International Financial Management Pgapte
International Financial Management Pgapte
International Financial Management Pgapte
P G Apte
The Eclectic Paradigm:
The why, where and how of the
MNC
Why Ownership-specific (O)
advantages
• Decline? or Renewal?
Introduction
• Why can’t the local reproduce or nullify the ownership-
specific or location-specific advantages of MNCs?
• Many activities are internalized within a firm and carried out
within the framework of internal contractual arrangements rather
than by means of contracts with independent external agents.
• Through vertical integration, exclusive supply contracts,
patents and copyrights MNCs attempt to protect their proprietary
technologies or access to cheap, high-quality inputs.
• The sheer scale of their operations and ability to centralize
many tasks allow them to achieve scale economies which their
smaller local competitors cannot avail of
• MNCs can minimize tax burden by means of transfer pricing
and location in tax havens
Foreign market entry
• Export entry
– agents/distributors (foreign or domestic)
– foreign sales branches and subsidiaries
• Contract-based entry
– licensing and franchising
• Investment-based entry
– foreign direct investments
– cross-border mergers and acquisitions
– joint ventures
Investment-based entry
• Foreign direct investment
– relatively slow entry
– maintains control over production, distribution, and
intellectual property
Exposure to
exchange rate Probability of
risk bankruptcy
Exposure to
country risk
THE ADJUSTED PRESENT VALUE (APV)
FRAMEWORK
(1) In the first step, evaluate the project as if it is financed
entirely by equity. The rate of discount is the required rate of
return on equity corresponding to the risk class of the project.
(2) In the second step, add the present values of any cashflows
arising out of special financing features of the project such as
external financing, special subsidies if any and so forth. The rate
of discount used to find these present values should reflect the
risk associated with each of the cash flows.
(3) Tax benefits of debt:
Additional borrowing capacity : B = TDEGPV
Tax savings : (RD )B = (RD )(TDE GPV)
RD : Pre-tax Cost of Debt : Tax Rate
Discount using RD
The APV Approach
Add PV of any other cash flows on account of subsidies,
concessional finance etc.
Two assumptions:
(1) Firm will be able to utilize the interest tax shield fully in
every year. If not, carrying it forward involves loss of
time value
(2) The benefit of tax shield is fully appropriated by the firm
i.e. by the shareholders
In general, the calculation of the interest tax shield as
presented here probably represents an overestimate of
the true benefit from added borrowing capacity.
Cross-Border Projects
The main added complications which distinguish a foreign
project from a domestic project can be summarized as follows :
Year 0 1 2
Cash Flow -50 40 60
Suppose the risk free real rates in India and Shangrila are
5% p.a., the inflation rate in India is 5% p.a. while inflation
in Shangrila is 10% p.a. The nominal risk free rates are
10.25% in India and 15.50% in Shangrila.
Example …
The current SGD/INR exchange rate is 0.2000 (i.e. 5.00 SGD
per INR) while the one and two year forward rates are 0.1909
and 0.1822. These in turn equal the spot rates expected at the
end of year 1 and 2 respectively. The project evaluated from a
local point of view yields an NPV of
SGD {-50 + (40.0/1.1550) + [60.0/(1.1550)2] } million
= SGD 29.61 million
Translated into parent currency using the current spot rate
this gives an NPV of INR 5.92 million.
Now translate SGD cash flows into their INR equivalent using
the appropriate forward rates which also equal the expected
spot rate at the relevant time and discount these using the risk
free nominal rate in India.
Example …
This yields an NPV of
{ (-50.0/5.0) + [(40.0 0.1909)/(1.1025)]
+ [(60.0 0.1822)/(1.1025)2]}
= INR 5.92 million
This shows that when global capital markets are perfectly
integrated and all the parity conditions are satisfied,
evaluation of projects can be done from either local or parent
perspective.
Example …
(b) Now consider the case when there are capital controls in
place which segment the international capital markets. In
particular, suppose the government of Shangrila has imposed
capital controls which raise the real rate of interest in
Shangrila. The inflation rates in India and Shangrila are, as
before, 5% and 10% p.a., the real risk free rate in India is 5%
but that in Shangrila is 10%. The risk free nominal rates are
therefore 10.25% in India and 26.50% in Shangrila. The
forward rates are 0.1743 and 0.1519. However, due to capital
controls and intervention on the part of Shangrila’s central
bank the SGD is expected to remain at 0.20 INR. Consider a
project in Shangrila with the following net cash flows (SGD
Million):
Year 0 1 2
-50 30 40
Example …
Using a discount rate of 26.50%, the NPV of these cash flows is
{-50 + (30/1.2650) + [40/(1.2650)2]}m SGD = -1.29m SGD
Now translate these SGD cash flows into their INR equivalents
using the expected spot rate of 0.20 INR per SGD through the
life of the project and discount the resulting INR cash flows
using a discount rate of 10.25%. The cash flows are ( -10, 6, 8)
million INR and the NPV is INR 2.02 million. Thus it appears
that the project is acceptable from parent perspective.
Is this a correct conclusion? If not what is the correct
approach?
Are there any reasons why MNCs might wish to undertake
such projects?
Example …
(c) The opposite case is easy to construct. Consider a
Shangrila firm contemplating a direct investment project in
India under the same cicumstances as in case (b) above.
Suppose the cash flows from the project are (-10, 6, 8) million
INR. With a discount rate of 10.25%, this yields an NPV of
INR 2.02 million from the local perspective – which now is
the Indian perspective. Translated into SGD at the expected
spot rate of 0.2000 INR per SGD, these cash flows would be
(-50, 30,40) million SGD. With a discount rate of 26.50%, the
NPV works out to be –1.29 million SGD. It appears that the
project is viable from the local point of view but not from
parent point of view. What should the Shangrila firm do?
Example …
It should try to acquire local financing for the project.
Suppose it can borrow INR 12.02 million at 10.25% in India.
It can finance the project construction with INR 10 million
out of this and immediately remit the rest to the parent
company. It invests the first year’s net cash flow at 10.25%. At
the end of two years it has INR 14.61 million, which is enough
to pay off its two year loan.
When global capital markets are segmented and parity
conditions are violated, the correct procedure is to value the
project from parent perspective allowing explicitly for
exchange rate risk. Also this example had assumed away the
project’s business risks by assuming the projects cash flows in
local currency to be risk free. The problem becomes more
complicated when the firm must take into account project-
specific risks in addition to the exchange rate risk.
Valuing Risky Cashflows
____________________________________________________
After-Tax Cashflow(Z$ Million)
Boom Recession
(prob.=0.6) (prob.=0.40)
13.8 10.5
____________________________________________________
Cashflow Translated to Rupees(Million)
Z$/Rs. 7.5 103.5 78.75
(prob.=0.5) (prob.=0.1) (prob.=0.3)
Z$/Rs. 5.5 75.9 57.75
(prob.=0.5) (prob.=0.5) (prob.=0.1)
____________________________________________________
Valuing Risky Cashflows …
Once again, with integrated capital markets and validity of parity
conditions, we can discount the expected foreign currency
cashflow, Zimbabwe dollars [0.613.8+0.410.5] million, using a
discount rate which equals the rate of return required by
Zimbabwean investors from similar projects and translate into
rupees at the current spot rate. In obtaining this discount rate we
must employ the international CAPM which takes account of the
covariance of the project with the world market portfolio and the
Rs/Z$ exchange rate.
If host and home country capital markets are segmented this
procedure cannot be employed. The expected value in home
currency, of a risky foreign currency cashflow at a future date is
given by
Et(CFHT) = Et(CFFT)Et(ST) + cov[CFFT,ST]
Valuing Risky Cashflows …
In the example given above the expected value is
(103.50.1)+(75.90.5)+(78.750.3)+(57.750.1)
= Rs.77.7 million
To estimate this, we need forcasts of future spot rate and an
estimate of the covariance between the spot rate and the foreign
currency cashflow. This has to be discounted at a rate equal to
the rate of return required by home currency investors on
similar projects. This must be estimated with a single-country
CAPM augmented by exchange risk.
Degree of capital market integration is the crucial issue.
Integration is far from complete. This raises difficult issues.
Difficulties in Incorporating Exchange Rate
Risk and Choice of Discount Rates
• Reliable exchange rate forecasts are notoriously difficult to
obtain.
• Linking the performance of the project with the exchange
rate is no less difficult. If the project is intended to serve not
only the host country market but also third-country markets,
the issues are still more complex since the performance of the
project now depends upon several exchange rates and not just
the home country-host country exchange rate.
• The appropriate risk premium to be added for exchange risk
is far from easy to estimate in practice.
• The international CAPM is hard to operationalize.
International taxation introduces further
complications.
• Treatment of dividend income by home country government
• Withholding taxes,
• Treatment (by host and home country tax authorities) of
other forms of transfers such as interest, royalties etc. between
the subsidiary and the parent.
• Existence or otherwise of double taxation avoidance
agreements and their scope.
• The possibility of using transfer prices which are different
from arms-length prices.
• These are all highly complex issues best left to the specialists
in this area.
In practice, firms use their all-equity required rate of return
and add a risk premium which is supposed to reflect not only
exchange risk but also other risks such as political or country
risk and in some cases also the fact that the firm may be
totally unfamiliar with the host country and may have to
incur additional costs. This is a rather arbitrary procedure.
= a(NPVJV, A)
a = [NPVJV,B/(NPVJV,A+ NPVJV,B)]