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Machine Learning
Pertemuan 1
Introducing Machine Learning

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Introducing Machine Learning

• Science fiction stories

EARLY STAGES

LATER…

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Introducing Machine Learning

• Science fiction stories

THE EVOLUTION THANKFULLY !!

Programmer
machines still require
user input

The machines' evolution takes an ominous turn once

the computers become sentient and learn how to teach
themselves.
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Introducing Machine Learning

• Your impressions of machine learning  Artificial Intelligence
• In reality, machine learning is focused on more practical
applications
• Machine learning is more like training an employee than raising a
child.
• You will learn:
• The origins and practical applications of machine learning
• How knowledge is defined and represented by computers
• The basic concepts that differentiate machine learning approaches

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The origins of machine learning

• Since birth, we are inundated with data.

• The earliest databases recorded information from the observable

environment.
• Today, such observations are increasingly automated and recorded
systematically in ever-growing computerized databases.
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The origins of machine learning

• The invention of electronic sensors has additionally contributed to an
increase in the richness of recorded data.
• Between databases and sensors, many aspects of our lives are
recorded.
• Governments, businesses, and individuals are recording and reporting
all manners of information from the monumental to the mundane.
• Weather sensors record temperature and pressure data, surveillance
cameras watch sidewalks and subway tunnels, and all manner of
electronic behaviors are monitored: transactions, communications,
friendships, and many others.

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The origins of machine learning

• Big Data era? But human beings have always been surrounded by
data.
• What makes the current era unique is that we have easy data!

• We now live in a period with vast quantities of data that can be

directly processed by machines.
• Much of this information has the potential to inform decision making,
if only there was a systematic way of making sense from it all.

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The origins of machine learning

• The field of study interested in the development of computer
algorithms for transforming data into intelligent action is known
as machine learning.

Machine learning algorithms are virtually a prerequisite

for data mining but the opposite is not true. In other
words, you can apply machine learning to tasks that do
not involve data mining, but if you are using data mining
methods, you are almost certainly using machine
learning.

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Uses and abuses of machine learning

• Predict the outcomes of elections
• Identify and filter spam messages from e-mail
• Foresee criminal activity
• Automate traffic signals according to road conditions
• Produce financial estimates of storms and natural disasters
• Examine customer churn
• Create auto-piloting planes and auto-driving cars
• Identify individuals with the capacity to donate
• Target advertising to specific types of consumers
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Uses and abuses of machine learning

• A machine learning algorithm takes data and identifies
patterns that can be used for action.
• One possibly apocryphal tale is of a large retailer in the
United States, which employed machine learning to
identify expectant mothers for targeted coupon mailings.
• Retailers, do in fact, routinely analyze their customers'
transaction data.
• Websites also routinely do this to serve advertisements
based on your web browsing history.
• Given the data from many individuals, a machine
learning algorithm learns typical patterns of behavior
that can then be used to make recommendations.

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Ethical considerations
• Due to the relative youth of machine learning as a discipline and the
speed at which it is progressing, the associated legal issues and
social norms are often quite uncertain and constantly in flux.
• Customers may feel uncomfortable or become spooked if aspects of
their lives they consider private are made public.

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How do machines learn?

“a machine is said to learn if it is able to take experience and utilize it such that its
performance improves up on similar experiences in the future” (Tom M. Mitchell,
a computer scientist)
Regardless of whether the learner is a human or a machine, the basic learning
process is similar.
Data input: It utilizes observation, memory storage, and recall to provide a factual
basis for further reasoning.
Abstraction: It involves the translation of data into broader representations
Generalization: It uses abstracted data to form a basis for action.

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Abstraction and knowledge representation

• The work of assigning a meaning to data occurs during the
abstraction process.
• During the process of knowledge representation, the computer
summarizes raw inputs in a model, an explicit description of the
structured patterns among data. There are many different types of
models. Examples include:
• Equations
• Diagrams such as trees and graphs
• Logical if/else rules
• Groupings of data known as clusters

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Abstraction and knowledge representation

• The process of fitting a particular model to a dataset is known as
training.
• When the model has been trained, the data has been transformed
into an abstract form that summarizes the original information.
• By fitting equations to observational data, Sir Isaac Newton deduced
the concept of gravity.

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Generalization
• The term generalization describes the process of turning abstracted
knowledge into a form that can be utilized for action.
• The heuristics employed by machine learning algorithms also
sometimes result in erroneous conclusions. If the conclusions are
systematically imprecise, the algorithm is said to have a bias.

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Assessing the success of learning

• Every learner has its weaknesses and is biased in a particular way;
there is no single model to rule them all. Therefore, the final step in
the generalization process is to determine the model's success in
spite of its biases.
• After a model has been trained on an initial dataset, the model is
tested on a new dataset, and judged on how well its characterization
of the training data generalizes to the new data.

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Assessing the success of learning

• In part, the failure for models to perfectly generalize is due to the
problem of noise, or unexplained variations in data. Noisy data is
caused by seemingly random events, such as:
• Measurement error due to imprecise sensors that sometimes add or
subtract a bit from the reading
• Issues with reporting data, such as respondents reporting random answers
to survey questions in order to finish more quickly
• Errors caused when data is recorded incorrectly, including missing, null,
truncated, incorrectly coded, or corrupted values

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Assessing the success of learning

• Trying to model the noise in data is the basis of a problem called
overfitting.
• Because noise is unexplainable by definition, attempting to explain
the noise will result in erroneous conclusions that do not generalize
well to new cases. Attempting to generate theories to explain the
noise also results in more complex models that are more likely to
ignore the true pattern the learner is trying to identify.
• A model that seems to perform well during training but does poorly
during testing is said to be overfitted to the training dataset as it
does not generalize well.
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Steps to apply machine learning to your data

1. Collecting data: Whether the data is written on paper, recorded in
text files and spreadsheets, or stored in an SQL database, you will
need to gather it in an electronic format suitable for analysis. This
data will serve as the learning material an algorithm uses to
generate actionable knowledge.
2. Exploring and preparing the data: The quality of any machine
learning project is based largely on the quality of data it uses. This
step in the machine learning process tends to require a great deal
of human intervention.

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Steps to apply machine learning to your data

3. Training a model on the data: By the time the data has been prepared
for analysis, you are likely to have a sense of what you are hoping to
learn from the data. The specific machine learning task will inform the
selection of an appropriate algorithm, and the algorithm will represent
the data in the form of a model.
4. Evaluating model performance: Because each machine learning model
results in a biased solution to the learning problem, it is important to
evaluate how well the algorithm learned from its experience.
Depending on the type of model used, you might be able to evaluate
the accuracy of the model using a test dataset, or you may need to
develop measures of performance specific to the intended application.
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Steps to apply machine learning to your data

5. Improving model performance: If better performance is needed, it
becomes necessary to utilize more advanced strategies to augment the
performance of the model. Sometimes, it may be necessary to switch to
a different type of model altogether. You may need to supplement your
data with additional data, or perform additional preparatory work as in
step two of this process.

After these steps have been completed, if the model appears to be performing satisfactorily,
it can be deployed for its intended task. As the case may be, you might utilize your model to
provide score data for predictions (possibly in real time), for projections of financial data, to
generate useful insight for marketing or research, or to automate tasks such as mail delivery
or flying aircraft. The successes and failures of the deployed model might even provide
additional data to train the next generation of your model.

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Choosing a machine learning algorithm

• Since the choice of a machine learning algorithm is largely dependent upon the
type of data you are analyzing and the proposed task at hand, it is often helpful
to be thinking about this process while you are gathering, exploring, and
cleaning your data.
• An example is literally a single exemplary instance of the underlying concept to be
learned; it is one set of data describing the atomic unit of interest for the analysis.
To detect cancerous tumors, the examples might comprise biopsies from a number
of patients.
Thinking • The phrase unit of observation is used to describe the units that the examples are
about the measured in. Commonly, the unit of observation is in the form of transactions,
persons, time points, geographic regions, or measurements.
input data • A feature is a characteristic or attribute of an example, which might be useful for
learning the desired concept. For the cancer dataset, the attributes might be
genomic data from the biopsied cells, or measured characteristics of the patient
such as weight, height, or blood pressure.

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Choosing a machine learning algorithm

• The following spreadsheet shows a dataset in matrix format, which means that
each example has the same number of features. In matrix data, each row in the
spreadsheet is an example and each column is a feature.

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Choosing a machine learning algorithm

• Features come in various forms as well.
• If a feature represents a characteristic measured in numbers, it is unsurprisingly called
numeric.
• Alternatively, if it measures an attribute that is represented by a set of categories, the
feature is called categorical or nominal.
• A special case of categorical variables is called ordinal, which designates a nominal
variable with categories falling in an ordered list.
• Some examples of ordinal variables include clothing sizes such as small, medium, and
large, or a measurement of customer satisfaction on a scale from 1 to 5.
• It is important to consider what the features represent because the type and number of
features in your dataset will assist with determining an appropriate machine learning
algorithm for your task.

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Thinking about types of machine learning

algorithms
• Machine learning algorithms can be divided into two main
groups:
1) supervised learners that are used to construct predictive models, and
2) unsupervised learners that are used to build descriptive models.
• A predictive model is used for tasks that involve, as the name
implies, the prediction of one value using other values in the
dataset.
• The learning algorithm attempts to discover and model the
relationship among the target feature (the feature being
predicted) and the other features.
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Thinking about types of machine learning

algorithms
• Because predictive models are given clear instruction on what they
need to learn and how they are intended to learn it, the process of
training a predictive model is known as supervised learning.
• The often used supervised machine learning task of predicting which
category an example belongs to is known as classification. It is easy to
think of potential uses for a classifier. For instance, you could predict
whether:
• A football team will win or lose
• A person will live past the age of 100
• An applicant will default on a loan
• An earthquake will strike next year

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Thinking about types of machine learning

algorithms
• The target feature to be predicted is a categorical feature known
as the class and is divided into categories called levels.
• A descriptive model is used for tasks that would benefit from the
insight gained from summarizing data in new and interesting
ways.
• In fact, because there is no target to learn, the process of training
a descriptive model is called unsupervised learning.

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Thinking about types of machine learning

algorithms
• For example, the descriptive modeling task called pattern
discovery is used to identify frequent associations within data.
Pattern discovery is often used for market basket analysis on
transactional purchase data.

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Thinking about types of machine learning

algorithms
• The descriptive modeling task of dividing a dataset into homogeneous
groups is called clustering.
• This is sometimes used for segmentation analysis that identifies groups of
individuals with similar purchasing, donating, or demographic information
so that advertising campaigns can be tailored to particular audiences.

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Matching your data to an appropriate

algorithm

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Diskusikan dengan 1 teman anda

• Sebutkan minimal tiga contoh layanan platform machine learning
yang pernah anda gunakan, dan jelaskan secara umum masing-
masing cara kerjanya.

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