UNIT IV

PROBABILITY

1
 Definition of Probability:
If there are ‘n’ exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally
likely outcomes of a random experiment, and ‘m’ of them are
favourable to an event ‘A’, then the probability of happening
of ‘A’ is:

No. of favourable event

P(A) = Total no. of likely event

m
P(A) = m +n
where m is no. of favourable events
n is no. of unfavourable events 2
 Terminology Used in Definition:
Random Experiment:
An occurrence which can be repeated a number of times
essentially under the same conditions & whose result can’t
be predicted beforehand, is known as a random experiment
or simply an experiment.
Sample Space & Sample Point:
The set of all possible outcomes of a experiment is called a
sample space (S)
The elements of sample space are called sample points.
A sample space is said to be finite or infinite.
For Eg: If we throw a dice, it can result in any of the six
numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Therefore sample space of this experiment is
S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } and
n(S) = 6 3
 Event:
Any subset of sample space is called an event.
If S is a sample space, then it is obvious that the null set Ø
and the sample space S itself are events.
For eg: If we throw a dice, it can result in any of the six
numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6. Getting a even number
E = { 2,4,6} and n (E) = 3
Exhaustive Outcomes:
By exhaustive we mean that all the possible outcomes
have been taken into consideration and one of them must
happen as a result of an experiment.
For Eg(1): If we throw a dice, there are six exhaustive
outcomes , namely numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming
uppermost.
Eg(2): In tossing a coin there are two exhaustive
4
outcomes namely coming up of head & tail.
 Mutually Exclusive Outcomes:
Outcomes are said to be mutually exclusive if the happening
of an outcome excludes the possibility of the happening of
other outcomes.
For e.g.: In tossing a coin, if head coming up then coming up of tail
is excluded in that particular chance.
Equally Likely Outcomes:
Outcomes are said to be equally likely when the occurrence
of none of them is expected in preference to others.
Independent & Dependent Event:
Two events are said to be independent if the probability of
occurrence of either of them is not affected by the occurrence or
non – occurrence of the other.
On the other hand, if the occurrence of one event affects the
probability of occurrence of the other, then the second event is
said to be dependent on the first.
5
Illustrations 1:
An unbiased dice is thrown. What is the probability of
i. getting a six
ii. getting either five or six
Solution:
In a single throw of dice, there are six possible outcomes i.e. 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Thus n(S) = 6
iii. getting a six
Here n(E) = 1
Therefore required probability:
n(E) 1
P(E) = =
n(S) 6
ii. getting either five or six
Here n(E) = 2
Therefore required probability:
n(E) 2 1
P(E) = = =
n(S) 6 3 6
 Illustrations 2:
In a simultaneous throw of two die, find the probability of
getting a total of 6.
Solution:
In a simultaneous throw of two die, we have 6 * 6 i.e. 36
possible outcomes.
Thus n(S) = 36 and
E = { (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)} i.e. n (E) = 5
Therefore required probability:

n(E) 5
P(E) = =
n(S) 36 7
 Playing Cards
Colours of cards

Spade Heart

Club Diamond 8
Cards of Spade

9
Cards of Heart

10
Cards of Club

11
Cards of Diamond

12
Total No. Of Playing Cards In A Pack

13
 Illustration 3:
One card is drawn from a well – shuffled standard pack
of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that it is a :-
a) King
b) King of red colour
c) King of heart
d) Numeric card
e) Numeric card bearing a multiple of 2
f) Red numeric card bearing a multiple of 2
g) Black odd numeric card. 14
Illustration 4:
A ball is drawn from a bag containing 6 red, 4 white and
5 blue balls. Determine the probability that it is:
(a) Red (b) White (c) Blue

Illustration 5:
What is the probability that a vowel selected at random
in any English book is “a”.

Illustration 6:
What is the probability of getting more than two with an
ordinary dice.
15
THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY:
Addition Theorem (OR Theorem)
Multiplication Theorem (AND Theorem)
Addition Theorem:
Case 1: When events are mutually exclusive:
It state that if two events A & B are mutually exclusive then the
probability of occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the
individual probability of A & B. Symbolically
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)

Case 2: When events are NOT mutually exclusive:

It states that if two events A & B are not mutually exclusive, then
probability of the occurrence of either A or B is the sum of the
individual probability of A & B minus the probability of occurrence
of both A and B. Symbolically
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) 16
Conditional Probability:
The probability of occurrence of event A, given that the event
B has already occurred is called conditional probability of
occurrence of A on the condition that B has already occurred.
It is denoted by P(A/B).
If A and B are independent events, then P(A/B) = P(A).
Multiplication Theorem:
The probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events A &
B is the product of probability of A and the conditional
probability of B when A has already occurred or vice – versa.
Symbolically
P(A∩B) = P(A). P(B/A), If P(A) ≠ 0
P(A∩B) = P(B). P(A/B), If P(B) ≠ 0
It is noted that in case of independent events:
P(A∩B) = P(A). P(B) 17
 Illustration 7:
If a card is drawn at random from a pack of cards. What
is the probability that the card drawn is:
a) Either a king or a queen.
b) Either a club or the ace of diamond.
c) Either a spade or a king.
d) Either a queen or red colour.
Illustration 8:
A bag contains 4 white and 2 red balls. Two balls are
drawn randomly with replacement. Find the probability
that :
a) Both balls are white.
b) Both balls will be of same colour
c) One is white and other is red. UPTU 2003 - 04
18
 Illustration 9:
Three students A, B and C are given a problem to solve. Their
chances of solving it are 1/2, 1/3 and 1/4 respectively. Find out the
probability that :
a) Exactly two of them will solve the problem.
b) Exactly one will solve the problem.
c) That the problem will be solved.

Illustration 10:
The odds that a book on business statistics will be favourably
reviewed by three independent critics are 2:3, 4:3 & 3:2
respectively. What is the probability of three reviews:
a) All will be favourable.
b) Majority of review will be favourable.
c) Exactly one review will be favourable.
d) Exactly two review will be favourable.
e) Atleast one review will be favourable.
19
 Illustration
The probability that a boy will solve the problem is 3/4 & that

a girl will solve the problem is 4/5. Find the probability that

a) Both will solve the problem.

b) None of them will solve the problem.

c) Only boy will solve the problem.

d) Atleast one of them will solve the problem

20
 Illustration 11
The odds against A solving a problem are 10 to 7 & odds in favour
of B solving a problem are 15 to 12. What is the probability that, if
both of them try, the problem will be solved?

Illustration 12
A university has to select a examiner from a list of 50 persons. 20
of them women and 30 men, 10 of them knowing science and 40
not, 15 of them being university professors and 35 not. What is
the probability of the university selecting a science knowing
woman university professor?
UPTU 2001-02
21
 Illustration 13
Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is
the probability that the drawn cards are both kings.
Illustration 14
Four persons in a company of 20 are graduates. If 4 persons are
picked out of 20 at random, find the probability that
a) All are graduates?
b) Atleast one is graduate? UPTU 2007 – 08
Illustration 15 UPTU 2015 – 16
A committee of four people is to be appointed from 3 officers of
the production department, 4 officers of purchase department, 2
officers of the sales department and 1 chartered accountant. Find
the probability of forming the committee in the following manner:
a) There must be one from each category.
b) It should have atleast one from the purchase department.
c) The CA must be in the committee. UPTU 2012 –2213
 Illustration 16
A card is drawn from a pack of playing cards & then another card is
drawn without the first being replaced. What is the probability of
drawing:
a) Two kings.
b) 1st is king & 2nd is queen.
c) Two red cards.
d) 1st is red & 2nd is black.
Illustration 17
A bag contains 3 black, 4 white and 5 red balls. Two balls are
drawn in succession at random without replacement. Find the
probability that : -
a) Both balls are black.
b) Both balls are white.
c) 1st is red & 2nd is white
d) 1st is white & 2nd is black
e) Both balls are of same colour. 23
 Illustration
A bag contains 3 black, 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn
at random. Find the probability that :
a) it is either a black ball or non white ball
b) it is either a white ball or non red ball
c) it is either a red ball or non – black ball

Illustration
A dice is thrown. What is the probability of getting : -
a) a multiple of 2 or 3
b) A multiple of 2 or 4

24
 Illustration
X can solve 80 percent of the problem given in a book and Y can
solve 60 percent. What is the probability that:-
a) both will solve problem
b) none will be able to solve a problem
c) problem will be solved
d) atleast one them will not be able to solve the problem
e) only one of them will solve the problem.

Illustration
X can solve 3 problems out of 5, Y can solve the 2 out of 5 and Z
can solve 3 out of 4. What is the probability that : -
a) the problem will be solved
b) only two of them will be solve a problem
c) atleast two of them will solve a problem
25
Inverse Probability or Baye’s Theorem
• Mathematically, if an event can be influenced by
any one reason out of ‘n’ mutually exclusive
reasons, the probabilities of influence of these
reasons are P1, P2, P3,………………, Pn pn and the
probability of happening the event by each of these
reasons are p1, p2,p3,……., pn, then the probability of
happening the event due to m-th reason can be
calculated as follows:
Pmpm
P = P p +P p +P p +…+P p
1 1 2 2 3 3 n n
26
 Inverse Probability or Baye’s Theorem
• In simple probability, the probability is calculated before the
occurrence of an event, while in inverse probability, it is
calculated for the cause of an event after its occurrence.
• Let us take an example : Suppose a bag contains 4 red and 2
black balls. Another bag contains 3 red and 3 black balls. A ball
is drawn randomly. If it is asked that what is the probability of
its being black, it will be a case of simple probability.
• On the contrary if it is said that ball drawn is black and what is
the probability that it was drawn from the first bag, it will be a
problem of inverse probability.
• The Concept of inverse probability was propounded by Thomas
Bayes. So it is also called Baye’s Theorem.
• Moreover inverse probability is also known as “a – Posteriori
Probability”
27
 Illustration 18
• A bag contains 10 white and 5 black balls. Another bag
contains 6 white and 4 black balls. A black ball was drawn
from one of the two bags. What is the probability that it
was drawn:
a) From the first bag
b) From the second bag
Solution:
Let P1 and P2 stands for the events selecting bag first and bag
second respectively and let p1 and p2 stands for getting
black balls from 1st and 2nd bag respectively. Thus,
Probability of getting black ball from 1st bag (P1p1 )= 1/2X5/15
=1/6
Probability of getting black ball from 2nd bag (P2p2 )= 1/2X4/10
=1/5 28
a) Probability that black ball was drawn from the 1st
bag:
P1p1
P = P p +P p
1 1 2 2

1/6
P = 1/6+ 1/5 = 5/11
b) Probability that black ball was drawn from the 2nd
bag:
P2p2
P = Pp+P p
1 1 2 2

1/5
P = 1/6+ 1/5 = 6/11
29
 Illustration 19
In a factory manufacturing transistors, machines x, y and z
manufacture 30, 30 and 40 percent of the total production of
transistors. Of their output 4, 5 and 10 percent of the transistors
are defective. If one transistor is selected at random, and if it is
found to be defective, what is the probability that it is
manufactured by machine z? UPTU 2002 – 03

Illustration 20
In a certain college the composition of male and female students
was found to be 90% and 10% respectively. Assume that 75 % of
the female students and 50% of the male students wear glasses.
a) What is the probability that a student selected at random
wears glasses?
b) What is the probability that a student who wears glasses
i. Is a male?
ii. Is a female? 30
Theoritical Probability
Distribution

31
 Theoritical Probability Distribution
We may define it as a distribution of frequencies which are not
based on actual experiment or observation but is constructed
through expected frequencies obtained by mathematical
computation based on certain hypothesis.

Types of TPD

Discrete P.D. Continuous P.D.

Binomial P. Distribution Normal P. Distribution
Poisson P. Distribution
32
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Binomial Distribution is associated with the name of French
mathematician James Bernoulli and it is also known as
Bernoulli Distribution.
Binomial Distribution is a discrete frequency distribution, which is
based on the dichotomous alternatives i.e. on the basis of
probability of success or failure.
This distribution, in the form of probability density function, can be
expressed as follows:
n r n-r
Where;
P(r) = Cr p q
p is probability of success.
q is the probability of failure.
n is the number of trials.
r is number of success in n trails. 33
Conditions / Assumptions:
Finite numbers of trials:
The number of trial should be finite & fixed i.e. an experiment is repeated
under identical conditions for a fixed numbers of trials.
Mutually exclusive outcomes:
In each trial, there must be only two possible outcomes of the event
which are mutually exclusive.
Same probability in each trial:
The probability of the happening of the event in each trial remains
constant.
Trials are independent:
All trials must be independent of each other i.e. outcome of one trial has
no effect on the outcomes of other event.
Discrete Variables:
The variable should be discrete i.e. failure or success should be in the 34
whole number.
Characteristics / Properties:
S.No. Characteristics Description
1. Type of Distribution Discrete Probability Distribution

2. Parameters Parameters are p ( i.e. probability of success) and n (no. of

trials)
Restriction on 0 < p < 1;
3. parameter n is finite

Mean = np
4. SD = npq
Variance = npq

5. Probability Function P(r) = nCr pr qn-r

Expected Frequency
6. N. P(r)
Function
Shape of frequency If p = q = ½ ; shape of BD is symmetrical.
7. distribution If p ≠ q; shape of BD will be asymmetrical.
BD is used in the events having dichotomous alternatives
8. Uses of BD only, viz, tossing of coins etc
35
 Illustrations
1. The mean and variance of the Binomial
Distribution are 2.5 and 1.875 respectively. Obtain
the binomial probability distribution.
2. If the mean and variance of a BD are 4 & 2
respectively. Find the probability of:
(i) Exactly two success
(ii) Less than two success
(iii) More than 6 success
(iv) Atleast two success 36
3. 10 coins are tossed 100 times. Find out the expected
frequencies for the following results.
a) 7 heads and 3 tails
b) Atleast 7 heads
c) Exactly 6 heads.
4. 8 coins are tossed at a time, 256 times. The actual results
of getting the number of heads are as follows:
No. of heads 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total
Frequencies 2 6 30 52 67 56 32 10 1 256
Find out expected frequencies. Also calculate the mean
and standard deviation. (UPTU 2010-2011)
5. In a factory it is found that on an average 40% of the
screws produced are defective. Find the mean and
standard deviation for the theoretical distribution of
defective screws in a total of 10. 37
 Poisson’s Distribution
Poisson Distribution was originated by French
mathematician Denis Poisson in the year 1937.
It is a discrete probability distribution and is the limiting
form of Binomial Distribution where ‘p’ tends to zero
and ‘n’ tends to infinity such that ‘np’ is finite constant
say ‘m’.
It is given by: -m x
e
P(x) = x!m
where;
m is mean.
x is number of success of an event.
38
Conditions / Assumptions:
Number of trial is very large.

Probability of success is very small.

Mutually exclusive outcomes.

Same probability in each trial.

Trials are independent.

Discrete Variables.
39
Characteristics / Properties:
S.No. Characteristics Description
1. Type of Distribution Discrete Probability Distribution
2. Parameters Parameters is m (mean)
Restriction on
3. m is finite
parameter

Mean = m = np
4. SD = √m
Variance = m

5. Probability Function P(x) = e-mmx

x!
Expected Frequency
6. N. P(r)
Function
Shape of frequency
7. PD is always positively skewed
distribution
PD is used to describe the behaviour of rare events such
8. Uses of PD as no. of germs in one drop of pure water.
40
 Illustrations
1. Is there any inconsistency in the statement that in a
Poisson Distribution mean is 16 and S.D. is 3.

2. If X follows a Poisson Distribution such that :

P(X = 2) = 9 P(X = 4) + 90 P(X = 6)

3. Suppose that a manufactured product has 2 defects per

unit of product inspected. Use Poisson Distribution to
calculate the probability of finding a product without any
defect, 3 defects and 4 defects. (Given : e-2 = 0.135)

41
4. In a radio manufacturing factory average number of
defective is 1 in 10 radios. Find the probability of getting
exactly 2 defective radios in a random sample of 10 radios,
using (i) the Binomial Distribution and (ii) the Poisson
Distribution. (Given: e-1 = 0.3679)

5. In a factory manufacturing pens, of which 0.5 percent are

defective pens, each carton is packed of 100 pens. What is
the percentage of such cartons in which:
(a) not a single pen is defective,
(b) atleast one pen is defective and
(c) two or more pens are defective?
(Given : e-0.5 = 0.6065)
42
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution in
which the relative frequencies of a continuous variable are
distributed according to normal probability law.
In simple words, it is a symmetrical distribution in which the
frequencies are distributed evenly about the mean of
distribution.
A normal distribution in a variate X with mean μ and variance
σ2 is a statistic distribution with probability density function

1 -1/2 (X – μ/σ)2
P(x) = σ√2π
e
where;
μ is mean σ is standard deviation
π = 3.14 e = 2.718 43
Conditions / Assumptions:

Mutually exclusive outcomes:

Same probability in each trial:

Trials are independent:

Continuous Variables: A random variable that can take

any values within a given range.

44
Characteristics / Properties:
S.No. Characteristics Description
1. Type of Distribution Continuous Probability Distribution
2. Parameters Parameters are μ and σ
3. Restriction on
parameter -∞ < X <∞
4. Mean = μ
SD = σ
Variance = σ2

5. Probability Function
1
P(x) = σ√2π e
-1/2 (X – μ/σ)2

6. Expected Frequency N. P(x)

Function
7. Shape of frequency ND is perfectly symmetrical about mean
distribution
8. Uses of ND ND is used to describe the frequency distribution of a vast
variety of continuous variable.
45
 Characteristics of BD, PD, ND.
S.No. Characteristics BD PD ND

1 Parameters p and n m μ and σ

2 Restriction on 0 < p < 1; m is finite -∞ < X <∞

Parameters n is finite

3 Mean np m μ

4 Variance npq m σ2
Probability
5 -m x 1
Function n
P(r) = Cr p q r n-r
P(x) = e m P(x) = e -1/2 (X – μ/σ)2

6
Expected Frequency N. P(x) N. P(x) x! σ√2π
N. P(x)
Function

7 Type of Discrete Probability Discrete Probability Continuous Probability

Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution

8 Shape of Frequency Symmetrical or Always positively Perfectly symmetrical

Distribution Asymmetrical skewed about mean
Value of n( no. of Very large or infinite
9 Finite Very large or infinite
trials)
Used in the events Used to describe the Used to describe the
10 Uses
having dichotomous behaviour of rare events frequency distribution
alternatives only, viz, such as no. of germs in of a vast variety of
tossing of coins etc one drop of pure water. continuous variable.
46
ILLUSTRATION 1
An aptitude test was conducted on 900 employees of
the Metro Tyres Ltd. In which the mean score was
found to be 50 units and standard deviation was
20. On the basis of this information, you are
required to answer the following questions:
i. What was the number of employees whose mean
score was less than 30?
ii. What was the number of employees whose mean
score exceeded 70?
iii. What was the number of employees whose mean
score were between 30 and 70?
(2008 – 09, PART – III 47, Q5)
Solution:
Given that μ = 50 and σ = 20
(I) No. of employees whose mean score was less than 30
Step 1:
We are required to find P(X < 30).
For this we transform X to Z by
X -μ 30 - 50
STEP 2 :
Z= σ = 20 = - 1
Thus the required probability:
P (Z < -1) = Area to the left of the ordinates Z = -1
= 0.5 – 0.3413
= 0.1587
STEP 3 : Z=-1
Z=0
Therefore the number of employees whose mean score was less than 30 is
900 X 0.1587 = 143 (Approx)

48
Given that μ = 50 and σ = 20
(II) No. of employees whose mean score was exceeds 70
Step 1:
We are required to find P(X > 70).
For this we transform X to Z by
X -μ 70 - 50
STEP 2 :
Z= σ = 20 = 1
Thus the required probability:
P (Z > 1) = Area to the right of the ordinates Z = 1
= 0.5 – 0.3413
= 0.1587
Z=1
STEP 3 : Z=0

Therefore the number of employees whose mean score was exceeds 70 is

900 X 0.1587 = 143 (Approx)
49
Given that μ = 50 and σ = 20
(III) No. of employees whose mean score was between 30 to 70
Step 1:
We are required to find P(30 < X <70).
For this we transform X to Z by
X1 - μ 30 - 50
Z1 = = σ 20 = -1
X -μ 70 - 50
STEP 2 :
Z2 = σ = 20 = 1
2

Thus the required probability:

P (-1 < Z < 1) = Area b/w one positive & one negative value of z
= 0.3413 + 0.3413
= 0.6826

Z = -1 Z=1
STEP 3 : Z=0
Therefore the number of employees whose mean score was b/w 30 & 70 is
900 X 0.6826 = 614 (Approx) 50
Q2)
The average daily sales of 500 branch offices were Rs. 1,
50,000 and the standard deviation is Rs.15,000. Assuming
the distribution to be normal, indicate how many
branches have sales between:
i. Rs.1,20,000 and Rs. 1,45,000 {2007– 08, Q3 (b)}
ii. Rs. 1,40,000 and Rs. 1,65,000
Q3)
2000 students appeared in an examination. Distribution of
marks is assumed to be normal with mean 30 and s.d. =
6.25. How many students are expected to get marks:
iii. Between 20 and 40
iv. Less than 35 and [2005 – 06, Q3 (b)]
v. Above 50. 51
52