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Simulation: Srinivas S

Simulation is a technique for modeling real-world processes and systems on a computer by running experiments on the model. It allows researchers to understand system behavior, evaluate strategies, and make predictions. Some key applications of simulation include modeling computer systems, manufacturing processes, business operations, government systems, and more. Monte Carlo simulation specifically involves selecting random numbers from probability distributions to model stochastic systems over time. Simulation offers advantages like studying existing systems without disruption and testing proposed systems beforehand, but building accurate models requires skill and simulation analysis can be time-consuming.

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Udayveer Singh Chauhan
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60 views

Simulation: Srinivas S

Simulation is a technique for modeling real-world processes and systems on a computer by running experiments on the model. It allows researchers to understand system behavior, evaluate strategies, and make predictions. Some key applications of simulation include modeling computer systems, manufacturing processes, business operations, government systems, and more. Monte Carlo simulation specifically involves selecting random numbers from probability distributions to model stochastic systems over time. Simulation offers advantages like studying existing systems without disruption and testing proposed systems beforehand, but building accurate models requires skill and simulation analysis can be time-consuming.

Uploaded by

Udayveer Singh Chauhan
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simulation

Srinivas S
Dictionary Meaning ...

“ to assume the mere appearance of ,


without the reality”
Introduction
“Simulation is the process of designing a model
of a real system and conducting experiments
with this model for the purpose of either
understanding the behavior of the system
and/or evaluating various strategies for the
operation of the system.”
Contd….
Simulation is one of the most widely used
techniques in operations research and
management science…
No longer the approach of “last resort”!

Simulation is the imitation of a dynamic system using a


computer model in order to evaluate and improve
system performance
Can be done …
• Model complex systems in a detailed way
• Describe the behavior of systems
• Construct theories or hypotheses that account for the
observed behavior
• Use the model to predict future behavior, that is, the effects
that will be produced by changes in the system
• Analyze proposed systems
Applications
• COMPUTER SYSTEMS: hardware components, software
systems, networks, data base management, information
processing, etc..

• MANUFACTURING: material handling systems, assembly


lines, automated production facilities, inventory control
systems, plant layout, etc..

• BUSINESS: stock and commodity analysis, pricing policies,


marketing strategies, cash flow analysis, forecasting, etc..

• GOVERNMENT: military weapons and their use, military


tactics, population forecasting, land use, health care
delivery, fire protection, criminal justice, traffic control, etc..
Monte Carlo Technique
Monte Carlo is a technique for selecting
numbers randomly from a probability
distribution.
These models the effect of the events in a
system as they occur over time. This employs
statistical methods for generating random
behavior and estimating model performance.
This is also called discrete event simulation.
Advantages
• Simulation’s greatest strength is its ability to answer “what if”
questions...

• Can be used to study existing systems without disrupting the


ongoing operations.

• Proposed systems can be “tested” before committing


resources.

• Allows us to control time.

• Allows us to identify bottlenecks.


Disadvantages
• Model building is an art as well as a science. The quality of
the analysis depends on the quality of the model and the skill
of the modeler.

• Simulation results are sometimes hard to interpret.

• Simulation analysis can be time consuming and expensive.

• Should not be used when an analytical method would provide


for quicker results.
Example
The Monte Carlo process of selecting random numbers
according to a probability distribution will be demonstrated
using the following example.

The manager of Computer-World, a store that sells computers


and related equipment, is attempting to determine how many
laptop PCs the store should order each week. A primary
consideration in this decision is the average number of laptop
computers that the store will sell each week and the average
weekly revenue generated from the sale of laptop PCs. A
laptop sells for $4,300. The number of laptops demanded each
week is a random variable (which we will define as x) that
ranges from 0 to 4. From past sales records, the manager has
determined the frequency of demand for laptop PCs for the
past 100 weeks
PCs Demanded Frequency of
per Week Demand
0 20
1 40
2 20
3 10
4 10
  100
Exercise
A small retailer deals in a perishable commodity, the daily demand and supply
of which are random variables. The past 500 days data show the following:
Supply Demand
Available (in Kg.) # Days Available (in Kg.) # Days
10 40 10 50
20 50 20 110
30 190 30 200
40 150 40 100
50 70 50 40

The retailer buys the commodity at Rs. 20 per kg. and sells at Rs. 30 per kg. If any of
the commodity remains at the end of the day it has no salable value and is a dead loss.
Moreover, the loss on any unsatisfied demand is Rs. 8 per kg.
Given the following random numbers. Simulate six days sales:
3 1 1 8 6 3 8 4 1 5 7 9 0 7 3 2 4 3 7 5 8 1 2 7
Use the random numbers alternately, e.g. first pair (31) to simulate and second pair
(18) to simulate demand etc.
The End

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