LECTURE:03

SIMULATION &
MODELING
CONTENTS

 Discrete Event Simulation Model

 Model Development
 Three Model Levels
 Verification v/s Validation
 Steps In Simulation and Model Building
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
At the end of the lecture, the students shall be able to
 Define Discrete Event Simulation Model
 Explain Model Development
 Explicate Three Model Levels
 Differentiate Verification v/s Validation
 Enlist the Steps Involved In Simulation and Model
Building
DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION (DES)
MODEL
 The state variables change only at a countable number of
points in time. These points in time are the ones at which
the event occurs/change in state.
 Example: logistics chain involving a truck
 it arrives at a warehouse;
 it enters a loading gate;
 it unloads its supplies;
 and then it leaves the warehouse.
In the example above, you will see that each step is a
separate — i.e., discrete — event. In order to simulate this
process, you will typically use a discrete event simulation
model.
MODELING PROCESS
DES MODEL DEVELOPMENT

How to develop a model:

1) Determine the goals and objectives
2) Build a conceptual model
3) Convert into a specification model
4) Convert into a computational model
5) Verify
6) Validate
Typically an iterative process
THREE MODEL LEVELS

 Conceptual
Very high level
How comprehensive should the model be?
What are the state variables, which are dynamic, and
which are important?
 Specification
On paper
May involve equations, pseudo code, etc.
How will the model receive input?
 Computational
A computer program
General-purpose PL or simulation language?
VERIFICATION & VALIDATION
The simulation model is valid only if the model is an accurate
representation of the actual system, else it is invalid.
 Verification
Computational model should be consistent with
specification model
Did we build the model right?
 Validation
Computational model should be consistent with the system
being analyzed
Did we build the right model?
Can an expert distinguish simulation output from system
output?
 Interactive graphics can prove valuable
STEPS IN SIMULATION AND MODEL
BUILDING

1. Define an achievable goal

2. Put together a complete mix of skills on the team
3. Involve the end-user
4. Choose the appropriate simulation tools
5. Model the appropriate level(s) of detail
6. Start early to collect the necessary input data
STEPS IN SIMULATION AND MODEL
BUILDING(CONT’D)

7. Provide adequate and on-going documentation

8. Develop a plan for adequate model verification
(Did we get the “right answers ?”)
9. Develop a plan for model validation
(Did we ask the “right questions ?”)
10. Develop a plan for statistical output analysis
 DEFINE AN ACHIEVABLE GOAL

“To model the…” is NOT a goal!

“To model the…in order to select/determine
feasibility/…is a goal.
Goal selection is not cast in concrete

Goals change with increasing insight

PUT TOGETHER A COMPLETE MIX OF
SKILLS ON THE TEAM

We Need:

 Knowledge of the system under investigation

 System analyst skills (model formulation)

 Model building skills (model Programming)

 Data collection skills

 Statistical skills (input data representation)

PUT TOGETHER A COMPLETE MIX OF
SKILLS ON THE TEAM(CONT’D)

We Need:
 More statistical skills (output data analysis)
 Even more statistical skills (design of experiments)
 Management skills (to get everyone pulling in the same
direction)
INVOLVE THE END USER

 Modeling is a selling job!

 Does anyone believe the results?
 Will anyone put the results into action?
 The End-user (your customer) can (and must) do all of the
above BUT, first he must be convinced!
 He must believe it is HIS Model!
CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE SIMULATION
TOOLS

Assuming Simulation is the appropriate means, three

alternatives exist:
1. Build Model in a General Purpose Language

2. Build Model in a General Simulation Language

3. Use a Special Purpose Simulation Package

MODELLING W/ GENERAL PURPOSE
LANGUAGES
 Advantages:
 Little or no additional software cost
 Universally available (portable)
 No additional training (Everybody knows…(language X) ! )
 Disadvantages:
 Every model starts from scratch
 Very little reusable code
 Long development cycle for each model
 Difficult verification phase
GEN. PURPOSE LANGUAGES USED FOR
SIMULATION
FORTRAN
 Probably more models than any other language.
PASCAL
 Not as universal as FORTRAN
MODULA
 Many improvements over PASCAL
ADA
 Department of Defense attempt at
standardization
C, C++
 Object-oriented programming language
MODELING W/ GENERAL SIMULATION
LANGUAGES
 Advantages:
 Standardized features often needed in modeling
 Shorter development cycle for each model
 Much assistance in model verification
 Very readable code
 Disadvantages:
 Higher software cost (up-front)
 Additional training required
 Limited portability
GENERAL PURPOSE SIMULATION
LANGUAGES
 GPSS
 Block-structured Language
 Interpretive Execution
 FORTRAN-based (Help blocks)
 World-view: Transactions/Facilities
 SIMSCRIPT II.5
 English-like Problem Description Language
 Compiled Programs
 Complete language (no other underlying
language)
 World-view: Processes/ Resources/ Continuous
GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION
LANGUAGES (CONT’D)
 MODSIM III
 Modern Object-Oriented Language
 Modularity Compiled Programs
 Based on Modula2 (but compiles into C)
 World-view: Processes
 SIMULA
 ALGOL-based Problem Description Language
 Compiled Programs
 World-view: Processes
GEN. PURPOSE SIMULATION
LANGUAGES (CONT’D)
 SLAM
 Block-structured Language
 Interpretive Execution
 FORTRAN-based (and extended)
 World-view: Network / event / continuous
 CSIM
 process-oriented language
 C-based (C++ based)
 World-view: Processes
MODELING W/ SPECIAL-PURPOSE
SIMUL. PACKAGES
 Advantages
 Very quick development of complex models
 Short learning cycle
 No programming--minimal errors in usage
 Disadvantages
 High cost of software
 Limited scope of applicability
 Limited flexibility (may not fit your specific
application)
SPECIAL PURPOSE PACKAGES USED FOR
SIMUL.
 NETWORK II.5
 Simulator for computer systems
 OPNET
 Simulator for communication networks, including
wireless networks
 COMNET III
 Simulator for communications networks
 SIMFACTORY
 Simulator for manufacturing operations
 Simulink, Visual Slam, ARENA
 THE REAL COST OF SIMULATION

Cost of a simulation: the software package price.

There are actually at least three components to the cost of
simulation:
1. Purchase price of the software
2. Programmer / Analyst time
3. “Timeliness of Results”
MODEL THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL(S) OF
DETAIL
 Define the boundaries of the system to be
modeled.
 Some characteristics of “the environment”
(outside the boundaries) may need to be
included in the model.
 Not all subsystems will require the same level of
detail.
 Control the tendency to model in great detail
those elements of the system which are well
understood, while skimming over other, less well -
understood sections.
START EARLY TO COLLECT THE NECESSARY
INPUT DATA

 Data comes in two quantities:

TOO MUCH!!
TOO LITTLE!!
 With too much data, we need techniques for reducing it to a
form usable in our model.
 With too little data, we need information which can be
represented by statistical distributions.
PROVIDE ADEQUATE AND ON-GOING
DOCUMENTATION

In general, programmers hate to document. (They

love to program!)
Documentation is always their lowest priority item.
(Usually scheduled for just after the budget runs
out!)
They believe that “only wimps read manuals.”
What can we do?
 Use self-documenting languages
 Insist on built-in user instructions
 Set (or insist on) standards for coding style
DEVELOP PLAN FOR ADEQUATE MODEL
VERIFICATION

 Did we get the “right answers?”

(No such thing!!)
 Simulation
provides something that no other
technique does:
 Step by step tracing of the model execution.
 This provides a very natural way of checking the
internal consistency of the model.
DEVELOP A PLAN FOR MODEL
VALIDATION

VALIDATION: “Doing the right thing”

“Asking the right questions”
How do we know our model represents the system
under investigation?
 Compare to existing system?
 Deterministic Case?
DEVELOP A PLAN FOR STATISTICAL
OUTPUT ANALYSIS

 How much is enough?

Long runs versus Replications

 Techniques for Analysis

REFERENCES
 Reference slides of Introduction To Modeling and Simulation
prepared by Dr. Arfan Jaffer
 (24/09/2019) retrieved from:
https://mosimtec.com/insights/discrete-event-simulation-
examples/
 (24/09/2019) retrieved from:
https://www.tutorialspoint.com/modelling_and_simulation/mo
delling_and_simulation_verification_validation.htm