Forward Planning For Coal Business

Forward Planning Model
Coal Business
Contents :
• Coal Business
• Company Profile
• Forward Planning Model
• Pairwise Calculation (Super Decision)
• Conclusion and Suggestion
Coal Business
Thermal Coal Demand and Supply (Global)
Coal Business
Indonesia Coal Sales (Domestic vs Export)
Indonesia Coal Sales :

• Domestic
• China
• India
• East Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan)
• South East Asia (Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand)
Coal Business
Domestic (Indonesia) Coal Demand
Remark :
• Coal domestic demand are growing until 2027
• Coal is the biggest energy source for electricity
• Coal is one of the cheap energy sources
Coal Business
• Projected scenario : Future coal mining business (5Y)
• Assumption :
• Based on report released in 2019 (actual 2018)
• Future 3-5 years
• No Corona Virus impact
• Trend - Coal Market :
• Domestic
• Export (China, India, East Asia, South East Asia)
• Trend - energy policy (impact to price and demand) :
• Cheap energy
• Clean energy
• Renewable energy
• Uncertainty
• Government policy
• Divestment in coal business
Trend and Uncertainty Model
Projected
Future coal mining business (5Y) Scenarios
Market Trend Uncertainty

(T) (U)
Domestic China India East Asia SE Asia
Cheap Energy Clean Energy Renewable Energy Government Policy Divestment

(T1) (T2) (T3) (U1) (U2)
Remark :
• T1 : Cheap energy maintain commodity price (+)
• T2 : Clean energy lead to demand and price downtrend (- -)
• T3 : Renewable energy lead to demand and price downtrend (- -)
• U1 : Government policy (carbon incentives and CCoW contract) tends to higher mining cost (-)
• U2 : Financial institution divestment in coal business tends to higher financing cost (-)
Scenario Model
Projected Projected
Scenarios
Market Trend Uncertainty

(T) (U)
Trend and
Uncertainty
Cheap Energy Clean Energy Renewable Energy Government Policy Divestment
(T1) (T2) (T3) (U1) (U2)
Scenarios Efficiency Clean and Green New Business Model Compliance

(S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
Remark : Trend /
Scenari T1 T2 T3 U1 U2
• Efficiency (S1) : improve productivity and reduce waste (+) o
• Clean and Green mining operation (S2) : reduce carbon and dust, better coal getting and handing (+) S1 x x x x
S2 x x x x
• New business (S3) : low-capex mining, fuel trading, coal post-process, power-plant (++)
S3 x x x x x
• Compliance (S4) : clean and clear (CnC) and financial covenants (+) S4 x x
Capability Model
Projected Projected
Scenarios
Trend and Cheap Energy Clean Energy Renewable Energy Government Policy Divestment
Uncertainty (T1) (T2) (T3) (U1) (U2)
Scenarios Efficiency Clean and Green New Business Model Compliance

(S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
Capability Cost Leadership Operation Excellence Competency and Integrated Energy Reputation
(C1) (C2) Experience (C3) Business (C4) (C4)
Remark : Scenario / S1 S2 S3 S4
Capability
• Cost leadership (C1) : competitive advantage by having the lowest cost of operation in the industry,
C1 x x
driven by efficiency, size, scale, scope and learning (+)
C2 x x x x
• Operation excellence (C2) : execution of the business strategy more consistently and reliably (+)
C3 x x x
• Competency (C3) : combination of multiple resources and skills that distinguish in the market (+) C4 x x x x
• Integrated business (C4) : having upstream to downstream of coal business (+) C5 x x
• Reputation (C5) : attracting new business and opportunities (+)

Competitiveness Model
Cost Leadership Operation Excellence Competency and Integrated Energy Reputation

Capability (C1) (C2) Experience (C3) Business (C4) (C4)
COGS : Mining Operation : Company : Holding : Company :

1. Mining Ops. 1. Mine plan 1. 48 yrs. experience 1. Coal concession 1. IDX Listed comp.
2. Repair & Maint. 2. Pit to Port Ops. 2. Multi disciplinary 2. Contractors 2. ISO Certification
3. Manpower 3. Digital Apps • Contract Mining 3. Coal Shipment 3. GCG Company
4. SHE Standard • Equipment hire 4. Coal Trading 4. Investors trust
5. Cont. improve. • Eng. & Construct. 5. Coal Terminal 5. Sustain business
Competitive • Oil & Gas Service 6. Power Plant
3. Clients 7. EPC Business
Yes No
Company
+ + ++ +++ ++
Strength

Forward Planning For Coal Business

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Forward Planning Model

Indonesia Coal Sales :

Market Trend Uncertainty

Domestic China India East Asia SE Asia

Cheap Energy Clean Energy Renewable Energy Government Policy Divestment

Market Trend Uncertainty

Scenarios Efficiency Clean and Green New Business Model Compliance

Scenarios Efficiency Clean and Green New Business Model Compliance

• Integrated business (C4) : having upstream to downstream of coal business (+) C5 x x

• Reputation (C5) : attracting new business and opportunities (+)

Cost Leadership Operation Excellence Competency and Integrated Energy Reputation

COGS : Mining Operation : Company : Holding : Company :

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