Life has a lot of uncertainties.

Oftentimes, our decisions in

life are done under conditions
of uncertainty. These are the
probabilities of life.
PROBABILIT
Y
Probability can be defined as the mathematics of chance. Most people are
familiar with some aspects of probability by observing or playing
gambling games such as lotteries, slot machines, black jack, or roulette.
However, probability theory is used in many other areas such as business,
insurance, weather forecasting, and in everyday life.
In this chapter, you will learn about the basic concepts of probability
using various devices such as coins, cards, and dice. These devices are not
used as examples in order to make you an astute gambler, but they are
used because they will help you understand the concepts of probability.
BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY

4 in 5 chance

Even Chance

Certain Impossible 1 in 6 chance

What is Probability?

It is a branch of mathematics

that deals with uncertainty. It
is a measure or estimation of
how likely it is that an event
will occur
Unlocking of Terms

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Equally Likely Events Experiment

Impossible

Outcomes Dependent
Chance Independent Certain
Events
Events
Simple and Compound Events
 PROBABILITIES
  Three

Types of Probabilities:
1. Classical Probabilities defines the probability that an event will occur as :
Probability of an Event
; where x is the number of outcomes in one trial or event
N total number of possible outcomes of one trial.

Classical probability is often called a priori probability because if we keep

using orderly examples like fair coins, unbiased dice and standard deck of
cards, we can state the answer in advance (a priori) without performing the
activity or event. Instead, we can make statements based on logical reasoning
before any experiment can take place.
2. Relative Frequency of Occurrence/Empirical Probability
This method of probability uses frequency distributions, and it is
defined as the frequency of an event divided by the total number of
frequencies

3. Subjective Probabilities
 Are based on the beliefs of a person making the probability
assessment, educated guess, estimate, opinion or inexact
information. It can also be defined as the probability assigned to
an event by an individual, based on whatever evidence is available
Activity:
 1. A die is tossed; find the probability of each event : Getting a two b. Getting an
even number c. Getting a number less than 5
 2. A dish contains 8 red jellybeans, 5 yellow jellybeans, 3 black jellybeans, and 4
pink jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at random, find the probability that it is
a. A red jellybean b. A black or pink jellybean c. Not yellow d. An orange
jellybean
 3. Two coins are tossed. Find each probability: a. Getting two tails. b. Getting at
least one head. c. Getting two heads.
 4. A letter is randomly selected from the word ‘‘computer.’’ Find the probability
that the letter is a. A ‘‘t’’. b. An ‘‘o’’ or an ‘‘m’’. c. An ‘‘x’’. d. A vowel.
Imperical

 1. Using the frequency distribution shown previously, find the probability of selecting a
junior student at random.
 2. In a sample of 642 people over 25 years of age, 160 had a bachelor’s degree. If a person
over 25 years of age is selected, find the probability that the person has a bachelor’s
degree.
 3. In the sample study of 642 people, it was found that 514 people have a high school
diploma. If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the person does not
have a high school diploma.
 4. In a sample of 50 people, 19 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 7 had type B blood,
and 2 had type AB blood. If a person is selected at random, find the probability that the
person a. Has type A blood. b. Has type B or type AB blood. c. Does not have type O blood.
d. Has neither type A nor type O blood.
 5. In a recent survey of 356 children aged 19–24 months, it was found that 89 ate French
fries. If a child is selected at random, find the probability that he or she eats French fries.
Sample Space
 Tree Diagrams
A tree diagram consists of branches corresponding to the outcomes of two or
more probability experiments that are done in sequence. In order to
construct a tree diagram, use branches corresponding to the outcomes of
the first experiment. These branches will emanate from a single point. Then
from each branch of the first experiment draw branches that represent the
outcomes of the second experiment. You can continue the process for
further experiments of the sequence if necessary.
1. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Draw a tree diagram and find the
sample space.
2. Three coins are tossed. Draw a tree diagram and find the sample space.
Sample Space
Probability Rules
 Rule 1: The probability of any event will always be a number
from zero to one.
 Rule 2: When an event cannot occur, the probability will be
zero.
 Rule 3: When an event is certain to occur, the probability is 1.
 Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities of all of the outcomes in
the sample space is 1
 Rule5: The probability that an event will not occur is equal to 1
minus the probability that the event will occur.
 Formula:

P(event) = Number of favorable

outcomes/Number of all possible
outcomes
Possible Problems:
1. What is the probability of getting a HEART
from a deck of cards?
2. There are 20 marbles in a container: 4 red, 5
are blue, and 11 are yellow. What is the
probability that the blue marble will be picked?
2. Of the 45 students in a class, 25 are boys. If a
student is selected at random for a field trip,
what is the probability of selecting a girl?
EXAMPLE # 1 Topic: Probabilities
A family has three children, what is the probability that
a.) Three are girls
b.) Three are boys
c.) Two are girls
d.) First child is a boy
e.) Last child is a boy
f.) The first child is a girl
g.) Middle child is a girl
h.) Middle child is a boy
Note: You can illustrate the possible outcomes through three
diagram
TREE DIAGRAM
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G

G BGG

B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G

G GGG
 The Additive Rules (rules of “or”:

1. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B)
In this rule, an immediate result of A and B that are
mutually exclusive, A Ո B =Փ
If A1, A2, A3,…are mutually exclusive events, then
P(A1 U A2 U A3 U AN…)= over all sum.
2. If A and B are any two events, (non mutually exclusive), then
P(A U B)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A Ո B)
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE AND NON MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Activity: Identify a mutually exclusive events and a non-mutually

exclusive events
Example: Selecting a queen or a king
Selecting a king or a diamond

 Which of these events are mutually exclusive?

a. Selecting a card at random from a deck and getting an ace or a club
b. Rolling a die and getting an odd number or a number less than 4
c. Rolling two dice and getting a sum of 7 or 11
d. Selecting a student at random who is full-time or part-time
e. Selecting a student who is a female or a junior
 
Example:
1. Using the same experiment in previous example, what is
the probability of drawing a face or an ace card.
Solution:
The sample space of this experiment consists of 52 sample
points. Let A be the event that a face card is drawn and B be
the event that an ace occurs. There are 12 sample points for
event A and 4 sample points for event B. Since it is mutually
exclusive event, the probability of A or B written as
P (A U B)= P(A) +P(B)
=
P(A U B) =
 Example:
2. Consider the experiment drawing a card on a deck of 52
playing cards. What is the probability of drawing a red or a face
card?
Solution:
Let A be the event that a red card occurs and B the event that
a face card occurs. There are 26 sample points for red card and
12 sample points for face card. Since A and B are non- mutually
exclusive,
P(A U B) = P (A) + P(B)- P(A Ո B)
=
P(A U B)=
  
Example:
3. What is the probability of drawing a heart card or a black card
or the ace of diamonds?
Solution:
Let A be the event of heart card, B be the event of black card
and C be the event of drawing the ace of diamonds. Since the
events are mutually exclusive event, then
P(A U B U C)= P(A) +P(B) + P(C)
=
P(A U B U C) =
Activity :
1. Consider a problem of finding the probability
of observing even number of a single toss of a
die. A will occur if one of the three simple
events, toss a 2, 4, or 6 occurs. Since two or
more simple events cannot occur at the same
time, we can easily calculate the probability of
an event A summing the probabilities of the
three single events.
 The Multiplication Rules (the rules of “and”)
Definition of Terms:
Independent Events. Two events A and B are independent if either
P(A/B)= P(A). Otherwise, A and B are dependent. It states that two
events are considered to be independent events if the occurrence or
non- occurrence of one has no influence on the occurrence or non
occurrence of the other
The condition P(B/A)=P(B) implies that P(A/B)= P(A) conversely. In the
card drawing experiment with replacement where we showed that
P(B/A)=P(B), we can see that P(A/B)=P(A)
Multiplication Rule 1:
If A and B are independent events, then P(A Ո B)= P(A).P(B)
Multiplication Rule II:
When two events are dependent, the probability of both events
occurring is P(A and B)= P(A). P(B/A)
 Example:
 1. An urn contains 2 red balls, 3 green balls, and 5 blue balls. A ball is selected at
random and its color is noted. Then it is replaced and another ball is selected and
its color is noted. Find the probability of each of these:
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting a blue ball and then a red ball
c. Selecting a green ball and then a blue ball
  Conditional Probability
Definition:
Let A and B be events such that P(A) ≠ 0. the conditional probability of B,
given A, denoted by P(B/A), is given by
P(B/A)=

 
Example


A single fair die is rolled once. Let B denote the event that the number obtained is
less than 4; let A denote the event that an odd number is appear. The sample space of
this experiment will be:
S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Based on the definition, let us compute P(B/A) keeping in mind that all probabilities
are computed relative to sample space S.
P(B/A)=
P(B/A)=
 Activity:
As
   additional illustration, suppose that our sample space is the population of adults who
an
have completed the requirements for Bussiness Administration course. We shall categorize
them according to sex and employment status
Employment Employed Unemployed Total
Status
Sex
Male 250 50 300
Female 150 30 180
Total 400 80 480

One of these individuals is to be selected at random for an interview of a current issue in a

certain country on a television program. We shall be concerned of the following events
F: a female is chosen
E: the chosen one is employed
P(F/E)=
Thank you for
WAITING!!!