DELPHI METHOD

Introduction
■ The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as
a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The
experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator
provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as
well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged
to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It
is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the
group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after
a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus,
stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final
■ Delphi method have been designed for normative and explorative use, particularly in
the area of social policy and public health.In Europe, more recent webbased
experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for
interactive decisionmaking and e-democracy
Delphi defined as….

■ An “organized method” for collecting views and information pertaining

to a specific area;
■ A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated
experts while serving an effective means for learning;
■ Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex
issues;
■ Collective human intelligence;
■ A process of exploring… assessing… and evaluating.
History

■ The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi

■ The Delphi method was developed at the beginning oft he Cold War
to forecast the impact of technology on warfare In 1944, General
Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army
Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used
by the military.
■ Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional
forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative
models or trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws
have not been established yet, quickly became apparent.
Key characteristics of the Delphi
method
■ Structuring of information flow The initial contributions from the experts are collected in
the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel
director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information
and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel
discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.
■ Regular feedback Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others
and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier
statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously
stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents
it.
■ Anonymity of the participants Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity
is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority,
personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process.
Role of the facilitator

■ The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as a

facilitator, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who
are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an
opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc.
and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and
present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then
common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not
reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to
gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.
Delphi..when it is appropriate ?

■ In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of a given policy

issue;
■ When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face meetings
difficult to arrange.
■ When the heterogeneity of the participants must be preserved and
anonymity assured.
■ Use it to explore an issue with a distributed group of people.
■ Use it move a group of people towards consensus.
HOW TO USE IT:

■ Define the problem

■ Give everyone the problem
■ Collate the responses
■ Give everyone the collection
■ Repeat as necessary
Description of each stage
■ Define the problem: Identify the problem that you want to work on, writing it down in a clear way that is easy
to understand. This can be in various forms , form a questionnaire to a broad and open question. You can
work on one problem and you can work on several problems at once. The constraint is usually the bandwidth
and expertise of the people in the Delphi group.
■ Give everyone the problem: Recruit people to the Delphi group. This includes anyone who has been selected
to contribute thinking on this project. There is seldom a meeting needed for Delphi work, making it ideal for
virtual teams. Delphi thinking can be done with a small group and it can be done with hundreds of people.
Around 20 people is fairly common size Send the problem or problems to everyone who is in the group and
ask them respond, You will have to handle a lot of feedback, so asking for short bullet-points will make things
much easier to deal with than rambling text.
■ Collate the responses: Take the responses that people send back to you and collate these into a single
anonyms list of sets of list. Make this as easy as possible for the people to read when you send it back out
again, but be aware of casing inappropriate bias. For example you may group responses into appropriate
headings, but with the caution that this might presuppose particular thinking. On the other hand, if you are
seeking creative ideas you may deliberately mix up the answers.
■ Give everyone the collation: Send the collation back out to everyone with the request to score each item on a
given scale. You may also allow them to add further items as appropriate. Remember to include the original
problem at the top of the page, along with instructions on what to do. You can also make responding easier
by putting the items in a table with space for the score.
■ Repeat as necessary: The process may now be repeated as many times as is deemed appropriate. If your are
seeking consensus and there was a wide range of responses, then this may require several iterations. In
particular at least a second round to see how others have scored can be very useful .
Advantages..

■ Opportunities for large number of people toparticipate;

■ Focus is on “ideas” rather than “individuals”;
■ Anonymity for participants which makecontributions of ideas a safe
activity;
■ Opportunities for participants to reconsider theiropinions;
■ Allows for identification of priorities.
Limitations…

■ Large amount of time to conduct several rounds;

■ The complexity of data analysis;
■ The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout
process;
■ The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly defined;
■ Self reporting data is subject to respondent’s biases and memories;
CONCLUSION

■ With all subjective inconveniences involved in any qualitative

techniques, Delphi method certainly is an almost mandatory analysis
of initiation on major investment issues and that because it can
explain at least the macro framework of the evolution on the interest
phenomenon. Even if the results made trough Delphi method may be
discussed and interpreted, it is remarkable that this method is usually
used when other method of study is no longer applicable. Such results
can define the evolution framework of the touristic phenomenon and
can impose measures and directions which must to be acted.