ECE 603

Probability and Random

Processes
Lesson 4
Chapter 2
Counting Methods

Chapter
© 2020 UMass2 Amherst Global. All rights reserved. © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.
Objectives
• Examine counting as a result of the multiplication principle.
• Apply the basic introductions of the material to probability.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

2
Rationale
• Counting is necessary for solving some probability problems. This lesson
will focus on methods for counting elements in an efficient manner.
• Almost everything you need to know about counting comes from the
multiplication principle.
• This lesson will take what you previously reviewed about the Cartesian
viewpoint and explore a different perspective.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

3
Prior Learning
• Basic Concepts
• Access to the online textbook: https://www.probabilitycourse.com/

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

4
Counting Methods
For a finite sample space with equally likely outcomes, the probability of an
event is given by

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

5
Counting Methods
Multiplication Principle:
If we are to perform experiments in order such that there are possible
outcomes of the first experiment, possible outcomes of the second
experiment, … , possible outcomes of the experiment, then there is a
total of outcomes of the sequence of the
experiments.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

6
Counting Methods
Example:
A college planning committee consists of 3 freshmen, 4 sophomores, 5 juniors,
and 2 Seniors. A subcommittee of one person from each class is to be chosen.
How many different subcommittees are possible?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

7
Counting Methods
 Drawing (choosing) objects from a set is referred
to as sampling.
 We will often draw multiple samples from a set. If we put the object back
after each draw, this is called sampling with replacement; if not it is called
sampling without replacement.
 The result of drawing multiple samples can be ordered (order of draws
matters; ) or unordered ( ).

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

8
Counting Methods
General scenario:
We have a set of elements, e.g. , and we draw
samples from the set:

With replacement

Ordered
Without replacement

Sampling
Without replacement

Unordered
With replacement

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

9
Counting Methods
Remember:

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

10
Counting Methods
For
1) Ordered Sampling with Replacement (repetition allowed)

Possibilities

In general:

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

11
Orchestrated Conversation:
Counting Methods
Example:
How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 3 places are to
be occupied by letters and the final 4 by numbers?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

12
Counting Methods
2) Ordered Sampling without Replacement (repetition not allowed)

Possibilities
In general:

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

13
Counting Methods
Number of -permutations of -objects:

The number of -permutations of distinguishable objects is given by

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

14
Orchestrated Conversation:
Counting Methods
Example:
(Birthday Paradox) In a group of people, what is the probability that at least
two have the same birthday?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

15
Counting Methods
Sample of size from
With replacement

Ordered
Without replacement

Sampling
Without replacement

Unordered
With replacement

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

16
Counting Methods
Unordered Sampling without Replacement (Combinations):
There are distinguishable objects; we want to choose objects, but ordering
does not matter:
Let and then
possibilities

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

17
Counting Methods
In general:
# of ways to choose elements from elements (Unordered):
-Combinations

If ordered:

If unordered:

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

18
Counting Methods
Thus the number of -combinations of objects is:

The number of ways to choose objects out of distinguishable objects is

equal to

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

19
Counting Methods
Example.
The number of five-card poker hands is

The number of -combinations of an -element set is given by

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

20
Orchestrated Conversation:
Counting Methods
Example.
A committee of 5 is to be selected from a group of 6 men and 9 women. If the
selection is made randomly, what is the probability that the committee consists
of 3 men and 2 women?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

21
Orchestrated Conversation:
Counting Methods
Another interpretation of

• The number of possible divisions of n distinct objects to two groups of sets of

sizes and is also equal to

Example: We toss a coin 5 times and observe the sequence of heads and tails.
How many different outcomes are possible if we know two tails and three
heads have been observed?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

22
Counting Methods
• The number of observation sequences for sub-experiments with the sample
space with 0 appearing times and 1 appearing

times is

Example. How many distinct sequences can we make using 3 As and 5 Bs?
(AAABBBBB, AABABBBB, ….)

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

23
Orchestrated Conversation:
Counting Methods

Example. We toss a coin times and observe the sequence of heads and tails.
How many different outcomes are possible if we know tails and
heads have been observed?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

24
Counting Methods
Multinomial Coefficients: More generally if we
define

is the number of possible divisions of distinct objects into

distinct groups of respective sizes

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

25
Counting Methods
Theorem. For repetitions of sub-experiment with sample space

the number of length observation sequences

with appearing times is

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

26
Counting Methods
Bernoulli Trials:
Example. We toss an unfair coin ( ) times. What is the
probability of observing heads?

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

27
Counting Methods
Binomial Formula:
For independent Bernoulli trials where each trial has success probability
the probability of successes is given by

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

28
Counting Methods
Generally, assume the sub-experiment has sample space
with For independent trials,
the probability that appears times for all is

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

29
Counting Methods
Unordered Sampling with Replacement (repetition allowed):
Example:

Cases.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

30
Counting Methods
Lemma.
The total number of distinct samples from an -element set such that
repetition is allowed and ordering does not matter is the same as the number
of distinct solutions to the equation

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

31
Review
Let's summarize the formulas for the four categories of sampling.

ordered sampling with replacement

ordered sampling without replacement

unordered sampling without replacement

unordered sampling with replacement

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

32
Summary of this Lesson
• You examined the necessity of counting for solving some
probability problems. You also focused on methods for counting
elements in an efficient manner.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

33
Post-work for this Lesson
• Complete the homework assignment for Lesson 4: HW#2

Go to the online classroom for details.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

34
To Prepare for the Next Lesson
• Read Chapter 3 in your online textbook:
https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter3/3_1_1_random_variables.php
• Complete the Pre-work for Lessons 5-6.

Visit the online classroom for details.

Chapter 2 © 2020 UMass Amherst Global. All rights reserved.

35