Probit Analysis
Probit Analysis
0%
Low High
Concentration (or Dose)
Acute Toxicity Test Design
1. Test Material (toxicant)
• Pure
• Commercial formulation
• Mixtures of known concentration
• Carriers/solvents
• Unknown mixtures (eg. sediment,effluent)
2. Test Organism
• Most sensitive Ex: Daphnia
• Most representative Fathead minnows
• Wild species Rats/Mice
• Rear in lab Animal Cell cultures
• Known physiology Algal cell cultures
• Oral dose/gavage
• Diet
• Intraperitoneal injection
• Inhalant
• Dermal
• Dry vial
• Static vs Flow-thru aquaria
4. Experimental Design
• Sample size
• Unbiased allocation of subjects
• Test environment (temp, 02, pH, light cycle, food, etc)
• Negative controls (untreated, solvent/carrier)
• Positive controls (toxin with well known effect)
• Baseline measurements (size, test envt, etc)
5. Range-Finding Test
What about
transgenerational
effects??
Scale of Toxicological Endpoints
Increasing reality
Increasing cost
Increasing uncertainty
Probit Analysis
• Turn a curve into a line
Can connect dots more accurately
Allows accurate “inverse prediction”
Allows statistical analysis using regression/linear models
No. of Individuals
Concentration Log of Concentration
Dose-Response
Cumulative Percent
Cumulative Percent
1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?
3. Assign probits to
cumulative %.
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units
1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?
3. Assign probits to
cumulative %.
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units
1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?
3. Assign probits to
cumulative %.
50%
Mean
Normal Distribution Std Dev Units
1. What % of observations
fall with each SD unit?
3. Assign probits to
2.5 15.8 84.2 97.5
cumulative %.
Log Probit
1.009 6.18
6.18
1.009
“Inverse Prediction”
1. Use inverse prediction from the graph to estimate the Log 10 of the LC84, LC16,
and LC50 then “un-log” the values and express as mg/L.
Log10 Conc. Conc.(mg/L)
eg: LC84 =
LC16 =
LC50 =
LC84 LC50
S = LC50 __ LC16
2
S= Log10 (S) =
Calculating 95% Confidence Limits of LC50's
(source: F. Matsumura. 1985. Toxicology of Insecticides, 2nd Ed., Plenum, pp.14-
16)
Example Worksheet - Rotenone toxicity to Macrosphoniella sanborni
1. Use inverse prediction from the graph to estimate the Log 10 of the LC84, LC16,
and LC50 then “un-log” the values and express as mg/L.
Log10 Conc. Conc. (mg/L)
eg: LC84 = .93 8.51
LC16 = .43 2.69
LC50 = .68 4.79
N=
Log10(f) = f=
5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):
N = 49 + 46 + 48 = 143
Log10(f) = f=
5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):
N = 49 + 46 + 48 = 143
5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):
N = 49 + 46 + 48 = 143
5. Calculate Upper and Lower 95% Confidence Limits (multiply or divide 'unlogged'
conc/dose values by f):