Basic Probability T

heory

Afrin Sadia Rumana

Lecturer in Statistics
Bangladesh University of
Professionals
 Probabilit
y
 Probability is the measure of describing the
relative possibility (chance) of a
happening will occur or how likely an
event is.

 Example: Tossing a Coin: When a coin is tossed, there

are two possible outcomes:
– Heads (H) or
– Tails (T)
The probability of the coin landing H is ½. 2

The probability of the coin landing T is

E xperiment, Outcome & E vent
 Experiment: A process that leads to the
occurrence of one and only one of
several possible observations.
 Outcome: A particular result of a single trial
or an experiment.
 Event: A collection of one or more outcomes
of an experiment.
 Example: In tossing a coin,
Experiment: Tossing a coin
Outcome: Head(H) &
Tail(T) 3
Event: Two possible events are getting a Head (H) or getting a
Tail (T).
 Sample S
pace
 The sample space of an experiment or random
trial is the set of all possible outcomes or
results of that experiment. It is denoted by Ω.
 Each outcome is called element of the
sample space.

 Example: Sample space of tossing a coin

and rolling a die is:
Ω={(H,1),(H,2),(H,3),(H,4),(H,5),(H,6),
(T,1),(T,2),(T,3),(T,4),(T,5),(T,6)} 4
 Equally Likely
Outcomes
The outcomes of a trial are called equally
likely if all of them have the same
chance of occurrence.
 Example:
When a coin is tossed, it has two possible outcomes
called head and tail. We shall always assume that
head and tail are equally likely if not otherwise
mentioned. For more than one coin, it will be
assumed that on all the coins, head and tail are
equally likely. 5
 Mutually Exclusive Events
 Two events are called mutually exclusive or disjoint if
they do not have any outcome common between them
that is the occurrence of one of the events means that
none of the others can occur at the same time.

 Example:
i. In tossing a coin, the outcomes Head and Tail are
mutually
exclusive
ii. Throwing a single die, the events , Rolling an even number
having outcomes {2, 4, 6} and the event , Rolling a 6odd
number having outcomes {1, 3, 5} are mutually exclusive
 Exhaustive Events
A set of events are known as exhaustive
events if at least one of the events must
occur when an experiment is
conducted.

 Example:
i. In tossing a coin, the outcomes Head and Tail
are exhaustive events
ii. In throwing a die, the outcomes 1,2,3,4,5 and
7

6 are exhaustive events

 S ure & Impossible E
vents
 The probability of an event that must occur is
1 and this event is called a Certain / Sure
Event.
 Example:
i. In rolling a die, it is certain that the die will land on
a number 1 – 6.
ii. The sun sets in the west.

 The probability of an event that cannot occur is

0 and this event is called an Impossible Event.
 Example:
i. In rolling a die, it is impossible that the die will
land on number 10. 8

ii. A cow is flying.

 P robability L
ine
We can show probability on a probability
line:

The probability of an event is always

between 0 and 1.
9
Approaches of Defining probability

Some approaches of defining probabilities

are:
–Classical approach
–Empirical approach
–Subjective approach

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 C lassical
Approach
Suppose an experiment has N possible
equally likely, mutually exclusive and
exhaustive outcomes. Then the probability
that a specified event occurs equals the
number of ways, f, that the event can
occur, divided by the total number of
possible outcomes. In Symbols,
No. of ways an event can occur
Probabilit y 
Total number of possible outcomes 11
 C lassical
Approach
 Example:
i. The probability of rolling an even number in a
die(event A)
Here, possible outcomes for A = {2, 4, 6}
No. of possible outcomes
P ( A)  
3 Total no. of outcomes
6

ii. The probability of rolling a number four or less

(event B) 12
No. of possible outcomes 4
P(B)  
Here, possible Total
outcomes for B
no. of outcomes = {1,
6 2, 3, 4}
 E mpirical
Approach
 The probability of an event is the proportion (or
fraction) of times the event occurs in a very
long (theoretically infinite) series of repetitions
of an experiment or process is known as the
empirical approach.
 Example: A study of 751 business
administration graduates of the University of
Toledo revealed 383 of the 751 were not
employed in their major area of study in college.
So,
No. of times the event occured in the past 383
Probability    0.51 13

Total number of observations 751

 Subjective Approach
 The probability of an event is a measure of how
sure the person making the statement is that the
event will happen is known as subjective
probability.
 It is not based on any precise computation but is
often a reasonable assessment by a knowledgeable
person.

 Example:
i. After considering all available data, a weather forecaster
might say that the probability of rain today is 30% or 0.3.
ii. The Sales Manager considers that there is 40% chances
of
obtaining the order for which the firm has just quoted. 14
 The A ddition R
ule
 For any two events, the probability that one or the
other (or both) occurs equals the sum of the individual
probabilities less the probability that both occurs
 If and are any two events, then
P(A or B)= P(A)+ P(B) – P(A &
B)

 For mutually exclusive events, the probability that one

or another of the events occurs equals the sum of the
individual probabilities.
 If event C and event D are mutually exclusive, then
P(C or D)= P(C)+ P(D) 15
 The A ddition R
ule
 Example:
Suppose we wish to find the probability of drawing
either a king or a spade in a single draw from a
pack of 52 playing cards.
We define, event A = 'draw a king'
and event B = 'draw a spade'
Since there are 4 kings in the pack and 13 spades,
but 1 card is both a king and a spade.
So, the probability of drawing either a king or a
spade
= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52 = 16/52 = 4/13.
16
 The Complementation R
ule
 The probability that an event occurs equals
one minus the probability that the event does
not occur. Simplifying the relation,
P(A') 1 P(A)
 Example:
Suppose an event A is getting a number
greater than 4 in rolling a die. So.
A={5,6}, then the compliment of A is
A={1,2,3,4}.
2
Now, P( A')  1 P( A)  16 6 17

4
 Multiplication R ule
 The multiplication rule is a result used to determine
the probability that two events, A and B, both
occur.
 The multiplication rule follows from the definition
of conditional probability and for two events A and
B it can be expressed as
P( A & B)  P( A | B).P(B)  P(B | A).P( A)

 For two independent events A and B, the probability

that events and will both occur is found by
multiplying the two individual probabilities of
event and event . P( A & B)  P( A).P(B)
 Contingency
Table
 A frequency distribution for bi-variate data
is called a contingency table or two-way
table.

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 Contingency T
able
 Example: Consider a contingency table
with variables gender and employment
status:
Employed Unemployed Total
(Event (Event B2)
B1 )
Male 48 7 55
(Event A1)

Female 33 12 45
(Event A2)

Total 81 19 100

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 Marginal & Joint
Probability
 For the contingency
table:

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 Marginal
Probability
 The probability of an event occurring, P(A),
it may be thought of as an unconditional
probability. It is not conditioned on
another event.
 Example:
In the contingency table, the events of
being male(A1), female(A2), employed(B1)
and unemployed(B2) are marginal events.
The probability of male 10055  0 . 55
19  0.19
=
The probability of unemployed 100 22

=
 Joint Probability

• The probability of event A and event B occurring.

It is the probability of the intersection of two or
more events.
 Example:
• In the contingency table, the events of being
employed male(A1 & B1), employed female(A2
& B1), unemployed male(A1 & B2) and
• unemployed female(A2 & B2) are joint
events.
Good Luck !

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