0% found this document useful (0 votes)
648 views31 pages

Probit Analysis

The document discusses various concepts relating to toxicity testing, including: 1) The shape of the dose-response curve and factors that influence it, such as whether the curve is linear or sigmoidal. 2) The concept of LC50, which is the lethal concentration required to kill 50% of test subjects. 3) Key aspects of designing an acute toxicity test, such as selecting the test organism, exposure method, experimental design, and endpoints to measure. 4) The process of probit analysis, which allows more accurate estimation of toxicity values like LC50 and determination of their confidence intervals.

Uploaded by

Kat Buenaflor
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
648 views31 pages

Probit Analysis

The document discusses various concepts relating to toxicity testing, including: 1) The shape of the dose-response curve and factors that influence it, such as whether the curve is linear or sigmoidal. 2) The concept of LC50, which is the lethal concentration required to kill 50% of test subjects. 3) Key aspects of designing an acute toxicity test, such as selecting the test organism, exposure method, experimental design, and endpoints to measure. 4) The process of probit analysis, which allows more accurate estimation of toxicity values like LC50 and determination of their confidence intervals.

Uploaded by

Kat Buenaflor
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 31

Toxicity Testing cont’d

• Toxicology is Easy - Discussion


• Shape of Dose-Response Curve
– Linear vs Sigmoid
– Steep vs Flat
• Why LC50?
• Acute Toxicity Test Design
• Probit Analysis
Shape of the Dose-Response Relationship
Why LC50?
100%
Response

0%

Low High
Concentration (or Dose)
Acute Toxicity Test Design
1. Test Material (toxicant)
• Pure
• Commercial formulation
• Mixtures of known concentration
• Carriers/solvents
• Unknown mixtures (eg. sediment,effluent)
2. Test Organism
• Most sensitive Ex: Daphnia
• Most representative Fathead minnows
• Wild species Rats/Mice
• Rear in lab Animal Cell cultures
• Known physiology Algal cell cultures

• Bred for uniformity Duckweed


Mealworms
• Certified disease free
Earthworms
• Known susceptible
Frogs/tadpoles
strain
3. Exposure Method/Apparatus

• Oral dose/gavage
• Diet
• Intraperitoneal injection
• Inhalant
• Dermal
• Dry vial
• Static vs Flow-thru aquaria
4. Experimental Design

• Sample size
• Unbiased allocation of subjects
• Test environment (temp, 02, pH, light cycle, food, etc)
• Negative controls (untreated, solvent/carrier)
• Positive controls (toxin with well known effect)
• Baseline measurements (size, test envt, etc)
5. Range-Finding Test

• 10X progression of toxin concentration


• 3-5 individuals per concentration
• 5 concentrations plus control(s)
6. Definitive Test

• Expand on meaningful conc. From range test


• 5+ conc. Plus control(s)
• Geometric progression of conc. (2X or higher)
• 1 conc. Kills < 35%; 1 conc. Kills > 65%
• 10+ individuals per concentration
• Replicates?
• 96h, no food
7. Endpoint (what response to measure?)

• Death (LC50, LD50)


• Paralysis, loss of equilibrium (EC50)
• Other sub-lethal endpoints (EC50)

Pop. growth rate Bone formation


Indiv. growth rate Protein production
Foraging behavior Enzyme activity
Escape behavior Chromosome breakage
Learning/cognitive RNA synthesis
8. Calculations
•Plot %mortality vs log conc. (or dose)
•Do not include control data in curve fit
•If control mortality exceeds 10%, correct
w/ Abbotts formula
•Do probit analysis for accurate LC50
•Calc. 95% confidence intervals
(Lindane)

Diff. toxicity to diff. spp.


Diff. Toxicity via diff routes of exposure – why?
Yikes! – those are
my tax dollars!

What about
transgenerational
effects??
Scale of Toxicological Endpoints

Increasing reality
Increasing cost
Increasing uncertainty
Probit Analysis
• Turn a curve into a line
Can connect dots more accurately
Allows accurate “inverse prediction”
Allows statistical analysis using regression/linear models

• Probit = probability unit


% of population responding as a function of standard deviation units from the
mean
No. of Individuals Tolerance

No. of Individuals
Concentration Log of Concentration

Dose-Response
Cumulative Percent

Cumulative Percent

Concentration Log of Concentration


Result = ‘nearly’ straight line
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units

1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?

2. Express % from above


as cumulative percent.

3. Assign probits to
cumulative %.
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units

1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?

2.5 13.3 34.2 34.2 13.3 2.5

2. Express % from above


as cumulative percent.

3. Assign probits to
cumulative %.
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units

1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?

2.5 13.3 34.2 34.2 13.3 2.5

2. Express % from above


as cumulative percent.
2.5 15.8 84.2 97.5

3. Assign probits to
cumulative %.
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units

1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?

2.5 13.3 34.2 34.2 13.3 2.5

2. Express % from above


as cumulative percent.
2.5
2.5 15.8 84.2 97.5

3. Assign probits to
2.5 15.8 84.2 97.5
cumulative %.
Log Probit
1.009 6.18

6.18

1.009
“Inverse Prediction”

Log LC84= 0.93; LC84= 8.51


Log LC16 = 0.43; LC16 = 2.69
Log LC50 = 0.68; LC50 = 4.79

Why calc. 95% C.L.? How?


Calculating 95% Confidence Limits of LC50's
(source: F. Matsumura. 1985. Toxicology of Insecticides, 2nd Ed., Plenum, pp.14-
16)
Example Worksheet - Rotenone toxicity to Macrosphoniella sanborni

1. Use inverse prediction from the graph to estimate the Log 10 of the LC84, LC16,
and LC50 then “un-log” the values and express as mg/L.
Log10 Conc. Conc.(mg/L)
eg: LC84 =
LC16 =
LC50 =

2. Calculate S and Log10 (S) (use the 'un-logged' dose/conc. values).

LC84 LC50
S = LC50 __ LC16
2
S= Log10 (S) =
Calculating 95% Confidence Limits of LC50's
(source: F. Matsumura. 1985. Toxicology of Insecticides, 2nd Ed., Plenum, pp.14-
16)
Example Worksheet - Rotenone toxicity to Macrosphoniella sanborni

1. Use inverse prediction from the graph to estimate the Log 10 of the LC84, LC16,
and LC50 then “un-log” the values and express as mg/L.
Log10 Conc. Conc. (mg/L)
eg: LC84 = .93 8.51
LC16 = .43 2.69
LC50 = .68 4.79

2. Calculate S and Log10 (S) (use the 'un-logged' dose/conc. values).


+ +
LC84 LC50 8.51 4.79
S = LC50 __ LC16 4.79 2.69
2 2
S= 1.78 Log10 (S) = 0.250
3. Determine N
N = the total number of individuals tested between the range of dosages that
correspond to the LC16 to the LC84.

N=

4. Calculate Log10(f) and f.


2.77
Log10(f) = √N x Log10 (S)

Log10(f) = f=

5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):

Upper Limit = LC50 x f =

Lower Limit = LC50 / f =


3. Determine N
N = the total number of individuals tested between the range of dosages that
correspond to the LC16 to the LC84.

N = 49 + 46 + 48 = 143

4. Calculate Log10(f) and f.


2.77
Log10(f) = √ N x Log10 (S) =

Log10(f) = f=

5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):

Upper Limit = LC50 x f =

Lower Limit = LC50 / f =


3. Determine N
N = the total number of individuals tested between the range of dosages that
correspond to the LC16 to the LC84.

N = 49 + 46 + 48 = 143

4. Calculate Log10(f) and f.


2.77 2.77
=
Log10(f) = √ N x Log10 (S) √ 143 x 0.250

Log10(f) = 0.058 f = 1.143

5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):

Upper Limit = LC50 x f =

Lower Limit = LC50 / f =


3. Determine N
N = the total number of individuals tested between the range of dosages that
correspond to the LC16 to the LC84.

N = 49 + 46 + 48 = 143

4. Calculate Log10(f) and f.


2.77 2.77
=
Log10(f) = √ N x Log10 (S) √ 143 x 0.250

Log10(f) = 0.058 f = 1.143

5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):

Upper Limit = LC50 x f = 4.79 x 1.143 = 5.47

Lower Limit = LC50 / f = 4.79 / 1.143 = 4.19

LC50 = 4.79 mg/L (4.19 – 5.47; 95% C.L.)


Log scale

You might also like