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    Link Prediction in Social Networks

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    sourav sharma
    The document discusses link prediction in social networks. It introduces link prediction as predicting future connections in a social network based on its current structure. It describes several common methods for link prediction, including common neighbors, Jaccard coefficient, Adamic-Adar, and preferential attachment. It then provides an example of applying the Adamic-Adar method to predict links for 10 nodes in a sample social network and discusses evaluating link prediction methods on different datasets.

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    Link Prediction in Social Networks

    Uploaded by

    sourav sharma
    135 views28 pages
    The document discusses link prediction in social networks. It introduces link prediction as predicting future connections in a social network based on its current structure. It describes several common methods for link prediction, including common neighbors, Jaccard coefficient, Adamic-Adar, and preferential attachment. It then provides an example of applying the Adamic-Adar method to predict links for 10 nodes in a sample social network and discusses evaluating link prediction methods on different datasets.

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    This is all about the link prediction in social networks by using machine learning algorithms

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    The document discusses link prediction in social networks. It introduces link prediction as predicting future connections in a social network based on its current structure. It describes several common methods for link prediction, including common neighbors, Jaccard coefficient, Adamic-Adar, and preferential attachment. It then provides an example of applying the Adamic-Adar method to predict links for 10 nodes in a sample social network and discusses evaluating link prediction methods on different datasets.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    135 views28 pages

    Link Prediction in Social Networks

    Uploaded by

    sourav sharma
    The document discusses link prediction in social networks. It introduces link prediction as predicting future connections in a social network based on its current structure. It describes several common methods for link prediction, including common neighbors, Jaccard coefficient, Adamic-Adar, and preferential attachment. It then provides an example of applying the Adamic-Adar method to predict links for 10 nodes in a sample social network and discusses evaluating link prediction methods on different datasets.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 28

    Link Prediction In Social Network

    "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."


    —Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

    Submitted By:
    Sourav sharma – 378/CO/15
    INTRODUCTION
     A Social Network is a collection of social actors (peoples,
    organizations, co-workers etc.) and the connections or
    relations between those actors.
     Social networks are best represented by Graphs where
    vertices (nodes) represent the social actors and edges (links)
    represent the relation between those actors.
     The relationships between people keep evolving with time,
    new connections appear and sometime old ones disappear
    and hence the edges in a social network keep changing with
    time.
    Example Of A Social Network
     Real world examples of social
    network include the set of
    friends, families and followers
    with edges defining relations
    between them; or the set of
    authors, or scientists with edges
    defining their relations (co-
    authors, research partners etc.)
    with others in the network.
    Problem Statement

    Given a snapshot of a social network at time t (or network evolution


    between t1 and t2), we seek to accurately predict the edges that will be
    added to the network during the interval from time t (or t2) to a
    given future time t'.
    The Problem

     So, given a social network, can we


    predict how the future network
    would look like? Or what new
    edges are likely to be formed in the
    future?
     This problem is known as the link
    prediction problem in the social
    networks and it is a part of social
    network mining or analysis.
    Will nodes 33 and 28
    become friends in the
    future?

    Does network structure


    What about nodes contain enough
    27 and 4? information to predict
    what new links will form
    in the future?
    Detailed Introduction

     The link prediction problem can also be extended to inferring


    missing (erased or broken) links in the network, for example, in a
    meeting of three persons, the (missing) name of third participant
    can be predicted if the other two persons and their past meetings
    in the network are known.
     Real world examples of link prediction are suggesting friends and
    followers on social networking websites, suggesting relevant
    products to customers in e-commerce, providing suggestions to
    scientists or researchers to work together based on their fields of
    interests.
    Who To Follow ?
    What will Facebook friendships look like tomorrow?
    Applications
    Applications
     Friendship and Dating: It is the most popular use case of link
    prediction. Almost all the friendship and dating websites use it to suggest
    friends/families or dating partners to their users.
     E-commerce: E-commerce websites such as online shopping use the
    link prediction methods to suggest various products to their users.
     Work Organizations: By analyzing the employee data, organizations
    can build systems to suggest their employees best matched project or
    team to work with.
     Public Security: It is very hard to predict the crimes to be committed
    in the future and individuals behind those but by analyzing the criminals
    and terrorists network, the links which have not been seen so far, can be
    predicted which might be helpful in predicting the nature, place and the
    involved individuals.
     Research and collaborations: Research in a field is often a long and
    tedious process which can be made interesting and more successful by
    bringing together the scientists with more common interests and goals.
    Methods for Link Prediction

     Take the input graph during training period.


     Pick a pair of nodes (x, y).
     Assign a connection weight score(x, y).
     Make a list in descending order of score.
     Score is a measure of proximity.
     Any ideas for measures?
    Methods for Link Prediction
     Common Neighbors: This
    x method calculates a score based on
    the number of common neighbors
    (mutual friends, followers,
    interests or other features) of
    y
    nodes x and y. Higher the number
    of common nodes, higher are the
    chances that they will have an edge
    CN  3 (relation or collaboration) in the
    future.
    Methods for Link Prediction
     Jaccard Coefficient: Jaccard
    Coefficient calculates the probability
    x
    that nodes x and y have a common
    feature, for a randomly selected feature
    f out of set of all neighbors around x
    and y.
     This method might look similar to the
    y Common Neighbors method but its
    predictions are not exactly same as of
    the latter.
     JC(x, y) = (Nx ∩ Ny) / (Nx ∪ Ny)
    Methods for Link Prediction
     Adamic – Adar (Frequency
    weighted common
    neighbors): Adamic and Adar
    x
    proposed this formula which weighs
    the common neighbors with smaller
    degree more heavily. This means if x
    and y share one or more common
    y neighbors which are not much popular
    in the network, the chances of x having
    an edge with y in future are higher.
     AA(x, y) = ∑(z ∈ (Nx ∩ Ny)) 1/ log Nz
    Methods for Link Prediction
     Preferential
    x
    Attachment:This method
    states that the probability that
    a new future edge involves
    node x is directly proportional
    to neighbors of x. In real
    y world, it matches the idea –
    rich become richer. In other
    words, more the number of
    current friends, higher are the
    PA  d x d y chances of making new friends
    in future.
    Methods for Link Prediction

    x  Katz score
     Measures number of paths between
    two nodes, attenuated by their length
     Hitting time
     Expected time for a random walk
    y
    from x to reach y
    Our Work In Link Prediction

     Given the below snapshot a social


    network, we used a method to
    calculate the prediction scores for
    each of the 10 nodes in the picture.
     We ranked higher to the new
    connection (currently not existing)
    between nodes who share less
    popular nodes in the network.
     Using the below formula:
    AA(x,y)=∑(z∈(Nx∩Ny)) 1 / logNz
    Adam Blake Clayton

    Dexter, 1.4426950408889634 Irvin, 1.8204784532536746 Irvin, 0.9102392266268373*

    Irvin, 0.9102392266268373 Adam, 0.9102392266268373 Blake, 0.9102392266268373*

    Blake, 0.9102392266268373 Clayton, 0.9102392266268373 *(same score for both)

    Dexter Edward Ford

    Irvin, 2.8853900817779268 Geoffrey, 2.164042561333445 Hilton, 1.631586747071319

    Adam, 1.4426950408889634 Jacob, 1.4426950408889634 Jacob, 0.9102392266268373

    Hilton, 0.7213475204444817 Edward, 0.7213475204444817

    Ford, 0.7213475204444817 Geoffrey, 0.7213475204444817

    Geoffrey Hilton Irvin

    Edward, 2.164042561333445 Ford, 1.631586747071319 Dexter, 2.8853900817779268

    Hilton, 0.7213475204444817 Jacob, 0.9102392266268373 Blake, 1.8204784532536746

    Ford, 0.7213475204444817 Edward, 0.7213475204444817 Adam, 0.9102392266268373

    Geoffrey, 0.7213475204444817 Clayton, 0.9102392266268373


    Results

     In the above table,we found out that higher the score value, the chances
    are higher that the nodes would connect in future. For example, chances
    of Blake connecting with Irvin are more than that with Adam.
    Results
     The results are presented as:

    1. Factor improvement of proposed predictors over


     Random predictor
     Graph distance predictor
     Common neighbors predictor

    2. Relative performance vs. the above predictors


    3. Common Predictions
    Results
    Factor Improvement By Our Work
    Relative Performance vs Random Predictions
    Results on DataSets
    Conclusion
     We discussed that social networks are made of social actors and
    connections or relations between them and these networks are
    best represented by Graphs where nodes are social actors and
    edges are the connections between nodes. Social networks are
    often very large and grow at a fast rate.
     These social network graphs consist of so much data that it is a
    challenging task to process and do the analysis. In the link
    prediction methods, we take a small snapshot of these large
    networks to analyze and predict future edges between the nodes.
     We have also seen various methods to solve the link prediction
    problems but none of them can be said to be the best as they all
    introduce incorrect predictions too. But they can be further
    improved by incorporating some additional methods such as
    refining the dataset or introducing psychological studies
    Conclusion
    Future Scope
     Although many efforts have been put in developing link prediction
    algorithms in the past, but still there is much room for the
    improvement.
     The predictions can be made more accurate by refining the edges,
    for example – assigning large weight to recent edges and small to
    old ones and by introducing psychology to better handle the
    human characteristics present in the network.
     Social network are very large and processing them takes too much
    time which further increase as the network grows, hence faster
    algorithms can be developed. In addition, supervised algorithms
    based on classifications and regressions can be developed which
    might result in better predictions.
    References
     Liben-NoWell , David and Kleinberg, Jon, 2004, The Link Prediction Problem
    for Social Networks
     Lada A. Adamic and Eytan Adar. Friends and neighbors on
    the web. Social Networks, 25(3):211{230, July 2003.
     A. L. Barabasi, H. Jeong, Z. N_x0013_ eda, E. Rav asz,
    A. Schubert, and T. Vicsek. Evolution of the social network
    of scientist collaboration. Physica A, 311(3{4):590{614,
    2002.
     Sergey Brin and Lawrence Page. The anatomy of a large-
    scale hyper textual Web search engine Computer
    Networks and ISDN Systems, 30(1{7):107{117, 1998.

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