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Probability in Pipeline Risk Assessment

Dynamic Risk provides risk assessment services for over 35 pipeline operators and manages over 300,000 km of pipelines. It uses probability and statistical methods to evaluate the risk of pipeline failures. This includes estimating the probability of failures from threats like corrosion or equipment damage and predicting the potential consequences like injuries or environmental damage. Dynamic Risk creates models of hazards from pipeline ruptures using attributes like the pipeline characteristics and weather conditions to identify vulnerable areas and prioritize risk reduction spending.

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133 views27 pages

Probability in Pipeline Risk Assessment

Dynamic Risk provides risk assessment services for over 35 pipeline operators and manages over 300,000 km of pipelines. It uses probability and statistical methods to evaluate the risk of pipeline failures. This includes estimating the probability of failures from threats like corrosion or equipment damage and predicting the potential consequences like injuries or environmental damage. Dynamic Risk creates models of hazards from pipeline ruptures using attributes like the pipeline characteristics and weather conditions to identify vulnerable areas and prioritize risk reduction spending.

Uploaded by

nitish
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability Applications in

Pipeline Risk Assessment


Dynamic Risk…
•Founded in 1996
•Privately-held employee-owned
corp.
•~ 40 Staff
•Functional Workgroups:
Engineering

Software

Data Integration, GIS, mapping


•Head Office: Calgary
•Regional Offices: SSM, Houston

•>35 Operators
•>300,000 km of pipeline
Agenda
•What is Risk?
Some every-day examples
•Risk in Pipelines
Objective of risk assessment
•How we use math tools in risk analysis
Probability of Pipeline Failure
Common applications of these math tools
Predicting consequences of failure
•What happens when a pipeline breaks
•Video demonstration of fracture
propagation and arrest
What is Risk?
Risk = Probability x Consequences
Common Mortality Risks
Cause Risk
Per Year Per Lifetime
Auto Accident 1 : 6,500 1 : 83
Murder / Falling 1 : 16,500 1 : 210
Crossing Street 1 : 48,500 1 : 625
Drowning / Fire 1 : 88,000 1 : 1,100
Airplane Crash 1 : 400,000 1 : 5,000
Lightning 1 : 6,200,000 1: 80,000
Terrorist Attack 1: 7,000,000 1: 90,000
Asteroid Strike 1: 15,600,000 1: 200,000
Risk Assessment in Pipelines
Risk = Probability of Failure x Consequences
Probability of Failure:
 /km.yr
Consequences:
 Safety (fatalities)
 Environment ($ clean-up)
 Damages ($)
Units:
 Fatalities/km.yr
 $/km.yr
Risk Assessment - Why Bother?

Target Spending

 Risk profile identifies areas most in need of maintenance


 Enables limited $ to be spent where it will do the most good
 “Biggest bang for your buck”

 Identifies what is driving risk


 Helps focus activities
 Enables the correct fix to be applied
Probability of Failure - Threats

 External Corrosion
 Internal Corrosion
 Heavy Equipment
 SCC
 Earthquakes
 Floods
 Operator Error
 Material Defects
Estimation of Failure Probability
e.g. Corrosion

A
C

ILI B
Math Tools for Probability
•Deterministic Approach •Reliability Approach

•Discrete Inputs → •Probability of


Discrete Outputs outcome a function of
input distributions

B31G Limit State


Equation (Corrosion)
 d 
 1  0,85 
 f   t
 Vs
d
 1  0.85 M  1
 t 
Other Math Tools – “OR-Gate”

•Pfailure of each individual defect is “OR-


Gated” to determine Pfailure of entire
pipeline

    
PTot  1  1  Pf ,i  1  Pf ,i 1  1  Pf ,i  2  ...  1  Pf ,n 
Where:
Pf,I = Probability of failure of defect i,
Pf,i+1 = Probability of failure of defect i+1,
Pf,i+2 = Probability of failure of defect i+2,
Etc. ,
Common OR-Gate Problem

“Given two dice, what is probability of


rolling at least one 3?”
Other Math Tools – “Event Trees”
Common Applications - Event Trees

•Event Trees are another way of answering


the question:
“Given two dice, what is probability of rolling
at least one 3?”
Other Examples

“Given two dice, what is probability of rolling


a 3 two times in a row?”
OR / AND Rules
A Couple Last Examples…

1. “If you were given two dice, and two chances


of rolling those two dice, what is the probability
of rolling at least one 3 on both rolls?”

2. “If you were going to have two children,


what is the probability of having one boy and
one girl?”
Consequences of Pipeline Failure

Olympic Pipeline Failure,


Bellingham WA, June, 1999
Biggest Safety Threat – Thermal Radiation

Second-Order Effects:
 Projectiles
 Blast Over-Pressure
Modelling Hazard Radii

R a d ia l
d is ta n c e
fro m
 Function of ru p tu re
pipeline
diameter,
pressure,
valve spacing,
etc
R u p tu r e P o in t
P ip e lin e
 Overlay areas
of population
 Transportation 9 9 % L e t h a lity

corridors
5 0 % L e th a lity

1 % L e th a lity
Challenges in Modelling
Weather
 Wind speed
 Atmospheric Stability
 Atmospheric Temperature
 Surface Roughness
 Surface Temperature
 Solar Radiation Flux
Some Examples

TCPL Natural Gas Line 100-3, Cabri, SK, December, 1997


Gasprom Natural Gas Pipeline, Kiev, May, 2007
Gasprom Natural Gas Pipeline, Kiev, May, 2007
EPNG Natural Gas Pipeline, Carlsbad, NM, Aug, 2000
Acheson Well Blow-out, Edmonton, December, 2004
Acheson Well Blow-out, Edmonton, December, 2004
Fracture Propagation and Arrest Video

“…and then it blowed up real good”

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