Scribd
Upload
116 views20 pages

Class 2 - Poisson Distribution

The document discusses the Poisson distribution. It defines the Poisson distribution and its probability mass function. The Poisson distribution can be used to model random phenomena like the number of events occurring in a fixed period of time, provided the events happen with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. Examples are given like the number of car accidents or people using an ATM. Problems are presented and solved to demonstrate calculating probabilities using the Poisson distribution.

Uploaded by

kabbilaash kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
116 views20 pages

Class 2 - Poisson Distribution

The document discusses the Poisson distribution. It defines the Poisson distribution and its probability mass function. The Poisson distribution can be used to model random phenomena like the number of events occurring in a fixed period of time, provided the events happen with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. Examples are given like the number of car accidents or people using an ATM. Problems are presented and solved to demonstrate calculating probabilities using the Poisson distribution.

Uploaded by

kabbilaash kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 20

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

EXAMPLES

 We can use the Poisson


distribution to estimate the
probability of arrivals at a car
wash in one hour.
 The number of leaks in 100
miles of pipeline.
 The number of car accidents
in a day.
 The number of people who
use the ATM located outside
Simeon D. Poisson (1781-1840) the company at late night
Definition
If ‘X’ is a discrete random variable is said to
follow a Poisson distribution if it assumes only
non – negative values and its probability mass
function is given by

𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 = , where 𝑥 = 0,1,2……………∞
𝑥!
e= 2.71828
Note :
Mean = variance = 𝝀

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


𝐥𝐢𝐦 𝑩 𝒏, 𝒑 = 𝑷 𝒙
𝒏→∞
Poisson distribution is a limiting case of binomial
distribution under the following assumptions:

 The number of trials ‘n’ should be indefinitely large


i.e., 𝒏 → ∞

 The probability of success ‘p’ for each trial is


indefinitely small. i.e., 𝒑 → 𝟎

 𝒏𝒑 = 𝝀 , should be finite, where ‘𝝀′ is a constant.

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:1
Write down the probability mass function of the
Poisson distribution which is approximately equivalent
to B(100,0.02)

Answer:

Given n =100 , P=0.02 and np = 𝜆 ⟹ 100 ∗ 0.02 = 2


The Poisson distribution is:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥 𝑒 −2 2𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 = ⟹ 𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 =
𝑥! 𝑥!

where, 𝑥 = 0,1,2……………∞

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:2
If X and Y are independent Poisson variate such that
P(X=1) = P(X=2) and P(Y=2) = P(Y=3) then find the
V(X-2Y).

Answer:

P(X=1) = P(X=2) ⟹ 𝜆1 =2 [Mean & Variance]

P(Y=2) = P(Y=3) ⟹ 𝜆2 =3 [Mean & Variance]

V(X-2Y) = V(X)+4V(Y) = 2+4*3 = 14

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:3
Six coins are tossed 6400 times. Using the Poisson distribution,
what is the approximate probability of getting six heads in 10
times?

Answer:
1 6
Given n = 6400 𝑝 = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑝 = 𝜆 ⇒ 100
2
The Poisson distribution is:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 =
𝑥!
P(Getting 6 heads in 10 times)
𝑒 −100 (100)10
𝑃 𝑋=1 =
10!

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:4
The number of monthly breakdown of a computer is a random
variable having a Poisson distribution with mean equal to 1.8.
Find the probability that this computer will function for a month
with only one breakdown.

Answer:
Given 𝜆 =1.8
The Poisson distribution is:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 =
𝑥!
P(Computer will function for a month with only one breakdown)
𝑒 −1.8 (1.8)1
𝑃 𝑋=1 = = 0.2975
1!

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


EXAMPLES
• POISSON PROBABILITY FUNCTION
Patients Arrive At The KMCH
Emergency Room Of KMCH
Hospital At The Average
Rate Of 6 Per Hour On

Weekend Evenings.
What Is The Probability Of 4
Arrivals In 30 Minutes On A

Weekend Evening?

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Example KMCH

 Poisson Probability Function

λ= 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4

f (4)  3 4
(2.71828) 3
 .1680
4!

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:5
If 3% of the electric bulbs manufactured by a company are
defective. Find the probability that in a sample of 100 bulbs
exactly 5 bulbs are defective.

Answer:
Given n = 100, 𝑝 = 3% 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑝 = 𝜆 ⇒ 100 ∗ 0.03 = 3
The Poisson distribution is:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 =
𝑥!
P(exactly 5 bulbs are defective)
𝑒 −3 (3)5
𝑃 𝑋=5 = = 0.1008
5!

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:6
A manufacturer of pins knows that 2% of his products are
defective. If he sells pins in boxes of 100 guarantees that not
more than 4 pins will be defective. What is the probability that
a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality?

Answer:
Given n = 100, 𝑝 = 2% 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑝 = 𝜆 ⇒ 100 ∗ 0.02 = 2
P(More than 4 defective) = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 4 = P(x=0)+…………P(x=4)

𝑒 −2 (2)0 𝑒 −2 (2)1 𝑒 −2 (2)2 𝑒 −2 (2)3 𝑒 −2 (2)4


= + + + +
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
4 2
=𝑒 −2 1 + 2 + 2 + + = 0.9473
3 3
P(a box will fail to meet the guarantee quality) = 1 − 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 4 = 0.0527

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:7
The atoms of a radioactive element are randomly disintegrating.
If every gram of this element, on average, emits 3.9 alpha
particles per second, what is the probability that during the next
second the number of alpha particles emitted from 1 gm is (i) at
most 6 (ii) at least 2 (iii) at least 3 and at most 6.

Answer:
Given 𝜆 = 3.9
P(at most 6) = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 6 = P(X=0) + ………. P(X=6) = 0.899

P(at least 2) = 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 2 = 1 – P(X < 2) = 0.901

P(at least 3 and at most 6) =𝑃 3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6 = P (X=3) + P(X=4) +P(X=5) + P(X=6)


= 0.646

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Problem:8
A manufacturer knows that the condensers he makes contain on
the average 1% defectives. He packs them in boxes of 100.
What is the probability that a box picked at random will contain
3 or ore faulty condensers.

Answer:
Given n = 100, 𝑝 = 1% 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑝 = 𝜆 ⇒ 100 ∗ 0.01 = 1
P(3 more faulty condensers) = 𝑃 𝑋 ≥ 3 = 1-P(X<3)

𝑒 −1 (1)0 𝑒 −1 (1)1 𝑒 −1 (1)2


=1- + +
0! 1! 2!

1
=1 - 𝑒 −1 1+1 + = 0.08025
2

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Fitting a Poisson distribution
Expected Frequency or Theoretical frequency: N P(X=x)

Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data and calculate the


theoretical frequencies:

Deaths 0 1 2 3 4
Frequency 122 60 15 2 1

Answer:
σ 𝑓𝑥
Mean = 𝜆 =
σ𝑓
= 0.5 , N=200
P(X=x) = N P(x=0) + N P(x=1) + ……………………+ N P(x=4)

The theoretical frequencies are given below:


121 61 15 3 0

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Exercise
Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data which gives the
number of yeast cells per square for 400 squares.

Deaths 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Frequency 103 143 98 42 8 4 2 0 0 0 0

Answer???...

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Applications

Application of Poisson Distribution:


Arrival pattern of defective vehicles in a workshop,
‘patients in a hospital’ or ‘telephone calls

Demand pattern for certain spare parts

Number of fragments from a shell hitting a target

Spatial (happening in space) distribution of bomb hits

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


Using Excel to Compute
Poisson Probabilities
 Formula Worksheet =Poisson (x, mean, False (pmf) )

A B
1 3 = Mean No. of Occurrences (m )
2 3.00
Number of
3 Arrivals (x ) Probability f (x )
4 0 =POISSON(A4,$A$1,FALSE)
5 1 =POISSON(A5,$A$1,FALSE)
6 2 =POISSON(A6,$A$1,FALSE)
7 3 =POISSON(A7,$A$1,FALSE)
8 4 =POISSON(A8,$A$1,FALSE)
9 5 =POISSON(A9,$A$1,FALSE)
10 6 =POISSON(A10,$A$1,FALSE)

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


 Poisson Distribution of Arrivals

Poisson Probabilities
0.25

0.20
Probability

0.15
actually,
0.10 the sequence
continues:
0.05
11, 12, …
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes

16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution


16MA1004 – UNIT III : Poisson Distribution

You might also like