Network Analysis : Pert & CPM

Introduction
 Network analysis is one of the important tools for project
management.

 Whether major or minor a project has to be completed in a definite

time & at a definite cost.

 The necessary information of any particular data can be

represented as a project network.

 These techniques are very useful for planning, scheduling and

executing large-time bound projects involving careful co-ordination
of variety of complex and interrelated activities
 Objectives of network analysis
 Helpful in planning
 Inter-relationship of various activities
 Cost control
 Minimisation of maintenance time
 Reduction of time
 Control on idle resources
 Avoiding delays, interruptions
Applications of network analysis
 Planning, scheduling, monitoring and control of
large and complex projects.
 Construction of factories, highways, building,
bridges, cinemas etc.
 Helpful to army for its missile development.
 Assembly line scheduling
 Installation of computers and high tech
machineries
 To make marketing strategies
Methodology Involved in Network
Analysis
Describing the Project

Diagramming the network

Estimating the time of completion

Deterministic
estimates

Probabilistic
estimates

Monitoring the project progress

 Key terminology
 Activity : All projects may be viewed as composed of activities.
It is the smallest unit of work consuming both time& resources
that project manager should schedule & control.

 An activity is represented by an arrow in network diagram

The head of the arrow shows sequence of

activities.
 Classification of activities
 Predecessor activity: Activities that must be completed
immediately prior to the start of another activity are called
predecessor activities.

 Successor activity : activities that cannot be started until one or

more of other activities are completed but immediately succeed
them are called successor activities.

 Concurrent activities: activities that can be accomplished together

are known as concurrent activities.
 Event
 The beginning & end of an activities are called as events .
 Events are represented by numbered circles called nodes.

i j

Event Event
start finish
 Types of Events
 Merge event

 Burst event

 Merge & Burst Event

 Path & Network
 An unbroken chain of activity arrows connecting the initial event to
some other event is called a path.

 A network is the graphical representation of logically & sequentially

connected arrows & nodes representing activities & events of a
project . It is a diagram depicting precedence relationships between
different activities.
 Guidelines for Network
Construction
 A complete network diagram should have one stand point & one
finish point.
 The flow of the diagram should be from left to right.
 Arrows should not be crossed unless it is completely unavoidable.
 Arrows should be kept straight & not curved or bent.
 Angle between arrows should as large as possible.
 Each activity must have a tail or head event.. No two or more
activities may have same tail & head events.
 Once the diagram is complete the nodes should be numbered from
left to right. It should then be possible to address each activity
uniquely by its tail & head event.
Stages for project management
 Project planning stages : in order to
visualize the sequencing or precedence
requirements of the activities in a project, it
is helpful to draw a network diagram.

 Scheduling stage : once all work packages

have been identified and given unique
names or identifiers, scheduling of the
project
 Project control stage :
project control refers to evaluating
actual progress against the plan. If
significant differences are observed, then
the scheduling and resources allocation
decisions are changed to update and
revise the uncompleted part of the project
 Advantages
 Planning & controlling projects
 Flexibility
 Designation of responsibilities
 Achievement of objective with least cost
 Better managerial control
 Limitations of PERT /CPM
 Network diagrams should have clear starting & ending points ,
which are independent of each other which may not be possible in
real life.

 Another limitation is that it assumes that manager should focus on

critical activities.

 Resources will be available when needed for completion for an an

activity is again unreal.
 Difficulties
 Difficulty in securing realistic time estimates.
 The planning & implementation of networks requires trained staff.
 Developing clear logical network is troublesome.
 Example

Activity Predecessor
activity C
A none 2 4 F
A
B none
D
C A 1
6
D A
B
3 G
E B 5
E
F C

G D&E
Draw the network diagram for the following

Activity Predecessor
activity
A none

B A

C A

D B

E C

F D ,E
 3 D
B
A F
5 6
1 2

C
4 E
 Critical path
 Those activities which contribute directly to the overall duration of
the project constitute critical activities, the critical activities form a
chain running through the network which is called critical path.

 Critical event : the slack of an event is the difference between the

latest & earliest events time. The events with zero slack time are
called as critical events.

 Critical activities : The difference between latest start time &

earliest start time of an activity will indicate amount of time by which
the activity can be delayed without affecting the total project
duration. The difference is usually called total float. Activities with 0
total float are called as critical activities
 Critical path
 The critical path is the longest path in the network from the starting
event to ending event & defines the minimum time required to
complete the project.

 The critical path is denoted by darker or double lines.

Difference between PERT & CPM
PERT CPM
A probability model with A deterministic model with well
uncertainty in activity known activity times based upon the
duration . The duration of past experience.
each activity is computed
from multiple time estimates
with a view to take into
account time uncertainty.

It is applied widely for

It is used for construction projects &
planning & scheduling
business problems.
research projects.

CPM deals with cost of project

PERT analysis does not
schedules & minimization.
usually consider costs.
 QUESTION :
Activit Predece Optimisti Most Pessimisti
c (to) likely c (tp)
y ssor (tm)
activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
 Expected time
Activity Te = to +4tm+tp
6

A(1-2) 4
B(1-3) 3
C(2-4) 2
D(2-5) 7
E(3-5) 6
F(4-6) 4
G(5-6) 2
CRITICAL PATH : 1-2-5-6 or
A-D-G
acti te Es Ef Lf LS He Tail Tot Fre Ind
vity = = ad sla al e epe
Es Lf sla ck flo flo nd
+te -te ck at at ent

flo
at
1-2 4 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
1-3 3 0 3 5 2 2 0 2 0 0
2-4 2 4 6 9 7 3 0 3 0 0
2-5 7 4 11 11 4 0 0 0 0 0
3-5 6 3 9 11 5 0 2 2 2 0
4-6 4 6 10 13 9 0 3 3 3 0
5-6 2 11 13 13 11 0 0 0 0 0
 PERT
PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that
involve many inter-related tasks. it improves planning
process because:

1. It forms planner to define the projects various

components activities.
2. It provides a basis for normal time estimates & yet
allows for some measure of optimism or pessimism in
estimating the completion dates.
3. It shows the effects of changes to overall plans they
contemplated.
4. It provides built in means for ongoing evaluation of the
plan.
ESTIMATING ACTIVITY TIMES
 Optimistic time ( t0 ) : is that time estimate of an
activity when everything is assumed to go as per plan.
In other words it is the estimate of minimum possible
time which an activity takes in completion under ideal
conditions.

 Most likely time ( tm ) : the time which the activity will

take most frequently if repeated number of times.

 Pessimistic time ( tp) : the unlikely but possible

performance time if whatever could go wrong , goes
wrong in series. In other words it is the longest time
the can take.
 EXPECTED TIME
 The times are combined statically to develop the
expected time te .

te = to + 4tm + tp
6

Standard deviation of the time of the time required to

complete the project
= tp - to
6
 STEPS INVOLVED IN PERT
 Develop list of activities.
 A rough network for PERT is drawn.
 Events are numbered from left to right.
 Time estimates for each activity are obtained.
 Expected time for each activity is calculated : to+4tm+tp / 6
 Using these expected times calculate earliest & latest finish &
start times of activities.
 Estimate the critical path.
 Using this estimate compute the probability of meeting a
specified completion date by using the standard normal equation
Z = Due date – expected date of completion
standard deviation of critical path
QUESTION : The table shows
activities of project.
Duration (days)
JOB OPTIMISTI MOST PESSIMIS
C LIKELY TIC

1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
1. Draw the network &find expected project
completion time.
2. What is the probability that it would be
completed in 41 days.
 Variance of critical path
Activity To Tp variance

1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total=
10.88
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
Z = DUE DATE – EXPECTED DATE OF
COMPLETION
S.D. OF CRITICAL PATH
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated
value i.e. 1.51 is .4345
So probability is .5 + .4345 = .9345 i.e. 93.45% that
project will be completed on 41 day.
 QUESTION:
Activity predecessor time
estimates (weeks)
activity Precedin to tm tp
g activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
 Find the expected duration and
variance of each activity.
 What is the expected project
length?
 Calculate the variance
&standard deviation of the
project length.
activit to Tm tp te variance

y
A 2 3 10 4 16/9
B 2 3 4 3 1/9
C 1 2 3 2 1/9
D 4 6 14 7 25/9
E 4 5 12 6 16/9
F 3 4 5 4 1/9
G 1 2 7 2 1
Various paths &expected project length
A-C-F = 4+2+4 = 10
A-D-G = 4+7+2 = 13 CRITICAL
PATH
B-E-G = 3+6+2 = 11
Thus critical path is A-D-G with an
expected length of 13 days. Hence the
expected project length is 13 days.

Project variance = 16/9 + 25/9 + 1 = 50/9