2019 - 6 - Queueing Model
2019 - 6 - Queueing Model
11-1
A Basic Queueing System
Served Customers
Queueing System
Queue
C S
Customers CCCCCCC C S Service
C S facility
C S
Served Customers
11-2
Examples of Commercial Service Systems
That Are Queueing Systems
11-3
Herr Cutter’s Barber Shop
• The table shows his queueing system in action over a typical morning.
11-4
Arrivals
• The time between consecutive arrivals to a queueing system are called the
interarrival times.
• The expected number of arrivals per unit time is referred to as the mean
arrival rate.
• Most queueing models assume that the form of the probability distribution of
interarrival times is an exponential distribution.
11-5
The Exponential Distribution for Interarrival Times
P(x)
x
0 Mean Interarrival Time
11-6
The Exponential Distribution for Service Times
• The number of customers in the queue (or queue size) is the number of
customers waiting for service to begin.
• The number of customers in the system is the number in the queue plus the
number currently being served.
• The queue capacity is the maximum number of customers that can be held in
the queue.
• An infinite queue is one in which, for all practical purposes, an unlimited
number of customers can be held there.
• When the capacity is small enough that it needs to be taken into account, then
the queue is called a finite queue.
• The queue discipline refers to the order in which members of the queue are
selected to begin service.
– The most common is first-come, first-served (FCFS).
– Other possibilities include random selection, some priority procedure, or even last-
come, first-served.
11-8
Service
• When a customer enters service, the elapsed time from the beginning to the
end of the service is referred to as the service time.
• Basic queueing models assume that the service time has a particular
probability distribution.
• The symbol used for the mean of the service time distribution is
m = Expected service completions per unit time for a single busy server
11-9
Some Service-Time Distributions
• Exponential Distribution
– The most popular choice.
– Much easier to analyze than any other.
– Although it provides a good fit for interarrival times, this is much less true for
service times.
– Provides a better fit when the service provided is random than if it involves a fixed
set of tasks.
– Standard deviation: s = Mean
11-10
Labels for Queueing Models
To identify which probability distribution is being assumed for service times (and
for interarrival times), a queueing model conventionally is labeled as follows:
11-11
Choosing a Measure of Performance
• Managers who oversee queueing systems are mainly concerned with two
measures of performance:
– How many customers typically are waiting in the queueing system?
– How long do these customers typically have to wait?
• When customers are internal to the organization, the first measure tends to be
more important.
– Having such customers wait causes lost productivity.
11-12
Defining the Measures of Performance
11-13
Relationship between L, W, Lq, and Wq
11-14
Using Probabilities as Measures of Performance
• Statistics that are helpful to answer these types of questions are available for
some queueing systems:
– Pn = Steady-state probability of having exactly n customers in the system.
– P(W ≤ t) = Probability the time spent in the system will be no more than t.
– P(Wq ≤ t) = Probability the wait time will be no more than t.
11-15
The Dupit Corp. Problem
• Current policy: Each tech rep’s territory is assigned enough machines so that
the tech rep will be active repairing machines (or traveling to the site) 75% of
the time.
– When working continuously, each tech rep should be able to repair an average of 4
machines per day (including travel time)
– Goal is to have 3 repair calls per working day for each tech representatives
– Machines average 50 workdays between repairs, so assign 150 machines per rep.
– Under this policy, company has nearly 10,000 tech reps, with a total payroll
approx. $600 million per year
• Proposed New Service Standard: The average waiting time before the repair
process begins from six hours to two hours
11-17
Alternative Approaches to the Problem
11-18
The Queueing System for Each Tech Rep
• The queue: The machines waiting for repair to begin at their sites.
• Service time: The total time the tech rep is tied up with a machine, either
traveling to the machine site or repairing the machine. (Thus, a machine is
viewed as leaving the queue and entering service when the tech rep begins the
trip to the machine site.)
11-19
Notation for Single-Server Queueing Models
11-20
The M/M/1 Model
• Assumptions
1. Interarrival times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/l.
2. Service times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/m.
3. The queueing system has one server.
11-21
The M/M/1 Model
11-22
M/M/1 Queueing Model for the Dupit’s Current Policy
B C D E G H
3 Data Results
4 l 3 (mean arrival rate) L= 3
5 m 4 (mean service rate) Lq = 2.25
6 s= 1 (# servers)
7 W= 1
8 Pr(W > t) = 0.368 Wq = 0.75
9 when t = 1
10 r 0.75
11 Prob(W q > t) = 0.276
12 when t = 1 n Pn
13 0 0.25
14 1 0.1875
15 2 0.1406
16 3 0.1055
17 4 0.0791
18 5 0.0593
19 6 0.0445
20 7 0.0334
21 8 0.0250
22 9 0.0188
23 10 0.0141
11-23
John Phixitt’s Approach (Reduce Machines/Rep)
• The proposed new service standard is that the average waiting time before
service begins be two hours (i.e., Wq ≤ 1/4 day).
• John Phixitt’s suggested approach is to lower the tech rep’s utilization factor
sufficiently to meet the new service requirement.
11-24
M/M/1 Model for John Phixitt’s Suggested Approach
(Reduce Machines/Rep)
B C D E G H
3 Data Results
4 l 2 (mean arrival rate) L= 1
5 m 4 (mean service rate) Lq = 0.5
6 s= 1 (# servers)
7 W= 0.5
8 Pr(W > t) = 0.135 Wq = 0.25
9 when t = 1
10 r 0.5
11 Prob(W q > t) = 0.068
12 when t = 1 n Pn
13 0 0.5
14 1 0.25
15 2 0.1250
16 3 0.0625
17 4 0.0313
18 5 0.0156
19 6 0.0078
20 7 0.0039
21 8 0.0020
22 9 0.0010
23 10 0.0005
11-25
Additional Cost for M/M/1 model
• Recall that company’s payroll for 10,000 tech reps currently $600 million
annually.
• Decreasing the number of machines assigned to each tech rep from 150 to 100
would require hiring nearly 5,000 more tech reps to cover all the machines.
– Total machine to be repaired every 50 days approx. 1,500,000
– By assigning each tech rep with 2 machine per day, company should hire 5000
more tech rep
11-27
VP for Engineering Approach (New Equipment)
• The proposed new service standard is that the average waiting time before
service begins be two hours (i.e., Wq ≤ 1/4 day).
• The Vice President for Engineering has suggested providing tech reps with
new state-of-the-art equipment that would reduce the time required for the
longer repairs.
• After gathering more information, they estimate the new equipment would
have the following effect on the service-time distribution:
– Decrease the mean from 1/4 day to 1/5 day.
– Decrease the standard deviation from 1/4 day to 1/10 day.
11-28
M/G/1 Model for the VP of Engineering Approach
(New Equipment)
B C D E F G
3 Data Results
4 l 3 (mean arrival rate) L= 1.163
5 1/m 0.2 (expected service time) Lq = 0.563
6 s 0.1 (standard deviation)
7 s= 1 (# servers) W= 0.388
8 Wq = 0.188
9
10 r 0.6
11
12 P0 = 0.4
11-29
Additional Cost for M/G/1 model
• To provide each tech rep with new state of the art equipment to reduce
variance in repairing time, cost would be $500 million
– Each machine cost about $50,000
The M/M/s Model
• Assumptions
1. Interarrival times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/l.
2. Service times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/m.
3. Any number of servers (denoted by s).
• With multiple servers, the formula for the utilization factor becomes
r = l / sm
but still represents that average fraction of time that individual servers are
busy.
11-31
Values of L for the M/M/s Model for Various Values of s
Steady-state expected number of customers in the queueing system
100
10 s = 25
s = 20
s = 15
s = 10
s =7
s =5
s =4
s =3
0.5 s =2
0.2 s =1
0.1
0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0
Utilization factor rl
sm
11-32
CFO Suggested Approach (Combine Into Teams)
• The proposed new service standard is that the average waiting time before
service begins be two hours (i.e., Wq ≤ 1/4 day).
• The Chief Financial Officer has suggested combining the current one-person
tech rep territories into larger territories that would be served jointly by
multiple tech reps.
11-33
M/M/s Model for the CFO’s Suggested Approach
(Combine Into Teams of Two)
B C D E G H
3 Data Results
4 l 6 (mean arrival rate) L= 3.4286
5 m 4 (mean service rate) Lq = 1.9286
6 s= 2 (# servers)
7 W= 0.5714
8 Pr(W > t) = 0.169 Wq = 0.3214
9 when t = 1
10 r 0.75
11 Prob(W q > t) = 0.087
12 when t = 1 n Pn
13 0 0.1429
14 1 0.2143
15 2 0.1607
16 3 0.1205
17 4 0.0904
18 5 0.0678
19 6 0.0509
20 7 0.0381
21 8 0.0286
22 9 0.0215
23 10 0.0161
11-34
The M/M/s Model
• The probability of zero customers in the system is
• The Chief Financial Officer has suggested combining the current one-person
tech rep territories into larger territories that would be served jointly by
multiple tech reps.
11-36
M/M/s Model for the CFO’s Suggested Approach
(Combine Into Teams of Three)
B C D E G H
3 Data Results
4 l 9 (mean arrival rate) L= 3.9533
5 m 4 (mean service rate) Lq = 1.7033
6 s= 3 (# servers)
7 W= 0.4393
8 Pr(W > t) = 0.090 Wq = 0.1893
9 when t = 1
10 r 0.75
11 Prob(W q > t) = 0.028
12 when t = 1 n Pn
13 0 0.0748
14 1 0.1682
15 2 0.1893
16 3 0.1419
17 4 0.1065
18 5 0.0798
19 6 0.0599
20 7 0.0449
21 8 0.0337
22 9 0.0253
23 10 0.0189
11-37
Comparison of Wq with Territories of Different Sizes
Number of Number of
Tech Reps Machines l m s r Wq
11-38
Values of L for the M/D/s Model for Various Values of s
Steady-state expected number of customers in the queueing system
100
s = 25
10
s = 20
s = 15
s = 10
s =7
s =5
1.0 s =4
s =3
s =2
s =1
0.1
0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0
Utilization factor rl
sm
11-39
Priority Queueing Models
• General Assumptions:
– There are two or more categories of customers. Each category is assigned to a
priority class. Customers in priority class 1 are given priority over customers in
priority class 2. Priority class 2 has priority over priority class 3, etc.
– After deferring to higher priority customers, the customers within each priority
class are served on a first-come-fist-served basis.
11-40
Preemptive Priorities Queueing Model
• Additional Assumptions
1. Preemptive priorities are used as previously described.
2. For priority class i (i = 1, 2, … , n), the interarrival times of the customers in that
class have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/li.
3. All service times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/m, regardless of
the priority class involved.
4. The queueing system has a single server.
r = (l1 + l2 + … + ln) / m
11-41
Nonpreemptive Priorities Queueing Model
• Additional Assumptions
1. Nonpreemptive priorities are used as previously described.
2. For priority class i (i = 1, 2, … , n), the interarrival times of the customers in that
class have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/li.
3. All service times have an exponential distribution with a mean of 1/m, regardless of
the priority class involved.
4. The queueing system can have any number of servers.
r = (l1 + l2 + … + ln) / sm
11-42
VP of Marketing Approach (Priority for New Copiers)
• The proposed new service standard is that the average waiting time before
service begins be two hours (i.e., Wq ≤ 1/4 day).
• The mean arrival rates for the two classes of copiers are
– l1 = 1 customer (printer-copier) per workday (now)
– l2 = 2 customers (other machines) per workday (now)
11-43
Nonpreemptive Priorities Model for
VP of Marketing’s Approach (Current Arrival Rates)
B C D E F G
3 Data
4 n= 2 (# of priority classes)
5 m 4 (mean service rate)
6 s= 1 (# servers)
7
8 Results
9 li L Lq W Wq
10 Priority Class 1 1 0.5 0.25 0.5 0.25
11 Priority Class 2 2 2.5 2 1.25 1
12 Priority Class 3 1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
13 Priority Class 4 1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
14 Priority Class 5 1 1.75 1.5 1.75 1.5
15
16 l 3
17 r 0.75
11-44
Nonpreemptive Priorities Model for
VP of Marketing’s Approach (Future Arrival Rates)
B C D E F G
3 Data
4 n= 2 (# of priority classes)
5 m 4 (mean service rate)
6 s= 1 (# servers)
7
8 Results
9 li L Lq W Wq
10 Priority Class 1 1.5 0.825 0.45 0.55 0.3
11 Priority Class 2 1.5 2.175 1.8 1.45 1.2
12 Priority Class 3 1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
13 Priority Class 4 1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
14 Priority Class 5 1 1.75 1.5 1.75 1.5
15
16 l 3
17 r 0.75
11-45
Expected Waiting Times with Nonpreemptive Priorities
1 Later 1.5 1.5 4 0.75 0.3 workday (2.4 hrs.) 1.2 workday (9.6 hrs.)
2 Now 2 4 4 0.75 0.107 workday (0.86 hr.) 0.439 workday (3.43 hrs.)
2 Later 3 3 4 0.75 0.129 workday (1.03 hrs.) 0.514 workday (4.11 hrs.)
3 Now 3 6 4 0.75 0.063 workday (0.50 hr.) 0.252 workday (2.02 hrs.)
3 Later 4.5 4.5 4 0.75 0.076 workday (0.61 hr.) 0.303 workday (2.42 hrs.)
11-46
The Four Approaches Under Considerations
Decision: Adopt fourth proposal (except for sparsely populated areas where
second proposal should be adopted).
11-47
Some Insights About Designing Queueing Systems
2. Decreasing the variability of service times (without any change in the mean)
improves the performance of a queueing system substantially.
11-48
Economic Analysis of the Number of Servers to Provide
• When each server costs the same (Cs = cost of server per unit time),
SC = Cs s
• When the waiting cost is proportional to the amount of waiting (Cw = waiting
cost per unit time for each customer),
WC = Cw L
11-49
Acme Machine Shop
• The Acme Machine Shop has a tool crib for storing tool required by shop
mechanics.
• The estimates of the mean arrival rate l and the mean service rate (per server)
m are
l = 120 customers per hour
m = 80 customers per hour
• The total cost to the company of each tool crib clerk is $20/hour, so Cs = $20.
11-50
Excel Template for Choosing the Number of Servers
B C D E F G
3 Data Results
4 l 120 (mean arrival rate) L= 1.736842105
5 m 80 (mean service rate) Lq = 0.236842105
6 s= 3 (# servers)
7 W= 0.014473684
8 Pr(W > t) = 0.02581732 Wq = 0.001973684
9 when t = 0.05
10 r 0.5
11 Prob(W q > t) = 0.00058707
12 when t = 0.05 n Pn
13 0 0.210526316
14 Economic Analysis: 1 0.315789474
15 Cs = $20.00 (cost / server / unit time) 2 0.236842105
16 Cw = $48.00 (waiting cost / unit time) 3 0.118421053
17 4 0.059210526
18 Cost of Service $60.00 5 0.029605263
19 Cost of Waiting $83.37 6 0.014802632
20 Total Cost $143.37 7 0.007401316
11-51
Comparing Expected Cost vs. Number of Clerks
H I J K L M N
1 Data Table for Expected Total Cost of Alternatives
2
3 Cost of Cost of Total
4 s r L Service Waiting Cost
5 0.50 1.74 $60.00 $83.37 $143.37
6 1 1.50 #N/A $20.00 #N/A #N/A
7 2 0.75 3.43 $40.00 $164.57 $204.57
8 3 0.50 1.74 $60.00 $83.37 $143.37
9 4 0.38 1.54 $80.00 $74.15 $154.15
10 5 0.30 1.51 $100.00 $72.41 $172.41
$250
Cost of
$200
Cost ($/hour)
Service
$150 Cost of
$100 Waiting
Total Cost
$50
$0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of Servers (s)
11-52