Probability & Statistical Modelling

(AQ077-3-2-PSMOD VC1)

Introduction and Overview

 Lecturer Information

Lecturer Name: Adie Safian

Email: [email protected]
Telephone Extension:

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 Pre-requisites for this module

 Mathematics for Technology (MT) or

 Quantitative Skills (QSS)
 Or equivalent

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 Aims of this module

The aim of this module is to equip students

with the appropriate techniques to make
predictions under uncertainty and make
inferences about large populations from much
smaller samples.

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 Course Learning Outcomes, CLOs

 At the end of this module, YOU should be able to:

 Apply decision-making techniques, including probability
models and Bayes’ theorem.
 Model discrete and continuous variables using
appropriate distribution
 Analyze bivariate data, including correlation &
regression.
 Conduct summary measures of statistics and
interpretation of output of a statistical package
 Conduct estimation & statistical testing

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 Mapping of CLOs with MOEs Domain

MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

CLO1 √

CLO2 √

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 MQF and MOE Domains

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 Teaching Strategies

Situation Teaching Learning Activities

Activities
LECTURE Talk, explain, Listen, take notes, accept, query, discuss
clarify with peers, one-minute paper
TUTORIAL Set/answer Pre-read, prepare questions, learn from
questions, peers, critique, analyse
provide feedback

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 Assessment Methods

 Incourse Assessment 50%

• Assignment 40%
• Quizzes (2) 10%

 Final Exam 50%

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 Student Learning Time (SLT)

• Course Credit Value: 3

• Total Learning Hours:
 Lecture: 1 time 1 hour per week
 Tutorial: 1 time 2 hours per week
 Independent Learning Time:
Students must be responsible for their own learning and
define clearly independent learning time.

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 Methods of Delivery

Hence,
• We are now moving from the traditional topic
based teaching to outcome-based education

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 Outcomes Based Education (OBE)

• OBE is education based on producing

particular educational outcomes that:
Focus on what students can actually do
after they are taught
Expect all learners / students to
successfully achieve particular (sometimes
minimum) level of knowledge and abilities.

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 So…What is OBE?

It’s
NOT
What we want to teach,

It’s
What You should learn

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 Course Content Outline

 Chapter 1: Concept of Probability

 Chapter 2: Probability Distribution
 Chapter 3: Decision Making Techniques
 Chapter 4: Summary Measures of Statistics
 Chapter 5: Estimation & Confidence intervals
 Chapter 6: Hypothesis Testing
 Chapter 7: Regression & Correlation

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 What is expected of you
 You should abide to all the rules &
regulation of APU
 Proper attire
 No speaking of dialects
 Attendance is compulsory and valid medical
certificates or letters from parents /guardians
must support any absence from class.
 Three lateness will be equal to one absence
 All handphones should be turned off during
lectures.

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  Students doing things not related to the current
lecture will be asked to leave the room and
disciplinary action will be taken in accordance
with the Institute’s rules and regulations.
 Students should not leave the room during a
lecture except with the agreement of the
lecturer
 Students have to submit the EC form for late
assignment and missing from class test.

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 What support is available for you

 Consultation hours
 Resources
 Reference material
 Internet resources

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  Reference material
 Bluman, A. (2017). Elementary Statistics: A
Step By Step Approach, 10th Ed. McGraw-Hill
Higer Education. (ISBN:13:978-1259755330;
ISBN-10:1259755339).
 Sheldon M. Ross (2014). Introduction to
Probability Models,11th Edition. Academic
Press Inc, (ISBN:13: 978012409489, ISBN10:
0124079482).

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  Quiz format
Duration: 30 minutes
Answer all questions
Topics covered are
Chapter 1: Concept of probability (Quiz 1)
Chapter 2: Decision Making Techniques (Quiz 2)

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  Assignment format
Duration:
This paper consists four questions (each question
25 marks) and answer all.
Topics covered are
Chapter 1: Concept of probability
Chapter 2: Decision Making Techniques
Chapter 3: Summary Measures of Statistics
Chapter 4: Probability Distributions

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  Examination format
 Duration: 2 hours
 This paper consists of two Sections.
 Section A (10 Questions x 5 = 50 marks)
 Answer All
 Section B (2 Questions x 25 = 50 marks)
 Answer 2 out of 3 questions
 Calculators are permitted.

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  Topic covered are
 Chapter 2: Probability Distributions
 Chapter 5: Estimation and Confidence Interval
 Chapter 6: Hypothesis Testing
 Chapter 7: Regression & Correlation

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  Achievement requirements
Marks Alphabetical Grade Classification
80 – 100 A+ Distinction
75 – 79 A Distinction
70 – 74 B+ Credit
65 – 69 B Credit
60 – 64 C+ Pass
55 – 59 C Pass
50 – 54 C- Pass
40 – 49 D Fail(Marginal)
30 – 39 F+ Fail
20 – 29 F Fail
0 – 19 F- Fail
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 Question and Answer Session

Q&A

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 What we will cover next

 Concept of Probability

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