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10-12-13 Transp Lecture Final Term

Trip generation is the first stage of transportation demand modeling where the total number of trips produced and attracted to each zone are predicted. There are two main approaches: growth factor modeling which predicts future trips as a linear function of variables like population, and regression modeling which develops linear equations to relate trip rates to variables like household size. Regression is preferred for internal trips as it accounts for changes in variables, while growth factors are used for external trips with limited data. The example shows calculating trip rates from household size data using regression analysis.

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38 views33 pages

10-12-13 Transp Lecture Final Term

Trip generation is the first stage of transportation demand modeling where the total number of trips produced and attracted to each zone are predicted. There are two main approaches: growth factor modeling which predicts future trips as a linear function of variables like population, and regression modeling which develops linear equations to relate trip rates to variables like household size. Regression is preferred for internal trips as it accounts for changes in variables, while growth factors are used for external trips with limited data. The example shows calculating trip rates from household size data using regression analysis.

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Trip Generation

Lecture 3 Final Term

by Engr. Mansoor Khan

1
Trip Generation

 Trip generation is the first


stage of the classical four
stage demand models
(FSM).
 The trip generation aims at
predicting the total number
of trips generated and
attracted to each zone of
the study area.
2
Trip Generation
 This stage answers the questions to/ how
many trips" originate at each zone.

 In this section the two main modeling


approaches; namely growth factor
modeling and regression modeling are
discussed

3
Types of trip
 Trip has already been defined in Lecture 2.
 If either origin or destination of a trip is the
home of the trip maker then such trips are
called home based trips and the rest of the
trips are called non home based trips.
 Trip production is defined as all the trips of
home based or as the origin of the non
home based trips.
4
Trips classification

Trips classification is broadly based on


1. Purpose of the journey

2. Time of the day

3. Type of the individual (who makes the


trips).

5
Trip identification
 Trips can be classified by trip purpose, trip time
of the day, and by person type.
 Trip generation models are found to be accurate
if separate models are used based on trip
purpose.
 The trips can be classified based on the purpose
of the journey as trips for work, trips for
education, trips for shopping, trips for
recreation and other trips.
6
Trip identification

Attraction Production

7
Trip identification
 The work and education trips are often referred as
mandatory trips and the rest as non-mandatory
trips.
 All the above trips are normally home based trips
and constitute about 80 to 85 percent of trips.
 The rest of the trips namely non home based trips,
being a small proportion are not normally treated
separately.

8
Factors affecting trip generation

 The main factors affecting personal trip production


include income, vehicle ownership, house hold
structure and family size.
 In addition factors like value of land, residential
density and accessibility are also considered for
modeling at zonal levels.
 The personal trip attraction, on the other hand, is
influenced by factors such as occupied space
available for industrial, commercial and other
services.

9
What is trip generation?
It is the process by
which measures of urban
activity are converted
into numbers of trips.
In trip generation, the
planner attempts to
quantify the relationship
between urban activity
and travel.
It means both trip
productions and
trip attractions.
Trip Generation
No of trips generated in a TAZ depends on
 Zone population (more people more travel)
 Economic condition (High income more travel)
 Vehicle ownership (personal car more trips)

Trip generation can be expressed as


 No of trips / employee
 No of trips / unit land
 No of trips / occupied dwelling units
A zone produces and attracts trips

Zone i

# of
dwelling
units
Shopping
center
employees
etc.

Depending on the activities in the


zone, it can produce and/or attract
trips. Transportation planners
estimate these trips first.
Trip generation

TAZ based trip generation is calculated in


two steps,
1. TAZ based trip production are calculated.
2. TAZ based trip attraction are calculated.
Difference b/w Trip production/
attraction and Trip Origin/ destination

Residential
ZONE A

Workshop
ZONE B

Restaurant
ZONE C
Trip generation
Most common variable is no of household.
Please remember ..it is not just counting
households.
We consider
 Household with automobiles
 Household with higher income
 Education level
 Family size
 Family age distribution
 No of occupied dwelling units
Two common ways for estimating the
number of trips produced
Regression models
Y = dependent var.
(trips/household)
Y  A  B1 X 1  B2 X 2  ... X1, X2, etc. = independent
variables

Category analysis (cross-classification


analysis)
 What will happen if we simple follow
the growth model?

17
Growth factor modeling
 Growth factor modes tries to predict
the number of trips produced or
attracted by a house hold or zone as a
linear function of explanatory
variables.
 The models have the following basic
equation:

18
Growth factor modeling
 where Ti is the number of future trips in the zone
and ti is the number of current trips in that zone
and fi is a growth factor.
 The growth factor fi depends on the explanatory
variable such as population (P) of the zone , average
house hold income (I) , average vehicle ownership
(V). The simplest form of fi is represented as follows

where the subscript " d" denotes the design year and the
19
subscript "c" denotes the current year
Example

 Given that a zone has 275 household with


car and 275 household without car and the
average trip generation rates for each groups
is respectively 5.0 and 2.5 trips per day.
 Assuming that in the future, all household
will have a car, find the growth factor and
future trips from that zone, assuming that
the population and income remains
constant?
20
Solution

 Current trip rate


trips/day.
 Growth factor
= 2.0
 Therefore, no. of
future trips

trips/day
21
Limitations
 The above example also shows the
limitation of growth factor method.
 If we assume the trip rate will remain
same in the future.
 Therefore the number of trips in the
future will be
550 house X 5 trips/day = 2750 trips/ day.
22
Actual trips lower than generated

 It may be noted from the above example that


the actual trips generated is much lower than
the growth factor method. Therefore growth
factor models are normally used in the
prediction of external trips where no other
methods are available.
 For internal trips , regression methods are more
suitable and will be discussed in the following
section.
23
Regression methods

 The general form of a trip


generation model is

 Where xi's are prediction


factor or explanatory
variable. The most common
form of trip generation model
is a linear function of the
form

where ai 's are the coefficient of the regression equation 24

and can be obtained by doing regression analysis.


Regression methods

 The above equations are called multiple


linear regression equation.

 For the purpose of illustration, an


example with one variable is given.

25
Example
 Let the trip rate of a zone is explained by the
household size done from the field survey. It
was found that the household size are 1, 2, 3
and 4. The trip rates of the corresponding
household is as shown in the table below. Fit
a linear equation relating trip rate and
household size.

26
Example

Household size (x)


Trips 1 2 3 4
per 1 2 4 6
Day 2 4 5 7
(y)
2 3 3 4
Σy 5 9 12 17

27
For a best fit, b is given by

28
Summary

 Trip generation forms the first step of four-


stage travel modeling.
 It gives an idea about the total number of
trips generated to and attracted from
different zones in the study area.
 Growth factor modeling and regression
methods can be used to predict the trips.

29
Example 2

 The trip rate (y ) and the corresponding


household sizes (x ) from a sample are
shown in table below. Compute the trip
rate if the average household size is 3.25
(Hint: use regression method).

30
The Matrix

Household size (x)


Trips 1 2 3 4
per
Day 1 3 4 5
(y)
3 4 5 8

3 5 7 8
Σy 7 12 16 21
31
Regression analysis

32
Number of trips

 When average household size =3.25,


number of trips becomes, = 5.819

33

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