እንደምን

አደራችሁ?

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Welcome to the Training on Project Planning,
Implementation, Monitoring & Evaluation

Date: Oct. 14, 2016

ADAMA 2
 Introduction
 Setting Norms
 Time management
 Reporters
 Energizing team
 Expectations
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Introduction
Name
Position
Educational background
Work experience
What I like most
What I hate most
Future plan

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 Facilitators
Temesgen Dagne (PhD candidate, MBA, Mcom)
Lecturer, Consultant, researcher and trainer
Email: [email protected]
Cell phone number: 091110395

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 How should we govern our
training?
 What are the Individual
duties and responsibilities?

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  Time manager (s)
1.
2.

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 Day 2=
 Day 3=
 Day 4=

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 Team members
1.
2.

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 The general objective of the training is to
enhance the capacity of trainees and enable to
use the techniques and tools in planning and
managing development projects.

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Specifically
At the end of this training participants will be able to :
 Understand the concept of project and project life cycle
management
 Apply project management tools to identify project ideas
 Develop basic idea on project feasibility study and project
appraisal
 Play an active role in project preparation, implementation,
monitoring and evaluation of projects

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Structure of the presentation
Overview of a Project Management

Project Identification

Project Design/preparation

Project Appraisal

Implementation

Monitoring and Evaluation

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Mode of delivery

Brainstorming

Lecture

Individual Reflection
Group discussions
 Group presentation

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“ Everything begins with project and
ends with another project….”

… now let us start our project…..with

overview of project and project
management….

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 Part One
Overview of project
and Project
Management
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Session Objectives
 Describe a project and project management
 Distinguish between a project and regular operation
 Recognize the link between plan, program and
project
 Critically understand the roles, skills, attributes and
duties required for project manager
 Describe the project life cycle

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 Contents

1.Overview of Project and Project mgt

1.1Concepts of a Project, Project management

1.2 Plan, program and project

1.3 Operations Vs Projects

1.4 Project managers

1.5 Overview of project cycle

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Concepts of Project and Project
Managemenet

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What is a Project?

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Brainstorming Questions (10 minutes)

 How do you perceive a project and Project

management?
Think about any project you know in Addis, What
were some of the problems you observed while it is
going on? List the major one’s?

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 Agricultural projects…..

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 Road project

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 Electric power projects

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 Water project

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Housing projects

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Hydropower projects

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Irrigation projects

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1.1 Defining project
 A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken
to create a unique product, service or result
(PMI, 2008)

 A project is a series of activities aimed at

achieving specified objectives within a
defined time period and with a defined budget
(EU, 2002)

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Comprehensive definition:

Project is a temporary endeavor involving a

sequence of activities and a range of
resources, which is designed to achieve a
specific and unique outcome, which operates
within time, scope, cost and quality constraints
and which is often used to introduce change
(Lake, 1997).
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Projects range in size, scope, cost and time from mega
international projects costing millions of dollars over
many years to small domestic projects with a low
budget taking just a few hours to complete

Examples of projects
Build low cost houses/ condominium
Build a dam for hydroelectric/irrigation
Improve the standard of a road
Redesigning the IT system in ........

More examples?
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Key concepts of the definition:
 Purpose-the basic reason for the existence of a
project: to solve a problem, address a need or take
the advantage of opportunity.

 Temporary: means that a project is something that

has a specific start date and a specific end date.

 Sequences of Activities: the works and the steps we

perform and the methods and knowledge we use to
achieve the project objective.

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 Resources: A project utilizes a variety of resources
[human, financial, material, information, etc] to
carry out the activities or tasks.
 Unique Outcome: A project brings about a unique
product or service - something that has not existed in
the organization here-to-fore.
 Scope- boundaries of operations determined by
external constraints and internal capacity of the
organization.
 Organization: is vital to coordinate resources to
achieve the project objectives- organizations can be
public, private or NGOs.

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 Time: any project should be time bounded-it has a start and
end time

 Cost: activities consume human, financial and material

resources.

 Quality: the project needs to produce quality products to

maximize the satisfaction of the users.

 Introduce change: A project is often used as an instrument

for change - change for the betterment of the society.

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1.2 Characteristics of projects
1. A project has a unique Purpose

2. A project is a one-time or temporary activity

3. A projects is unique activity and non- routine

4. A project has a definite beginning and ending time

5. Projects have time, cost and quality constraints

6. A project has a life cycle

7. A projects have a primary customer or sponsor

8. A project involves uncertainty.

Reflection (10 minutes)

 Do you think that national/organizational plan

should be linked (related) with programs and projects?
How? Can you give practical examples for each?

 How do you differentiate a project and regular

operations of an organization?

What do you think is the role of a project manager?

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 1.3 Plan, Program and project

Project Vs Plan
Planning is defined as the process of
determining organizational goals and the
courses of actions for attaining these goals.
 Courses of action are: Strategy, Program, and
Project

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 Project Vs program
 A program is a collection of associated projects that are
managed together to achieve goal
 Since programs comprise multiple projects, they are
larger in scope than a single project.
 However, a project is a temporary investment activity
where resources are used to create assets, which produce
benefits over time and has a beginning and an end with
specific objectives.

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 Project Program
Narrow in scope Wide in scope; can comprise
many projects as components.
Specific and detail Comprehensive and general
Differences

More precise and accurate in Broader goal related to

its objectives and features sectoral policy
Possible to calculate the Difficult to calculate costs
costs and returns and returns
• Have purpose/ objectives
Similarities

• Require input (financial, manpower, material)

• Generate output (goods and/or services)
• Operate over space and time
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Projects Vs operations
Organizations perform two types of work: project work
and operational work
 Operations are ongoing and repetitive while projects
are temporary and unique.
 The purpose of a project is to attain its objective and
then terminate whereas the objective of an ongoing
operation is to sustain the business. 

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 Examples
 Government Vision: Freeing the Ethiopian People
from poverty and seeing economically strong and
prosperous Ethiopian people
 Government Goal: improving the living standard of
the Ethiopian People within ten years
 Government plan: GTP
 Government Program; Urban development program
 Government projects: Low cost housing projects,
Urban road construction projects, Rail way projects
Water and sanitation projects etc…

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1.4 Defining Project Management

 Project management is the process of planning,

organizing, directing and controlling a project from
its inception to its completion, in a given time, at
given cost, and for a given purpose.
 Project management is the application of knowledge,
skills, tools and techniques to project activities in
order to meet project requirements.

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1.5 Project Managers
 Project managers are important persons in a project
as they often make the difference between project
success and failure.

 S/he is responsible for planning, organizing and

controlling the project.

 It is the project manager who must define the project

goals, sell the project idea to top management, and
negotiate resources for the project.

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Roles of the Project Manager

Lead
Communicate

Define Plan Monitor Complete

Communicate

Re-Plan

The role of the project manager is to direct, supervise and

control the project from beginning to end.

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Skills a Project Manager Needs:

 Technical Skills  Conflict Resolution Skills

 Leadership Skills  Interpersonal skills

 Motivational Skills  Organizational skills

 Team-Building Skills  Communication skills

 Time management skill

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 The best project managers are:
 good motivators and leaders, coaching, and teaching
others on the team.
 “Big picture-oriented.”
 effective communicators.
 good organizers.
 goal-oriented.
 knowledgeable about and committed to the use of
project management procedures
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 1.6 The Project Life Cycle
 Is a continuous process made up of
separate and complementary stages
(phases) each with its own
characteristics and each setting a ground
for the next one.

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The project cycle
Identification

Evaluation Preparation

Proposal
development

Implementation Appraisal

Financing
decision

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“Our current problems cannot be solved
with the same level of thinking which
created them.”

Albert Einstein

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 Part Two

Project Identiofication

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 Session Objectives
After this discussion of this section we will be able to:

 identify feasible project ideas to solve a certain

problem or exploit opportunities, and
 apply different tools to identify and select feasible
project idea.

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Contents
 Concepts of project identification
 Sources of project ideas
 Steps in Project Identification and Selection
 Stakeholders analysis
 SWOT analysis
 Problem analysis
 Objective analysis
 Alternative Tree Analysis or Project Selection
 Logical framework
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 Group discussion
 Consider a project which you Know well. From where did
the idea for this project come from?
 How can potential projects be identified?
 Is problem identification the same as project identification?
 Who identify projects?
 Identify the major stakeholders for low cost housing
projects

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2.1 Project Identification
 Project identification is the initial phase of project
cycle.

- It begins with the conceiving of ideas or intentions to

set up a project.

- These ideas are then transformed into a project.

 In this stage, national development plans and
strategies are translated in to specific investment
projects based on felt human needs.
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 Project ideas are normally initiated by a perceived
need [PROBLEM or OPPORTUNITY] in an
organization and converted in to a formal project
proposal.
 But, what is a problem or opportunity ?
2.2 Sources of project ideas
 The community, researchers, experts, local leaders,
Policy makers, entrepreneurs, donors, NGOs,
Planners, etc
 Government policy priorities, unusual events, external
threats, unsatisfied demands, under utilized natural
resources, etc
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 Who identifies projects?
 Various organizations, whether local or foreign, state
owned or private, government ministries, development
banks, interest groups, CBOs, NGOs and of course
individuals can identify projects.

Approaches to project identification

(a)  Top-down approach

(b)  Bottom-up approach

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Top-Down Approach
 Projects are identified based on demands from beyond the
community.
 This may include directives from:
 international conventions (such as Kyoto Protocol/climate
change)
 international institutions that have determined particular
priorities and thus projects
 national policy makers identifying projects that pertain to
party manifestos and/or national plans.
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Bottom-Up Approach
 In this approach community/ beneficiaries are
encouraged to identify and plan the projects
themselves with or without outsiders.
 Project Identification in Both approaches:
 Involves needs assessment: collecting, processing
and analyzing data on problems/needs of communities
 Review of secondary data: look at books, survey
reports/ research papers, publications, media reports,
internet etc.
 Collecting and analyzing primary information via
interviews, community mapping, focus group
discussions and other methods

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Wherever initial project ideas come from we
must ensure that:
 They are consistent with Government’s policy, plan
and strategy
 They are consistent with the strategy and policy of
the donor(s) from whom we hope to attract funds
 They are agreed as priorities by the direct
beneficiaries of the assistance
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2.3 Steps in Project identification
 Stakeholders analysis
 Problem analysis
 Objective analysis
 Alternative tree analysis
 Log frame analysis

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1. Stakeholders Analysis
A stakeholder is an individual, group, or
organization who may affect, be affected by, or
perceive itself to be affected by a decision, activity,
or outcome of a project.
 Stakeholder analysis is a technique of gathering and
analyzing quantitative and qualitative information
about these SHs so as to determine whose interest
should be given priority throughout the project.
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Stake holder Analysis Cont……
 SHA identifies interests,
interests expectations,
expectations influences and
relative power of the stakeholders and relates them to
the purpose of the project

It helps to identify:
 Stakeholders who may affect or be affected (have
interest) by the project;
 Potential conflicts or risks that could jeopardize the
initiative

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Stake holder Analysis Cont….
 Groups that should be encouraged to participate in
different stages of the project;

 Those who are powerful actors in ensuring the project’s

success or failure

 Interest and views that should be given priority when

analysing the problems

 Strategies to tap the potential of stakeholders who are in

favour of the project and minimise negative impacts on
vulnerable and disadvantaged groups.

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Process of Stakeholder Analysis

Step 1: Group organization

Step 2: Detailed analysis

Step 3: Impact Assessment

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Step1: Group organization

Identify all people, group and institution who: has an

interest (positively or negative), contributes to or is affected
by or influence the project as follows:
 Target Groups (Beneficiaries): for which positive
change is desired
 Negatively Affected Groups: groups adversely affected
by the project
 Decision Makers: decision making authorities

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 Funding agencies: group which can bear expenses
 Implementing agencies: contractors,
 Community leaders: groups representing the
community
 Potential opponents: groups which may oppose or
obstruct a project
 Supporting groups: groups likely to cooperate with
the expected project
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Step2: Make a more detailed analysis
Make a more detailed analysis of each stakeholder in
terms of :
 Specific interests these stakeholders have in the
project( project’s benefit, damage or conflict for the
stakeholder).
 Powers of the stakeholder: the ability of the
Stakeholder to take effective action.
Step 3: Conduct Impact Assessment
 Estimate the value each stakeholders place on their
stake or interest in the project. The value can be
positive or negative

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Stakeholder’s analysis cont…..
 Assign value 5 for very high, 4 for high, 3 for moderate,
2 for low and 1 for not very important stake

 Assign a power level to each stakeholder. This rates the

ability of the Stakeholder to take effective action
 Assign value 5 for very high, 4 for high, 3 for moderate,
2 for low and 1 for very low power to take action
 Multiply the value of the stake/interest of stakeholder by
the power to take action. The result is an indication of
the stakeholder’s ability to secure their stake in the
project

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Stakeholder’s analysis cont….
 Consider the kind of things you could do to get
stakeholders support and reduce their opposition.
 How you approach stakeholders?
 What kind of support will they need?
 How important is to involve stakeholders?

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 Tool for stakeholders analysis
 The following worksheet can be used to conduct full
stakeholders analysis
stakeholder interest Potenti value Power value impact Relative strateg
s al to priority y
impact take
action

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Stakeholder’s Analysis Grid

High
Keep satisfied Mange closely

power
Monitor Keep informed
(minimum effort)

Low Interest High

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Stakeholder’s Analysis Grid cont….
Guidance for stakeholders map
 High power, high interest: fully engage these
people and make the greatest effort to satisfy them

 High power, less interest: make enough work to

satisfy these people

 Low power, high interest: keep these people

adequately informed, and talk to them to ensure that
no major issues are arising.
 Less power and less effort: monitor these people
but do not bore them with excessive communication

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Activity 2:1 (25 minutes)
Identify project ideas (by examining problems and opportunities
in the area) related to your business.
1.Housing problem in Addis
2.Water and sanitation problem in Addis
3.Road problem in Addis
4.---------------( any idea you may feel is important)
Required:
1.Conduct stakeholders analysis
2.Identify the priority interest needs to be given emphasis during
designing and project implementation.
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2. Problem Tree Analysis

Identifying a problem is half of the solution

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 2. Problem Tree Analysis
Purpose:

-to identify major problems and their main causal

relationships.

Output:

-a graphical arrangement of problems differentiated

according to ‘causes’ and ‘effects’

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Steps in Undertaking Problem Tree
1. Identify a “core” or central problem

2. List all the problems related to or stemming

from the core problem

3. Determine which related problems are causes

and which are effects of the core problem

4. Arrange the problems in a cause-effect

heirarchy around the core problem

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Problem Tree
EFFECT

CAUSE

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Example: Subject of the workshop is food security, the
possible problems mentioned in relation to this subject are:
 Food production on hills  Dikes are degraded
decreasing  Soil fertility on hill slopes
 Ethnic clashes in is decreasing
neighboring districts  Soil erosion on hill slopes
 Food shortages  Irregular supply of inputs
 High incidence of for rice production
malnutrition  High immigration rates
 Canals are blocked  Irrigation water does not
 Rice production in low reach fields in desired
lands decreasing quantity
 Poor maintenance of
irrigation facilities

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 High incidence of
Problem Tree malnutrition

Food shortages

Rice production Food production

in low lands High immigration
on hills decreasing rates
decreasing

Irrigation water does Irregular supply of Soil fertility Ethnic clashes in

not reach field in inputs for rice on hill slopes neighboring
Effect
desired quantity production is decreasing districts

Canals are Dikes are Soil erosion on

blocked degraded hill slopes

Cause

Poor maintenance
system for irrigation
facilities
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3. Objective Tree Analysis

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Objective tree
 An objective tree is a technique for identifying the
objectives that will be achieved as a result of solving
the problems cited in the problem tree.

 The objectives are also displayed as a series of cause

and effect relationships.

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 Incidence of
Malnutrition reduced
Diagram of objectives
Improved Food
situation

Rice production Food production

in low lands Lower
on hills increased immigration
increased
rates

Sufficient irrigation Regular supply of Soil fertility on Less ethnic

water reaches the inputs for rice hill slopes clashes in End
fields production increased neighboring
districts

Canals Dikes are Soil erosion on hill

cleared upgraded slopes reduced

Means

Maintenance
irrigation facilities
improved

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Alternative Tree Analysis
 is a technique for identifying alternative solutions
or course of action that can be used to achieve the
same or alternative objectives and the display of this
information in a simple format.

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 Incidence of
Malnutrition reduced
Diagram of Alternatives
Improved Food
situation

Rice production Food production

in low lands Lower
on hills increased immigration
increased
rates

Soil fertility on
Sufficient irrigation Regular supply of hill slopes
water reaches the inputs for rice increased
fields production
Less ethnic
clashes in
neighboring
districts
Canals Dikes are
cleared upgraded Soil erosion on hill
slopes reduced

Maintenance
irrigation facilities
improved
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Alternatives for decision:
 Let us assume that agricultural inputs are provided by
one NGO, soil conservation activities are already in
place by agriculture office, and conflict is on the
process to be resolved by one NGO.

 Therefore, the project will focus on the irrigation

system alternative

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 Activity 2.2 ( 25 minutes)
Take a moment and consider the project idea
you identified in the prvious section to conduct
the following analysises
Required:
Identify the central or the core problem
Prepare problem and objective trees
Generate as many alternative as possible to
solve the root causes of each problem
Based on sound evaluation select one
alternative project idea/ideas.
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4: Logical Framework Approach
(LFA)

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4: Logical Framework Approach (LFA)
 Is a four by four matrix, which enables the
decision maker to identify project purposes
and goals and plan for project outputs and
inputs.

 is useful in planning, analysis, follow up and

evaluation of the project.

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Important Terms in LFA
 Goal is the broader objective to which a project
contributes such as poverty reduction, income
increase, natural resource protection etc.
 The overall objective provides a link to the policy or
sector programme context.
 Purpose is the primary objective in terms of the
sustainable benefits for the target group or aim of the
project.

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Important Terms in LFA contiu’d
 Outputs: are tangible products or services that
a project delivers to a target population to
achieve the project purpose

Results are largely under the project

management’s control.

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Important Terms in LFA cont’d
 Inputs : Tasks undertaken in order to get the
project results
 Financial, human , material and information
resources available to implement the project

 Sector is the largest system of which a project

a part

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 Objectively verifiable indicators (OVI):
demonstrate the desired results have been
accomplished ( in terms of quality, quantity, cost
and time)
 Means of verification(MOV): sources of
information for the accomplishments of the project
 The logic: A vertical and horizontal logic.
 A vertical logic: clarifies why a project is being
undertaken. It specifies goal, purposes, outputs and
inputs
 A horizontal logic: identifies what is to be produced
and the evidence that will signal success.OVI, MOV
and assumptions.

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The Role of Assumptions in the Vertical Logic
• Once the activities have been carried out, and if the
assumptions at this level hold true, results will be
achieved;

• Once these results are achieved and the assumptions

at this level are fulfilled, the project purpose will be
achieved; and

• Once the purpose has been achieved and the

assumptions at this level are fulfilled, a contribution
to the achievement of the overall objectives will have
been made by the project.

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 Assumptions
• Describe necessary internal and external
conditions in order to ensure that the activities
will produce results
• Assumptions are risks, which can jeopardize the
success of the project
• Are worded positively, i.e. they describe
circumstances required to achieve certain
objectives

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• Assumptions should be relevant and
probable
• If an assumption is not important or almost
certain: Do not include
• If an assumption is unlikely to occur:
Killer assumption – abandon project

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Example of Assumptions for the Goal and
Purpose:
• Political – stability of government staff
• Economic – sustainable economy
• Adequate funds/materials.
• Skilled people – training needs.
• Approvals & contracts – legal, administrative.
• Participation of stakeholders.
• Etc.

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Activity 2.3 (15 minutes)

Prepare a Logical framework for the

project idea/ideas you selected in the
pervious section.

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 Part Three

Project Design/ Preparation

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Contents
 Pre-feasibility study
 Feasibility study
 Proposal writing

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Session Objective:
 After the session, you will be able to identify
feasibility study components and prepare
feasibility report/ project proposal/.

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 Reflection
 What is project design?
 What is feasibility study? Is it required for all
projects?
 Is there any difference between feasibility
study and project proposal?

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 Pre-feasibility Study
A preliminary selection stage of a project on the basis of
their market, technical, social, environmental, economic
and financial soundness

At this stage, the screening criteria are rough and vague,
becoming specific and refined as project planning advances

Sophisticated analysis of the technical, economic, social

and institutional aspects of the project is postponed to a
later stage and environmental considerations

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 Objectives of pre-feasibility study are to
determine whether:
 All project alternatives have been examined.
 A detailed analysis through feasibility study is
required.
 Functional or support studies are necessary.
 The investment opportunity is viable or not.
 the environmental situation at the planned site and
the potential impact is inline with the national
standards

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 Pre-feasibility is an intermediate stage
between opportunity/problem identification
and a detailed feasibility study.

 If the opportunity study [problem identification

stage] is well-prepared and comprehensive
enough, the pre-feasibility stage could be by-
passed.

 Hence, it is not always necessary to undertake the

pre-feasibility study.

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 Support study
 Support or functional studies cover specific
aspects of an investment project.
 Required as prerequisites for, or in support of,
pre-feasibility and feasibility studies
 Examples of these studies are:
 Market studies
 Raw material and factory supply studies
 Laboratory and pilot-plant tests
 Location studies
 Economies-of-scale studies
 Equipment selection studies
 Environment impact assessment

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 Feasibility study
 Feasibility study provides a comprehensive review
of all aspects of the project (marketing, technical,
financial, economic, and ecological)

 lays the foundation for implementing the project and

evaluating it when completed

 Focus on gathering, preparing and summarizing

relevant information about various projects aspects

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 A feasibility study should form the core
of the proposal preparation process. Its
purpose is to provide stakeholders with
the basis for deciding whether or not to
proceed with the project and for
choosing the most desirable options.

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Why in LDCs only few projects did
feasibility study?

Some of the reasons could be:

 Lack of enough skilled people;
 Unwillingness to spend;
 The use of non-numeric selection models
like:
 Sacred cow, officials decision
• Operating necessity, to keep the system in
operation
• Competitive necessity, to maintain
competitive advantage

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Elements of feasibility study
 Market analysis
 Technical analysis

 Organizational analysis

Political-legal analysis
 Financial analysis

 Economic analysis

 Social analysis, and

 Environmental analysis

 Cross –cutting issues

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Market analysis
 indicates the demand potential of the output of
the project:
• Demographic statistics

• Income levels of the people

 Market analysis should address the following

questions:
 Is the product for domestic or export consumption?
 Is the market large-enough to absorb the new product without
affecting the price?
 What share of the total market will the proposed product have?
 What marketing strategies and distribution channels are
required?

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Technical analysis
 Is concerned with the projects inputs
(supplies) and outputs of real goods and
services and the technology of production
and processing
 Its objective is to evaluate:
 The type of technology and its capacity,
 degree of integration (flexibility of manufacturing
system),
 the production processes involved,

 the inputs and infrastructure facilities

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Organizational analysis
 Institutional/ organizational structure
 Management of the project:
 Is focused on the following questions :
 Are authority and responsibility properly linked?
 Does the organizational design encourage
delegation of authority or do too many people
report directly to the project director?
 Does the project have sufficient authority to keep
its accounts in order and to make disbursements
promptly?
 is the project manageable? Team building,
motivation of employees and managers etc
119
Political-legal Analysis
  A politically feasible project may be referred to
as a "politically correct project."  Political
considerations often dictate direction for a
proposed project.  This is particularly true for
large projects with national visibility that may
have significant government inputs and political
implications.  

 Political feasibility analysis requires an

evaluation of the compatibility of project goals
with the prevailing goals of the political system.
All projects must also face legal scrutiny.

120
Financial analysis
 Financial viability of the project is
analyzed based on:
 Sources of funds/ estimates of cost of the
project,
 Return of the project /profitability,

 Financial analysis is based on market price of

goods and services
 It aims to see the feasibility from the view point
of entrepreneurs, investors and financiers
(from private costs and benefits)

121
Economic analysis
Economic analysis is basically concerned
with the following:
 how to identify effects of the project on
the society ;
 qualification of the effects of the proposed
projects; and
 pricing of costs and benefits to reflect their
values to society, shadow price

122
 Social analysis
 Examine the social implication of the project:
 income distribution to the low income
group
 adverse effects of a project on
particular groups
 The impact of the project on improving
the quality of life.
 Considering the contribution of
alternative projects in furthering the
same objectives.
123
Environmental Analysis
 The impact of the project on nature and its
habitat such as plants (forests), water, air,
wild and domestic animals, human beings,
etc.
 Some of the examples of the questions to be
asked are:
 What chemicals and wastes are emitted from
the project that will pollute air and water?
 What hazardous chemicals are used that will
harm the health of employees and the people
living around the project area?

124
Cross- cutting issues Analysis
 Cross- cutting issues, recently, have received great
attention in preparing any development projects.
Underestimation of these issues have resulted in
undesirable outcomes which include the lose of active
‘human labour, reduced productivity, under or over
utilization of the intended output/inputs, social
disruption, poor human health etc.
 Currently project promoters/implementers,
nevertheless, have shown increasing concerns about the
effects of these factors on the development project and
policy makers are also initiating these points to be
entertained in any development projects preparation and
implementations

125
In this context, cross-cutting
impacts have come to play a
determinant roll in the project
formulation exercises. These
cross cutting issues could be:
HIV/AIDS

Population

Gender issues

126
Who Conducts the Feasibility
Study?
 The government
 Donor agencies
 Consultants
 Any interested person who can afford to
do it

127
Feasibility study Vs Project Proposal
 Feasibility study-is required to make a
decision whether the project proposal is
technically and economically feasible?

 After finalization of project feasibility

study by the experts, the decision for going
ahead for preparation of the project
proposal will be made

128
 Project Proposal writing
 A project proposal is a detailed description of a
series of activities aimed at solving a certain
problem. It is a means of presenting the project
to the outside world in a format that is
immediately recognized and accepted.

 The proposal should contain a detailed

explanation of the justification of the project;
activities and implementation timeline;
methodology; and human, material and financial
resources required.

129
Elements of Project Proposal
 Title page: The title page should
indicate the project title, the name of
the lead organization (and potential
partners, if any), the place and date of
project preparation and the name of
the donor agency to whom the
proposal is addressed.

130
 Contents page: If the total project
proposal is longer than 10 pages, it is
helpful to include a table of contents
normally at the start of the document.
It should contain the title and
beginning page number of each
section of the proposal.

131
 Abstract (Executive Summary):
The abstract provides a brief
summary of the project. The abstract
should include the problem to be
addressed, the objectives to be
achieved, the implementing
organization, the key project activities
and the total cost (budget) of the
project.

132
 Context (Project Impact): This part
of the project should describe the
social, economic, political and cultural
background from which the project is
initiated.
 Beneficiaries (Target Groups): In
this part define the target groups and
show how they will benefit from the
project.
133
Project justification: Rationale should
be provided for the project. Due to its
importance usually this section is
divided into four or more sub-sections:
 Problem statement
 Priority needs
 The proposed approach (type of
intervention)
 The implementing organization

134
 Project Goals and Objectives:
Project goals are tools that help
members look ahead to plan what they
want to do. Often one major “goal” is
declared and then broken down into
various objectives. Write SMART
goal and objectives.

135
 Outputs (outcomes): Outputs are the
goods, services and change in
knowledge and attitudes produced as
a result of project activities which
contribute to achieving the objective.
 Project Description and
Background: This part shall include
the specific detailed description of
each activity.

136
 Human Resources: This part of the
project should describe the management
and implementation teams, their
experience and responsibilities.
 Project feasibility: This part of the
project shows the feasibility of the
project.
 Overall project value: This part shows
the added value of the project to the
higher education, institution, and the
other beneficiaries.

137
 Risks of the Project: This part of the
project shall include the main risks
(may occur) and the tools could be
used to overcome them.
 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
Plan: In this part specify how you will
monitor the progress of activities and
how you will be able to evaluate the
accomplishment of the overall goal of
the project.

138
 Implementation Plan: The
implementation plan should
describe activities and resource
allocation in as much detail as
possible.
 Activity plan (schedule) based on a
simple table or Gantt chart.
 Resource plan/based on budgetary
format/:
139
 Project Performance indicators: In this
part, specify the major project performance
indicators (SMART and Measurable project
performance indicators).
 Reporting: The schedule of project
progress and financial report could be set in
the project proposal.
 Annexes [if any]: for additional detailed
information

140
 Group Exercise 2:
 Develop a Project Proposal for the project
you have identified.

141
 Recap
So far:
Concept of project and project management


Stakeholder Analysis


SWOT Analysis


Problem, objective and alternative objective tree



Logical Framework Analysis



Project Proposal Writing



Today:
Project Appraisal ( Financial and Economic)


Project implementation


Monitoring and Evaluation



Tomorrow:
Monitoring and Evaluation…. Cont’d


Report writing

 The project cycle

Monitoring and
Identification
Evaluation

Implementation Formulation

Appraisal and
Financing decision
143
Project Mgt. Framework

Source: Schwalbe, 2015:12

144
 Part Four:

Project Appraisal

145
 Contents
Financial Appraisal
 The Costs of a Project
 Means of finance
 Accounting Income Vs Cash Flows
 Project Appraisal methods
Economic Appraisal
 Shadow Price
 How to do economic analysis,
 The application of social/economic NPV, BCR and
IRR.
Risk/Sensitivity Analysis

146
 Project Appraisal
 Projects can be appraised from the
view point of their beneficiaries or
losers (financial analysis) or from
the viewpoint of the entire society
(economic analysis).

147
 Financial analysis answers the question “is the
project financially profitable to a given individual,
group or business? In financial analysis costs and
benefits are valued at market prices
 Economic analysis answers the question- “is the
project profitable to the society or to a target
population as a whole? what is its impact (in terms
of job creation and linkages with the other sectors)
on the whole economy? In economic analysis costs
and benefits are valued at shadow prices

148
 Financial appraisal
 The investment Costs of a Project
Initial investment Costs of a project
 Land and site Development
 Buildings and Civil Works
 Plant and Machinery
 Technical know-how and engineering fees
 Miscellaneous Fixed Assets
 Capital issue expenses
 Pre-operative Expenses
 Provision for contingencies

Other costs
 Sunk costs
 Depreciation

149
 Operation Costs of a project
Direct and indirect costs:
 Direct costs are directly attributable to the
production
 Indirect costs are incurred to facilitate the
production process but are not the direct
inputs of production.
Variable costs and fixed costs:
 Variable costs are costs that vary with the
volume of the product
 Fixed costs are costs that do not vary with
the volume of the product.

150
Cost of production comprises of three
main factors:
 Cost of materials,
 Labor cost and

 Factory overhead

Cost of production = Material cost + labor

cost + factory overhead cost.
Total CostOf Pr oduction
CostOf Pr oduction perUnit
Total No.of Units

151
 Working Capital Estimates
Working capital is the financial requirement
needed to finance the current asset of the
balance sheet.
 raw materials, supplies and components
temporarily held in stock until usage,
 Work-in-process,
 finished goods until the time of selling,
 accounts receivable until payment made by the
customer, etc
 Net Working Capital = Current Assets –
Current Liabilities

152
 Means of Finance
 Government

 International organizations
 Partially international organizations and
partially government
 Entreprenuers (individually or in group)

 Individuals and govt.

153
 The major sources of capital of projects
that are aiming at making a commercial
profit are the following:
 Share Capital
 Bonds

 Term Loans

 Trade Credit

 Accrued Liabilities

 Incentive Sources

 Miscellaneous Sources

154
Cretiria to select the most suitable sources
 Cost
 Risk
 Control

 Flexibility

 Rules and Regulations of the govt.

and financial institutions

155
 Project Appraisal methods

The most common methods analysing the

financial feasibility of a project are:
 Return on investment
 Payback period

 Net present value

 Internal Rate of Return

 Benefit cost ratio

 Discounted pay back period

156
 Non discounted methods
Return on investment
 Payback period

 Discounted methods
Net present value method
 Benefit cost ratio

 Internal Rate of Return

 Discounted Payback Period

157
Return on Investment (ROI)
 Rate of return is the ratio of average
annual profits, to the capital invested. It
is the measure of profitability which
relates income to investment.
 The formula for computing the ROI is:

ROI = Average annual net income X 100%

Total Investment
 Decision criterion: the higher the ROI, the better
the project is.

158
 Payback Period
The payback period is the length of time
required to recover the initial investment.
 According to the payback criterion, the
shorter the payback period, the more
desirable the project is
 If the net cash inflow is uniform each
year, then,
Payback Period 
IntialInvestment
AnnualUniformCashInflow

159
 Example
 A project whose investment outlay is
100 million is expected to have a
uniform annual net cash inflow of 25
million for five years
IntialInvestment
Payback Period 
AnnualUniformCashInflow

100million
PaybackPeriod  4Yrs.
25million

160
 If the cash flows of a project are not uniform, the
payback period is calculated by accumulating a
series of cash flows until the amount reaches the
initial investment.
 Example,
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Cash flow -30000 5,000 12,000 12,000 6,000 8,000

The payback period = 3 years + 1000 * 12 = 3 yrs and 2 months

6000

161
 Net Present Value (NPV)
NPV is the difference between the present values of
the yearly net cash inflows and the initial
investment outlay
It is calculated using the following equation
CF1 CF2 CFn
NPV    ...   I0
1 k (1  k ) 2
(1  k ) n

 n CFt 
  (1  k ) t
NPV   
  I0
 t 1 

 CFt = cash flow of the t th period, k is the discount

 
rate, t is the number of periods between 1 and n.
162
The formula shows that we follow three steps to find
the NPV of the project:
 We multiply the cash flow of each year by the
discount factor of the same year to convert to its
present value
 We add the products to get the total value of the
project.
 We subtract the initial investment made at year
zero from the total present value to get the NPV
Decision : accept or reject and Ranking
If the NPV is positive, accept the project.
If the NPV is negative, reject the project.
If the NPV is zero, be indifferent
The higher the NPV, the better the project is
163
 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
Benefit – cost ratio is also referred to as profitability index. It
is an extension of the NPV approach to compare the
profitability of investment alternatives before arriving at
investment decision.

There are two ways of defining the benefit cost ratio:

a) PV to initial investment
PV
BCR = I

Where PV is present value of benefits and I is initial investment.

b) NPV to initial investment
NPV
I
NBCR = BCR – 1 or

164
 Decision rules:
 When BCR > 1 or NBCR > 0, accept the
project
 When BCR < 1 or NBCR < 0, reject the
project
 When BCR = 1 or NBCR = 0, be indifferent
 if we compare two or more projects, the
higher the BCR/NBCR, the better the
project is

165
 Internal Rate of Return
 IRR is the discount rate that makes the
present value of cash inflows equal to the
present value of cash outflows.
 Previously, we find the IRR of a project by
trying different discount rates until we
discover the discount rate that makes the NPV
zero. However, today it is easier to find IRR
of a project using Excel Application.

166
 It is the value of k in the following equation
 n CFt 
Investment    
 t 1 (1  k ) t

CFt = cash flow at the end of year
K = internal rate of return
T = life of the project

Decision Rule for IRR is

 Accept :if IRR is greater than the cost of capital
 Reject: if the IRR is less than the cost of capital
 indifferent: if the IRR is equal to the cost of capital
 If we are comparing two or more projects, the higher
the IRR, the better the project is.
167
 Economic Analysis
 Is a methodology developed for evaluating
investment projects from the point of view of
the society as a whole.
 Economic analysis is basically concerned
with: how to identify effects of the project
on the society ; qualification of the effects
of the proposed projects; and pricing of costs
and benefits to reflect their values to
society.
168
Rationale for Economic Analysis
Market imperfection
Externalities

Taxes and subsidies

Concern for savings

Concern for redistribution

Merit wants

169
 Net private benefits and net social benefits
are usually different due to the existence
of market imperfections, externalities ,
income redistribution, etc.
 In such circumstances, social cost analysis
must depend on shadow prices (instead of
market prices) to measure the net benefit
to the society.

170
Financial Vs Economic analysis
Financial Economic
 Financial analysis aims at appraising  economic evaluation deals with the
the financial and commercial economic contribution and impact of a
feasibility of a project from the view project at the macro or national or
point of an entrepreneurs, investor society level
or financier.  economic analysis takes into account
 financial appraisal covers only private social costs and benefits.
costs and benefits
 Taxes and subsidies are treated as
 Taxes are treated as costs and
subsidies as a return. transfer payments.
 Interest paid to external suppliers of  Interest on capital is never separated
money may be deducted to obtain the and deducted from gross return
stream of benefit available to the because it is part of the total return to
owner of the project. the capital available to the society as a
 For private enterprises, the overriding whole.
objective is financial viability (i.e.  In economic analysis, however, market
making profit) based on market prices may be adjusted to reflect social
price.
benefits. These adjusted prices are
called shadow or accounting prices.
171
 Therefore, market prices are often distorted
by:
 Taxes
 Monopolistic/Oligopolistic measures
 Subsidies
 Rent, Interest
 Quotas
 Regulatory measures
 Protection, etc

 And must be adjusted to reflect social value of

the project i.e., shadow price

172
 Shadow price measures the value of commodity from
point of view of the society or the economy of a nation.
 Shadow prices is the price used for analysing the cost
and benefit of a project when the market price is felt to
be a poor estimate of the economic value of a project.
 After estimating the shadow prices, we measure the
viability of the project through the normal process of
calculating NPV, IRR or CBR.
 We used conversion factor to change the market price
in to shadow price.

173
 Conversion Factor: is a number, usually less
than 1, used to multiply the domestic market
prices of goods/services and to get the
equivalent border prices so as to correct the
distortions in domestic prices of the same
goods/services.
 Conversion Factor is a ratio of shadow
price (SP) to market price (MP).
SP
CF SPMP * CF
MP

174
 SHADOW PRICES:
 To obtain shadow price, we have to make three
types of adjustments to the market prices. These are
 Economic Transfers
 Traded and non-traded goods
 Factors of production
 Labour [skilled and unskilled]
 Foreign Exchange

 Domestic Capital

 Land

175
 In economic analysis we consider the benefits of
the project to the society such as:
 Employment creation

 Foreign Exchange generation or saving

 Contribution to different sectors: such as

health, education, etc.
 Multiplier effect (on other economic variables
in the economy)
 Linkages (both forward and backward
linkages)
 Economies and diseconomies of scale

 Externalities, etc.
176
 Afterconsidering all these
variables, financially viable
projects may turn out to be
unviable economically.

177
 How to do economic analysis?
The starting point for economic appraisal of the
project will be a set of resources flow
valued at market price of particular year.
Then we have to break costs and benefits in to
different components. In this we:
• Eliminate all transfer payments from
the net cash flow statements (transfer
payments include taxes, subsidies,
social security,
security etc.)
178
• Distinguish foreign exchange cost and
revenues from domestic cost and
revenue and then apply appropriate
shadow prices of foreign exchange to
get real value
• Distinguish between tradable goods
and non-tradable goods and then apply
appropriate shadow prices for both types
of goods

179
• Desegregate labour input in to say
skilled and unskilled and apply relevant
shadow wage rate to different categories
of labour inputs (b/c the shadow wage
rate for unskilled is completely different
from that of the skilled labour)
• Apply relevant shadow price for land
• Carry out the PV calculations of the
adjusted resource flows using the social
rate of discount (r) to calculate
economic NPV, CBR and IRR.

180
 Consider the economic impact of the
project on the following:
 Savings in the society - if the project
contributes to saving then put a positive
premium and add it to the benefits; if not
increase the cost side.
 Investment - if the project contributes to
reinvestment, then put a positive premium and
include in the benefit side.

181
 Interpersonal Income distribution - if
the project contributes to income
distribution, then put a positive premium
and include in the benefit side.
 Regional Income distribution - if the
project is generating income to distressed
regions, put a positive premium and add
to the benefit. If it is adding income to the
well off to do region, then discount a
premium and add it to the costs.

182
 Aggregate Foreign Exchanges Costs &
Benefits: if the project brings in foreign
exchange, put a positive premium (Benefit). But
if it depletes the foreign exchange reserve, put a
negative premium.
 Impact of the project on Government revenue
and Expenditures: If projects lead to government
expenditure, discount that.
 Impact of the project on employment: if the
project creates employment opportunity, put a
positive premium and add to the benefit side.

183
 Additional issues in Economic Analysis:
• Sunk Cost: These costs should not be included to the cost of the
project because in economics we are interested on incremental (marginal)
costs.
• Consumer Surplus: is the difference between what
consumers are prepared to pay & what actually they pay. This surplus
should be included in the benefit side. At times it can be negative &
should be included in the costs.
• Externalities: are costs & benefits that the project causes to
other people or organizations. This should be included in the economic
analysis.
• Contingency: includes only what is actually used. Contingency
that is not used is excluded in the analysis.
• Inflation: to deal with inflation we use constant prices (while
current market prices are used in Financial analysis).

184
 Risk /Sensitivity Analysis
 The techniques of project analysis have
been considered so far as if the basic
data which they have used are known
with certainty. However, both
technical and economic information is
used in the form of forecasts and is
subject to considerable uncertainty.
185
 It is possible that an investment
goes ahead on the bases of
favourable appraisal of the project.
But subsequently ex-post
evaluation may indicate that the
appraisal was faulty and the
project should not take place.

186
 There are a number of areas which might account for
the faulty prediction of economic performance,
i.e., sources of error may be in any of the following:
 Problems in Prediction of technical performance:
 Underestimation of the project life time
 The quality & quantity of raw materials,
 Supply of imported inputs and spare parts
 Wrong assumptions of the physical quality and
quantity of your product
 Wrong rate of production expansion (production
capacity)
 Problem with the quality of the management skills.

187
 Estimation of shadow prices
 Prediction of macroeconomic conditions
 For example, availability may not be as
predicted
 Inflation rate may rise above expected

 Interest rate, example, deposit rate decrease

from 6% to 3%
 Changes in laws and regulations

 Weather may also affect particularly

agricultural projects

188
There are several ways of incorporating
uncertainty:
 Adding an item called "Contingency" (in %)
 Adding "a risk premium" to the
discount rate, i.e. use a higher
discounting rate (NPV decreases)
 Shorten the "life of the project"

 Use “Sensitivity Analysis".

189
 Sensitivity Analysis
 Measures of project worth are first calculated using the best
estimate of inputs and outputs and the discount rate. The
project decision will be based on these best estimates.
 However, how sensitive is a project in financial
prices and economic values?
 There might be:
an increase in construction costs,
an extension of the implementation period,
a fall in prices, etc.

190

190
 It is analytical tool to test systematically what
happens to the earning capacity of the project
if events differ from the estimates made about
them in planning.

• The key variables to which sensitivity analysis

could be applied include: skill and technology
requirements, Price of inputs, Price of
output, Operating Costs, Sales volume and
Initial cost outlay.
191

191
 Session Five:

Project Implementation,
Monitoring and
Evaluation

192
Project Implementation
 This stage involves transforming the project
proposal into the actual project or reality.
 Putting into practice the plans that had
earlier on been appraised following the
already laid down time table or work plan.
 It leads to the realization of project outputs
and immediate objectives.

193
 Project implementation refers to the
execution of all tasks that are
necessary to make the project
operational.
 The project implementation stage
brings the project from the feasibility
study stage to the execution stage.

194
Pre-requisites for successful project implementation
 Adequate formation

 sound project organization

 proper implementation planning

 timely available of funds

 judicious equipment tendering and

procurement
 efficient contract management

 effective monitoring, etc

195
 Forms of Project Organization
 Functional organization
 Projectized Organization
 Matrix organization

196
Functional structure:
 In this type of organizational structure, the
division of work is the most important part.
Jobs and activities are grouped together.
Staff can specialize in a particular business
area such as production or marketing and
follow well-defined career paths.

197
198
 Projectized Organization
 Projectized organization is an organizational structure that
focuses on projects. Projectized organizations derive their
name from the fact that they are built to do project work. The
project organization structure supports the completion of
project activities and provides an adequate level of oversight,
review and contribution from necessary parties.
 Project Managers are given both the authority, and the
responsibility, to manage virtually all aspects of the project.
They have the same authority as functional managers, and
project team members are the project managers’ subordinates.

199
200
 Matrix organizations
 Matrix organization is a blend of functional and
project organizations. It is an attempt to combine
functional and project structures in order to take
advantage of the strengths of both structures. In
matrix organization, project team members report to
both a functional manager and a project manager.
The most common form is that team members have
connected to project managers by dotted lines and
connected to their functional managers by solid
lines. Since team members report to multiple
managers, a clear communications plan is essential.

201
202
 Building Project Team
 Team building can be defined as the
"process of planning and encouraging
working practices that are effective and
which minimize the difficulties that obstruct
the team's competence and resourcefulness.”

“Coming together is a beginning

Keeping together is progress; and
Working together is success”
203
The benefits of team building are:
 Effective use of time,
 improved job satisfaction and

 improved self esteem and well

being
The team building process is based on the
type of the project, the leadership style
of the project manager and on the type of
individuals involved in the team

204
 Ground rules for an effective team
building:
• Clear purpose and Transparency
• Effective leadership
• Adequate financial and human resources
• Awareness and full participation
• Skills, experiences, ideas and information
• Information sharing and feedback
• Commitment and trust among team members
• The ability of developing synergy in the team

205
Problems in Project Implementation
1. Financial Problems
2. Management Problems
3. Technical Problems
4. Political Problems

206
 Project implementation planning
Comprehensive project planning covers the following:
 Planning the project work

 Planning the manpower and organization

 Planning the money

 Planning the information system

207
 Project objectives and policies
 Often the focus of project planning is on
questions like who does what and when.
 Before such operational planning is done,
the objectives and policies guiding the
project planning exercise must be
articulated.

208
 Work breakdown structure (WBS)
 It represents a systematic and logical breakdown
of the project into its component parts.
 It is constructed by dividing the project in to its
major parts, with each of these being further
divided in to sub parts.
 This is continued till a breakdown is done in
terms of manageable units of work for which
responsibility can be defined.
 

209
Thus, the work breakdown structure helps in:
 Effective planning by dividing the
work in to manageable elements which
can be planned, budgeted and
controlled.
 Assignment of responsibility for work
elements to project personnel and
outside agencies.
 Development of control and
information system.

210
 WBS and project organizations
 The project organization represents
formally how the project personnel and
outside agencies are going to work.
 The WBS defines the works to be done in
a detailed manner.
manner
 To assign responsibility for the tasks to
be done, the WBS has to be integrated
with the project organization
structure.

211
 Tools of planning
 Gantt chart
 Network Techniques

212
Bar or Gantt Chart

213
 A Gantt chart is a graphical
representation of the duration of tasks against
the progression of time.
 A Gantt chart is a useful tool for planning,
scheduling and monitoring projects.
The advantages of the bar chart are:
 It is simple to understand
 It can be used to show progress

 It can be used for manpower planning

214
The disadvantages of the bar chart are:
 It cannot show interrelationship among
activities on large , complex projects;
 There may be a physical limit to the
size of the bar chart, which may limit
the size of the project; and
 It cannot easily cope with frequent
changes or updating.

215
 Network Techniques
 In this technique, the
 activities,

 events, and
 their relationships

are presented by a network diagram, also

called an arrow diagram.  

216
The advantages of network technique:
 It can effectively handle inter relationships
among project activities
 It identify the activities which are critical to the
completion of the project on time ad indicate the
float (spare time ) for other activities
 It can handle very large and complex projects and
 It can be easily computerized and updated

217
 Drawbacks of network technique
 Being more complicated than the
traditional bar chart it is not easily
understood by the project personnel,
and
 It does not define an operational
schedule which tells who does what and
when.

218
 Basic Network terminologies
 An activity is a task or a job that takes
time and resources
 It is represented in a network by an arrow.
 The arrow doesn’t have any relationship
with a scale.
 Example: Excavate the land, Dig foundations,
Lay foundations, Build a wall, etc.

219
In a network analysis, it is important to
establish:
 The activities involved in the project,
 Their logical relationship, ex. Building
a wall comes after laying the foundation.
 An estimate of the time that an activity
is going to take

220
 An event is a point in time and
indicates the start or finish of an activity
or activities, e.g. wall built, foundations
dug, etc.
 An event is represented in a network by a
circle.

 The establishment of activities automatically

determines events because they are the start
and finish of activities.
221
 Dummy activity: an activity that
does not consume time or resources.
 It shows merely the dependencies or
proper relationship between
activities.
 A dotted arrow represents dummy.  

222
Network: this is the combination of activities, dummy
activities and events in logical sequence according to
the rules of drawing networks. Example:

223
 Activity Identification
 Short description: example, Lay foundation,
erect frame, etc.
 Alphabetic or numeric code: example, A, B,
C, etc., or 100, 101, 108 etc.
 Using tail and head event numbers:
example, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 3-6, etc

224
Example,
A building project consists of the following activities:
A = Lay foundation
B = Erect framework
C = install millwork
D = install wiring
E = install plumbing
F = plaster walls
G = install siding
H = decorate the interior
I = finish the exterior
225
The interrelationship among these
activities is as follows:
A should precede B
 B should precede C, D, E, F, and G

 C, D, E and F should precede H

 G should precede I

226
Given the above interrelationship the network
diagram for the project is:
A Network Diagram
4

H
1 A 2 3 7 9
B D
E
F 5

G 6
I

227
Network exercise 1
Activity Preceding Activity
A -
B _
C A
D A
E A
F C
G C
H C
J B, D
K F, J
L E, H, G, K
M E, H
N L, M

Draw the network diagram?

228
 Answer
3
M

7
E
8

A H
1
L N
0 C
G
4 6
D

B F

J K
5

229
 Time analysis
Time can be estimated in two ways:
 Single time estimates for each activity: this can be
based on the judgment of individual responsible or by
technical calculations using data from similar projects.
 Multiple time estimates for each activity: three time
estimates are made for each activity. They are Optimistic (O),
most likely (ML) and pessimistic (P). These three estimates
are combined to give an expected time as follows:
O  4 ML  P
ExpectedTime
6

230
 The Critical Path Method (CPM)
 The Critical path of a network gives the
chain of activities and the shortest time
in which the whole project can be
completed;
 There may be two critical paths and the
critical path can pass through a dummy.

231
 The Critical Path Method (CPM) cont....
 Earliest start time (EST): the earliest possible time
at which a succeeding activity start. Calculating the
EST is called the forward pass.
 Latest start times (LST): is the latest possible time
at which a preceding activity can finish without
increasing the project duration. Notes on calculating
LST (termed the backward pass).
 The Critical path is determined by selecting the
chain of activities where their ESTs are equal
to their LSTs. The other activities with
differences in their ESTs and LSTs are non-critical
activities.

232
 Example
2

3 3
B D

2 4

0 1 3 4 5
A C E F

0 0 1 1 1 3 4 6 1 7 7 2 9 9

• The Critical paths of this project are A, B, D and F.

• The total duration of this project is 9 days.
• The non-critical paths are C and E.

233
 Multiple time analysis
1

A D F

0.5, 1, 1.5
2, 3.5, 4 5.6, 7, 15 3, 4.5, 5.4

2
0 4
E

5,6,8
4,5,6

234
Activity Expected duration
O  4ml  p
ED
6

A 3.33
B 5.00
C 1.00
D 8.10
E 6.17
F 4.40

The critical path B, D and F

Project duration = 5+8.1+4.4 = 17.5

235
 Exercise
Activity Preceding Activity Activity durations (Weeks)
A - 9
B _ 3
C A 8
D A 2
E A 3
F C 2
G C 6
H C 1
J B, D 4
K F, J 1
L E, H, G, K 2
M E, H 3
N L, M 4

Required: Find the critical path and the duration for this project.

236
 Answer 3
M (3)

7
E (3) 8

N (4)
A (9) H (1)
1
L (2)
C (8)
G (6)
4 6
D (2)

B (3) F (2)

2
K (1)
J (4)
5

Critical path : A, C, G, L and N

Project duration : 29 Weeks
 

237
Monitoring and Evaluation

238
 Monitoring and Evaluation
What is Monitoring and Evaluation ?
What is Monitoring?
 “Monitoring is the systematic and continuous
assessment of the progress of a piece of work over
time.”
 It is the routine collection and analysis of information
to track progress against set plans and check
compliance to established standards.

239
 Monitoring and Evaluation…
 It is the systematic and routine collection of information
from projects and programmes for four main purposes:
1. To learn from experiences to improve practices and
activities in the future;
2. To have internal and external accountability of the
resources used and the results obtained;
3. To take informed decisions on the future of the initiative;
4. To promote empowerment of beneficiaries of the initiative.

240
241
Monitoring and Evaluation --- cont’d
What is Evaluation?
 “ An evaluation is the assessment at one point in time of the
impact of a piece of work and the extent to which the stated
objectives have been achieved.”
 It is a scientifically based assessment of the strengths and
weaknesses of the project.
 It deals with strategic issues such as project relevance,
effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and sustainability in the light
of the objectives formulated at the outset of the project.
Evaluation Includes:
1. Looking at the aims and objectives of the project.
2. Assessing the progress chosen to implement the project.
3. Looking at the strategy chosen to implement the project.
4. Assessing whether or not funds were used efficiently.
242
243
 Monitoring and Evaluation --- cont’d
 There are different ways to perform an evaluation:
1. Self-evaluation
2. Participatory evaluation
3. Rapid participatory evaluation
4. External evaluation
5. Interactive evaluation

244
 Monitoring and Evaluation --- cont’d
Types of evaluation
 According to evaluation timing:

1. Formative evaluation
 It takes place in the lead up to the project, as well as
during the project in order to improve the project
design as it is being implemented (continual
improvement).
 Formative evaluation often lends itself to qualitative
methods of inquiry.
 Is conducted at mid-term (also called periodic
evaluation) or semi-annually (also called process
evaluation)
245
 Monitoring and Evaluation --- cont’d
2.Summative evaluation
 It takes place during and following the project
implementation, and is associated with more
objective, quantitative methods.
 Is conducted only when the project has been
completed.
 Summative evaluation is also called terminal, final,
outcome, or impact evaluations.
 Summative evaluation falls into two categories: end
evaluation and ex-post evaluation.
3. Midterm evaluation: are formative in purpose and
occur midway through implementation.
246
 Monitoring and Evaluation --- cont’d
4. Final evaluations are summative in purpose and are
conducted (often externally) at the completion of
project/programme implementation to assess how
well the project/programme achieved its intend
objectives.
5. Ex-post evaluations
 According to who conducts the evaluation:

1. Internal or self-evaluation
2. External or independent evaluation
3. Participatory evaluations
4. Joint evaluations
247
 Six key steps for project/Programme M&E
1. Identify the purpose and scope of the M & E system;
2. Plan for data collection and mgt.;
3. Plan for data analysis;
4. Plan for information reporting and utilization;
5. Plan for M & E human resources and capacity
building;
6. Prepare the M & E budget.

248
 Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluation
What is an indicator?
 The quantitative or qualitative evidence that will
be used to assess progress towards an objective.

 Provide the basis for monitoring progress and

evaluating the achievement of outcomes.
 An objective may have more than one indicator.

249
 Different types of indicators

1. Process indicators
2. Impact indicators
3. Quantitative indicators
4. Qualitative indicators

250
Indicator tracking table (ITT) – for one quarter only

251
Designing Monitoring and
Evaluation Instruments

252
Commonly Used M & E Tools
1. Logical Framework,
2. Formats,
3. Observations and field visit checklists,
4. Report,
5. Questionnaires,
6. Interview guide /group and individual interview/,
7. Key informant interview guide,
8. Focus Group Discussion guide.

253
 M & E instruments design has five
components:
1. Clear statements of measurable objectives
e.g. Providing more equitable access to health
services.
2. A structured set of Indicators
Types of Indicators:
a. Input Indicators- are quantified and time-
bound statements of resources to be provided.
E.g. Vehicle operating costs for the crop extension
service.

254
 Designing Monitoring and Evaluation
Instruments
b. Process indicators -measure what happens during
implementation.
e.g. latest date for delivery of fertilizer to farm stores.
c. Output indicators- show the immediate physical
and financial outputs of the project: physical
quantities, organizational strengthening, and initial
flows of services. E.g. cost per kilometer of road
construction.

255
 Designing Monitoring and Evaluation
Instruments
d. Impact indicators refers to medium or long-term
developmental change. e.g. (education) continuation
rates from primary to secondary education by sex,
proportion of girls completing secondary education
e. Exogenous indicators are those that cover factors
outside the control of the project but which might
affect its outcome. e.g. currency exchange rates.

256
 Designing Monitoring and Evaluation
Instruments
3. Provision for Collecting Data and Managing Project
Records -so that the data required for indicators are
compatible with existing statistics, and are available
at reasonable cost.
 Indicators of inputs and processes will come from
project management records originating from field
sites.
 To measure output and impact may require the
collection of data from sample surveys or special
studies.

257
 Designing Monitoring and Evaluation
Instruments
4. Institutional arrangements for gathering, analyzing,
and reporting project data, and for investing in
capacity building, to sustain the M&E service.
5. Proposals for the ways in which M&E findings will be
feedback into decision making.

258
 Critical gaps in M & E in Ethiopian Context
1. Lack of attention to M & E during design;
2. Insufficient and timely resource allocation;
3. Unclear role and responsibilities of the M & E units;
4. Lack of commitment;
5. M & E seen as a mechanical exercise filling in the form
for project manager purpose and monitoring as a form of
data collection for report writing;
6. Lack of sustaining the M & E system;
7. Poor quality and irrelevant information produced through
monitoring;
8. Lack of sufficient and timely feedback;
259
 Critical gaps in M & E/Ethiopian Context…
9. Overlooking the stakeholders involvement in M & E;
10. Lack of cooperation and integration between project M & E
and project management;
11. Lack of accountability;
12. Lack of linking monitoring and evaluation activities -M & E
system not integrated;
13. Problems of mainstreaming the lessons learned;
14. Reports remain on the shelves without being discussed and
rectified;
15. Planning and post implementation M & E (planning process,
outcome and impact monitoring are overlooked;
16. Absence of comprehensive M & E guideline.

260
 Two Golden Rules of M & E
1. Do not define indicators that cannot be measured.
2. Do not collect data that are not useful for decision-
making or from which no lessons can be learned.

261
Data Collection, Analysis, M & E
and Report Writing

262
 Data Source and Method of Collection

 Data: Simply, it is raw facts.

 Information is data placed into a meaningful context
for its recipient.

263
 Sources of Data
1. Primary Data from primary sources via:
a. Semi-structured interview
b. Focus group
c. Structured interview
d. Direct observation
2. Secondary Data from Secondary sources:
a. Documentary research
b. Statistical and planning data

264
 Types of Data

1. Quantitative Data: Numbers

2. Qualitative Data: Words

265
 The Difference between Quantitative and
Qualitative Data
Quantitative Data Qualitative Data
 Number as data  Words as data
 Ask: How many? How  Ask: How? Why?
much?  Data collected through
 Data collected through interviews and observation
surveys  Generalizability is not a goal
 Generalizability is a goal  Use purposive, convenience,
 Use probability sampling snowball, or quota sampling
 Use a large sample size  Use a small sample size
 Goal: Prove/verify  Use: Discover/explore

266
 Data Collection Through Survey
Steps:
1. Plan the survey
2. Design survey materials
3. Conduct and supervise survey
4. Analyze and report survey data

267
 Data Analysis
 It comprises:
a. Data Compilation
b. Cross tabulation
c. Statistical analysis
d. Reporting

268
 Why do we analyze data?
 The purpose of analyzing data is to obtain usable and
useful information.
 The analysis, irrespective of whether the data is
qualitative or quantitative, may:
a) Describe and summarize the data
b) Identify relationships between variables
c) Compare variables
d) Identify the difference between variables
e) Forecast outcomes

269
270
 Monitoring and Evaluation Report
The M & E Report could be presented in two forms:
1. Narrative Report
The following information should be addressed in a narrative
report:
 Introduction. Significant developments in the reporting
period.
 Objectives and planned activities for the period.
 Were the objectives and the activities of the project
achieved?
 Did you meet any bottlenecks and/or problems? (If not, why?
What was done to deal with them?)
 Were you able to carry out the activities according to
schedule? (If not, why? What was done to adapt the
activities? )
271
Monitoring and Evaluation Report …
cont’d
 Has the target group been reached?
 Copies or samples of every material produced
during the project implementation, like posters,
leaflets, study reports, newspaper articles,
publications, training lessons and programs, etc.
 Objectives and planned activities for the next
period.
 Specific recommendations for any action
necessary to ensure that the project achieves its
objectives.
272
 Monitoring and Evaluation Report … cont’d
2. Financial Reports
Financial reports should address the following
information:
 An account of the progress made towards the
achievement of the project objective.
 An overview of expenditures during the reporting
period.
 An explanation of any deviation from the budget and
links to actual progress.
 An overview of the budget required for financial
activities and expected output over the next 12
months.

273
 Criteria of good reporting
1. Relevant and useful
2. Timely
3. Complete
4. Reliable
5. Simple and user-friendly
6. Consistent
7. Cost-effective

274
Project/program Mgt. Report Outline
1. Project/program information
2. Executive summary
3. Financial status
4. Situation/context analysis
5. Analysis of implementation
6. Stakeholder participation and complaints
7. Partnership agreement and other key actors
8. Cross-cutting issues
9. Project/programme staffing-human resource
10. Exit/sustainability strategy summary
11. PMER status
12. Key lessons
13. Report annex such as ITT
275
 Reporting Roadblocks
1. We don’t have the time
2. It doesn’t make a difference anyhow
3. Data analysis is for experts, not us
4. Fear of variance

276
 Project Closure Phase
 The last major phase of a project's life cycle
is project closeout. Project closeout is
performed once all defined project
objectives have been met and the customer
has accepted the project’s product. In this
phase, you will formally close your project
and then report its overall level of success
to your donor.

277
 Project Closing
 A successful project can be closed either by extinction
or by addition or by integration; whereas an
unsuccessful project can be terminated by starvation.
 A project can be said to be closed successfully only
when it has a proper final report in place.
 A final report contains all the knowledge gained from
the processes of the project. Project final report along
with the project records is the best source to gain
experience from previous projects and improve the
way future projects are handled.

278
The main functions of the project closeout
process are:
 to formalize project completion and disseminate
information to project participants;
 to assess the project and derive any lessons learned
and best practices to be applied to future projects;
and
 to verify that all work has been accomplished as
agreed and that the client or customer accepts the
final product.

279
 The project manager must ensure that the
project is brought to its proper completion. The
closure phase is characterized by a written
formal project review report containing the
following components:
 completion and closeout of any contractual agreements
with suppliers or providers
 formalizing customer acceptance
 closeout of any financial matters
 preparation of the project’s final performance report
 conducting a project review
 documenting lessons learned
 completing, collecting and archiving project records
 Celebrating project success.

280
 There are two processes that occur during
project closeout. These are contract closure and
administrative closure.
 Contract closure involves checking the work
for completeness and accuracy and
documenting formal project acceptance. In
other words, contract closure involves
verification that all work has been completed
correctly and satisfactorily, updating of
contract records to reflect final results, and
archiving information for future use.

281
Among other activities contract closure includes:
 Confirming the project has addressed the
terms and conditions of the contracts
 Confirming completion of exit criteria for
contract closure
 Formally closing out all contracts associated
with the completed project

282
Administrative closure involves gathering and
disseminating project closure information to
relevant parties, archiving files, and
documenting lessons learned. Among other
activities administrative closure includes:
 confirming the project has met all sponsor,
customer, and stakeholder requirements
 verifying that all deliverables have been
delivered and accepted
 validating exit criteria have been met
 

283
 A final project report contains a section on
performance of the project wherein the delivered
output is compared with the planned output, a
section on the performance or the administration of
the project, a section on the organizational structure
adopted and its implications on the performance of
the project and finally a section on the confidential
information to be reported to the top management
and the recommendations of the project manager on
ways of improving the processes.

284
 Ensuring sustainability
 Revisit the project outcomes, and consider the
changes the project will stimulate or enable
 Consider the take-up and embedding needed
to achieve the envisaged changes
 Formulate an exit strategy, which outlines:
– Access – Who will host the deliverables after the project
ends? Will they be available on the project web site? Have
other arrangements for hosting been made?
– Preservation – Where will the deliverables be preserved?
– Maintenance – What supporting documentation will be
needed to maintain deliverables, e.g. user manuals,
technical manuals? Will any ongoing maintenance be
needed and what will it cost?
– Intellectual property – What IP rights need to be cleared to
make sure deliverables can be accessible to the teaching,
learning, and community after the project ends?
 Consider deliverables or outputs that will be
sustainable in the long term
e.g., tools, guidelines, protocols, …that could be
used by other projects or that are useful for the
research community.
 Develop sustainability scenarios for these
outputs
Think about who might carry them forward, how,
and the issues that will need to be addressed to
make these outputs self-sustaining.
 Comments

288
289
 Best wishes!

290
 Thank you very much!
Wishing you continued success on your Project
Planning, Implementation, Monitoring and
Evaluation Journey!

291
 Goodbye!

292