Programme Evaluation Review

Technique (PERT)
and
Critical Path Method (CPM)

Dr. Amruthaa Raman Nair, JR 2

Department Of Community Medicine
 CONTENTS
Introduction- Definition and Concept of Management

Management Techniques- Traditional and Modern

Modern Management Techniques

Network Analysis

PERT- Programme Evaluation Review Technique -Exercise 1

CPM - Critical Path Method-Exercise 2

 INTRODUCTION

What is Management ?
Art of getting things done, through and with people in
formally organized groups.

Art of creating environment in which people can

perform and individuals can cooperate towards
attainment of organisational goals.

- Harold Koontz
 To forecast ,to plan, to organise, to command, to
coordinate and control activities of others.

Like any other skill, management could be taught and

mastered once its basic underlying principles were
understood.
-Henry Fayol
Distinct process of
planning, organizing, actuating and controlling,
performed to determine and accomplish stated
objectives, by use of human beings and other
resources.

- George R Terry
 Health System Management

Purposeful and efficient use of health system resources

and to get members of health team coordinated to
work harmoniously, to achieve desired common goals
and objectives.
 MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES

Traditional and Modern Management techniques.

Traditional methods - Behavioural sciences.

Modern methods -Mathematics/statistics.

Operations research – Application of quantitative

mathematical methods and logic to find solutions
to managerial problems.
 Differentiate

Traditional Modern

Behavioral sciences: Mathematics,

Personnel selection, Information
training & retraining, Technology, Economics
motivation , leadership and Statistics
development,
supervision etc
 MODERN MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES
●
Time trends and forecasting
Statistical techniques ●
Decision theory and tree

●
Gantt chart and work scheduling
Activity analysis ●
Queuing theory

Mathematical ●
Network analysis -PERT ,CPM
●
Linear programming
techniques
●
Cost benefit analysis
Financial techniques ●
Cost accounting

Management By Objectives and Appraisal By Results

Miscellaneous
●
 Relevance of modern management techniques in health sector

Funding mechanism

Population need

Competing organizations within Health system.

Mathematical and statistical concepts

Increase efficiency by cost reduction.

Quantitative methods employed in other fields

 Project

Project - interrelated activities executed in

certain order for completion.

Activities interrelated in logical sequence

-precedence relationship

Project in form of network- to get solutions for

scheduling and controlling activities.
 Project management

Planning

Scheduling

Controlling
 Project management team

List activities.

Determine activity durations 

Assign activity relationships

Continous monitoring and progress reporting

 Tools: Gantt charts, PERT diagrams and CPM

 NETWORK ANALYSIS

Technique whereby
objectives are identified,
activities and tasks identified and
interrelationships graphically presented as
network and used as basis for determining
sequence of activities and allocation of resources.
Guidelines for network construction

Activities-represented by arrows .

Event : Point of time when a specific task is

accomplished(circles/squares)

Logical sequence- of events from start to end of project.

Time for each activity can be represented

Tail (Start) event and head (end) event for every activity.
Network have unique starting and completion node.

No activity represented by more than one arrow.

No two activities have same starting node and same

ending node

Dummy activity –imaginary activity-show precedence

only, no duration.
 Event 2(Head event)
C
2
Activity A 5 F
START 3 FINISH
1 B D
7

E
Tail event 4 6 H

G
 Predecessor activity
Activity that must occur before another activity.

Successor activity :
Activity that must occur after another activity
Activity-on-node (AON)
Nodes represent activities, and arrows show relationships
Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
Arrows represent activities and nodes denote events
Network analysis for measles vaccination programme

Monitoring, evaluation
Establishment of
,feedback system
surveillance

Training staff Vaccination

Decision to Identification of
programme
start staff
vaccination Development of
training Public
Local acceptance
material
epidemiological
information
Development Availability of
of IEC material vaccine
Knowledge of public
perception
Establishment of
cold chain
Fund availability
 Strengths

Simple to understand

Well described in practical terms

Applies to any project where activities are sequentially

described

Inexpensive
NETWORK ANALYSIS

Programme Evaluation and Review Technique

(PERT)

Critical Path Method (CPM)

Programme Evaluation Review Technique

U S Navy Polaris Missile Program

PERT – Scheduling tool

For planning and launching new

programs, products and services ,
mostly without precedence.
Diagrammatic representation of logical sequence of
events from start to end of project.

Involves planning,scheduling,monitoring and

controlling

Time taken for each activity not known

Ability to cope with uncertain activity times.

Activities as network using activity-on-arrow .
Uses probability estimate for timings of activities.

Three time estimates used in PERT

1. Most Likely Time (Tm)

2. Optimistic Time (To)

3. Pessimistic Time (Tp)

1. Most Likely Time (Tm)
Most frequently taken time in completing activity.
2. Optimistic Time (To)
Time taken for activity completion ,as per
predetermined plan.
3. Pessimistic Time (Tp)
Time taken for activity completion under adverse
conditions.
 EXERCISE :1

1. Draw a Project network diagram with given data?

2. Calculate expected duration and variance of each

activity?

3. Find critical path and project completion time?

4. What is the probability of completing the project on or

before 22 weeks?
MEAN DURATION/EXPECTED DURATION (Te)
 1) NETWORK DIAGRAM

2
D(2) 5
A(6)
I(5)

START B(3) 6
1 3 FINISH
E(3) 8
H (5)
C (4)
F(5)
4 7 J(3)

G(3)
2) MEAN DURATION AND VARIANCE

Mean duration/expected duration

Te = (To + 4Tm+ Tp) ÷ 6

Variance
2 2
σ = [(Tp –To ) ÷ 6 ]
 DURATION (IN WEEKS)
Mean
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSSIMISTIC duration variance
(To) LIKELY (Tp) (Te)
(Tm )

A - 5 6 7 6 0.11
B - 1 3 5 3 0.44
C - 1 4 7 4 1.00
D A 1 2 3 2 0.11
E B 1 2 9 3 1.78
F C 1 5 9 5 1.78
G C 2 2 8 3 1.00
H E,F 4 4 10 5 1.00
I D 2 5 8 5 1.00
J H,G 2 2 8 3 1.00
3) Critical Path and Project Completion Time

Early start time (ES) - Forward pass

ES y= Max ( ES x + Dxy )

Late finish time (LF)- Backward pass

LF x = Min (LF y –Dxy )

 Critical path

ES x = LF x

ES y = LF y

ES y - ES x = LF y –LF x = D xy
Expected Project completion time = C-F-H-G
(1-4-6-7 )
= 4+5+5+3 = 17 weeks
 4) Probability of completing the project on or
before 22 weeks?

Total Mean Duration (µ) = 4+5+5+3 = 17 weeks

Total Of Variance = 1.00+1.78+1.00+1.00 = 4.78

σ = Squareroot of Standard deviation=SR (4.78)=2.19

PROBABILITY(t<=22)= [ P(t-µ ) ÷ σ <= P(22-17 )÷ 2.19 ]

=P(2.28)

Probability distribution table= 0.9887= 98.87%

 Critical Path Method

James E Kelley of Remington Rand and

Morgan R Walker of Dupont in late 1950s.

Construction, aerospace and defense, software

development, IT , healthcare.

Visual technique:-Activities, activity dependencies and

durations in same diagram.
Earliest and latest that each activity can start and finish
without making the project longer

Critical path - Longest path of network diagram.

Critical activities

Optimal mix of cost and time is vital

Prioritize activities for effective management and
shorten critical path of project by:
“Fast tracking" (performing activities in parallel)
“Crashing the critical path” (shortening durations
of critical path activities by adding resources)
  KEY STEPS

List activities

Establish dependencies between activities

Draw network diagram

Determine activity durations

Longest path identified

 LIST ACTIVITIES

Work Breakdown Structure and Project Scope.

Project Scope - Deliverables required to complete

the project.

WBS divides project scope into meaningful work

packages.
 PROJECT SCOPE

Identify project needs

Confirm goals and objectives.

Project Scope description

Expectations and acceptance

Identify constraints

Identify necessary changes

WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE
Project

Deliverable 1 Deliverable 2
 SLACK OR FLOAT

Amount of time an activity /group of activities can

delayed without causing a delay to-

Subsequent tasks (Free Float)

Project completion date (Total Float)
Critical activity has zero float
EXERCISE: 2

1. Construct CPM network.

2. Determine critical path and project completion

time.

3. Compute total floats and free floats for non

critical activities.
 8/2 15/9 20/20
2 E(7) 5 J(5) 8
A(2) F(3) K(4 ) N(8)
5/5 16/16
1 B(5) G(3) L(3)
3 9
0/0 6

C(4) D(5) H(6) M( 12) 28/28

4 I (2)
7
10/10 16/12
 Floats calculation-Total float

Amount of time, that the completion time of an activity

can be delayed without affecting the project time.

TF xy = LFy- ESx - Dxy where x = initial activity

y = next activity

For activity A(1-2) TF=8-0-2=6

For activity B(1-3) TF=5-0-5=0 etc……….

Free floats

Amount of time each activity completion time can be

delayed without affecting earliest start time of
immediate successor activities in the network.

FF xy=ES y-ES x-D xy

For activity A (1-2) FF=2-0-2=0

For activity B(1-3) FF=5-0-5=0

ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR DURATION TOTAL FLOATS FREE FLOATS
A - 2 6 0
B - 5 0 0
C - 4 6 6
D B 5 0 0
E A 7 6 0
F A 3 11 11
G B 3 8 8
H C,D 6 0 0
I C,D 2 4 0
J E 5 6 6
K F,G,H 4 0 0
L F,G,H 3 9 9
M I 12 4 4
N J,K 8 0 0
 Critical activity
will have zero free float and zero total float
Strengths
Improve decision making

Activities, dependencies, durations in same diagram

Determine activities that can be delayed without

delaying the project.
 Differentiate
CPM-Deterministic
PERT-Probabilistic model
model
 No precedence  Precedence present
 Multiple time estimates  Time estimates known
 Emphasis on completion of  Emphasis on trade off
project in shortest possible between cost and
time. completion time
To conclude…
Management definitions
Management techniques
Network analysis
PERT
CPM
Exercises
 References

 WHO Modern management methods and organization of

health services
 P V Sathe and P P Doke-Texbook of epidemiology and
management
 Park’s Textbook of Preventive and social medicine
 AFMC textbook of community medicine
 Kauserwise management tutorials
THANK YOU