Unit 3

Risk, Return, and

Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM)
Presented by: Dr. Van S. Dalluay, Ph.D.
Modern College of Business and Science, Bausher,
Muscat, Sultanate of Oman
5-1
 Defining Return
Income received on an investment
plus any change in market price,
usually expressed as a percent of
the beginning market price of the
investment.
Dt + (Pt - Pt-1 )
R=
Pt-1
5-2
 Return Example
The stock price for Stock A was $10 per
share 1 year ago. The stock is currently
trading at $9.50 per share and shareholders
just received a $1 dividend. What return
was earned over the past year?

5-3
 Return Example
The stock price for Stock A was $10 per
share 1 year ago. The stock is currently
trading at $9.50 per share and shareholders
just received a $1 dividend. What return
was earned over the past year?

$1.00 + ($9.50 - $10.00 )

R= = 5%
$10.00
5-4
 Defining Risk
The variability of returns from
those that are expected.
What rate of return do you expect on your
investment (savings) this year?
What rate will you actually earn?
Does it matter if it is a bank CD or a share
of stock?
5-5
 Determining Expected
Return (Discrete Dist.)
n
R = S ( Ri )( Pi )
i=1

R is the expected return for the asset,

Ri is the return for the ith possibility,
Pi is the probability of that return
occurring,
n is the total number of possibilities.
5-6
 How to Determine the Expected
Return and Standard Deviation

Stock BW
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi)
The
-.15 .10 -.015 expected
-.03 .20 -.006 return, R,
.09 .40 .036 for Stock
.21 .20 .042 BW is .09
or 9%
.33 .10 .033
Sum 1.00 .090
5-7
 Determining Standard
Deviation (Risk Measure)
n
s= S ( Ri - R )2( Pi )
i=1

Standard Deviation, s, is a statistical

measure of the variability of a distribution
around its mean.
It is the square root of variance.
Note, this is for a discrete distribution.
5-8
 How to Determine the Expected
Return and Standard Deviation

Stock BW
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi) (Ri - R )2(Pi)
-.15 .10 -.015 .00576
-.03 .20 -.006 .00288
.09 .40 .036 .00000
.21 .20 .042 .00288
.33 .10 .033 .00576
Sum 1.00 .090 .01728
5-9
 Determining Standard
Deviation (Risk Measure)
n
s= S
i=1
( Ri - R ) 2( P )
i

s= .01728

s= .1315 or 13.15%

5-10
 Coefficient of Variation
The ratio of the standard deviation of
a distribution to the mean of that
distribution.
It is a measure of RELATIVE risk.
CV = s / R
CV of BW = .1315 / .09 = 1.46
5-11
 Risk Attitudes
Certainty Equivalent (CE) is the
amount of cash someone would
require with certainty at a point in
time to make the individual
indifferent between that certain
amount and an amount expected to
be received with risk at the same
point in time.
5-12
 Risk Attitudes
Certainty equivalent > Expected value
Risk Preference
Certainty equivalent = Expected value
Risk Indifference
Certainty equivalent < Expected value
Risk Aversion
Most individuals are Risk Averse.
5-13
 Risk Attitude Example
You have the choice between (1) a guaranteed
dollar reward or (2) a coin-flip gamble of
$100,000 (50% chance) or $0 (50% chance).
The expected value of the gamble is $50,000.
 Mary requires a guaranteed $25,000, or more, to
call off the gamble.
 Raleigh is just as happy to take $50,000 or take
the risky gamble.
 Shannon requires at least $52,000 to call off the
gamble.
5-14
 Risk Attitude Example
What are the Risk Attitude tendencies of each?

Mary shows “risk aversion” because her

“certainty equivalent” < the expected value of
the gamble.
Raleigh exhibits “risk indifference” because her
“certainty equivalent” equals the expected value
of the gamble.
Shannon reveals a “risk preference” because her
“certainty equivalent” > the expected value of
the gamble.
5-15
 Determining Portfolio
Expected Return
m
RP = S ( Wj )( Rj )
j=1
RP is the expected return for the portfolio,
Wj is the weight (investment proportion)
for the jth asset in the portfolio,
Rj is the expected return of the jth asset,
m is the total number of assets in the
5-16
portfolio.
 Determining Portfolio
Standard Deviation
m m
sP = S S
j=1 k=1
Wj Wk s jk
Wj is the weight (investment proportion)
for the jth asset in the portfolio,
Wk is the weight (investment proportion)
for the kth asset in the portfolio,
sjk is the covariance between returns for
the jth and kth assets in the portfolio.
5-17
 Portfolio Risk and
Expected Return Example
You are creating a portfolio of Stock D and Stock
BW (from earlier). You are investing $2,000 in
Stock BW and $3,000 in Stock D. The expected
return and standard deviation of Stock BW is 9%
and 13.15% respectively. The expected return and
standard deviation of Stock D is 8% and 10.65%
respectively. The correlation coefficient between
BW and D is 0.75.
What is the expected return and standard
deviation of the portfolio?
5-18
 Determining Portfolio
Expected Return
WBW = $2,000 / $5,000 = .4
WD = $3,000 / $5,000 = .6

RP = (WBW)(RBW) + (WD)(RD)
RP = (.4)(9%) + (.6)(8%)
RP = (3.6%) + (4.8%) = 8.4%
5-19
 Total Risk = Systematic
Risk + Unsystematic Risk
Total Risk = Systematic Risk +
Unsystematic Risk
Systematic Risk is the variability of return
on stocks or portfolios associated with
changes in return on the market as a whole.
Unsystematic Risk is the variability of return
on stocks or portfolios not explained by
general market movements. It is avoidable
through diversification.
5-20
 Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM)
CAPM is a model that describes the
relationship between risk and
expected (required) return; in this
model, a security’s expected
(required) return is the risk-free rate
plus a premium based on the
systematic risk of the security.
5-21
 CAPM Assumptions
1. Capital markets are efficient.
2. Homogeneous investor expectations
over a given period.
3. Risk-free asset return is certain
(use short- to intermediate-term
Treasuries as a proxy).
4. Market portfolio contains only
systematic risk (use S&P 500 Index
or similar as a proxy).
5-22
 Calculating “Beta”
on Your Calculator
Time Pd. Market My Stock
The Market
1 9.6% 12%
and My
2 -15.4% -5% Stock
3 26.7% 19% returns are
4 -.2% 3% “excess
5 20.9% 13% returns” and
6 28.3% 14% have the
7 -5.9% -9% riskless rate
8 3.3% -1% already
9 12.2%
subtracted.
12%
10 10.5% 10%
5-23
 Calculating “Beta”
on Your Calculator
 Assume that the previous continuous
distribution problem represents the “excess
returns” of the market portfolio (it may still be
in your calculator data worksheet -- 2nd Data ).
 Enter the excess market returns as “X”
observations of: 9.6%, -15.4%, 26.7%, -0.2%,
20.9%, 28.3%, -5.9%, 3.3%, 12.2%, and 10.5%.
 Enter the excess stock returns as “Y” observations
of: 12%, -5%, 19%, 3%, 13%, 14%, -9%, -1%,
12%, and 10%.
5-24
 Calculating “Beta”
on Your Calculator
 Let us examine again the statistical
results (Press 2nd and then Stat )
 The market expected return and standard
deviation is 9% and 13.32%. Your stock
expected return and standard deviation is
6.8% and 8.76%.
 The regression equation is Y=a+bX. Thus, our
characteristic line is Y = 1.4448 + 0.595 X and
indicates that our stock has a beta of 0.595.

5-25
 What is Beta?

An index of systematic risk.

It measures the sensitivity of a
stock’s returns to changes in
returns on the market portfolio.
The beta for a portfolio is simply a
weighted average of the individual
stock betas in the portfolio.
5-26
 Determination of the
Required Rate of Return
Lisa Miller at Basket Wonders is
attempting to determine the rate of return
required by their stock investors. Lisa is
using a 6% Rf and a long-term market
expected rate of return of 10%. A stock
analyst following the firm has calculated
that the firm beta is 1.2. What is the
required rate of return on the stock of
5-27
Basket Wonders?
 BWs Required
Rate of Return

RBW = Rf + bj(RM - Rf)

RBW = 6% + 1.2(10% - 6%)
RBW = 10.8%
The required rate of return exceeds
the market rate of return as BW’s
5-28
beta exceeds the market beta (1.0).
 Determination of the
Intrinsic Value of BW
Lisa Miller at BW is also attempting to
determine the intrinsic value of the stock.
She is using the constant growth model.
Lisa estimates that the dividend next period
will be $0.50 and that BW will grow at a
constant rate of 5.8%. The stock is currently
selling for $15.

What is the intrinsic value of the stock?

Is the stock over or underpriced?
5-29
 Determination of the
Intrinsic Value of BW

Intrinsic $0.50
=
Value 10.8% - 5.8%

= $10

The stock is OVERVALUED as

the market price ($15) exceeds
the intrinsic value ($10).
5-30