Anderson Sweeney Williams Camm Cochran Fry Ohlmann

An Introduction to
Management Science, 15e
Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making

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 Chapter 11: Waiting Line Models

11.1 – Structure of a Waiting Line System

11.2 – Single-Server Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times
11.3 – Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times
11.4 – Some General Relationships for Waiting Line Models
11.5 – Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines
11.6 – Other Waiting Line Models
11.7 – Single-Server Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals
and Arbitrary Service Times
11.8 – Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model with Poisson Arrivals,
Arbitrary Service Times, and No Waiting Line
11.9 – Waiting Line Models with Finite Calling Populations

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 Chapter 11: Waiting Line Models

Recall the last time that you had to wait at a supermarket

checkout counter, for a teller at your local bank, or to be served
at a fast-food restaurant. In these and many other waiting line
situations, the time spent waiting is undesirable.

Adding more checkout clerks, bank tellers, or servers is not

always the most economical strategy for improving service, so
businesses need to determine ways to keep waiting times within
tolerable limits.

A waiting line is also known as a queue, and the body of

knowledge dealing with waiting lines is known as queueing
theory.

3
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 Waiting Line Models
Waiting line models consist of mathematical formulas and
relationships that can be used to determine the operating
characteristics (performance measures) for a waiting line.

Operating characteristics of interest include:

1. The probability that no units are in the system
2. The average number of units in the waiting line
3. The average number of units in the system (the number of
units in the waiting line plus the number of units being served)
4. The average time a unit spends in the waiting line
5. The average time a unit spends in the system (the waiting
time plus the service time)
6. The probability that an arriving unit has to wait for service

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (1 of 9)
Consider the waiting line at the Burger Dome fast-food
restaurant. Burger Dome sells cheeseburgers, French fries, soft
drinks, and other items.

Although Burger Dome would like to serve each customer

immediately, at times more customers arrive than can be handled
by the Burger Dome food service staff. Thus, customers wait in
line to place and receive their orders.

Burger Dome is concerned that the methods currently used to

serve customers are resulting in excessive waiting times and a
possible loss of sales.

5
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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (2 of 9)
In the current Burger Dome operation, an employee takes a
customer’s order, determines the total cost of the order, receives
payment from the customer, and then fills the order. Once the
first customer’s order is filled, the employee takes the order of
the next customer waiting for service. This operation is an
example of a single-server waiting line.

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (3 of 9)

For many waiting line situations, the arrivals occur randomly

and independently of other arrivals, and we cannot predict
when an arrival will occur. In such cases, the Poisson
probability distribution provides a good description of the
arrival pattern.
The Poisson probability function provides the probability of x
arrivals in a specific time period. The probability function is
 x e
where P( x)  for x  0, 1, 2 ...
x!
x = the number of arrivals in the time period
λ = the mean number of arrivals per time period
e = 2.71828

7
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Structure of a Waiting Line System (4 of 9)
Burger Dome analyzed data on customer arrivals and concluded
that the arrival rate is 45 customers per hour. For a one-minute
period, the arrival rate would be
λ = 45 customers ÷ 60 minutes = 0.75 customers per minute.

The probabilities of 0, 1, and 2 customer arrivals during a one-

minute period are
 0.75 
0
e 0.75
P (0)   e 0.75  0.4724
0!
 0.75 e0.75
1

P (1)   0.75e 0.75  0.75  0.4724   0.3543

1!
 0.75  0.5625  0.4724 
2
e 0.75
P (2)    0.1329
2! 2

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (5 of 9)
The service time is the time a customer spends at the service
facility once the service has started.

At Burger Dome, the service time starts when a customer begins

to place the order with the employee and continues until the
customer receives the order.

Service times are rarely constant. At Burger Dome, the number

of items ordered and the mix of items ordered vary considerably
from one customer to the next. Small orders can be handled in a
matter of seconds, but large orders may require more than two
minutes.

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (6 of 9)

If the probability distribution for the service time can be

assumed to follow an exponential probability distribution,
formulas are available for providing useful information about
the operation of the waiting line.
Using an exponential probability distribution, the probability
that the service time will be less than or equal to a time of
length t is
P  service time  t   1  e
 

where
 = the mean number of units that can be served per time
period, also known as the service rate.
e = 2.71828

10
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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (7 of 9)
Suppose that Burger Dome studied the order-filling process and
found that a single employee can process an average of 60
customer orders per hour. On a one-minute basis, the service
rate would be μ = 60 customers ÷ 60 minutes = 1 customer per
minute.

For example:

P  service time  0.5 min.  1  e 1(0.5)  1  0.6065  0.3935

P  service time  1.0 min.  1  e 1(1.0)  1  0.3679  0.6321
P  service time  2.0 min.  1  e 1(2.0)  1  0.1353  0.8647

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (8 of 9)
For the Burger Dome waiting line, and in general for most
customer-oriented waiting lines, the units waiting for service are
arranged on a first-come, first-served basis; this approach is
referred to as an FCFS queue discipline.

However, some situations call for different queue disciplines.

• Boarding an airplane
• Emergency rooms

This chapter considers only a FCFS que discipline.

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 Structure of a Waiting Line System (9 of 9)
When the Burger Dome restaurant opens in the morning, no
customers are in the restaurant, and the characteristics of the
waiting line system fluctuate depending on realized arrival and
service times. Gradually, activity builds up to a normal or steady
state.

The beginning or startup period is referred to as the transient

period. The transient period ends when the system reaches the
normal or steady-state operation.

Waiting line models describe the steady-state operating

characteristics of a waiting line.

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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times (1 of 11)
In this section we present formulas that can be used to determine
the steady-state operating characteristics for a single-server
waiting line.

The formulas are applicable if the arrivals follow a Poisson

probability distribution and the service times follow an
exponential probability distribution.

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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (2 of 11)
The following formulas can be used to compute the steady-
state operating characteristics for a single-server waiting line
with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times, where

 = the mean number of arrivals per time period (the arrival rate)
 = the mean number of services per time period
(the service rate)

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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (3 of 11)
1. The probability that no units are in the system

P0  1 

2. The average number of units in the waiting line
2
Lq 
   

3. The average number of units in the system


L  Lq 

16
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 Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (4 of 11)
4. The average time a unit spends in the waiting line

Lq
Wq 

5. The average time a unit spends in the system

1
W  Wq 


17
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (5 of 11)
6. The probability that an arriving unit has to wait for
service 
Pw 

7. The probability of n units in the system
n

Pn    P0

These equations are applicable only when the service rate μ is
greater than the arrival rate λ (when λ l μ < 1). If this condition
does not exist, the waiting line will continue to grow without limit
because the service facility does not have sufficient capacity to
handle the arriving units.
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (6 of 11)
Recall that for the Burger Dome problem we had an arrival
rate of  = 0.75 customers per minute and a service rate of
 = 1 customer per minute. Therefore:
 0.75
P0  1   1  0.25
 1
2 0.752
Lq    2.25 customers
      1 1  .075 
 0.75
L  Lq   2.25   3 customers
 1
Lq
2.25
Wq  
 3 minutes
 0.75
1 1
W  Wq   3   4 minutes
 1
 0.75
Pw    0.75
 1

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Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times (7 of 11)
The results:
• Customers wait an average of three minutes before beginning
to place an order, which appears somewhat long for a
business based on fast service.
• The average number of customers waiting in line is 2.25
• 75% of the arriving customers have to wait for service.
• There is a 0.1335 probability that seven or more customers
are in the Burger Dome system at one time.
These are indicators that something should be done to improve
the waiting line operation. The decision of how to modify the
waiting line configuration to improve the operating characteristics
must be based on the insights and creativity of the analyst.

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Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times (8 of 11)
Burger Dome’s management concluded that improvements
designed to reduce waiting times were desirable. To make
improvements in the waiting line operation, analysts often focus
on ways to improve the service rate. Generally, service rate
improvements are obtained by making either or both of the
following changes:
1. Increase the service rate by making a creative design change
or by using new technology.
2. Add one or more servers so that more customers can be
served simultaneously.

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 Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (9 of 11)
Burger Dome’s management decides to employ a design change
that allows the customer to fill out and submit a paper order form
directly to the kitchen while they are waiting in line. This allows
the customer’s food to be ready by the time the employee
collects payment from the customer.
With this design, Burger Dome’s management estimates that the
service rate can be increased from the current 60 customers per
hour to 75 customers per hour.
Thus, the service rate for the revised system is
 = 75 customers ÷ 60 minutes = 1.25 customers per minute.

22
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Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times (10 of 11)
The new operating characteristics are:
Probability of no customers in the system 0.400
Average number of customers in the waiting line 0.900
Average number of customers in the system 1.500
Average time in the waiting line 1.200 min
Average time in the system 2.000 min
Probability that an arriving customer has to wait 0.600
Probability that seven or more customers are in the system 0.028

• The average time a customer spends in the waiting line has

been reduced from 3 to 1.2 minutes.
• The average time a customer spends in the system has been
reduced from 4 to 2 minutes.

23
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Single-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson Arrivals
and Exponential Service Times (11 of 11)
The added cost of any proposed change can be compared to the
corresponding service improvements to help the manager
determine whether the proposed service improvements are
worthwhile.

Another option often available is to add one or more servers so

that orders for multiple customers can be filled simultaneously.

24
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (1 of 12)
A multiple-server waiting line consists of two or more servers
that are assumed to be identical in terms of service capability.
For multiple-server systems, there are two typical queueing
possibilities:

(1) arriving customers wait in a single waiting line (called a

“pooled” or “shared” queue) and then move to the first
available server for processing, or
(2) Each server has a “dedicated” queue and an arriving
customer selects one of these lines to join (and typically is not
allowed to switch lines). In this chapter, we focus on the
system design with a single shared waiting line for all servers.

25
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (2 of 12)

26
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (3 of 12)
In this section we present formulas that can be used to determine
the steady-state operating characteristics for a multiple-server
waiting line. These formulas are applicable if the following
conditions exist:
1. The arrivals follow a Poisson probability distribution.
2. The service time for each server follows an exponential
probability distribution.
3. The service rate  is the same for each server.
4. The arrivals wait in a single waiting line and then move to the
first open server for service.

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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (4 of 12)
The following formulas can be used to compute the steady-state
operating characteristics for multiple-server waiting lines, where

 = the arrival rate for the system

 = the service rate for each server
k = the number of servers

28
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (5 of 12)
1. The probability that no units are in the system
1
P0 
     
n k
k 1
 k 

n 0 n!

k!  k   
 

2. The average number of units in the waiting line

    
k

Lq  P
 k  1 ! k    
2 0

3. The average number of units in the system


L  Lq 


29
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (6 of 12)

4. The average time a unit spends in the waiting line

Lq
Wq 


5. The average time a unit spends in the system

1
W  Wq 


30
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (7 of 12)
6. The probability that an arriving unit has to wait for service

k
1     k 
Pw      P0
k !    k   

7. The probability of n units in the system

n
 
Pw    P0 for n  k
 n! 
  
n

Pn   nk 
P0 for n  k
k !k

31
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (8 of 12)
Because μ is the service rate for each server, kμ is the service
rate for the multiple-server system.

As was true for the single-server waiting line model, the formulas
for the operating characteristics of multiple-server waiting lines
can be applied only in situations where the service rate for the
system exceeds the arrival rate for the system; in other words,
the formulas are applicable only if kμ is greater than λ.

32
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (9 of 12)
Suppose that management wants to evaluate the desirability of
opening a second order-processing station so that two customers
can be served simultaneously.

Assume a single waiting line with the first customer in line moving
to the first available server. Let us evaluate the operating
characteristics for this two-server system.

We use the previous equations for the k = 2-server system using

an arrival rate of λ = 0.75 customers per minute and a service
rate of μ = 1 customer per minute for each server.

33
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (10 of 12)
The results: P0  0.4545 (from Table 11.4 with    0.75)
 0.75 1  0.75   1
2

2 
Lq  0.4545   0.1227 customer
 2  1 !  2  1  0.75
 0.75
L  Lq   0.1227   0.8727 customer
 1
Lq
0.1227
Wq    0.1636 minute
 0.75
1 1
W  Wq   0.1636   1.1636 minutes
 1
1  0.75 
2
 2  1 
Pw       0.4545   0.2045
2!  1   2  1  0.75 

34
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (11 of 12)
Compared to the single-server system:

1. The average time a customer spends in the system (waiting

time plus service time) is reduced from W = 4 minutes to W =
1.1636 minutes.
2. The average number of customers in the waiting line is
reduced from Lq = 2.25 customers to Lq = 0.1227 customers.
3. The average time a customer spends in the waiting line is
reduced from Wq = 3 minutes to Wq = 0.1636 minutes.
4. The probability that a customer has to wait for service is
reduced from Pw = 0.75 to Pw = 0.2045.

35
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 Multiple-Server Waiting Line Model With Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (12 of 12)
Clearly the two-server system will substantially improve the
operating characteristics of the waiting line.

Burger Dome adopted the following policy statement:

For periods when customer arrivals are expected to average 45
customers per hour, Burger Dome will open two order-processing
servers with one employee assigned to each.

36
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Some General Relationships for Waiting Line Models
(1 of 2)

John D. C. Little showed that several relationships exist among

these 4 characteristics, regardless of the waiting line model:
1. The average number of units in the waiting line
2. The average number of units in the system
3. The average time a unit spends in the waiting line
4. The average time a unit spends in the system

37
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Some General Relationships for Waiting Line
Models (2 of 2)
Little’s flow equations:
1. The average number of units in the system, L, can be found by
multiplying the arrival rate,  , by the average time a unit spends
in the system, W.
L  W
Lq  Wq

2. The average time in the system, W, is equal to the average

time in the wait line, Wq , plus the average service time.
1
W  Wq 


38
© 2019 Cengage. All rights reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a
license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Economic Analysis of Waiting Lines
A manager may decide that an average waiting time of one
minute or less and an average of two customers or fewer in the
system are reasonable goals.

The waiting line models presented in the preceding sections can

be used to determine the number of servers that will meet the
manager’s waiting line performance goals.

On the other hand, a manager may want to identify the cost of

operating the waiting line system and then base the decision
regarding system design on a minimum hourly or daily operating
cost. Before an economic analysis of a waiting line can be
conducted, a total cost model, which includes the cost of waiting
and the cost of service, must be developed.

39
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Other Waiting Line Models (1 of 2)
D. G. Kendall suggested a notation that is helpful in classifying
the wide variety of different waiting line models that have been
developed. The three-symbol Kendall notation is as follows:
A/B/k
where
A denotes the probability distribution for the arrivals
B denotes the probability distribution for the service time
k denotes the number of servers

Depending on the letter appearing in the A or B position, a variety

of waiting line systems can be described.

40
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 Other Waiting Line Models (2 of 2)
The letters that are commonly used are as follows:
M designates a Poisson probability distribution for the arrivals or
an exponential probability distribution for service time
D designates that the arrivals or the service times are
deterministic or constant
G designates that the arrivals or the service times have a
general probability distribution with a known mean and
variance

Using the Kendall notation, the single-server waiting line model

with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times is classified
as an M/M/1 model. The two-server waiting line model with
Poisson arrivals and exponential service times would be
classified as an M/M/2 model.
41
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
 End of Presentation: Chapter 11

42
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license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.