Overview of Mesoscale weather

systems
 Introduction
• Many of the weather phenomena that most directly
impact human activity occur on the mesoscale.
• It is often heard that the two day forecasts seems better
than those for the first 24 hrs.
 This arises from the extra level of detail expected during the first
24 hrs and from our current limited success in providing it.
• To provide more detailed forecast it is necessary to
observe model phenomena on the mesoscale also to
pay attention on isolated strange values of pressure,
winds, temperature etc, that are often found on
plotted synoptic charts and are suspected to be errors.
Ploted Synoptic chart
 Introduction cont……
• Operational surface and upper air networks may
not be able to resolve some mesoscale systems
because mesoscale phenomena may occur
between stations
 Need to use radar and satellite to detect mesoscale
system.
 Need to use conceptual models to boost spotty data
 Need to use extrapolation and physical reasoning in
forecasting to supplement mesoscale numerical
models
 Mesoscale phenomena
• Weather phenomena that are smaller in size and are too
small to be shown on a weather map are referred to
as mesoscale. 
• Mesoscale phenomena include, but are not limited to
 thunderstorms, squall lines, supercells, tornadoes,
mesoscale convective complexes, gravity waves,
mountain waves, low-level jets, density currents,
land/sea breezes, heat island circulations, clear air
turbulence, jet streaks, fronts, tropical cyclones
(hurricanes /typhoons)
• Mesoscale events range from a few kilometers to several
hundred kilometers in size. They last a day or less, and
impact areas on a regional and local scale.
 Mesoscale phenomena
• Events smaller than mesoscale weather events
are microscale events. They are smaller than 1 kilometer
in size and very short-lived, lasting minutes only.
 Microscale events/phenomena include things like turbulence
and dust devils
• Historically, definition of scales have been drawn from essentially
three sources: observations of atmospheric phenomena, size of
observations networks and theoretical inferences
 Why consider weather’s scales?
• Observations have shown that atmospheric
phenomena differ in size and duration
• In order to better understand the complex dynamical
and physical processes associated with mesoscale
phenomena, different approximations (scaling) have
been adopted:
• a proper scaling facilitates the choice of appropriate
approximations of the governing equations
 Atmospheric scales
• Scaling of atmospheric motions is normally based on
observational and theoretical approaches
• In the observational approach, atmospheric
processes are categorized through direct empirical
definition (Visual observation and spectral analysis)
and the instruments used e.g. Radar, satellites,
instrumented aircrafts and very dense surface
instrumental networks (synoptic stations)
 For example, sea breezes occur on a time scale of about 1
day and spatial scales of 10 to 100 km, while cumulus
convection occurs on a time scale of about 30 minutes and
covers a spatial scale of several kilometers.
• Mesoscale phenomena are often categorized into discrete
scales because observational data are recorded in discrete
time intervals
• In the theoretical approach, atmospheric processes are
categorized based on physical characteristics of the
system
i. Amount of instability
• Example: the appearance of convection indicates that the system
is highly unstable while the mean zonal flow with waves indicates
that the system is weakly unstable.
• A system that is barely unstable will generally contain a very well-
defined chain of disturbances with a specific wavelength that is
partially or wholly determined by the character of the mean
flow.
• As the degree of instability increases, disturbances of different
wavelengths will appear together with the main disturbances
 Scaling based on theoretical approach
ii. Response to forcings:
• This process involves the examination of free stable modes of
oscillation of atmospheric systems.
• One way of doing this is to examine the response of a system
to some specified forcings; e.g.
 Forced by other atmospheric phenomena
 Example: Outflow from preceding storms
 Forced by conditions at boundaries
 Examples: Topography, land use, diurnal radiative cycle
 Example, for airflow over a mountain, the scale of the mechanically
induced quasi-steady waves corresponds roughly to the scale of the
imposed forcing.
 Scaling based on theoretical approach
iii. Lagrangian timescale:
Lagrangian timescale is the mean time for an air parcel to be
displaced from one location to another
• This is a convenient and physically meaningful way of
categorizing the scale of disturbances in a system. It is done by
comparing the Lagrangian time scale (the time over which
particles accelerate) with some intrinsic time scale in the whole
system.
• For the wave-like oscillations, The Lagrangian time scale is simply
the time it takes for a particle to move through one wavelength.
• For non wavy instabilities, such as convection, Lagrangian time
scale is the time it takes for particle to move through the whole
disturbance.

•
 Classes of mesoscale phenomena
 There are two broad classes of mesoscale phenomena
Those that are primarily forced by instabilities travelling
in large-scale disturbances (synoptically induced
mesoscale system): Free/internal circulations
(disturbances)
• Examples are: squall lines and mesoscale cloud clusters,
shallow/deep convection (due to static instability /buoyancy),
MCCs, (forced mainly by consequences of latent heat release),
jet streaks, polar lows, squall lines, tropical storms, tropical
cyclone, cyclones (due to baroclinic instability), turbulent
eddies (due to Kelvin Helmholtz instability)
 They are induced by inhomogeneities in a large-scale flow which are mobile and require
forecasting. Hence, forecasting mesoscale systems in this group is rather more difficult
 Classes of mesoscale phenomena
Those that are primarily forced by surface inhomogeneities
(terrain-induced mesoscale systems):Externally forced

This forcing is commonly due to either:

 differential heating of earth’s surface, which in turn creates differential
heating of the atmosphere (i.e., thermal forcing)
 Examples are: land/sea breeze circulations
 atmospheric response to irregular terrain (i.e., mechanical forcing).
 Examples are: mountain/valley circulations, mountains waves and
gravity waves
•The distinguishing feature of the system in this group is they are
locally induced and their behaviour is the most predictable
terrain-induced mesoscale systems

• The wind flow, with a strong component

perpendicular to the primary ridge line.
• This is a typical condition for mountain wave
development, in a stable atmosphere.

Satellite picture showing Mountain

waves
 Mesoscale definitions
• Space and time scales criteria
• Dynamical consideration
 Space and time scale definition
• Mesoscale:
Lidga (1951): the “Middle Scales” between synoptic
scale and cumulus scale.
Fugita (1981): Weather phenomena of scales
between 2 km and 2000 km. Scales larger than 2000
km are “macroscale” and scales smaller than 2 km are
“microscale”
Moore, Byrd and Colman (1996): any disturbance
larger than 1Km which it too small to be resolved or
described by large scale forcing or by the conventional
surface observing network, generally this will yield a
disturbance time scale on the order of hrs
 Scale definition
Orlanski (1975) proposed set of scales (ignoring
synoptic and cumulus) as depicted in Table 1.
These definitions have gained wide acceptance, despite
an even newer proposal by Fugita (1981) and Moore, Byrd
and Colman (1996)
Table 1: Definition of Mesoscale phenomena by Orlanski (1975)
Scale definitions and the characteristic time and horizontal length scales of a
variety of atmospheric processes. Adapted from Orlanski (1975).
 Dynamical
consideration of
mesoscale definition
 Dynamical consideration of mesoscale
definition

• Geostrophic balance is a poor approximation

to the mesoscale winds
Mesoscale phenomena have much larger pressure
gradient forces compared to the synoptic scale,
while the coriolis force remains similar to the
synoptic scale. Hence, mesoscale weather systems
are characterised by large ageostrophic motions
and large wind acceleration
Thus, another good definition of mesoscale is the
scale on which ageostrophic motions are
important.
 Dynamical consideration of mesoscale
definition
• Hydrostatic balance is a poor approximation for
mesoscale systems
 For synoptic scale and some mesoscale systems, the
vertical pressure gradient force and the acceleration due
to gravity are nearly equal assuming that the atmosphere
is in hydrostatic balance. In this situation vertical
accelerations in the air motion is negligible.
 Vertical acceleration can sometimes be large (as in the
case of buoyancy driven circulations). In such situation not
only will there be large vertical motion but also affiliated
non-hydrostatic (dynamic) pressures.
 Dynamical consideration of
mesoscale definition
• The quantity H/L is known as the aspect ratio of the phenomenon
i.e. the ratio of the characteristic depth scale of the phenomenon
to the horizontal length scale (or width) of the phenomenon.
• When a phenomenon is much wider than it is deep i.e. (H/L<1),
vertical acceleration is relatively small compared to the vertical
pressure gradient (and gravity) and the phenomenon can be
considered a “hydrostatic phenomenon”
• When a phenomenon is approximately as wide as it is deep i.e.
(H/L ~ 1), vertical acceleration is relatively large compared to the
vertical pressure gradient (and gravity) and the phenomenon is
considered a “nonhydrostatic phenomenon”
 Dynamical consideration of
mesoscale definition
• On the synoptic scale, H/L ~ 10 km/1000 km ~1/100
<< 1. On the mesoscale, H/L can be ~1 or <<1,
depending on the phenomenon.
• In a thunderstorm updraft, H/L ~ 10 km/10 km ~ 1
(i.e., the thunderstorm updraft can be considered to
be a nonhydrostatic phenomenon).
• But for the rain-cooled outflow that the
thunderstorm produces, H/L ~ 1 km/10 km ~ 1/10 <<
1 (i.e., the outflow can be considered to be an
approximately hydrostatic phenomenon).
Examples of nonhydrostatic and approximately hydrostatic phenomena plotted as a
function of depth versus horizontal length (i.e., width) scale
 Dynamical consideration of
mesoscale definition
• Note that hydrostatic assumption may not apply to
some mesoscale weather systems, especially for
those associated with convection.
• NB: After dynamical definition. Based on this
interpretation, Pielke defined mesoscale as
phenomena small enough to be significantly out of
geostrophic balance but large enough that
hydrostatic approximation is valid.
• Mesoscale meteorology: is the study
of weather systems smaller than synoptic
scale systems but larger than microscale
systems.
• In this class, we will study some of
mesoscale phenomena, with emphasis on
the physical understanding of the
phenomena (structure, evolution,
responsible physical processes and typical
weather events)
Why no clean definition of mesoscale?
•Many phenomena comprise features that cover
a range of scales
– Examples: fronts and hurricanes
Elena, 1985
 Why no clean definition of mesoscale?

• Dynamical definitions of scale vary with location on

the globe
– Example: On the equator, where the Coriolis force is zero,
the Rossby number (U / f L ) is infinite, so even big
phenomena are dynamically “small”
• synoptic scale systems have important mesoscale
features (e.g. extratropical cyclone is synoptic-scale
while fronts are mesoscale)
Mesoscale analysis and forecasting
• Similar to synoptic scale weather forecasting,
mesoscale prediction also consists of three
components: (a) observation; (b) analysis and
diagnostics; (c) prediction.
• Mesoscale weather forecasting requirements
can be broadly grouped into three classes.
• (a) nowcasting; (b) very short range
forecasting and (c) short range forecasting.
• Nowcasts require high resolution of spatial and
temporal meteorological data to detect and
predict the occurrence of an event:
 Predict the future state by using the trend of the
present weather
• Very short range forecasting: forecasting the
main weather variable up to 6 hrs ahead: this
involve the use of very high resolution NWP
where the analyses and forecasts are updated
every 15 mins to 1hour
• Short range forecasting: forecasting the main
weather variable up to 24 hrs ahead by using
NWP
 Mesoscale analysis data
i. Observation data:
1. Surface data
 With the exception of remote sensing, the only source of
data suitable for meso-analysis is at the surface. This
implies analysis of the smallest scale allowed by the
data density of the routine surface observations.
 Surface analysis can help to locate areas of surface
convergence (upward motions especially when it
coincide with regions of convective instability)
 Much emphasis is put on the discontinuities in the
surface fields (eg winds, moisture, temperature,
pressure etc)
Identification and prognosis of boundaries is generally
a key element in producing forecast
 Mesoscale analysis data
2. Upper air data (sounding):
Any forecast should begin with a 4 Dimension picture of the
atmosphere to get a unified picture of the situation
 This is where mesoanalysis shoud begin
A first consideration in sounding analysis is an assessment of the
stability of the atmosphere (thermodynamics) by means of single
parameters such as showaleter, lifted index, SWEAT, totals etc.
Other factors which can be evaluated from a sounding are
 Depth of the moisture layer
 The vertical profile of the potential wet-bulb potential temperature
 Equilibrium level for rising parcel etc
Vertical profile of the atmosphere:
 Mesoscale analysis data
ii. Satellite imagery:
• enables the forecasters to
identify
 The type of the cloud
 The type of weather phenomena
 The extent of the cloud
 The height of the cloud tops
 The movement of the cloud
 The existence of characteristic
patterns indicative of particular
phenomena
 Mesoscale analysis data
iii. Radar data:
• The pattern of
reflectivity of radar
echo provides
information on the
atmospheric
organization both
on mesoscale and
the convective
scales
 Mesoscale analysis data
iv. Conceptual models:
• A conceptual model describes essential features of
meteorological phenomenon and identifies the
principal processes taking place.
• Conceptual Models are an important diagnostic
tool, widely used by meteorological services.
• They allow both an interpretation of satellite data
and the subsequent use of this data in combination
with other data, such as numerical model output
and conventional observation data.
 Conceptual models cont……
• A complete conceptual model provides:
 Definition of the phenomenon in terms of features
recognizable by observations, analysis or validated simulations
 Description of the life cycle in terms of appearance, size,
intensity and accompanying weather
 Statement of the controlling physical processes which enables
the understanding of the factors that determine the mode and
the rate of evolution of the phenomenon
 Specification of the key meteorological fields demonstrating
the main process
 Guidance for predicting formation using the diagnostic and
prognostic fields that best discriminate between
development or non-development; guidance for predicting
movement and evolution
Elements of conceptual models
 Mesoscale analysis data
v. Ground based lightning:
Most usefull for forecasting thundershower
development