United International University

Department of Electrical & Electronic Engineering

Course No. EEE 473
(Power Plant Engineering)
PPE-8
Date delivered: 16 & 20 July 2019

Load Forecasting

Engr. M Ali Zulquarnain

EEE Department, United International University, Dhaka
E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]
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 Course Outline
1) Sources of energy
2) Power plants
 Diesel
 Hydro
 Thermal (Steam Power Plants)
 Nuclear
[Includes selection of location (siting) and types of turbines (Impulse
and Reaction)]
3) Power plant instrumentation
4) Load forecasting
5) General scheduling
6) Economics of power generation
7) Electricity tariff
8) Power plant cycles
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 Learning Objectives
The objectives of this lesson are to learn the
followings:
 Load forecasting
 Chronological load curves or Load curves
 Load duration curve
 Various factors in connection with load
forecasting

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 Load Forecasting
 Load forecasting is the prediction of electrical
power required to meet the short term, medium
term or long term demands.
 Electrical load forecasting is an important process
that can increase the efficiency and revenues for
the electrical generating and distribution
companies.
 It helps them to plan on their capacity and
operations in order to reliably supply all consumers
with the required energy.
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 Types of Forecasting

Load Forecasts

Short term forecasts Medium forecasts Long term forecasts

(one hour to a week) (a month up to a year) (over one year)

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 Factors for Accurate Forecasts
 Weather influence
 Dry and wet bulb temperature
 Dew point
 Humidity
 Wind speed & direction, Sunshine, etc.
 Time factors
 The day of the week
 The hour of the day
 Holiday
 Customer classes
 Residential
 Commercial
 Industrial 6
Load Curves

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Variable Load on Power Stations

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 Variable Load on Power Stations

 Power plant engineers always try that the

alternators in the power station should run at their
rated capacity for maximum efficiency.
 But, the demands
of the consumers
have wide
variations from
time to time due
to uncertain
demands of the
consumers.
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 Variable Load on Power Stations

 Such uncertain demands makes the design of a

power station highly complex.
 So, it is important
to focus attention
to the nature of
variable loads on
power stations.

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 Variable Load on Power Stations

Effects of variable loads on power stations:

 Need of additional equipment
 Increase in production cost

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 Load Curves
The curve showing the variation of load on the
power station with respect to (w.r.t) time is known as
a load curve. There are different types of load curve:
 Daily load curve
 Monthly load curve
 Yearly load curve

A typical Daily Load Curve 12

 Load Curves
Importance of the daily load curves:
 The daily load curve shows the variations of load
on the power station during
different hours of the day.
 The area under the daily load curve gives the
number of units generated in the day.
 The highest point represents the maximum
demand on the station on that day.
 The area under the daily load curve divided by the
total number of hours gives the average load on
the station in the day. 13
 Load Curves

 The ratio of the area under the load curve to the

total area of rectangle in which it is contained gives
the Load Factor i.e.,

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 Load Curves
 The load curve helps in selecting* the size
and number of generating units.
 The load curve helps in preparing the
operation schedule** of the station.
* It will be shown later that number and size of the
generating units are selected to fit the load curve.
This helps in operating the generating units at or
near the point of maximum efficiency.
** It is the sequence and time for which the various
generating units (i.e., alternators) in the plant will be
put in operation. 15
Important Terms and Factors
Important Terms and Factors used in load forecasting:
A. Terms
1) Connected load
2) Maximum demand (Load)
3) Average load
B. Factors
1) Demand factor
2) Diversity factor
3) Load factor
4) Plant Capacity factor
5) Plant Use/Utilization factor
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 Important Terms
1) Connected load: It is the sum of continuous
ratings of all the equipment connected to the
supply system.
 For instance, if a consumer has
connections of five 100-watt lamps
and a power point (outlet) of 500
watts, then connected load of the
consumer is -
(5 × 100) + 500 = 1000 watts

100 W
100 W
100 W
100 W
100 W
500 W
 The sum of the connected loads of
all the consumers is the connected
load to the power station. 17
 Important Terms
2) Maximum demand: It is the greatest demand of
load on the power station during a given period.
 Referring back to the load curve of Fig. 3.2, the
maximum demand on the power station during
the day is 6 MW and it occurs at 6 P.M.
 Maximum demand is
generally less than the
connected load because all
the consumers do not switch
on their connected load to
the system at a time. 18
 Important Terms
3) Average load: The average of loads occurring on
the power station in a given period (day or month
or year) is known as average load or average
demand.

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 Important Factors
1) Demand factor: It is the ratio of maximum
demand on the power station to its connected
load i.e.,

(< 1)

 The knowledge of demand factor is vital in

determining the capacity of the plant
equipment.

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 Typical Demand Factors

Maximum demand = Demand factor x Connected load

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 Important Factors
2) Diversity factor: The ratio of the sum of individual
maximum demands to the maximum demand on
power station is known as diversity factor i.e.,

(>1)

 Diversity factor will always be greater than 1.

 The greater the diversity factor, the lesser is the cost of
generation of power.
 Greater diversity factor means lesser maximum demand. This in
turn means that lesser plant capacity is required. Thus, the
capital investment on the plant is reduced.
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Typical Diversity Factors

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 Important Factors
3) Load factor: The ratio of average load to the
maximum demand during a given period is known
as load factor i.e.,
(< 1)

 The load factor may be daily load factor, monthly load factor or annual load
factor if the time period considered is a day or month or year. Load factor is
always less than 1 because average load is smaller than the maximum
demand.
 The load factor plays key role in determining the overall cost per unit
generated. Higher the load factor of the power station, lesser will be the
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cost per unit generated.
 Important Factors
4) Plant capacity factor: It is the ratio of actual
energy produced to the maximum possible energy
that could have been produced during a given
period i.e.,

(Plant Factor)

Plant Load Factor is the old definition of Capacity Factor25

 Plant Capacity Factor
 The plant capacity factor is an indication of the
reserve capacity of the plant.
 A power station is so designed that it has some
reserve capacity for meeting the increased load
demand in future.
 Therefore, the installed capacity of the plant is
always somewhat greater than the maximum
demand on the plant.

 The plant will have no reserve capacity when Plant

Capacity equal to Maximum Demand. 26
 Important Factors
5) Plant use factor: It is the ratio of kWh generated
to the product of plant capacity and the number
of hours for which the plant was in operation i.e.,

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Units Generated per Annum

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 All Factors in a Table
# Factors Ratios Value
Max. demand
1. Demand Factor = <1
Connected load

Sum of individual Max. demands

2. Diversity Factor = >1
Max. demand on power station

3. Load Factor = Average load

<1
Maximum demand

Actual energy produced <1

4. Plant Capacity Factor = Max. energy that could have been produced
(Plant Factor)

Average demand (load) x T

= <1
Plant capacity x T

Average demand (load)

= <1
Plant capacity
Station output in kWh
5. Plant Use Factor = <1 29
Plant capacity x Hours of use
 All Factors in a Table
# Factors Ratios Value
Max. demand
1. Demand Factor = <1
Connected load

Sum of individual Max. demands

2. Diversity Factor = >1
Max. demand on power station

3. Load Factor = Average load

<1
Maximum demand

Actual energy produced <1

4. Plant Capacity Factor = Max. energy that could have been produced
(Plant Factor)

Average demand (load) x T

= <1
Plant capacity x T

Average demand (load)

= <1
Plant capacity
Station output in kWh
5. Plant Use Factor = <1 30
Plant capacity x Hours of use
 All Factors in a Table
# Factors Ratios Value
Max. demand
1. Demand Factor = <1
Connected load

Sum of individual Max. demands

2. Diversity Factor = >1
Max. demand on power station

3. Load Factor = Average load

<1
Maximum demand

Actual energy produced <1

4. Plant Capacity Factor = Max. energy that could have been produced
(Plant Factor)

Average demand (load) x T

= <1
Plant capacity x T

Average demand (load)

= <1
Plant capacity
Station output in kWh
5. Plant Use Factor = <1 31
Plant capacity x Hours of use
 All Factors in a Table
# Factors Ratios Value
Max. demand
1. Demand Factor = <1
Connected load

Sum of individual Max. demands

2. Diversity Factor = >1
Max. demand on power station

3. Load Factor = Average load

<1
Maximum demand

Actual energy produced <1

4. Plant Capacity Factor = Max. energy that could have been produced
(Plant Factor)

Average demand (load) x T

= <1
Plant capacity x T

Average demand (load)

= <1
Plant capacity
Station output in kWh
5. Plant Use Factor = <1 32
Plant capacity x Hours of use
 All Factors in a Table
# Factors Ratios Value
Max. demand
1. Demand Factor = <1
Connected load

Sum of individual Max. demands

2. Diversity Factor = >1
Max. demand on power station

3. Load Factor = Average load

<1
Maximum demand

Actual energy produced <1

4. Plant Capacity Factor = Max. energy that could have been produced
(Plant Factor)

Average demand (load) x T

= <1
Plant capacity x T

Average demand (load)

= <1
Plant capacity
Station output in kWh
5. Plant Use Factor = <1 33
Plant capacity x Hours of use
 Load Duration Curve
When the load elements of a load-curve are
arranged in the order of descending magnitudes, the
curve thus obtained is called a load duration curve.

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Load Duration Curve …

Chronological Load Curve Load Duration Curve

Base Load Base Load

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 Load Duration Curve
The following points may be noted about load duration curve:
(i) The load duration curve gives the data in a more presentable form.
It readily shows the number of hours during which the given load
has prevailed.
(ii) The area under the load duration curve is equal to the area of the
corresponding load curve.
(iii) The load duration curve can be extended to include any period of
time.
 By laying out the abscissa from 0 hour to 8760 hours, the
variation and distribution of demand for an entire year can be
summarized in one curve.
 The curve thus obtained is called the annual load duration
curve. 36
 Types of Loads
 A device which taps electrical energy from the electric
power system is called a load on the system.
 The load may be resistive (e.g., electric lamp), inductive
(e.g., induction motor), capacitive or some combination
of them. The various types of loads on the power system
are:
1) Domestic load
2) Commercial load Read brief descriptions of
these loads from Metha’s
3) Industrial load
book (Section: 3.7)
4) Municipal load
5) Irrigation load
6) Traction load (electric train, tram, etc.) 37
Notes on Load, Demand and Diversity Factors

Notes:
(1) Load and Demand factors are always less than 1 while
Diversity factor is more than unity.

(< 1)

(< 1)

(2) High load and diversity factors are the desirable qualities
of the power system.
Values of other two factors are also less than 1 38
 Example
Determination of the capacity of a distribution x-former
when connected loads of all consumers are known.
1) Determine the maximum demand of the
individual consumer by using its connected
load and appropriate demand factors;
2) Add the maximum demands of all
consumers (here “a”, “b” and “c”) and divide
the sum by the diversity factor between the
consumers;
3) Value obtained in Step-2 above is the
minimum capacity of the x-former;
4) Actual capacity of the x-former may be
determine by adding some reserve capacity
to the value obtained in Step-2. 39
Solved Problem-2

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 Solved Problem-7

Maximum Demand
on the X-former ?

Connected load
Main Feeder with
of each type ?
Overall System Diversity Factor of 1.35

Domestic Commercial Industrial

Max Demand: 1,500 kW Max Demand: 2,000 kW Max Demand: 10.000 kW
Diversity of Group: 1.2 Diversity of Group: 1.1 Diversity of Group: 1.25
Demand Factor: 0.8 Demand Factor: 0.9 Demand Factor: 1.0 41
Solved Problem-7

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Solved Problem-14

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 Assignments
(a) Students with odd IDs: Solved problems with odd numbers

(b) Students with even IDs: Solved problems with even numbers

Book:
Principles of Power System by V K Metha
(Solved Problems, 3.2 to 3.17)

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 References
1) Principles of Power System by V K Metha

Sections : 3.1 to 3.8

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Questions ?

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