The Human Population

and its Impact

Chapter 6
and
Chapter 23-4
The Human
Population
Over Time
The time it takes our
population to double
has decreased sharply.

It only has taken about

12 years to go from 6-
7 billion people.

We are projected to hit

9 billion near the year
2050.

Estimates say
stabilization around
2100. (10.5 billion)
Human Population Over Time
What’s your number?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15391515

Population Clock (census)

http://www.census.gov/popclock/

Population growth video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khFjdmp9sZk

3
Why our population has grown so
quickly….
Humans have the ability to expand into all climate zones and
habitats
Modern agriculture has allowed us to produce food very
efficiently and in large quantities
Death rates decreased because of improved sanitation and
healthcare (biggest influence)

The current global population growth rate is around 1.3% per

year (and slowing). Most of this growth happens in developing
countries.
If growth rate is slowing…why is our population still growing?
• Overall, the world
population is growing at
a rate of about 1.7
percent; if this rate
continues, the
population will double in
41 years.

• Population growth rate

peaked in the 1960s at
about 2%
Carrying Capacity
Under ideal conditions populations will grow exponentially until
limiting factors cause growth to slow.

Carrying Capacity: maximum number of individuals an ecosystem

can support
 Determined by limiting factors
 Carrying capacity for humans on earth is highly debated.
 Innovation and technology
 Rules other populations follow don’t apply to us

Cultural carrying capacity: the maximum number of people who

could live in reasonable freedom and comfort indefinitely without
decreasing the ability of the earth to sustain future generations.
 What standard of living are we willing to accept?
Factors Affecting Growth
When inputs into a system are larger than the outputs the system will
grow

Births, Deaths, Immigration and Emigration

 Crude birth rate: births per 1000
 Crude death rate: deaths per 1000

 Fertility Rates
 Replacement level fertility (number to replace the parents)
 Average 2.1-2.5 (babies dying before reproductive years)
 Gauges changes in population size

 Total fertility (estimate of average number of children born to women)

 Lower in developed countries
 US about 2.1
 On average declining worldwide
 China 1.5 TFR (one child policy)
What factors affect birth and fertility rates?
 Labor force
 Cost of raising and educating children
 Urbanization
 Infant deaths
 Education for women
 Marrying age
 Access to contraceptives

What factors affect death rates?

 Access to nutrition, medical care, clean water
 Community support for elders
 Increased life expectancy
 Usually higher for women
 Decrease in infant mortality
 Infant Mortality
Good measure of a nation’s
quality of life

Measured as number of
infant deaths per 1000 births
World average is 46

40 countries have a lower

IMR than the US. Why?
Inadequate prenatal care,
drug addiction, teenage
pregnancies, socioeconomic
variances
http://www.povertymap.net/pub/mipwa/sections/w-global/health-sanit/infant-mortality-2.htm
Factors affecting Migration (immigration and emigration)
 Net Migration Rate: difference between immigration and
emigration per 1000 people in a given year (only effects individual
countries)
 Better jobs and economic improvement
 Religious, ethnic, or political conflicts
 Lack of access to basic needs (food, water, etc.)
 Environmental refugees
Exponential Growth Calculations
Calculating and Predicting Rates of Growth—The Rule of
70
With populations that are growing exponentially we can use
the rule of 70 to predict rates of growth and population
doubling times.

 **Assumes growth rate is constant. Estimate only.**

Doubling time (dt) = 70/ % growth rate

or
% growth rate = 70/dt
Practice Problems
If the starting population of 5 rabbits grows at 2% each
year, how long will it take the population to double?

If the doubling time for a population is 7 years what is the

growth rate over this time period?
 Population Pyramids
Graph (histogram) that allows us to see the population growth
within a country broken down by age groups and gender

 horizontal axis: gender

 male: left-hand female: right-hand
 absolute number of people or %

 vertical axis: age

 5-year or 10-year age groups

Ages categorized as…

 Pre-reproductive: ages 0-14
 Reproductive: ages 15-44
 Post-reproductive: ages 44+
Population Pyramids
We classify our pyramids based on the shape they take.
Rapidly Growing: large amounts of people in the pre-
reproductive and reproductive years
 Very large bottom of the pyramid
Growing Slowly: more individuals in the pre-reproductive
and reproductive years
 Bottom of pyramid is slightly larger than the rest
Stable (zero population growth): population is evenly
distributed throughout age groups
 Pyramid is relatively even top to bottom
Declining (negative growth): more individuals in the post-
reproductive age groups
 Bottom of pyramid is smaller than the top
Rapid Growth
Expanding Slowly
Stable—Zero Population Growth
Declining
The US Baby Boom.
Population Pyramids
We also see differences based on economics. Is the
country developed or developing?
Allows us to project future growth based on age structure.
World Population Pyramid
Using the data for the total population of the world (from
2010), construct an age structure pyramid. We will use this
as a reference for other countries we discuss.
You will first need to convert the numbers into percentages
for both males and females.
 Divide the number in each category by the total population.

When finished with world pyramid, grab individual country

pyramid and answer comparison questions.
Demographic Transition
 Movement of a nation from high population growth to low
population as it develops economically (from subsistence economy
to affluence).
 Traced through graphs of a population change over time (birth rates
and death rates)
 Illustrates how countries will influence the environment as they
transition
 most countries will go through this transition in the next few decades
due to technological and economic development
 Transition as a result of five stages
 Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high
 Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises
 Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls
 Stage 4 and 5—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative
rate
 Stage 1
high birth rates, high
(at time erratic) death
rates, low growth rates,
low total population

stage for much of

human history,
traditional societies

practically no country
today
 Stage 2
high birth rates,
declining death rates,
rising growth rates

improvements in
sanitation (water) and
medicine

“developing countries”

much of Africa today,

some countries of Asia
(Afghanistan, Nepal,
etc.)
Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base
 Stage 3
continued decline of
death rates, declining
birth rates, growth rates
decline from high to
lower levels

“moderately developed
countries”

economic change:
urbanization (incentive to
have fewer children)

Mexico today
Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base

stage 3: wide middle

stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base
Stage 4 & 5
Stage 4: low birth rates,
low death rates, low
growth rates
 United States today

Stage 5: low birth rates,

rising death rates,
declining growth rates (if
birth rates drop below
death rates: negative
growth rates)
 several countries of
Europe today (Austria)
Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base
Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base
by comparing age structure diagrams between countries it
is possible to infer social changes that occurred within the
country and predict future population changes

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Solutions for slowing population
growth
economic development
reduction of poverty
Education

family planning
reproductive health care

empowering women
economic solutions—get people
out of poverty.
“failing states”- rapid population growth, extreme poverty and
environmental degradation leads to the government no longer
ensuring the personal security of their people and they can’t
provide basic services. Leads to people perpetually trapped in
poverty.
civil war and terrorism are common
low income, less developed
lack of skilled workers, financial capital
stuck in stage 2 of transition

ex. Somalia, Haiti

empowering women
women will have fewer children if they are educated, can
control their own fertility, and earn an income of their own
 Microloans for skilled trades (weaving, sewing, etc.) to earn
income

in many societies women have fewer rights and educational and
economic opportunities
 patriarchal societies (sons valued)--India

 women account for 66% of all hours worked but only 10% of
income earned (worldwide)
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family planning
 helps couples choose how many children to have and when to have
them
 educating men and women

 birth spacing, birth control, health care for women and infants
 the older a women is when she has her first child will decrease the total
number of children

 reduces number of pregnancies and abortions (major decrease in TFR)

 lack of access to services hinders efforts

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Problems with a growing
population
“graying of a population” (Japan)
Characteristic of highly developed countries
 Women choosing not to have children..pursue career instead
who will care for the elders?
 income to provide for social services
economic impacts (smaller workforce)
some countries providing incentives to have more children
(Europe)

may be balanced out with a large number of immigrants

Impacts
Developed and Developing countries have different impacts
 most of the world lives in developing countries, but developed
countries consume more resources
 ecological footprints and wealth gap
 Affluence

Measure Impact using IPAT equation

 Impact= population x affluence x technology

As a population grows resources need to be available to meet

the needs of the people
 land use (housing and agriculture)
 Sanitation and health care
 Access to clean water