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Probability Distribution

1. The document discusses discrete and continuous probability distributions, focusing on discrete distributions like binomial and Poisson. 2. Discrete distributions take on distinct, countable values while continuous distributions result from measuring quantities. 3. The document provides examples of calculating mean, variance, and probability using binomial and Poisson distributions for problems involving coin tosses, customer purchases, and wait times.

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Readoan Khan
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486 views

Probability Distribution

1. The document discusses discrete and continuous probability distributions, focusing on discrete distributions like binomial and Poisson. 2. Discrete distributions take on distinct, countable values while continuous distributions result from measuring quantities. 3. The document provides examples of calculating mean, variance, and probability using binomial and Poisson distributions for problems involving coin tosses, customer purchases, and wait times.

Uploaded by

Readoan Khan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Discrete Probability Distributions

Probability Distribution

A listing of all possible outcomes of an experiment and the


corresponding probability.

Random variable
A numerical value determined by the outcome of an
experiment.
Types of Probability Distributions

A Discrete distribution is A Continuous distribution


based on random usually results from
variables which can measuring something.
assume only clearly
separated values.

Discrete distributions Continuous distributions


studied include: include:
o Binomial o Uniform
o Poisson o Normal
o Hypergeometric o Others
Discrete Probability Distribution

Features of a Discrete Probability Distribution

The sum of the The outcomes The probability of


probabilities of the are mutually a particular
various outcomes is exclusive. outcome is between
1.00. 0 and 1.00.
Mean
 The long-run average value of the random variable

 The central location of the data

 A weighted average

 Also referred to as its expected value, E(X), in a


probability distribution

  [ xP ( x )]
Variance

 Measures the amount of spread (variation) of a distribution

 Denoted by the Greek letter  2


(sigma squared)

  [( x   ) P ( x)]
2 2

 Standard deviation is the square root of  .


2

   x    2

P ( x )
Example#1
Consider a random experiment in which a coin is tossed three
times. Let x be the number of heads. Let H represent the
outcome of a head and T the outcome of a tail. The possible
values of x (number of heads) are 0,1,2,3

Outcome No of Heads a. Convert this information on the


TTT 0 number of heads appear to a
TTH 1 probability distribution.
THT 1 b. Is this an example of a discrete or
THH 2 continuous probability distribution?
HTT 1 c. What is the mean number of Heads
HTH 2 appear?
HHT 2 d. What is the standard deviation of
HHH 3 the number of heads appear?
Solution
No of Heads (x) Occurrence Probability P(x)

0 1 1/8=0.125
1 3 3/8=0.375
2 3 3/8=0.375
3 1 1/8=0.125
Mean,   [ xP( x)]
= 0X0.125+1X0.375+2X0.375+3X0.125
= 1.50

Standard deviation,    x    2

P ( x)

=√(0-1.5)2X0.125+ (1-1.5)2X0.375 + (2-1.5)2X0.375 + (3-1.5)2X0.125

=0.281+0.094+0.094+0.281

= 0.866
Example#2
The information below is the number of daily emergency service calls
made by the volunteer ambulance service of Walterboro, South
Carolina, for the last 50 days. To explain, there were 22 days on which
there were 2 emergency calls, and 9 days on which there were 3
emergency calls.

a. Convert this information on the number of calls to a probability


distribution.
b. Is this an example of a discrete or continuous probability
distribution?
c. What is the mean number of emergency calls per day?
d. What is the standard deviation of the number of calls made daily?
Binomial Probability Distribution
 An outcome of an experiment is classified into one of two
mutually exclusive categories, such as a success or failure.
 The data collected are the results of counts.
 The probability of success stays the same for each trial.
 The trials are independent.
nx n!
P(x) n C x π (1  π)
x
n Cx  x!(n-x)!
Where,
n is the number of trials
x is the number of observed successes
p is the probability of success on each trial
 is the probability of success in each trial
Mean of the Binomial Distribution

  n

Variance of the Binomial Distribution

  n (1   )
2
Example#3

Harry Ohme is in charge of the electronics section of a large


department store. He has noticed that the probability that a
customer who is just browsing will buy something is 0.3. Suppose
that 15 customers browse in the electronics section each hour.

a.What is the probability that at least one browsing customer will


buy something during a specified hour?
b.What is the probability that at least four browsing customers will
buy something during a specified hour?
c.What is the probability that no browsing customers will buy
anything during a specified hour?
d.What is the probability that no more than four browsing
customers will buy something during a specified hour?
Solution
For binomial distribution P(x) n C x π x (1  π) n  x
Example#4

A recent study conducted by Penn, Shone, and Borland, on behalf


of LastMinute.com, revealed that 52 percent of business travelers
plan their trips less than two weeks before departure. The study is
to be replicated in the tri-state area with a sample of 12 frequent
travelers.

a. Find the mean and the standard deviation of this distribution


b.What is the probability that exactly 5 of the 12 selected business
travelers plan their trips within two weeks of departure?
c.What is the probability 5 or fewer of the 12 selected business
travelers plan their trips within two weeks of departure?
d. What is the probability more than 3 selected business travelers
plan their trips within two weeks of departure?
Poisson Probability Distribution
 The number of times some event occurs during a specified
interval.
 The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the
interval.
 The intervals do not overlap and are independent.

x μ
μ e
P(x) 
x!
Where,
µ is the mean number of successes in a particular interval of time
e is the constant 2.71828
x is the number of successes
Mean of the Poisson Distribution
n
Where,
n is the number of trials
p the probability of a success

Variance of the Poisson Distribution

σ 2  nπ
Example#5

A study of the checkout lines at the Safeway Supermarket in the


South Strand area revealed that between 4 and 7 pm on weekdays
there is an average of four customers waiting in line. What is the
probability that you visit Safeway today during this period and
find:

a.No customers are waiting?


b.Four customers are waiting?
c.Four or fewer are waiting?
d.Four or more are waiting?
Solution
μ x e μ
For Poisson Distribution P(x) 
x!
d. P(≥4) = 1 –{P(0)+P(1)++P(2)+P(3)}
= 1 – 0.4333
= 0.5667
Example#6

An internal study at Lahey Electronics, a large software


development company, revealed the mean time for an internet e-
mail message to arrive at its destination was 2 seconds.

a.What is the probability a message takes 1 or less second to arrive


at its destination?
b.What is the probability it takes more than 4 seconds to arrive at
its destination?
c.What is the probability it takes virtually no time, i.e., “zero’
seconds?

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