Sampling Distribution

and Estimation
Dr. M. Shafiqur Rahman

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
 TWO APPROACHES OF STATISTICS

 1)Descriptive Statistics consists of methods for

organizing, displaying, and describing data by
using tables, graphs, and summary measures.

 2)Inferential Statistics consists of

methods that use sample results to help
make decisions or predictions about a
population.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 8/E

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Figure 1.1 Population and Sample

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 8/E

Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons. All rights reserved.
 SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTIONS

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Sampling Distribution

Definition
The probability distribution of x is called its
sampling distribution.
In general, the probability distribution of a
sample statistic is called its sampling
distribution.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Sampling Distribution
 Cconsider the population of following
midterm scores of five students...
70, 78, 80, 80, 95
 Consider all possible samples of three
scores each that can be selected, without
replacement, from that population.
 Identify the Mean, Frequency and the
Probability distribution of x .

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Sampling Distribution
The total number of possible samples is

5! 5  4  3  2 1
5 C3    10
3!(5  3)! 3  2  1  2  1
 Suppose we assign the letters A, B, C, D, and E to the
scores of the five students so that
 A = 70, B = 78, C = 80, D = 80, E = 95
 Then, the 10 possible samples of three scores each are
 ABC, ABD, ABE, ACD, ACE,
ADE, BCD, BCE, BDE, CDE

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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Table - All Possible Samples and Their Means
When the Sample Size Is 3

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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Table - Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions of x When the Sample Size Is 3

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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Table - Sampling Distribution of x When the
Sample Size Is 3

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
SAMPLING ERROR

Definition
Sampling error is the difference between
the value of a sample statistic and the value
of the corresponding population parameter.
In the case of the mean,
Sampling error = x  
assuming that the sample is random and no
nonsampling error has been made.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example

 Reconsider the population of five scores

given in Table. Suppose one sample of three
scores is selected from this population, and
this sample includes the scores 70, 80, and
95. Find the sampling error.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Solution
70  78  80  80  95
  80.60
5
70  80  95
x  81.67
3
Sampling error  x    81.67  80.60  1.07

That is, the mean score estimated from the

sample is 1.07 higher than the mean score
of the population.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF x

 Definition
 The mean and standard deviation of the
sampling distribution of x are called the
mean and standard deviation of x and
are denoted by  x and  x , respectively.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF x
 Mean of the Sampling Distribution of x
 Themean of the sampling
distribution of x is always equal to the
mean of the population. Thus,

x  

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF x
 Standard Deviation of the Sampling Distribution
of x
 The standard deviation of the sampling
distribution of x is

x 
n
 where σ is the standard deviation of the
population and n is the sample size. This formula
is used when n /N ≤ .05, where N is the
population size.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
SHAPE OF THE SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF x

 The population from which samples are

drawn has a normal distribution.
 The population from which samples are
drawn does not have a normal
distribution.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure : Population distribution and sampling
distributions ofx .

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example
 In a recent SAT, the mean score for all
examinees was 1020. Assume that the
distribution of SAT scores of all examinees is
normal with the mean of 1020 and a standard
deviation of 153. Let x be the mean SAT score
of a random sample of certain examinees.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of x
and describe the shape of its sampling
distribution when the sample size is
 (a) 16 (b) 50 (c) 1000

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure

Prem Mann, ntroductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure: Population distribution and sampling
distributions ofx : Central Limit Theorem.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example

 The mean rent paid by all tenants in a small city

is $1550 with a standard deviation of $225.
However, the population distribution of rents for
all tenants in this city is skewed to the right.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of x
and describe the shape of its sampling
distribution when the sample size is
 (a) 30 (b) 100

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
APPLICATIONS OF THE SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION OF x

1. If we take all possible samples of the

same (large) size from a population and
calculate the mean for each of these
samples, then about a) 68% b) 95% c)
99% of the sample means will be within
1SD, 2SD, 3SD of the population mean.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure: a) 68% b) 95% c) 99% area

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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ESTIMATION OF THE
MEAN AND
PROPORTION

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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ESTIMATION: AN INTRODUCTION

Definition
The assignment of value(s) to a population
parameter based on a value of the
corresponding sample statistic is called
estimation.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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ESTIMATION: AN INTRODUCTION
The estimation procedure involves the
following steps.

 Select a sample.
 Collect the required information from the
members of the sample.
 Calculate the value of the sample statistic.
 Assign value(s) to the corresponding
population parameter.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Point and Interval Estimate

 A Point Estimate
 An Interval Estimate

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

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 Definition

1. The value of a sample statistic that is

used to estimate a population parameter
is called a point estimate.
2. In interval estimation, an interval is
constructed around the point estimate,
and it is stated that this interval is likely
to contain the corresponding population
parameter.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure : Interval estimation.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Estimation of population mean
A publishing company has just published a new
college textbook. Before the company decides the
price at which to sell this textbook, it wants to
know the average price of all such textbooks in the
market. The research department at the company
took a sample of 25 comparable textbooks and
collected information on their prices. This
information produces a mean price of $145 for this
sample. It is known that the standard deviation of
the prices of all such textbooks is $35 and the
population of such prices is normal.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Estimation of population mean

(a) What is the point estimate of the mean

price of all such textbooks?
(b) Construct a 90% confidence interval for
the mean price of all such college
textbooks.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Solution

a)
n = 25, x = $145, and σ = $35

 35
x    $7.00
n 25
Point estimate of μ = x = $145

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Solution
b)
Confidence level is 90% or .90. Here, the
area in each tail of the normal distribution
curve is α/2=(1-.90)/2=.05. Hence, z =
1.65.

x  z x  145  1.65(7.00)  145  11.55

 (145-11.55) to (145  11.55)
 $133.45 to $156.55
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Solution

We can say that we are 90% confident that

the mean price of all such college textbooks
is between $133.45 and $156.55.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: estimation of population proportion

According to a survey by Pew Research

Center in June 2009, 44% of people aged 18
to 29 years said that religion is very
important to them. Suppose this result is
based on a sample of 1000 people aged 18
to 29 years.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: estimation of population proportion

a) What is the point estimate of the

population proportion?
b) Find, with a 99% confidence level, the
percentage of all people aged 18 to 29
years who will say that religion is very
important to them. What is the margin
of error of this estimate?

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example: Solution

 n = 1000, p̂ = .44, and, q̂ = .56

ˆˆ
pq (.44)(.56)
 s pˆ    .01569713
n 1000
 Note that npˆ and nqˆ are both greater
than 5.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example : Solution
a)
Point estimate of p = = .44

b)
The confidence level is 99%, or .99. z = 2.58.

pˆ  zs pˆ  .44  2.58(.01569713)  .44  .04

 .40 to .48 or 40% to 48%

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
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