Section 2.

5
Additive Rules

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Theorem 2.7

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2-2
Figure 2.7 Additive rule of
probability

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2-3
Corollary 2.1

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2-4
Corollary 2.2

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2-5
Corollary 2.3

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2-6
Theorem 2.8

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2-7
Theorem 2.9

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2-8
Section 2.6
Conditional
Probability,
Independence,
and the Product
Rule

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Definition

• Joint Probability is the probability that two

events will occur simultaneously
• Marginal Probability is the probability of the
occurrence of the single event.

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Example

• In a city, cars are colored black, white or red.

– 10% of all cars are black,
– 60% are white Given that a car is red, what is the
probability that it had an
– The rest are red. accident?
• In one past year, 4% of all cars had an accident.
– 15% of all cars that had an accident are black
– 45% are white
– The rest are red

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 B B1(Black) B2(White) B3(Red) Total
(Marginal
A Prob of Ai)
A1(Accident)
A2(No accident)
Total (Marginal
Prob of Bi)

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2 - 12
 B B1(Black) B2(White) B3(Red) Total
(Marginal
A Prob of Ai)
A1(Accident)
A2(No accident)
Total (Marginal 0.10 0.60 0.30 1
Prob of Bi)

In a city, cars are colored black, white or red.

10% of all cars are black,
60% are white
The rest are red.

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2 - 13
 B B1(Black) B2(White) B3(Red) Total
(Marginal
A Prob of Ai)
A1(Accident)
A2(No accident)
Total (Marginal 0.10 0.60 0.30 1
Prob of Bi)

In one past year, 4% of all cars had an accident.

15% of all cars that had an accident are black
45% are white
The rest are red

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2 - 14
 B B1(Black) B2(White) B3(Red) Total
(Marginal
A Prob of Ai)
A1(Accident)
A2(No accident)
Total (Marginal 0.10 0.60 0.30 1
Prob of Bi)

Marjinal probability of black The joint probability of

red and accident

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2 - 15
Definition 2.10

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2 - 16
Example

• Given that a car is red, what is the probability

that it had an accident?

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2 - 17
Example

• Given
  that a car is red, what is the probability
that it had an accident?
)=

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2 - 18
Example

• Given
  that a car is red, what is the probability
that it had an accident?
) =
=

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2 - 19
Example

• In a classroom of 50 students, 28 are girls and

22 are boys. 16 of the girls are from Ankara, and
10 of the boys are form Ankara.
– Given that the student is a girl, what is the
probability that she is from Ankara?
– Given that the student is from Ankara, what is the
probability that the student is a girl?

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2 - 20
Example

• In a classroom of 50 students, 28 are girls and

22 are boys. 16 of the girls are from Ankara, and
10 of the boys are form Ankara.
– Given that the student is a girl, what is the
probability that she is from Ankara?

– Given that the student is from Ankara, what is the

probability that the student is a girl?

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2 - 21
Definition 2.11

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2 - 22
Theorem 2.10

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2 - 23
Example

• One bag contains 4 white, 3 black balls and

second bag contains 3 white, 5 black balls. One
ball is drawn from the first bag and placed
unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the
second bag is black?

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2 - 24
Figure 2.8 Tree diagram for
Example 2.37

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2 - 25
• We
  are interested in the union of the mutually
exclusive events and
) =

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2 - 26
Theorem 2.11

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2 - 27
Example 2.39

• An electrical system consists of four

components as illustrated in the figure.
– The system works if components A and B work and
either of the components C or D works. Find the
probability that the entire system works
– The component C doesn’t work, given the entire
system works.
Assume that the four components work
independently.
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2 - 28
Figure 2.9 An electrical system for
Example 2.39

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2 - 29
Figure 2.9 An electrical system for
Example 2.39

The system works if components A

and B work and either of the
components C or D works.

The component C doesn’t work, given the entire system works.

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2 - 30
Theorem 2.12

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2 - 31
Definition 2.12

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2 - 32
Section 2.7
Bayes’ Rule

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Example: Categorization of
Adults in a Small Town
E(Employed) E’(Unemployed)
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
600 300

Suppose that 36 of these employed and 12 of those unemployed are

members of a Rotary Club. Find the probability that the event A that the
individual selected is a member of Rotary Club?

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2 - 34
Example: Categorization of
Adults in a Small Town
E(Employed) E’(Unemployed)
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
600 300

Suppose that 36 of these employed and 12 of those unemployed are

members of a Rotary Club. Find the probability that the event A that the
individual selected is a member of Rotary Club?

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2 - 35
Figure 2.13 Tree diagram for the data on
page 63, using additional information on
page 72

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2 - 36
Theorem 2.13

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2 - 37
Figure 2.14 Partitioning the
sample space S

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2 - 38
Figure 2.15 Tree diagram for
Example 2.41

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2 - 39
Theorem 2.14

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