University of Hawaii, tracks
sea levels across the Pacific and establishes that
an eastward flow of warm surface waters from the
western Pacific causes sea surface temperatures
to rise in the eastern Pacific.
1976
Researchers use an idealized computer model of
the ocean to demonstrate that winds over the far
western equatorial Pacific can cause sea surface
temperature changes off Peru.
1982
A severe El Niño develops in an unexpected manner,
but its evolution is recorded in detail with newly
developed ocean buoys.
1985
Several nations launch the Tropical Ocean-Global
Atmosphere (TOGA) program, a 10-year study of
tropical oceans and the global atmosphere.
1986
Researchers design the first coupled model of ocean
and atmosphere that accurately predicts an El Niño
event in 1986.
1988
Researchers explain how the "memory" of the
ocean--the lag between a change in the winds
and the response of the ocean--influences
terminations of El Niño and the onset of La Niña.
1996-1997
The array of instruments monitoring the Pacific,
plus coupled ocean-atmosphere models, enable
scientists to warn the public of an impending El
Niño event.

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