Introduction and Overview of Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessments
Hands-On
Training Workshop
Introduction and Overview of

Vulnerability and Adaptation
Frameworks
Outline
1. Some introductory thoughts and getting

started
2. What is vulnerability and adaptation to
climate change?
3. Overview of V&A frameworks
Some Introductory
Thoughts
“To a Hammer, Everything
Looks Like a Nail”
 Methods or models do not provide
answers, but can help us gain insights
 The first step is to consider the
question(s) being asked
Some Questions to Begin
Assessment of Vulnerability and
Adaptation
 What is of concern?
 Food production, water supply, health?
 Concerns may not be expressed in climate
terms, e.g., extreme temperature, but in
consequences of climate for people
 Who may be affected?
 How far into the future is of concern?
 Note concerns may focus on current risks
(which could be made worse by climate
change)
Some Questions to Begin Assessment of
Vulnerability and Adaptation (continued)
 For what purpose is the assessment to be

used?
 Raising awareness (education)?
 Policy making? (e.g., to inform a particular
decision)
 What kind of output is needed?
Additional Questions to Ask
Before Getting Started
 What resources are available to conduct

the study?
 Money
 Staff
 Expertise
 How much time is available?
These Questions are Key Factors in
Determining How to Conduct Your Study
 You should not begin with the methods or

models you have in hand, but with these
questions
 Select methods and models that best help
you answer the questions
Different Questions May Lead
to Different Approaches
 Questions about how climate change may

affect resources may lead to analysis of
long-term impacts, e.g., out to 2100
 Questions about adaptation may lead to
analysis of vulnerability within a planning
horizon, e.g., 5 to 50 years
Who Is Asking the Question(s) May
Matter for How the Work Is Done
 Some may be content with research that

is conducted by the researchers
 Others may wish for a hands-on approach
 e.g, involve stakeholders in conducting the
analysis
Bottom Line:
What Information is Needed
and When is it Needed?
What Are Vulnerability
and Adaptation?
Vulnerability
 Vulnerability to climate change is the risk

of adverse things happening
 Vulnerability is a function of three factors:
 Exposure
 Sensitivity
 Adaptive capacity
Exposure
Exposure is what is at risk from

climate change, e.g.,
 Population
 Resources
 Property
It is also the climate change
that an affected system will
face, e.g.,
 Sea level
 Temperature
 Precipitation
 Extreme events
Sensitivity
 Biophysical effect of
climate change
 Change in crop yield, runoff,
energy demand
 It considers the
socioeconomic context,
e.g., the agriculture system
 Grain crops typically are
sensitive
 Manufacturing typically is
much less sensitive
Adaptive Capacity
 Capability to adapt
 Function of:
 Wealth
 Technology
 Education
 Institutions
 Information
 Infrastructure
 “Social capital”
 Having adaptive capacity
does not mean it is used
effectively
Vulnerability is a Function of
All Three
 More exposure and sensitivity increase
vulnerability
 More adaptive capacity decreases
vulnerability
 An assessment of vulnerability should
consider all three factors
Impacts of Climate Change
 Impact is typically the effect of climate

change
 For biological systems, it can be change in
productivity, quality, population, or range
 For societal systems, an impact can be a
change in income, morbidity, mortality, or
other measure of well-being
Adaptation
 “adjustment in natural or human systems

in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm of exploits beneficial opportunities”
(Third Assessment Report, Working
Group II)
 Notice includes “actual” (realized) or
“expected” (future) changes in climate
Adaptation (continued)
 Two types of adaptation:

 Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation
tends to be what people and systems do as
impacts of climate change become apparent
 Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are
measures taken to reduce potential risks of
future climate change
Overview of Vulnerability
and Adaptation
Frameworks
Overview of Frameworks
 Description of some V&A frameworks

 One size does not fit all
 Select a framework or method that best
suits:
 Questions being asked
 Who is asking them
 What kind of answers are needed
 What resources and time are available
Two Types of Frameworks
 Impacts
 Also known as “first generation” or “top down”
 Adaptation
 Also known as “second generation” or
“bottom up”
“Top Down” vs. “Bottom Up”
Impacts Frameworks Driven by Need to
Understand Long-Term Consequences
 Tend to look out many decades (to 2100

or beyond)
 Tend to be scenario driven
Adaptation Frameworks Driven by Need to
Supply Useful Information to Stakeholders
 Tend to address near-term concerns

 Often address climate variability and change
 Emphasis on socioeconomic context
 Driven by stakeholder identification of
issues and involvement in process
 Bring in analysis as necessary and
appropriate
 Could use non-analytic techniques
Impacts Frameworks
 IPCC Seven Steps

 U.S. Country Studies Program
 UNEP Handbook
Basic Structure for Impacts
Frameworks
Baseline Scenarios
• Population • Institutions
• GNP • Environment
• Technology
Climate change
scenarios
Biophysical impacts
Socioeconomic impacts
Autonomous
Integration
adaptation
Vulnerability
Purposeful adaptations
IPCC Seven Steps
• Define the problem

• Select the method
• Test the method
• Select scenarios
• Assess biophysical and socioeconomic
impacts
• Assess autonomous adjustments
• Evaluate adaptation strategies
U.S. Country Studies Program
 Provided detailed guidance on specific methods

 Coastal resources
 Agriculture
 Livestock
 Water resources
 Vegetation
 Human health
 Wildlife
 Fisheries
 Adaptation
 Publications
UNEP Handbook

 Presents overviews of methods
 Source for information on different methods
 Not detailed guidance
 Topics include
 Climate change scenarios
 Socioeconomic scenarios
UNEP Handbook (continued)
 Integration
 Adaptation
 Water resources
 Coastal zones
 Agriculture
 Rangeland and livestock
 Human health
 Energy
 Forests
 Biodiversity
 Fisheries
Adaptation Frameworks
 UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

 NAPA Guidance
 UKCIP
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
APF COMPONENTS
Continuing the
Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity

adaptation process
Formulating an
Engaging stakeholders
adaptation strategy
Assessing future
climate risks
Assessing current
vulnerability
Scoping and designing

an adaptation process
UNDP Adaptation Policy
Framework (continued)
 Contains technical papers on:
 Scoping and designing an adaptation project
 Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
 Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation
 Assessing current climate risks
 Assessing future climate risks
 Assessing current and changing socioeconomic
conditions
 Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
 Formulating an adaptation strategy
 Continuing the adaptation process
NAPA Guidance
 National Adaptation Programmes of

Action
 Least developed countries identify and
rank proposed measures to adapt to
climate change
 Decision 28/CP.7
NAPA Process
NAPA Guidance (continued)
 Guidance provides framework for

developing NAPAs
 Discusses:
 Objectives and characteristics of NAPA’s
guiding elements
 Process
 Structure
UKCIP Framework
• Identify problem and objectives

• Establish decision-making criteria
• Assess risk
• Identify options
• Appraise options
• Make decision
• Implement decision
• Monitor, evaluate, and review
Other Approaches
 VARA
 Sustainable livelihoods
Vulnerability and Response Assessment
for Climate Variability and Change
 Heuristic, not analytic device

 Nonquantitative
 Five step approach
 Consider local factors affecting vulnerability
 Estimate climate change impacts
 Estimate local impacts
 Identify coping capacity and resilience
 Identify strategies for action
Sustainable Livelihoods
AIACC
 Assessments of impacts and adaptations

to climate change
 Covers both impacts and adaptation
approaches
AIACC (continued)
Selecting a Framework
 We are not recommending use of a

particular framework
 Different frameworks are appropriate for
different needs
 What is needed in the long run is
integration of climate change predictions
and adaptation with a baseline of
vulnerability
Application of Frameworks
 Projects often take longer and cost more

than originally thought (or proposed)
 Be careful about complex frameworks
 You may only get through the first few
steps before running out of time or funds
 Do what you need early on
Key Factors in Determining
How to Conduct Your Study
 You should not begin with the methods or

models you have in hand, but with these
questions
 Select methods and models that best help
you answer the questions

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Vulnerability and

Introduction and Overview of

1. Some introductory thoughts and getting

 For what purpose is the assessment to be

 What resources are available to conduct

 You should not begin with the methods or

 Questions about how climate change may

 Some may be content with research that

 Vulnerability to climate change is the risk

Exposure is what is at risk from

 Impact is typically the effect of climate

 “adjustment in natural or human systems

 Two types of adaptation:

 Description of some V&A frameworks

 Tend to look out many decades (to 2100

 Tend to address near-term concerns

 IPCC Seven Steps

• Define the problem

 Provided detailed guidance on specific methods

 UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity

Scoping and designing

 National Adaptation Programmes of

 Guidance provides framework for

• Identify problem and objectives

 Heuristic, not analytic device

 Assessments of impacts and adaptations

 We are not recommending use of a

 Projects often take longer and cost more

 You should not begin with the methods or

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