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Binomial Probability Distribution & Poisson Probability Distribution

The document discusses the binomial and Poisson probability distributions. The binomial distribution describes the number of successes in n independent yes/no experiments, each with probability p of success. The Poisson distribution approximates the binomial when the number of trials is large and the probability of success is small. Key properties of both distributions including their formulas for mean, variance and examples are provided.

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71 views21 pages

Binomial Probability Distribution & Poisson Probability Distribution

The document discusses the binomial and Poisson probability distributions. The binomial distribution describes the number of successes in n independent yes/no experiments, each with probability p of success. The Poisson distribution approximates the binomial when the number of trials is large and the probability of success is small. Key properties of both distributions including their formulas for mean, variance and examples are provided.

Uploaded by

singh88dev
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Binomial Probability Distribution

&
Poisson Probability Distribution
Submitted to:
Dr. K.S. Harish

Submitted By:
19011
19012
Quantitative 19013
19014

Techniques - II 19015
19016
19017
19018
19019
19020
Definition of BPD

Binomial Distribution is a statistical


experiment which means the number of
successes in n repeated trials of a binomial
experiment. It is also called as Bernoulli
distribution or Bernoulli trial.
Properties of binomial distribution
1. Experiment consist of n identical trials
2. Each trial has only two outcomes
3. The probability of one outcome is p and the
other is q=1-p
4. The trials are independent
5. We are interested in x, the number of success
observed during the n trials.
Binomial Random Variable

• Random variable of a binomial experiment is


defined as the number of successes in ‘n’
trials.
• It is referred as binomial random variable.
Binomial distribution Formula
                
b(x; n, P) = nCx * Px * (1 - P)n – x
Or
P(x)= [n!/(x!(n-x!))]* Px (1-p) n – x

Here the Notation are,


B(x; n, P)   =  Binomial Probability.
X   =  successes
N   =  number of trials
P    =  Probability of success
nCx  = Number of combinations of n trials, x is success.
Mean

• The mean of a random variable whose


distribution is B(n , p) is given as:
• μ =np
variance & standard deviation

• The variance of a random variable whose distribution is B(n , p)

σ²= np(1-p)

• Standard Deviation is

• σ= np(1  p)
Example

• A die is tossed 6 times. What is the Probability


of getting exactly 2 fours?
Solution
Here n = 6, x = 2,  probability of success on a single trial =
1/ 6 or 0.167.
Therefore, The binomial probability is,
        b( 2; 6, 0.167 )      =  6C2 * ( 0.167 )2 * ( 1 – 0.167)6 – 2
                                        =  ( 6! / 2! * (6-2)!) * 0.0279 * ( 0.833)4
                                        =  (6! / 2! * 4!) * 0.0279 * 0.481
                                        = 15 * 0.0279 * 0.481
  b( 2; 6, 0.167 )       = 0.201.
Cumulative Binomial probability

• It  refers to the binomial probability falls


within a specified range that is greater than or
equal to a mentioned lower limit and less than
or equal to a mentioned upper limit.
Example

Cumulative binomial probability of


obtaining 5 or fewer heads in 10 times of a
coin.
b( x <= 5; 10, 0.5)=   b( x = 0; 10, 0.5) + b( x = 1; 10, 0.5)
+…… + b ( x = 5; 10, 0.5)        
Poisson Probability Distribution
•  A random variable is said to follows Poisson
distribution if it assumes only non-negative values
and its probability mass function is given by
Poisson distribution =    

Where
x means Poisson value
means rate of change
e means log function 
Poisson Experiment
• A Poisson experiment is Characterized by
– The probability of a success in an interval is the
same for all equal – size intervals.
– The probability of success in an interval is
proportional to the size of the interval.
– The probability of more than one success in an
interval approaches ‘0’ as the interval becomes
smaller.
Poisson Random Variable

• The Poisson Random Variable is the number of


successes that occur in a period of time or an
interval of space in a Poisson experiment.
Applications of Poisson distribution
• The following are some instance where the
distribution is applicable
– Number of deaths from a disease
– Number of suicide reported in a particular city.
– Number of defective materials in packing
manufactured by good concern.
– Number of printing mistakes at each page of the
book.
– Number of air accidents in some unit of the time.
Properties of Poisson Distribution
• The mean and variance are both equal to .
• The sum of independent Poisson variables is a
further Poisson variable with mean equal to
the sum of the individual means.
• As well as cropping up in the situations
already mentioned, the Poisson distribution
provides an approximation for the Binomial
distribution.
Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation

=mean

The Variance is given as


σ²=

The Standard deviation of Poisson Distribution is


given as
σ = sqrt ( Variance)
Example
• For example, if new cases of West Nile Virus in
New England are occurring at a rate of about 2
per month, then these are the probabilities
that: 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to 1000 to 1 million to…
cases will occur in New England in the next
month:
Poisson Probability table
X P(X)

0 2 0
e =.135
 2

0!

1 2 1
e =.27
 2

1!
2  2
2 2 e =.27
2!

3 2 3
e =.18
 2

3!
4 2 4 e 2 =.09
4!
5  

… …

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