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SECTION 7.3
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR
A POPULATION PROPORTION
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display.
Objectives

1. Construct a confidence interval for a population

proportion
2. Find the sample size necessary to obtain a confidence
interval of a given width
3. Describe a method for constructing confidence intervals
with small samples

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 Objective 1
Construct a confidence interval for a population
proportion

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Guitar Hero

The music organization Little Kids Rock surveyed

517 music teachers, and 403 of them said that video
games like Guitar Hero and Rock Band, in which
442 players try to play music in time with a video
image, have a positive effect on music education.

Assuming these teachers to be a random sample of

U.S. music teachers, we would like to construct a
confidence interval for the proportion of music
teachers who believe that music video games have a
positive effect on music classrooms.

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Notation

We
  use the following notation:
• p is the population proportion of individuals who are in a specified
category.
• x is the number of individuals in the sample who are in the specified
category.
• n is the sample size.
• is the sample proportion of individuals who are in the specified category.

The point estimate for the population proportion is .

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Standard Error and Margin of Error

The
   standard error is determined by the sampling distribution of and is
given by:
Standard Error =

The margin of error is computed as the critical value times the standard
error:
Margin of Error =

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Confidence Interval for Population Proportion p

The
   confidence interval for the population proportion p is

Point estimate Margin of error

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Assumptions for Constructing Confidence Interval
for p

Assumptions for Constructing a Confidence Interval for p

1. We have a simple random sample.

2. The population is at least 20 times as large as the sample.

3. The items in the population are divided into two categories.

4. The sample must contain at least 10 individuals in each category.

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 Procedure for Constructing a Confidence Interval for
p

Procedure for Constructing a Confidence Interval for p

Check to be sure the assumptions are satisfied.

Step 1: Compute the value of the point estimate .

Step 2: Find the critical value for the desired confidence level.

Step 3: Compute the standard error and multiply it by the

critical value to obtain the margin of error .

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 Procedure for Constructing a Confidence Interval for
p

Procedure for Constructing a Confidence Interval for p

Step 4: Use the point estimate and the margin of error to construct the
confidence interval:

Point estimate Margin of error

<p<

Step 5: Interpret the result.

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Example

In a survey of 517 music teachers, 403 said that the video games Guitar Hero
and Rock Band have a positive effect on music education. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the proportion of music teachers who believe that these
video games have a positive effect.
Solution:
We first check the assumptions:
We have a simple random sample. It is reasonable to believe that the
population of music teachers in the U.S. is at least 20 times as large as the
sample. The items in the population can be divided into two categories: those
who believe that the games have a positive effect, and those who do not. There
are 403 teachers who believe that the games have a positive effect, and 517 −
403 = 114 who do not, so there are 10 or more items in each category.
The assumptions are met.

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Example

Solution
   (continued):
Step 1: Compute the point estimate .
Since the sample size is n = 517 and the number who believe that video
games have a positive effect is x = 403, the point estimate is

Step 2: Find the critical value.

For a 95% confidence interval, the critical value is , found at the bottom
of Table A.3 or by technology.

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Example

Solution
   (continued):
Step 3: Compute the margin of error.
The margin of error is
= 1.96 = 0.035738

Step 4: Construct the confidence interval:

The confidence interval is
<p<
0.779497 – 0.035738 < p < 0.779497 + 0.035738
0.744 < p < 0.815

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Solution

Solution (continued):
Step 5: Interpret the result.
We are 95% confident that the proportion of music teachers who
believe that video games have a positive effect is between 0.744 and 0.815.

Suppose that a video game manufacturer claims that 80% of music teachers
believe that Guitar Hero and Rock Band have a positive effect. Does the
confidence interval contradict this claim?

Because the value 0.80 is within the confidence interval, the confidence
interval does not contradict the claim.

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Confidence Intervals on the TI-84 PLUS

The 1-PropZInt command constructs confidence intervals

for the population proportion. This command is accessed
by pressing STAT and highlighting the TESTS menu.

Enter the values of x, n, and the confidence level.

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Example (TI-84 PLUS)

In a survey of 517 music teachers, 403 said that the video games Guitar Hero and
Rock Band have a positive effect on music education. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the proportion of music teachers who believe that these
video games have a positive effect.

Solution:
We press STAT and highlight the TESTS menu and
select 1-PropZInt.

Enter 403 in the x field, 517 in the n field, and 0.95

in the C-level field.

Select Calculate.

The confidence interval is (0.744, 0.815).

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 Objective 2
Find the sample size necessary to obtain a
confidence interval of a given width

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Reducing the Margin of Error

If
 we
  wish to make the margin of error of a confidence interval smaller while
keeping the confidence level the same, we can do this by making the sample
size larger. Sometimes we have a specific value that we would like the
margin of error to attain, and we wish to compute a sample size that is likely
to give us a margin of error of that size.

Let m represent the margin of error: =

This formula may be rewritten as .

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Necessary Sample Size Formula

The
   formula for the required sample size is

In order to use this formula, we need a value for and . We can set the value of , but
we don’t know ahead of time what is going to be.

There are two ways to determine a value for .

1. Use a value that is available from a previously drawn sample.
2. To assume that = 0.5, which makes the margin of error as large as possible
for any sample size. In this case, the formula simplifies to .

If the value of n given by the formula is not a whole number, round up to the nearest
whole number.

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Example

In
 a  survey of 517 music teachers, 403 said that the video games Guitar Hero
and Rock Band have a positive effect on music education. Estimate the
sample size needed so that a 95% confidence interval will have a margin of
error of 0.03.
Solution:
Since the desired level is 95%, the critical value is = 1.96. We compute

The desired margin of error is = 0.03. The necessary sample size is

= (0.779497)(1 – 0.779497)= 733.67

We round up to 734.

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Example

We
  plan to sample music teachers in order to construct a 95% confidence
interval for the proportion who believe that listening to hip-hop music has a
positive effect on music education. We have no value of available. Estimate
the sample size needed so that a 95% confidence interval will have a margin of
error of 0.03.
Solution:
The critical value is therefore = 1.96 and the desired margin of error is m =
0.03. Since we have no value of , substitute the values = 1.96 and m = 0.03
into the formula. We have

We round up to 1068.

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 Objective 3
Describe a method for constructing confidence
intervals with small samples

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 Adjusted Sample Proportion

The
   method presented for constructing a confidence interval for a proportion
requires that we have at least 10 individuals in each category. When this
condition is not met, we can still construct a confidence interval by adjusting
the sample proportion a bit.
We increase the number of individuals in each category by 2, so that the
sample size increases by 4. Thus, instead of using the sample proportion , we
use the adjusted sample proportion, .

 
Adjusted sample proportion

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Standard error and Critical values for a Proportion
with Small Samples

The
   standard error and critical value are calculated in the same way as in the
traditional method, except that we use the adjusted sample proportion in place
of , and n + 4 in place of n.

The standard error becomes .

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Example

In
 a  random sample of 10 businesses in a certain city, 6 of them had more
than 15 employees. Use the small-sample method to construct a 95%
confidence interval for the proportion of businesses in this city that have
more than 15 employees.
Solution:
The adjusted sample proportion is =
The critical value is = 1.96.
The confidence interval is – < p < +

0.5714 – 1.96 < p < 0.5714 + 1.96

0.312 < p < 0.831

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Small-Sample Method: TI-84 PLUS

Because
   the only difference between the small-sample method and the
traditional method is the use of rather than , a software package or calculator
such as TI-84 Plus can be made to produce a confidence interval using the
small-sample method. Simply input x + 2 for the number of individuals in the
category of interest, and n + 4 for the sample size.

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Example (TI-84 PLUS)

In a random sample of 10 businesses in a certain city, 6 of them had more than 15

employees. Use the small-sample method to construct a 95% confidence interval
for the proportion of businesses in this city that have more than 15 employees.

Solution:
We press STAT and highlight the TESTS menu and
select 1-PropZInt.

Enter 8 (which is 6+2) in the x field, 14 (which is 10+4)

in the n field, and 0.95 in the C-level field.

Select Calculate.

The confidence interval is (0.312, 0.831).

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Advantages of the Small-Sample Method

The small-sample method can be used for any sample size, and
recent research has shown that it has two advantages over the
traditional method;
1. The margin of error is smaller, because we divide by n + 4
rather than n.
2. The actual probability that the small-sample confidence
interval covers the true proportion is almost always at
least as great as, or greater than, that of the traditional
method.

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Do You Know…

• How to construct a confidence interval for a population

proportion?
• How to find the sample size necessary to obtain a
confidence interval for a population proportion of a given
width?
• How to construct confidence intervals with small
samples?

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