Discounted Cash Flow Model
Discounted Cash Flow Model
Debt: “ Once you’ve acquired a business, you’ve also acquired its debt” .If
someone were to acquire that company, they would also acquire
responsibility for that debt.
Cash and Cash Equivalents: Once you’ve purchased a business, you own
the cash that is sitting in the bank.. In effect, it serves to reduce your
acquisition price; for that reason, it is subtracted from the other components
when calculating enterprise value.
POINTS TO KEEP IN MIND WHILE CALCULATING EV
the more debt and the less cash a company has, the more expensive
owning it will be, since the debts must be paid off and there's little cash
to offset the interest.
On the other hand, those with high debt and low cash suffer the loss of
profits through interest payments, and are also at risk of bankruptcy if
business goes south and they can no longer afford to cover interest
obligations.
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
MODEL
INTRODUCTION
In finance, the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach describes a
method of valuing a project, company, or asset using the concepts of
the time value of money. All future cash flows are estimated and
discounted to give their PV. The discount rate used is generally the
appropriate WACC, that reflects the risk of the cashflows.
Usually 5- 15 years
Condition business reach a steady state at
the end of the period
Theoretically-Choice and length have no effect
on value
Practically –indirect effect on value
Eg- return on new invested capital >cost of capita
during explicit period & equals thereafter
B. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)
Sum of all cash flows to all investors
(debt+equity)
Also called financing flow
FCFF = operating free cash flow (FCF)
+
non operating cash flow
FCF = NOPLAT (NET OPERATING PROFIT LESS ADJUSTED TAXES)
– net investment
or
net FA &CA at end of the year
- net FA & CA in beginning of the year
Non operating cash flow arises from extraordinary items like profit from sale
of assets, restructuring expenses and payments for settling legal disputes
(adjusted for taxes)
C. Develop the free cash flow
forecast
Checklist
Develop a credible sales forecast
Rely on complete projections
Treat inflation consistently
Look at multiple scenarios
STEP 2. COST OF CAPITAL
The discount rate used to convert the expected
free cash flow into its present value.
Conditions
Weighted average of all sources of cost of capital
Post tax terms
Based on market value
Reflects the risks borne by various providers of
capital
WACC= r {e} (S/V) + r{p} (P/V)+r{d} (1-T) (B/V)
Where
WACC- weighted avg cost of capital
r {e}
S- market value of equity
V- market value of firm
r{p}- cost of preference capital
P- market value of preference capital
r{d}- pre tax cost of debt
T- marginal rate of tax applicable
B- market value of interest- bearing debt
While calculating -Weights are provided according to market value
STEP 3. CONTINUING VALUE
It is value the explicit of free cash flow beyond forecast
period
assumptions
Earns a fixed profit margin
Constant rate of return on capital
Reinvestment rate is constant
Growth rate is constant
Steps
1. Choose an appropriate method
2. Estimate the valuation parameters & calculate the
continuing value.
Growing free cash flow perpetuity method
CV t = (FCF t+1) / WACC –g
Value driver method
CVt = [NOPLAT t+1 ( 1-g/r)] / WACC –g
Replacement cost method
Market to book ration method
Where
CVt = continuing value at end of the year t
g- expected growth rate for free cash flow for ever
R- expected rate of return on net new investement
STEP 4 .FIRM VALUE
Is sum of following 3 components
1. PV of Free Cash Flow during the explicit
forecast period
2. PV of continuing value at end of explicit forecast
period.
3. Value of non operating assets , which were
ignored in the free cash flow analysis
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