L2 Forecasting
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maaz amjadL2 Forecasting
Uploaded by
maaz amjadForecasting
Introduction to Forecasting
• What is forecasting?
o Primary Function is to Predict the Future using (time
series related or other) data we have in hand
• Why are we interested?
o Affects the decisions we make today
• Where is forecasting used in OM
o forecast demand for products and services
o forecast availability/need for manpower
o forecast inventory and materiel needs daily
Characteristics of
Forecasts
• They are usually wrong!
• A good forecast is more than a single number
• Aggregated forecasts are usually more accurate
• Accuracy erodes as we go further into the future.
• Forecasts should not be used to the exclusion of known
information
What Makes a Good Forecast?
• It should be timely
• It should be as accurate as possible
• It should be reliable
• It should be in meaningful units
• It should be presented in writing
• The method should be easy to use and understand in most
cases.
Subjective Forecasting
Methods
• Sales Force Composites
o Aggregation of sales personnel estimates
• Customer Surveys
• Jury of Executive Opinion
• The Delphi Method
o Individual opinions are compiled and considered. These are
anonymously shared among group. Then opinion request is
repeated until an overall group consensus is (hopefully)
reached.
Patterns of Demand
Patterns of Demand
Quantity
Time
Figure 1
Patterns of Demand
Quantity
Time
Figure 1 (a) Horizontal: Data cluster about a horizontal line.
Patterns of Demand
Quantity
Time
Figure 1 (b) Trend: Data consistently increase or decrease.
Patterns of Demand
Year 1
Quantity
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Months
Figure 1 (c) Seasonal: Data consistently show peaks and valleys.
Patterns of Demand
Year 1
Quantity
Year 2
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Months
Figure 1 (c) Seasonal: Data consistently show peaks and valleys.
Patterns of Demand
Quantity
| | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
Figure 1 (c) Cyclical: Data reveal gradual increases and
decreases over extended periods.
Demand Forecast Applications
Demand Forecast Applications
Time Horizon
Medium Term Long Term
Short Term (3 months– (more than
Application (0–3 months) 2 years) 2 years)
Forecast quantity
Decision area
Forecasting
technique
Table 1
Demand Forecast Applications
Time Horizon
Medium Term Long Term
Short Term (3 months– (more than
Application (0–3 months) 2 years) 2 years)
Forecast quantity Individual
products or
services
Decision area Inventory
management
Final assembly
scheduling
Workforce
scheduling
Master production
scheduling
Forecasting Time series
technique Causal
Judgment
Table 1
Demand Forecast Applications
Time Horizon
Medium Term Long Term
Short Term (3 months– (more than
Application (0–3 months) 2 years) 2 years)
Forecast quantity Individual Total sales
products or Groups or families
services of products or
services
Decision area Inventory Staff planning
management Production
Final assembly planning
scheduling Master production
Workforce scheduling
scheduling Purchasing
Master production Distribution
scheduling
Forecasting Time series Causal
technique Causal Judgment
Judgment
Table 1
Demand Forecast Applications
Time Horizon
Medium Term Long Term
Short Term (3 months– (more than
Application (0–3 months) 2 years) 2 years)
Forecast quantity Individual Total sales Total sales
products or Groups or families
services of products or
services
Decision area Inventory Staff planning Facility location
management Production Capacity
Final assembly planning planning
scheduling Master production Process
Workforce scheduling management
scheduling Purchasing
Master production Distribution
scheduling
Forecasting Time series Causal Causal
technique Causal Judgment Judgment
Judgment
Table 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Y
Dependent variable
X
Independent variable
Figure 2
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Y
Dependent variable
X
Independent variable
Figure 2
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Y Regression
equation:
Dependent variable
Y = a + bX
X
Independent variable
Figure 2
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Y Regression
equation:
Dependent variable
Y = a + bX
Actual
value
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
X
Independent variable
Figure 2
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Y Regression
Estimate of
Y from equation:
Dependent variable
regression Y = a + bX
equation
Actual
value
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
X
Independent variable
Figure 2
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Deviation,
Y Regression
Estimate of or error
Y from equation:
Dependent variable
regression Y = a + bX
equation
{ Actual
value
of Y
Value of X used
to estimate Y
X
Independent variable
Figure 2
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales
Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
1 264 2.5
2 116 1.3
3 165 1.4
4 101 1.0
Example 1 5 209 2.0
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
3 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0
5 209 2.0 r2 = 0.96
syx = 15.61
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209 2.0
syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209 2.0
syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209
Y = – 8.136 +2.0109.229X syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209
Y = – 8.136 +2.0109.229X syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209
Y = – 8.136 +2.0109.229X syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
Forecast
1.0 1.5for Month
2.0 6
2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
X = $1750, Y = – 8.136 + 109.229(1.75)
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209
Y = – 8.136 +2.0109.229X syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
Forecast
1.0 1.5for Month
2.0 6
2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
X = $1750, Y = 183.015, or 183,015 units
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209
Y = – 8.136 +2.0109.229X syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units)
250 — Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
200 —
1 264 2.5 a = – 8.136
2 116 1.3 b = 109.229X
150
3— 165 1.4 r = 0.98
4 101 1.0 r2 = 0.96
100
5— 209
Y = – 8.136 +2.0109.229X syx = 15.61
50 | | | |
If 1.0
current1.5 stock
2.0 = 62,500
2.5 units,
Advertising (thousands of dollars)
Production = 183,015 – 62,500 = 120,015 units
Figure 3
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
1 264 2.5
2 116 1.3
3 165 1.4
4 101 1.0
5 209 2.0
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales Advertising
Month (000 units) (000 $)
1 264 2.5
2 116 1.3
3 165 1.4
4 101 1.0
5 209 2.0
XY – nXY
a = Y – bX b=
X 2 – nX 2
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
XY – nXY
a = Y – bX b=
X 2 – nX 2
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
XY – nXY
a = Y – bX b=
X 2 – nX 2
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
1560.8 – 5(1.64)(171)
a = Y – bX b=
14.90 – 5(1.64)2
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
a = Y – bX b = 109.229
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
a = 171 – 109.229(1.64) b = 109.229
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
a = – 8.136 b = 109.229
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
a = – 8.136 b = 109.229
Y = – 8.136 + 109.229(X)
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units) Sales,
— Y
Advertising, X
250
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 200264
— 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 150101
— 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 100855
— 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
| | | |
50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
a = - 8.136 = 109.229
Advertisingb(thousands of dollars)
Y = – 8.136 + 109.229(X)
Figure 4
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units) Sales,
— Y
Advertising, X
250
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 200264
— 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 150101
— 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 100855
— 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
| | | |
50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
a = - 8.136 = 109.229
Advertisingb(thousands of dollars)
Y = – 8.136 + 109.229(X)
Figure 4
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
300 —
Sales (thousands of units) Sales,
— Y
Advertising, X
250
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 200264
— 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 150101
— 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 100855
— 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
| | | |
50 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
a = - 8.136 = 109.229
Advertisingb(thousands of dollars)
Y = – 8.136 + 109.229(X)
Figure 4
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
nXY – X Y
r=
[nX 2 – (X) 2][nY 2 – (Y) 2]
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
r = 0.98
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1 264 2.5 660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 165 1.4 231.0 1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
r = 0.98 r 2 = 0.96 YX = 15.61
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1
Forecast
264
for Month
2.5
6:660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 Advertising
165 expenditure
1.4 231.0= $1750
1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209 2.0109.229(1.75)
Y = - 8.136 + 418.0 4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
r = 0.98 r 2 = 0.96 YX = 15.61
Example 1
Causal Methods
Linear Regression
Sales, Y Advertising, X
Month (000 units) (000 $) XY X2 Y2
1
Forecast
264
for Month
2.5
6:660.0 6.25 69,696
2 116 1.3 150.8 1.69 13,456
3 Advertising
165 expenditure
1.4 231.0= $1750
1.96 27,225
4 101 1.0 101.0 1.00 10,201
5 209
Y = 183.0152.0or 183,015
418.0 hinges
4.00 43,681
Total 855 8.2 1560.8 14.90 164,259
Y = 171 X = 1.64
r = 0.98 r 2 = 0.96 YX = 15.61
Example 1
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
450 —
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
450 —
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Figure 5
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
450 —
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 1 400
2 380
Patient arrivals
410 — 3 411
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 1 400
2 380
Patient arrivals
410 — 3 411
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 1 400
2 380
Patient arrivals
410 — 3 411
390 —
411 + 380 + 400
F4 =
3
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 1 400
2 380
Patient arrivals
410 — 3 411
390 —
F4 = 397.0
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 1 400
2 380
Patient arrivals
410 — 3 411
390 —
F4 = 397.0
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 2 380
3 411
Patient arrivals
410 — 4 415
390 —
415 + 411 + 380
F5 =
3
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
Patient
450 —
Week Arrivals
430 — 2 380
3 411
Patient arrivals
410 — 4 415
390 —
F5 = 402.0
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
450 —
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 2
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
450 — 3-week MA
forecast
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Figure 5
Time-Series Methods
Simple Moving Averages
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 —
forecast forecast
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Figure 5
Time-Series Methods
Weighted Moving Average
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 — Weighted
forecast forecastMoving Average
430 — Assigned weights
t 0.70
Patient arrivals
410 — t-1 0.20
t-2 0.10
390 —
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 3
Time-Series Methods
Weighted Moving Average
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 — Weighted
forecast forecastMoving Average
430 — Assigned weights
t 0.70
Patient arrivals
410 — t-1 0.20
t-2 0.10
390 — F4 = 0.70(411) + 0.20(380) +
0.10(400)
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 3
Time-Series Methods
Weighted Moving Average
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 — Weighted
forecast forecastMoving Average
430 — Assigned weights
t 0.70
Patient arrivals
410 — t-1 0.20
t-2 0.10
390 — F4 = 403.7
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 3
Time-Series Methods
Weighted Moving Average
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 — Weighted
forecast forecastMoving Average
430 — Assigned weights
t 0.70
Patient arrivals
410 — t-1 0.20
t-2 0.10
390 — F4 = 404 F5 = 410.7
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 3
Time-Series Methods
Weighted Moving Average
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 — Weighted
forecast forecastMoving Average
430 — Assigned weights
t 0.70
Patient arrivals
410 — t-1 0.20
t-2 0.10
390 — F4 = 404 F5 = 411
370 — Actual patient
arrivals
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 3
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
450 —
Exponential Smoothing
430 — = 0.10
Patient arrivals
410 —
Ft +1 = Ft + (Dt – Ft )
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
450 —
Exponential Smoothing
430 — = 0.10
Patient arrivals
410 —
Ft +1 = Ft + (Dt – Ft )
390 — F3 = (400 + 380)/2
D3 = 411
370 —
F4 = 0.10(411) + 0.90(390)
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
450 —
Exponential Smoothing
430 — = 0.10
Patient arrivals
410 —
Ft +1 = Ft + (Dt – Ft )
390 — F3 = (400 + 380)/2
D3 = 411
370 —
F4 = 392.1
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
450 —
Exponential Smoothing
430 — = 0.10
Patient arrivals
410 —
Ft +1 = Ft + (Dt – Ft )
390 — F4 = 392.1
D4 = 415
370 —
F4 = 392.1 F5 = 394.4
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
450 —
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 —
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
450 —
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Exponential
smoothing
= 0.10
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Exponential Smoothing
3-week MA 6-week MA
450 —
forecast forecast
430 —
Patient arrivals
410 —
390 —
370 — Exponential
smoothing
= 0.10
| | | | | |
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Week
Example 4
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 —
70 —
Patient arrivals
60 —
50 —
Actual blood
test requests
40 —
30 —
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Medanalysis, Inc.
Demand for blood analysis
70 —
At = Dt + (1 – )(At-1 + Tt-1)
Patient arrivals
60 —
Tt = (At – At-1) + (1 – )Tt-1
50 —
40 —
30 —
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Medanalysis, Inc.
Demand for blood analysis
70 —
At = Dt + (1 – )(At-1 + Tt-1)
Patient arrivals
60 —
Tt = (At – At-1) + (1 – )Tt-1
50 —
A0 = 28 patients T0 = 3 patients
40 — = 0.20 = 0.20
30 — A1 = 0.2(27) + 0.80(28 + 3)
| | | | | T
| 1 =| 0.2(30.2
| | |- 28)
| + |0.80(3)
| | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Medanalysis, Inc.
Demand for blood analysis
70 —
At = Dt + (1 – )(At-1 + Tt-1)
Patient arrivals
60 —
Tt = (At – At-1) + (1 – )Tt-1
50 —
A0 = 28 patients T0 = 3 patients
40 — = 0.20 = 0.20
30 — A1 = 30.2 Forecast2 =
| | | | | |T1 =| 2.8
| | | 30.2
| + |2.8 =
| 33 | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Medanalysis, Inc.
Demand for blood analysis
70 —
At = Dt + (1 – )(At-1 + Tt-1)
Patient arrivals
60 —
Tt = (At – At-1) + (1 - )Tt-1
50 —
A2 = 30.2 D2 = 44 T1 = 2.8
40 — = 0.20 = 0.20
30 — A2 = 0.2(44) + 0.80(30.2 + 2.8)
| | | | | |T2 =| 0.2(35.2
| | |- 30.2)
| |+ 0.80(2.8)
| | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Medanalysis, Inc.
Demand for blood analysis
70 —
At = Dt + (1 – )(At-1 + Tt-1)
Patient arrivals
60 —
Tt = (At – At-1) + (1 - )Tt-1
50 —
A2 = 30.2 D2 = 44 T1 = 2.8
40 — = 0.20 = 0.20
30 — A2 = 35.2 Forecast =
35.2 + 3.2 = 38.4
| | | | | |T2 =| | 3.2| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Example 5
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 —
70 —
Patient arrivals
60 —
50 —
Actual blood
test requests
40 —
30 —
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Figure 6
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Trend-adjusted
forecast
70 —
Patient arrivals
60 —
50 —
Actual blood
test requests
40 —
30 —
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Figure 6
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
80 — Trend-adjusted
forecast
70 —
Patient arrivals
60 — Number of time periods 15.00
Demand smoothing coefficient ( ) 0.20
50 — Initial demand value 28.00
Trend-smoothing coefficient ( ) Actual blood
0.20
Estimate of trend test requests
3.00
40 —
30 —
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Week
Figure 6
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Smoothed Trend Forecast
80 —
Week Arrivals Average Trend-adjusted
Average Forecast Error
forecast
0 28 28.00 3.00 0.00 0.00
70 — 1 27 30.20 2.84 31.00 –4.00
2 44 35.23 3.27 33.04 10.96
Patient arrivals
60 — 3 37 38.20 3.21 38.51 –1.51
4 35 40.14 2.96 41.42 –6.42
5 53 45.08 3.35 43.10 9.89
50 — 6 38 46.35 2.93 48.43 Actual
–10.43
blood
7 57 50.83 3.24 49.29 7.71
test requests
40 — 8 61 55.46 3.52 54.08 6.92
9 39 54.99 2.72 58.98 –19.98
10 55 57.17 2.61 57.71 –2.71
30 — 11 54 58.63 2.38 59.78 –5.78
12 52 59.21 2.02 61.01 –9.01
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
13 60 60.99 1.97 61.23 –1.23
0 141 2 3 60 4 5 6 7 8
62.37 9
1.85 10 1162.96
12 13 –2.96
14 15
15 75 66.38 Week 2.28 64.22 10.77
Figure 6
Time-Series Methods
Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Smoothed Trend Forecast
80 —
Week Arrivals Average Trend-adjusted
Average Forecast Error
forecast
0 28 SUMMARY
28.00 3.00 0.00 0.00
70 — 1 27 30.20 2.84 31.00 –4.00
2 Average
44 demand
35.23 3.27 49.80
33.04 10.96
Patient arrivals
60 — 3 Mean 37square error
38.20 3.21 38.51
76.13 –1.51
4 35 40.14 2.96 41.42 –6.42
5 Mean 53absolute deviation
45.08 3.35 7.35
43.10 9.89
50 — 6 Forecast
38 for week
46.35 16 2.93 68.66
48.43 –10.43
Actual blood
7 Forecast
57 for week
50.83 17 3.24 70.95test requests
49.29 7.71
40 — 8 61
Forecast 55.46 18
for week 3.52 54.08
73.24 6.92
9 39 54.99 2.72 58.98 –19.98
10 55 57.17 2.61 57.71 –2.71
30 — 11 54 58.63 2.38 59.78 –5.78
12 52 59.21 2.02 61.01 –9.01
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
13 60 60.99 1.97 61.23 –1.23
0 141 2 3 60 4 5 62.37 6 7 8 1.85 9 10 1162.96
12 13 –2.96
14 15
15 75 66.38 Week 2.28 64.22 10.77
Figure 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45 70 100 100
2 335 370 585 725
3 520 590 830 1160
4 100 170 285 215
Total 1000 1200 1800 2200
Average 250 300 450 550
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45 70 100 100
2 335 370 585 725
3 520 590 830 1160
4 100 170 285 215
Total 1000 1200 1800 2200
Average 250 300 450 550
Actual Demand
Seasonal Index =
Average Demand
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45 70 100 100
2 335 370 585 725
3 520 590 830 1160
4 100 170 285 215
Total 1000 1200 1800 2200
Average 250 300 450 550
45
Seasonal Index = = 0.18
250
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70 100 100
2 335 370 585 725
3 520 590 830 1160
4 100 170 285 215
Total 1000 1200 1800 2200
Average 250 300 450 550
45
Seasonal Index = = 0.18
250
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70/300 = 0.23 100/450 = 0.22 100/550 = 0.18
2 335/250 = 1.34 370/300 = 1.23 585/450 = 1.30 725/550 = 1.32
3 520/250 = 2.08 590/300 = 1.97 830/450 = 1.84 1160/550 = 2.11
4 100/250 = 0.40 170/300 = 0.57 285/450 = 0.63 215/550 = 0.39
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70/300 = 0.23 100/450 = 0.22 100/550 = 0.18
2 335/250 = 1.34 370/300 = 1.23 585/450 = 1.30 725/550 = 1.32
3 520/250 = 2.08 590/300 = 1.97 830/450 = 1.84 1160/550 = 2.11
4 100/250 = 0.40 170/300 = 0.57 285/450 = 0.63 215/550 = 0.39
Quarter Average Seasonal Index
1 (0.18 + 0.23 + 0.22 + 0.18)/4 = 0.20
2
3
4
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70/300 = 0.23 100/450 = 0.22 100/550 = 0.18
2 335/250 = 1.34 370/300 = 1.23 585/450 = 1.30 725/550 = 1.32
3 520/250 = 2.08 590/300 = 1.97 830/450 = 1.84 1160/550 = 2.11
4 100/250 = 0.40 170/300 = 0.57 285/450 = 0.63 215/550 = 0.39
Quarter Average Seasonal Index
1 (0.18 + 0.23 + 0.22 + 0.18)/4 = 0.20
2 (1.34 + 1.23 + 1.30 + 1.32)/4 = 1.30
3 (2.08 + 1.97 + 1.84 + 2.11)/4 = 2.00
4 (0.40 + 0.57 + 0.63 + 0.39)/4 = 0.50
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70/300 = 0.23 100/450 = 0.22 100/550 = 0.18
2
Projected Annual Demand = 2600
335/250 = 1.34 370/300 = 1.23 585/450 = 1.30 725/550 = 1.32
3 Average
520/250 = 2.08 Quarterly Demand
590/300 = 1.97 = =2600/4
830/450 = 650= 2.11
1.84 1160/550
4 100/250 = 0.40 170/300 = 0.57 285/450 = 0.63 215/550 = 0.39
Quarter Average Seasonal Index Forecast
1 (0.18 + 0.23 + 0.22 + 0.18)/4 = 0.20
2 (1.34 + 1.23 + 1.30 + 1.32)/4 = 1.30
3 (2.08 + 1.97 + 1.84 + 2.11)/4 = 2.00
4 (0.40 + 0.57 + 0.63 + 0.39)/4 = 0.50
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70/300 = 0.23 100/450 = 0.22 100/550 = 0.18
2
Projected Annual Demand = 2600
335/250 = 1.34 370/300 = 1.23 585/450 = 1.30 725/550 = 1.32
3 Average
520/250 = 2.08 Quarterly Demand
590/300 = 1.97 = =2600/4
830/450 = 650= 2.11
1.84 1160/550
4 100/250 = 0.40 170/300 = 0.57 285/450 = 0.63 215/550 = 0.39
Quarter Average Seasonal Index Forecast
1 (0.18 + 0.23 + 0.22 + 0.18)/4 = 0.20 650(0.20) = 130
2 (1.34 + 1.23 + 1.30 + 1.32)/4 = 1.30
3 (2.08 + 1.97 + 1.84 + 2.11)/4 = 2.00
4 (0.40 + 0.57 + 0.63 + 0.39)/4 = 0.50
Example 6
Time-Series Methods
Seasonal Influences
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45/250 = 0.18 70/300 = 0.23 100/450 = 0.22 100/550 = 0.18
2 335/250 = 1.34 370/300 = 1.23 585/450 = 1.30 725/550 = 1.32
3 520/250 = 2.08 590/300 = 1.97 830/450 = 1.84 1160/550 = 2.11
4 100/250 = 0.40 170/300 = 0.57 285/450 = 0.63 215/550 = 0.39
Quarter Average Seasonal Index Forecast
1 (0.18 + 0.23 + 0.22 + 0.18)/4 = 0.20 650(0.20) = 130
2 (1.34 + 1.23 + 1.30 + 1.32)/4 = 1.30 650(1.30) = 845
3 (2.08 + 1.97 + 1.84 + 2.11)/4 = 2.00 650(2.00) = 1300
4 (0.40 + 0.57 + 0.63 + 0.39)/4 = 0.50 650(0.50) = 325
Example 6
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Forecast Error
Et = Dt – Ft
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Forecast Error
Et = Dt – Ft
CFE = Et
(Et – E )2
= E 2 n–1
t
MSE =
n
|Et | [ |Et | (100) ] / Dt
MAD = MAPE = n
n
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Absolute
Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
t Dt Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
1 200 225 -25 625 25 12.5%
2 240 220 20 400 20 8.3
3 300 285 15 225 15 5.0
4 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
t Dt Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240 220 20 400 20 8.3
3 300 285 15 225 15 5.0
4 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
t Dt Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240 220 20 400 20 8.3
3 300 285 15 225 15 5.0
4 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
–15 D
E =t = –t 1.875 Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
8
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240 220 20 400 20 8.3
3 300 285 15 225 15 5.0
4 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
– 15 D
E =t = –t 1.875 Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
8
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240
5275 220 20 400 20 8.3
MSE 3= 300 = 659.4
285 15 225 15 5.0
4 8 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
– 15 D
E =t = –t 1.875 Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
8
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 5275240 220 20 400 20 8.3
MSE 3= 300 = 659.4
285 15 225 15 5.0
4 8 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 = 27.4
260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 275 240 35 1225 35 12.7
Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
– 15 D
E =t = –t 1.875 Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
8
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240
5275 220 20 400 20 8.3
MSE 3= 300 = 659.4
285 15 225 15 5.0
4 8 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 = 27.4
260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 195
275= 24.4 240 35 1225 35 12.7
MAD =
8 Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
– 15 D
E =t = –t 1.875 Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
8
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240
5275 220 20 400 20 8.3
MSE 3= 300 = 659.4
285 15 225 15 5.0
4 8 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 = 27.4
260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 195
275= 24.4 240 35 1225 35 12.7
MAD =
8 Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
81.3%
MAPE = = 10.2%
8 Example 7
Choosing a Method
Forecast Error
Measures of Error
Absolute
CFE = – 15 Error Absolute Percent
Month, Demand, Forecast, Error, Squared, Error, Error,
– 15 D
E =t = –t 1.875 Ft Et Et2
|Et| (|Et|/Dt)(100)
8
1 200 225 –25 625 25 12.5%
2 240
5275 220 20 400 20 8.3
MSE 3= 300 = 659.4
285 15 225 15 5.0
4 8 270 290 –20 400 20 7.4
5 230 250 –20 400 20 8.7
6 = 27.4
260 240 20 400 20 7.7
7 210 250 –40 1600 40 19.0
8 195
275= 24.4 240 35 1225 35 12.7
MAD =
8 Total –15 5275 195 81.3%
81.3%
MAPE = = 10.2%
8 Example 7
• References:
• Operations Management by Jay Heizer & Barry Render,
Pearson
• Operations Management by Krajewski, Ritzman, & Malhotra,
Prentice Hall
• Introduction to Management Science by Bernard W. Taylor,
Pearson
118
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