Hazard Analysis

Techniques
RENOVATIONS

BUILDING
Risk Assessment Training
 SUMMARY

1 Introduction
2 Accident Models
3 Event Tree Models
4 Fault Tree Models
5 Failure Modes and Effects
Analysis
6 Explosion and Fire Analysis
7 Gas Dispersion Analysis
8 Assessment of Health Effects
9 Strengths and Weaknesses
10 Additional Resources
1 Introduction RENOVATIONS

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 INTRODUCTION

 MODULAR SET OF STANDARD TRAINING MATERIALS RELATING TO

RISK ASSESSMENT
 BASIC CONCEPTS THROUGH TO SAFETY CASES
 INFORMATIVE OVERVIEW OR INTERACTIVE PRACTICAL
APPROACHES
 INFORMATIVE = CERTIFICATE OF ATTENDANCE
 INTERACTIVE PRACTICAL = SKILL ASSESSMENT BY EXAMINATION &
CERTIFICATE OF ACHIEVEMENT
 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES OF DOCUMENTS
 EMERGING BEST PRACTICES
 METHODOLOGY DOCUMENTS FOR FUTURE GUIDANCE
 INTRODUCTION

 MODULAR SET OF STANDARD TRAINING MATERIALS

RELATING TO RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES
 BASIC CONCEPTS THROUGH TO SAFETY CASES
 INFORMATIVE OVERVIEW OR INTERACTIVE PRACTICAL
APPROACHES
 INFORMATIVE = CERTIFICATE OF ATTENDANCE
 INTERACTIVE PRACTICAL = SKILL ASSESSMENT BY EXAMINATION
& CERTIFICATE OF ACHIEVEMENT
 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES OF DOCUMENTS
 EMERGING BEST PRACTICES
 METHODOLOGY DOCUMENTS FOR FUTURE GUIDANCE
 INTRODUCTION

 This Training Module covers such Tools and Techniques as:

 Accident Models
 Event Tree Models
 Fault Tree Models
 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
 Explosion and Fire Analysis
 Gas Dispersion Analysis
 Assessment of Heath Effects
2 Accident Models RENOVATIONS

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 ACCIDENT MODELS

 Basic diagram of progression of events.

 Address such events as;
 Minor Leaks,
 Major Leaks,
 Evaporation and Dispersion, and
 Fires and Explosions.
 One incident at a time, for interaction need more complex
method of analysis
 ACCIDENT MODELS

Small (25mm) Hydrocarbon

Leak

Yes
Jet Leakage Ignition Jet Fire

No

Yes
Liquid Pool Ignition Pool Fire

No

Drainage Yes Safe

Containment Containment

No

Yes Vapour Cloud

Evapouration Ignition
Explosion

No

Late
Vapour Cloud Remote Yes
Explosion
Dispersion Ignition
(UVCE)

No

Atmospheric
Dispersion
3 Event Tree Models RENOVATIONS

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 EVENT TREE MODELS

 Graphical Modeling Tool.

 Success / Failure Indication.
 Used with Fault Trees in QRA / Human Reliability
studies
 Multiple Plant Items / Scenarios.
 Recovery scenarios can be modeled.
 Probability of Success / Failure can be quantified.
 Used for selected Critical Hazards.
 Tools available to create on PC, can be drawn by hand
or graphics packages.
Failure Function

Initiating Event

SCRAM

Shutdown of high
pressure injection

Feed-water supply
and steam
delivery

Partial shutdown
to < 8 Mpa

Isolation of steam
generator

Leakage
supplementation

Long-term feed-
water supply and
steam delivery
b
b
b
b
b
b
b
a
b
a

Effects on core
a1
EVENT TREE MODELS
4 Fault Tree Analysis RENOVATIONS

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 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

 Again, graphical representation of sequence of events.

 Illustrates logic behind deductive reasoning,
 Multiple or single systems,
 Treatment of Common Cause Failures, and
 Qualitative or Quantitative Analysis.
 Pre-defined symbols.
 Events,
 Logic gates, and
 Basic events.
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
EVENT or CONDITION

AND

AND GATE: The event above will only occur

if all the conditions leading up to it occur.
OR

OR GATE: The event above will occur if any

the conditions leading up to the or gate occur.

BASIC EVENT: No further development of the

BASIC
tree is feasible beyond this level.

UNDEVELOPED EVENT: Further development of the tree is feasible

beyond this level, but not carried out in this particular fault tree.

OFF-PAGE CONNECTOR: Link to another page or another specific

Fault Tree diagram..
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

Signal A
Signal A

Signal B Output
Signal B Output Device
Device

Signal C Signal C

Output Occurs If: Signal A AND Signal B Occur

OR
Signal B AND Signal C Occur
OR
Signal A AND Signal C Occur

Assume this is System Success

Therefore, System Failure Logic Is

Output DOES NOT Occur If:

Signal A OR Signal B Occur
AND
Signal B OR Signal C Occur
AND
Signal A OR Signal C Occur
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

 System success criteria identified from;

 System design data,
 Process Flow Diagrams (PFD’s),
 Piping & Instrument Diagram’s (P&ID’s),
 Design Specifications,
 Codes and Standards, and
 Specific Calculations.
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
Insufficient Light
One bulb is required to provide sufficient
illumination

Battery
Light Bulb 1 Light Bulb 2

OR
Switch
No Power with Switch
Bulb Failure Switch Left Open
Closed

OR
AND

Bulb 1 Does Not Bulb 2 Does Not

Illuminate Illuminate Switch Failed Battery Dead

OR

OR
Bulb 1 Burned Out Bulb 1 Loose Bulb 2 Burned Out Bulb 2 Loose
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

 Failure
 Physical failure of component
 Operator failure (action)
 Fault
 Failure of component to operate correctly,
 Failure of an operator (action or timing)
 Primary Faults, within design parameters
 Secondary Faults, design parameter exceeded,
 Command Faults, incorrect place or time.
 Failure Effects, Failure Modes, Failure Mechanisms.
 Active Failures and Passive Failures.
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

 Top to Bottom,
 Write Fault Descriptors clearly,
 Small steps in logic,
 Minimal abbreviations (Defined and Documented)
 Minimal Cut Sets reduced by Boolean Algebra,
 True / False
 Succeed / Fail
 On / Off
 1/0
 Occurs / Does not occur
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

A B A B

“AND” “OR”
Intersection Union

Therefore:

A B AND = AB(Intersection) = AB
OR = A+AB(Intersection) = A
 FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

 Rearrangement Laws,
 Cancellation / Absorption Laws,
 Addition / Multiplication (Boolean),
 Common Cause Failures,
 Common Equipment,
 Shared Services,
 Manufacturers, Types, Maintenance Crew, Operators,
 Quantification – Worked Example
 Software automates development, quantification, Boolean
Algebra, minimal cut sets etc. – Fault Tree+, Isograph.
5 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis - FMEA
RENOVATIONS

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 FMEA

 Equipment Function,
 Functional Failure,
 Failure Modes,
 Failure Effects.
 Failure Classification,
 Hidden Failures
 Evident Failures
 Safety and Environmental Failures
 Operational Failures, and
 Non-operational Failures
 FMEA

 Hidden-Safety: maintain to prevent multiple failures,

 Hidden-Economic: maintain to prevent multiple failures,
where cost effective,
 Evident-Safety: maintain to reduce risk to acceptable levels,
 Evident-Operational: maintain if cost effective (repairs + lost
production),
 Evident-Economic: maintain if cost is less than repairs
 Failure Characteristics;
 Age related
 Incipient
 Random
 FMEA

No Is the failure evident to the Yes

Operations Associates under
normal conditions ?

Does the failure combined

Yes No Yes Does the failure pose a No
w ith one additional f ailure pose
threat to saf ety or the
a threat to saf ety or the
environment ?
environment ?

Hidden Safety Hidden Economic Evident Safety

Yes No
Does the failure directly aff ect
operational capability ?

Evident Operational Evident Economic

 FMEA

Typical Useful Life Value

90%
Typical Safe Life Values

10% 30%
Conditional Probability of Failure

Time in Service
Age Related Failures:
A - Constant probability of failure followed by a sudden increase in the wear-out region
B - Infant mortality followed by constant failure probability until the wear-out region is reached
C - Steadily increasing failure probability with no identifiable "Useful Life"
 FMEA

P-F Interval
Conditional Probability of Failure

P
Potential for
failure detected A
B
F
Failure occurs

Time in Service
Incipient Failures:
A - Constant resistance to applied stress with exponetial degradation from P to F on curve
B - Constant resistance to applied stress with linear degradation from P to F on curve
 FMEA
Conditional Probability of Failure

Time in Service
Random Failures:
A - Constant probability of failure at all times
B - Low probability of failure when new or reworked, followed by reasonably quick increase
to a constant level.
C - Infant mortality when new or reworked, rapidly decreasing to a constant level
6 Explosion and Fire Analysis RENOVATIONS

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 EXPLOSION & FIRE ANALYSIS

 Reactive and Flammable materials lead to fire and

explosions. Worker and Public Safety concerns.
 Chemical compounds used, flammability and explosive
limits,
 LEL and UEL
 BLEVE
 Sudden Release and Vaporisation,
 Fireball and radiated heat,
 UVCE
 Gradual release, build-up and ignition,
 Jet Fires and Pool Fires
 Radiated Heat, Smoke etc.
 EXPLOSION & FIRE ANALYSIS

Chemical Free Zone

Too Lean for Combustion

Lower Explosive Limit

Combustible Zone

Upper Explosive Limit

Too Rich for Combustion

Chemical L.E.L.(in%) U.E.L.(in%

)
Ammonia 16.0 25.0

 Heat Flux and Over Pressure effects,

Acetone 2.6 12.8

 TNT Equivalency model N-Octane 1.0 6.5

Hydrogen Cyanide 5.6 40.0

 EXPLOSION & FIRE ANALYSIS
Heat Flux Effect
(kW/m2)

1.75 Pain threshold reached after 1 minute

2 PVC insulated cables damaged

5 Pain threshold reached after 15 seconds

6.4 Pain threshold reached after 8 seconds. Second

degree burns after 20 seconds.

12.5 Wood ignites after prolonged exposure in the

presence of flames.

15 Limit for Class 2 Building Materials

16 Severe burns after 5 seconds

25 Wood ignites on prolonged exposure

30 Limit for Class 1 Building Materials

6 EXPLOSION & FIRE ANALYSIS
OverPressure Effect
(psi)

1 Knock people down

5 Rupture eardrums

15 Lung damage

35 Fatality threshold

50 50% Fatalities

65 99% Fatalities

0.5 – 1 Break windows

1–2 Break wood siding

2–3 Break cinder-block walls

5 Break wooden telephone poles

7 Gas Dispersion Analysis RENOVATIONS

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 GAS DISPERSION ANALYSIS

 Modelling of the potential impact of gas clouds resulting from

chemical compound releases,
 Flammable and / or toxic,
 Within plant and beyond boundaries,
 Different release scenarios,
 Instantaneous Spill,
 Continuous Release,
 Different weather conditions, topography, material
characteristics etc.
 Bernoulli’s equation for flowrate, Gaussian Equations for
Plumes
 Critical or choked flow, sub-critical flow
 GAS DISPERSION ANALYSIS

Wind Direction Pure Vapour Jet Wind Direction Immediately Resulting

Vapour Cloud

Vapour Space Vapour Space

Liquified Gas Under Pressure Liquified Gas Under Pressure

Figure 2.6.1.A. Small Hole in Vapour Space - Pressurised Tank Figure 2.6.1.B. Catastrophic Failure of Pressurised Tank

Wind Direction Wind Direction

Vapour Cloud

Vapour Space Vapour Space Vapour Cloud

Liquified Gas Under Pressure Liquid Jet 3
Liquified Gas Under Pressure

Liquid Jet 1

Liquid Jet 2

Figure 2.6.1.C. Intermediate Hole in Vapour Space - Pressurised Tank Figure 2.6.1.D. Escape of Liquids from Pressurised Tank

Wind Direction

Vapour Cloud

Vapour Space Evapourating Cloud

Liquified Gas Under Pressure Liquid Jet

S.S. SPILL
Boiling Pool
Liquid Pool in Bund
Liquid Jet 2
Figure 2.6.1.E. Escape of Liquids from Pressurised Tank Figure 2.6.1.F. Escape of Refrigerated Liquids to Water

Refrigerated
Liquids

Figure 2.6.1.G. High-velocity Fragmenting Jet

 GAS DISPERSION ANALYSIS

 Gas dispersion models considered approximate,

 Randomness and uncertancies of dispersion effects,
 Field tests have indicated a factor of two for modelling
against actual chemical concentration,
 Four sources,
 Vent systems,
 Tank filling operations,
 Fugitive emissions, and
 Accidental release.
8 Assessment of Health Effects RENOVATIONS

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 Assessment of Health Effects

 Chronic exposure: small amounts over long period of time.

 Acute exposure: large quantities over short duration
(accidental release),
 Five key steps;
 Characteristics of the chemical,
 Magnitude of potential release,
 Toxicity of chemical,
 Exposure to chemical by population,
 Characterize health risks.
 Assessment of Health Effects

 Immediate Danger to Life and Health (IDLH)

 Median Lethal Dose (LD50%)
 Median Lethal Concentration (LC50%)
 Acute Toxicity Concentration (ACT),
 Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL),
 Time-Weighted Average – Threshold Limit Value (TWA-TLV),
 Level of Concern (LOC) and Inhalation Dose Estimate (IEX)
9 Strengths and Weaknesses RENOVATIONS

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9 STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

 Addressed in each individual section above

10 Additional Resources
RENOVATIONS

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 Reading / WWW

 WWW at;
 www.google.com
 www.risknowlegy.com
 www.aicheme.org/ccps
 Reading;
 Risk Assessment and Risk Management for the Process Industry,
Greenberg and Kramer,
 Health and Environmental Risk Analysis, Louvar and Louvar, and
 Process Reliability and Risk Management, Sutton and Reinhold.
THANK YOU RENOVATIONS

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