Trip Generation: Source: NHI Course On Travel Demand Forecasting (152054A) Session 10

Source: NHI course on Traffic (Trip) Assignment
Travel Demand Forecasting

(152054A) Session 10
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Transit Estimation & Mode Split
Time-of-Day & Directional Factoring
Transit Person Trip Table Vehicle Trip Table

(O&D) (O&D)
Trip Assignment
Loaded Transit Loaded

Network Highway
Network
Review
Trip Assignment
Objectives:
• Explain the concept of an all-or-nothing assignment
• Explain the concept of an equilibrium assignment
• Identify the BPR formula
• Identify the source of the input data to the BPR formula
• Explain the application of the BPR formula in an equilibrium
assignment
• Explain the meaning of the volumes from an all-or-nothing
assignment
• Explain the meaning of the volumes from an equilibrium
assignment
Terminology
• Highway/trip • Path finding
assignment • Impedance
• Transit trip assignment • Path loading
• All-or-nothing • Level of service
assignment • Capacity restraint
• Equilibrium
assignment
• Freeflow speed
Inputs and Outputs
Inputs
• O&D trip table
• Coded network
Outputs
• Link flows as per coded network
• Link travel times/speeds
• VMT
• Vehicle hours of travel
Trip Assignment Methods
•All-or-nothing assignment
•Equilibrium assignment (approximation!)
•Transit assignment
All-or-Nothing Assignment
Step 1: Step 2: Step 3:

Find Shortest Assign all trips to Continue until
route between links trips between all
compromising TAZ pairs have
the TAZs
shortest route been assigned
Advantages
•Simple
•Inexpensive
•Results easy to understand
Disadvantages
•Assumes all traffic will travel on shortest path
•Creates unrealistic flow patterns
(7) 67
(8) 24
(9) 9
These results
From this specification
Logit model
Can set Ui = -tti
Can set Ui = 1/tti, but if you do, will need a
calibration coefficient
Capacity Restraint
• Volume-delay relationship
• Average travel speed decreases
with increased flow (volume)
• Average travel time increases as
the volume-to-capacity ratio on a
link increases
• The Bureau of Public Roads
(BPR) formula, used as default in
most model packages
shows this relationship:
Travel time depends on

the loading, but the
loading depends on the
travel time – it’s an
iterative process
Alpha and beta can be
calibrated for various
link types and assumed
LOS for capacity
Source: Virginia Travel Demand Modeling Policies and Procedures Manual

Equilibrium Assignment
Step 1: Step 2: Step 3:
Find shortest Assign trips to Update link travel
times using capacity
routes shortest routes
restraint function
Step 6: Average Step 5: Step 4: Compute

trips for last two now shortest routes
Assign trips to
assignments using new travel
shortest route
times
Step 7: Update link Step 8 : Step 9: Continue

travel times using until volumes and
Go back to
average trips assigned travel times on links
Step 1.
and capacity restraint are in equilibrium
function.
•Utilizes the concept of capacity restraint (link impedance depends on link flow levels)
•Assign traffic in congested networks so that no individual trip maker can reduce path costs by
switching routes
•Assumes trip makers know conditions on all routes.
10 100
12
16
Note: it is difficult to demonstrate the usefulness of this
process in such a simplified network. Imagine thousands
13 of links and OD pairs, and you could see how running this
12 100
multiple times could produce various loads on the many
links. In this and some other examples in this lecture, the
16
loading pattern would simply repeat itself.
11 50
14 50
16
Average of the first two iteration’s loads, and resulting

travel times
Speed
volume
Why? Because speed

doesn’t change much
until you get close to
capacity … the times
and loads here are
for demonstration
purposes only.
Note: 40% refers to

40% of the traffic
between all OD pairs
that use that link
along their path. It
may well be more or
less than 40% of the
capacity of the link
itself. Re-compute these times with 67 and 33 trips, respectively
Using Damping Factors to Control Oscillations
By incorporating a damping factor you don't let the change in

travel time between each iteration change so quickly. If the
factor is, D = .5, then...
9.5 100
instead of travel time changing from 7 to 12 minutes (change =
5), multiply change by .5, 5*.5 = 2.5, change travel time from 7
to 9.5 minutes.
10.75
instead of travel time changing from 9.5 to 12 minutes (change = 100
2.5), multiply change by .5, 2.5*.5 = 1.25, change travel time
from 9.5 to 10.75 minutes.
10
instead of travel time changing from 10 to 15 minutes (change =
5), multiply change by .5, 5*.5 = 2.5, change travel time from 10 10.75 100
12.5
to 12.5 minutes.
16
10 or 20 iterations or more may be needed in a real network

10.75 300/4=75
12.5
16
Re-compute these times with 75 and 25 trips, respectively 100/4=25
Older pseudo-equilibrium method (equilibrium approximation) This is not a true
equilibrium
method. It is a
methods that
was
implemented in
early models.
TransCAD can
do it, but it is
not
recommended
Transit Assignment
• Links include different services running between
stops or stations.
• Involves movement of passengers, not vehicles
• Complex interchange patterns associated with
passengers
• Impedance functions includes fare structure
• Some paths offer more than one parallel service
with complex associated choices (e.g., express bus
versus local bus service)
Error Checking and Validation
• Examine plotted trees
• Compare counted VMT with modeled VMT
• Compare external station counted volumes with
modeled volumes.
• Compare counted and modeled screen line
volumes
• Compare assigned volumes to ground counts for
links grouped by facility type and by volume
groups
Some discussion on TransCAD
• True EU and SUE assignment methods
• Select Link Analysis
– Zone/node based
– Link based
• Flow maps and v/c maps
• Accounting for and optimizing signal operations
• Combined trip dist/assignment method
– feedback
– Simultaneous modeling
• Question: what would happen if we tested the shortest path from an O
to a D following various types of assignments
– All or nothing? Approximate methods?
– Stochasting or SUE? (for this, need to know all used flow paths between
the O and D … how to get?)

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Source: NHI course on Traffic (Trip) Assignment

Travel Demand Forecasting

Transit Estimation & Mode Split

Time-of-Day & Directional Factoring

Transit Person Trip Table Vehicle Trip Table

Loaded Transit Loaded

Step 1: Step 2: Step 3:

Travel time depends on

Source: Virginia Travel Demand Modeling Policies and Procedures Manual

Step 6: Average Step 5: Step 4: Compute

Step 7: Update link Step 8 : Step 9: Continue

Average of the first two iteration’s loads, and resulting

Why? Because speed

Note: 40% refers to

By incorporating a damping factor you don't let the change in

10 or 20 iterations or more may be needed in a real network

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