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Count Data Analysis Using Poisson Regression: University of Southeastern Philippines Advanced Studies Mintal, Davao City

A Poisson regression was conducted to predict the number of academic publications based on experience and research hours. The regression showed that for every extra hour spent on research per week, there was a statistically significant 8.5% increase in the expected number of publications, while experience level was not a significant predictor. The assumptions of the Poisson regression were met.

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99 views19 pages

Count Data Analysis Using Poisson Regression: University of Southeastern Philippines Advanced Studies Mintal, Davao City

A Poisson regression was conducted to predict the number of academic publications based on experience and research hours. The regression showed that for every extra hour spent on research per week, there was a statistically significant 8.5% increase in the expected number of publications, while experience level was not a significant predictor. The assumptions of the Poisson regression were met.

Uploaded by

danna ibanez
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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University of Southeastern Philippines

ADVANCED STUDIES
Graduate School of Government and Management
Mintal, Davao CIty

COUNT DATA ANALYSIS USING


POISSON REGRESSION

University of Southeastern Philippines │ILEAP 2019


WHAT IS POISSON REGRESSION?

 Poissonregression is used to predict


a dependent variable that consists of
"count data" given one or more
independent variables.
COUNT DATA EXAMPLES
Number of eggs in a clutch that hatch
Number of domestic violence incidents in a month
Number of times juveniles needed to be restrained
during tenure at a correctional facility
Number of infected plants per transect

 (The Analysis Factor, Karen Grace-Martin)


ASSUMPTIONS

 Your dependent variable consists of count data.


 You have one or more independent variables,
which can be measured on a continuous, ordinal
or nominal/dichotomous scale.
 You should have independence of observations.

 The distribution of counts (conditional on the


model) follow a Poisson distribution.
 The mean and variance of the model are identical.
POSSIBLE POISSON DISTRIBUTED DATA

 number of students suspended by schools in


Davao
 number of times people in Davao default on
their credit card repayments in a five year
period based on predictors such as job status
 number of students who are awarded a 1st
class mark in STEM
SAMPLE RESEARCH
 The Director of Research of a small university
wants to assess whether the experience of an
academic and the time they have available to carry
out research influences the number of
publications they produce. Therefore, a random
sample of 35 academics from the university are
asked to take part in the research: 18 are
experienced academics and 17 are recent
academics. The number of hours they spent on
research in the last 12 months and the number of
peer-reviewed publications they generated are
recorded.
SATISFYING ASSUMPTIONS

 The mean and variance of the model are


identical.
 The distribution of counts (conditional on the
model) follow a Poisson distribution.
 The first table in the output is the Model
Information table (as shown below). This
confirms that the dependent variable is the
"Number of publications", the probability
distribution is "Poisson" and the link function is
the natural logarithm (i.e., "Log").
 The second table, Case Processing Summary,
shows you how many cases (e.g., subjects)
were included in your analysis (the "Included"
row) and how many were not included (the
"Excluded" row), as well as the percentage of
both.
 The Categorical Variable Information table
highlights the number and percentage of cases
(e.g., subjects) in each group of each
independent categorical variable in your
analysis. In this analysis, there is only one
categorical independent variable (also known
as a "factor"), which was experienced.
 The Continuous Variable Information table can
provide a rudimentary check of the data for any
problems, but is less useful than other
descriptive statistics you can run separately
before running the Poisson regression
 A value of 1 indicates equidispersion whereas
values greater than 1 indicate overdispersion
and values below 1 indicate underdispersion.
 -overdispersed models more often indicates the
usage of negative binomial
 -underdispersed models more often indicates
the usage of poisson
 The Omnibus Test table fits somewhere
between this section and the next. It is a
likelihood ratio test of whether all the
independent variables collectively improve the
model over the intercept-only model (i.e., with
no independent variables added).
 There is not usually any interest in the model
intercept. However, we can see that the
experience of the academic was not
statistically significant (p = .267), but the
number of hours worked per week was
statistically significant (p = .012). This table is
mostly useful for categorical independent
variables because it is the only table that
considers the overall effect of a categorical
variable.
 A Poisson regression was run to predict the
number of publications an academic publishes
in the last 12 months based on the experience
of the academic and the number of hours an
academic spends each week working on
research. For every extra hour worked per week
on research, 1.085 (95% CI, 1.018 to 1.155)
times more publications were published, a
statistically significant result, p = .012.

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