Probability

Probability
 Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur.

 For example –
 Today there is a 60% chance of rain.
 The odds of winning the lottery are a million
to one.
 What are some examples you can think of?
Probability
 Probabilities are written as:

 Fractions from 0 to 1

 Decimals from 0 to 1

 Percents from 0% to 100%

Probability
 If an event is certain to happen, then the probability of the event is
1 or 100%.

 If an event will NEVER happen, then the probability of the event is 0

or 0%.

 If an event is just as likely to happen as to not happen, then the

probability of the event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.
 Probability

Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Certain

0 0.5 1
0% 50% 100%

½
PROBABILITY
 When a meteorologist states that the chance of rain is 50%, the
meteorologist is saying that it is equally likely to rain or not to
rain.

 If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more likely to rain.

 If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain, but it probably will
not rain.
Probability
 What are some events that will never happen and have a probability of
0%?

 What are some events that are certain to happen and have a probability
of 100%?

 What are some events that have equal chances of happening and have
a probability of 50%?
Probability
 The probability of an event is written:

P(event) = number of ways event can occur

total number of outcomes
Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

 An outcome is a possible result of a probability experiment

 When rolling a number cube, the possible outcomes

are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

 An event is a specific result of a probability experiment

 When rolling a number cube, the event of rolling

an even number is 3 (you could roll a 2, 4 or 6).
Probability
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes

What is the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin?

P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1

total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2

P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50%

Probability Word Problem:
Lawrence is the captain of his track team. The team is deciding on a color
and all eight members wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If
Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the probability that he will pick
blue?

Number of blues = 3
Total cards = 8 3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5%
blue blue

yellow green black

blue black
red
Let’s Work These Together
Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to 6. What is the
probability of the following?

a.) an odd number

odd numbers – 1, 3, 5 3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50%
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

b.) a number greater than 5 1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%

numbers greater – 6
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Let’s Work These Together

A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of each outcome? What is the
probability
of rolling an even number?
of rolling an odd number?
OTHER EVENTS
 Independent events
If two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is 

 Mutually exclusive events

The chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is 
DECK
Clubs (♣),
Diamonds (♦),
Hearts (♥)
Spades (♠)
PROBLEM
A card is drawn from a deck. What is the probability that it is Diamond card or an
ace?
PROBLEM
A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of:
(i) ‘2’ of spades (viii) a black card
(ii) a jack (ix) a non-ace
(iii) a king of red colour (x) non-face card of black colour
(iv) a card of diamond (xi) neither a spade nor a jack
(v) a king or a queen (xii) neither a heart nor a red king
(vi) a non-face card
(vii) a black face card
SOLUTION
(i) ‘2’ of spades:
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘2’ of spades is 1 out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘2’ of spade
  

      = 1/52
SOLUTION
(ii) a jack (iii) a king of red colour
Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a jack’ Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a king
is 4 out of 52 cards. of red colour’ is 2 out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a jack’ Therefore, probability of getting ‘a king of
red colour’
 

      = 4/52       = 2/52
      = 1/13       = 1/26
SOLUTION
(iv) a card of diamond (v) a king or a queen

Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a card Total number of king is 4 out of 52 cards.
of diamond’ is 13 out of 52 cards. Total number of queen is 4 out of 52 cards
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a card of Number of favourable outcomes i.e. ‘a king or a
diamond’ queen’ is 4 + 4 = 8 out of 52 cards.
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a king or a
queen’

      = 13/52    
      = 1/4
= 8/52
      = 2/13
SOLUTION
(vii) a black face card:
(vi) a non-face card
Cards of Spades and Clubs are black cards.
Total number of face card out of 52 cards = 3
times 4 = 12 Number of face card in spades (king, queen and jack or
knaves) = 3
Total number of non-face card out of 52 cards = Number of face card in clubs (king, queen and jack or
52 - 12 = 40 knaves) = 3
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a non-face card’ Therefore, total number of black face card out of 52 cards
=3+3=6
    Therefore, probability of getting ‘a black face card’

= 40/52
      = 10/13
      = 6/52
      = 3/26
SOLUTION
(ix) a non-ace:
(viii) a black card:
Number of ace cards in each of four suits namely
Cards of spades and clubs are black cards.
spades, hearts, diamonds and clubs = 1
Number of spades = 13
Therefore, total number of ace cards out of 52 cards = 4
Number of clubs = 13
Thus, total number of non-ace cards out of 52 cards =
Therefore, total number of black card out of 52 cards 52 - 4
= 13 + 13 = 26
= 48
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a black card’
Therefore, probability of getting ‘a non-ace’

      = 26/52
      = 1/2       = 48/52
      = 12/13
SOLUTION
(x) non-face card of black colour:

Cards of spades and clubs are black cards.

Number of spades = 13

Number of clubs = 13

Therefore, total number of black card out of 52 cards = 13 + 13 = 26

Number of face cards in each suits namely spades and clubs = 3 + 3 = 6

Therefore, total number of non-face card of black colour out of 52 cards = 26 - 6 = 20

Therefore, probability of getting ‘non-face card of black colour’

      = 20/52
      = 5/13
SOLUTION
(xi) neither a spade nor a jack
Number of spades = 13
Total number of non-spades out of 52 cards = 52 - 13 = 39
Number of jack out of 52 cards = 4
Number of jack in each of three suits namely hearts, diamonds and clubs = 3
[Since, 1 jack is already included in the 13 spades so, here we will take number of jacks is 3]
Neither a spade nor a jack = 39 - 3 = 36
Therefore, probability of getting ‘neither a spade nor a jack’

      = 36/52
      = 9/13
 SOLUTION
(xii) neither a heart nor a red king
Therefore, neither a heart nor a red king = 39 - 1 = 38
Number of hearts = 13 [Since, 1 red king is already included in the 13 hearts so,
here we will take number of red kings is 1]
Total number of non-hearts out of 52 cards = 52 - 13 = 39 Therefore, probability of getting ‘neither a heart nor a red
king’
Therefore, spades, clubs and diamonds are the 39 cards.

Cards of hearts and diamonds are red cards.

Number of red kings in red cards = 2       = 38/52

      = 19/26
ADVANTAGES
 The principal advantage of probability sampling is fairness, as in contests where
names are selected from a box full of entry forms.
 Probability samples cover a wide population therefore results can be
extrapolated
 One advantage of probability sampling is that a sampling error can be calculated.
Sampling error is the degree to which  a sample might differ from the population.
DISADVANTAGES
 The disadvantage of probability sampling is the possibility of flaws to the randomness
model - in other words, people may cheat the system or interfere with the innate
fairness of the probability sampling system.
 Probability systems are expensive.
 It is Time Consuming.
 There is a greater risk of data manipulation with systematic sampling because
researchers might be able to construct their systems to increase the likelihood of
achieving a targeted outcome rather than letting the random data produce a
representative answer. Any resulting statistics could not be trusted.
APPLICATIONS
 Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade on financial
markets.
 Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, where it is called
pathway analysis.
 An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up
or down, and signals other traders of that opinion.
 Probability can be used to analyze trends in Biology (e.g. disease spread) as well as ecology
(e.g. biological Punnett squares).
 Assessment can be used as a statistical tool to calculate the likelihood of undesirable events
occurring and can assist with implementing protocols to avoid encountering such
circumstances.