Probability Theory

Learning Outcomes

A student shall be able to;

 Describe and use probability in decision making

 Use three methods of probability calculation
 Understand addition & multiplication rule
 Calculate conditional probability
 Use Baye’s theorem for effective decision making
 Develop the skill to formulate and solve business problems
 Contents

1. Factorial Notation and Counting Principals

2. Permutation, Combination and Basics of Set Theory
3. Random Experiment, Trail and Event, Exhaustive Cases
4. Favorable Cases, Mutually Exclusive Cases, Equally Likely Cases
5. Dependent and Independent Events
6. Complementary Events
7. Probability Defined and Historical Development
8. Different Approaches to Probability
9. Addition and Multiplication Theorem of Probability
10. Conditional Probability and Baye’s Theorem
11. Contingency Table Approach
 Factorial Notation

Factorial ‘n’ is the continued periodic product of the first ‘n’ natural numbers.
Symbolically, it is written as n! or .

n! = n. (n-1). (n-2)………..1.

For Example:

1. 2! =2X1
2. 3! =3X2X1
3. 4! =4X3X2X1
4. 1! =1
5. 0! =1
6. 7! = 7 X 6 X 5 X 4!
= 7 X 6 X 5 X 4 X 3!
= 7 x 6!
Fundamental Principles of Counting

1. Multiplication Rule

If an operation can be performed in m ways and having been

performed in one of these ways a second operation can be
performed in n ways the total number of ways completing
both the operations can be given by m x n.
Fundamental Principles of Counting

2. Permutation
When order of arrangement matters, we apply permutation. i.e., n dissimilar
things can be arranged n! different ways;

n!

n
P r
(n  r )!

A permutation for ‘r’ dissimilar things out of ‘n’ that is given by;

Permutation of ‘n’ objects in a circular order;

( n  1)!
Permutation with restrictions;

If out of ‘n’ objects n1 are alike of one kind, n2 are alike of another kind, n1....., nk
are alike, the number of permutations are;

n!
n1!n2 !.....nk !

If we have to find out the permutations of the letters of word FARIDABAD

(When A occurs 3 times and D occurs two times) then it is given by;

9! 9  8  7  6  5  4  3!
  15120
3!2! 3!2 1
Combinations
If order doesn’t matter in selection than it is known as the problem of combination and
if out of total n, r selections has to be made the combinations can be given by;

n!
n
Cr 
r!.(n  r )!

n
Cr  nCn  r
The total number of combinations of n distinct objects taking 1, 2, ...., n
respectively, at a time is;

n
C1  n C2  n C3 ......  n Cn  2 n  1
(8) In how many ways two balls can be selected at random
out of 8 balls?

8!
8
C2   28
2!.(8  2)!

(9) In how many ways a group of 12 persons can be

divided in to a group of 7 and 5 persons respectively.

 n
Cr  n Cn  r

 12
C7 12C127 12C5  792
Set Theory
A collection of well defined distinct objects is known as a set.

Representation of a Set;
A set can be represented in either tabular (roster) or set-builder form such as; a
set of vowels is given by;

𝑉 = {𝑎, 𝑒, 𝑖, 𝑜, 𝑢}

𝑉 ={x | ‘x’ is vowel in English alphabet}

Set Theory

Complement of a Set;
𝐴𝑐 = {x | x is not a member of A}

Operations on Sets;
a. Union of sets
b. Intersection of sets
Set Theory

Complement of a Set;
𝐴𝑐 = {x | x is not a member of A}

Operations on Sets;
a. Union of sets
b. Intersection of sets

De Morgan’s Law;

 A  B    A  B
 A  B    A  B
Experiment and Random
Experiment
An operation that results in two or more outcomes is known as an Experiment.
An experiment which if conducted repeatedly under homogeneous conditions
does not give same results is known as a Random Experiment. The result may
be any one of the various ‘outcomes’ but may not be same each time. The
result is not unique or same every time.
For Instance;
1. Tossing of a coin
2. Rolling of a die
3. Picking a card from a pack of cards
4. Conversion of a sales call
Trail and Event

The performance of a random experiment is called a trial and outcome an

event. Thus tossing a coin can be called a trail and the results of getting head or
tail is called an event.
An event could be simple or composite.
An event is simple if it corresponds to a simple possible outcome. However if
an event can be decomposed further into simple events it is known as a
compound event.
For Example;
1. Getting a tail in toss of a coin is simple event
2. Getting a red card from a pack of cards can be further decomposed in 26
simple outcomes or events.
Exhaustive Cases

The total number of possible outcomes of a random experiment constitutes an

exhaustive set of events, i.e., the events are said to be exhaustive if all possible
cases i.e., outcomes are considered.

For Instance;
1. Exhaustive cases in toss of a coin are (H, T)
2. Exhaustive cases in roll of a die are (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
3. Exhaustive cases in case of sales call are (Success, failure)
4. Exhaustive cases in case of movement of stock price are (Up, Down, No
Change).
Favorable Cases

The number of outcomes which result in the happening of a desired event are
called favourable cases.

For Example;
1. In throw of a die number of favourable cases for getting an odd number
are 3.
2. In order to pull a red card the number of favourable cases are 26.
3. Number of favourable cases that a sales call may get converted are 1.
4. Number of favourable cases that stock price would decrease is 1.
5. Number of favourable cases that a girl is selected for a team in out of 6
girls when there are 20 employees are 6.
Mutually Exclusive and Equally Likely Events
Two sets are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of any one of them
prevents the occurrence of any other event in the same experiment. i.e., at the
same time.
Mutually Exclusive events can’t occur simultaneously in the same experiment.

Events are said to be equally likely, if after taking into account all conditions no
event can be expected to occur in preference to any other event in the same
experiment. i.e. all the events have an equal chance of occurrence.

For instance;
1. Getting head or tail in toss of a coin.
2. Getting even or odd number in the roll of a dice.
3. Getting a black or red card in a draw from the pack of cards.
Historical Development (1654)

Blaise Pascal
Pierre de Fermat
 (1657) published the first book on probability;
entitled
“De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae”
or
“The Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae”

Jakob Bernoulli (1654-1705)

Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754)

In 1812
published his book, entitled
“Théorie Analytique des
(1749-1827)
Probabilités”
 In 1933 by a
Russian mathematician
A. Kolmogorov outlined an axiomatic
approach that forms the basis for
the modern theory in his work
Foundations of Probability Theory

Born on, Jan. 2, 1940,

S.R. Srinivasa Varadhan,
awarded the 2007 Abel Prize “
for his fundamental contributions to
“Probability theory”
Probability Defined

A numerical measure of uncertainty is provided by a

very important branch of statistics known as Theory
of Probability.
Mathematical or Classical Definition of Probability

If an experiment can result in (m + n) equally likely and, mutually exclusive and

exhaustive cases and m of them are favorable to the occurrence of event ‘A’ and the
remaining, i.e., n are against the occurrence of event ‘A’. Then the probability of
occurrence of event A denoted by P(A), is defined as the ratio m/(m + n). i.e., the
probability of occurrence of A is given by:

Number of Outcomes Favourable to A m

P (A) = 
Number of Exhaustive Outcomes mn

The probability of occurrence of an event always lies between 0 and 1

Relative Frequency Approach

Under this approach of probability of happening of an event is the proportion of the

time that event of same kind will occur in the long run if an experiment is repeated N
times under identical conditions and an event E occurs ‘n’ times then;

 N  n and n is a ratio.
N
n
0  1
N
n/N = 0, never shows that ‘n’ is an impossible event but in N trials the occurrence of
n is so insignificant that it can be considered as impossible event.
Similarly, n/N = 1, never means a certain event but it shows that in N trials of same
experiment the occurrence of n is so frequent that it can be considered as certain
event.
Subjective Approach

This is also known as personalist approach of probability as it presumes that any

decision reflects the personality of decision maker, and subjective matters are
important in assigning probability to an event.
Suppose we have data reflecting a stock price for last two years and further suppose
that out of 1000 quotations relating to this share price, there was price rise on 400
occasions, then the empirical probability of a price rise in future would be 400/1000
= 0.4.
On the basis of this information some people will buy shares and some would sell it.
Here the decision of the decision makes reflects his personality of risk taking
abilities.
This approach is used in business decision making most. This approach is highly
flexible in nature.
Axiomatic Approach

This is purely mathematical approach and uses set theory to draw results. He laid
down some concepts or axioms and using these axioms he derived entire theory
of probability by deductive logic. It uses both classical and empirical approach of
probability.
He uses union and intersection operations of set theory to deduce the probability
of an event.
 Addition Theorem of Probability
If A and B are two events then the probability that at least one of them occurs is
denoted by P (A  B) and is given by:P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B)

Mutually, Exclusive events have no common sample points in them, Therefore, if A

and B are two mutually exclusive events then A  B =.
In this case P (A  B ) = 0. In case of mutually exclusive events;

P (A  B ) = P (A) + P (B)
If there are three events A, B and C (mutually exclusive). Then,
P (A  B  C ) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C)
Similarly, if there are ‘n’ mutually exclusive events then,
P (A1  A2 …………  An) = P (A1) + P (A2) +…………… + P (An)
 Conditional Probability
Let ‘A’ be any event in a sample space S, where P (A) > 0.

The probability then an event ‘B’ occurs subject to the condition that event ‘A’ has
already occurred is called the conditional probability of the occurrence of the event
‘B’ on the assumption that event ‘A’ has already occurred (or happened) and is
denoted by the symbol P (B/A) and is read as the probability of ‘B’ given ‘A’.

If P (B/A) = 1, Then the occurrence of A  Occurrence of B.

 Multiplication Theorem

The Probability of simultaneous occurrence (or joint occurrence) of the two events
‘A’ and ‘B’ denoted by P (A  B) is given by the product of unconditional probability
of the occurrence of event ‘A’ by the conditional probability of the occurrence of
event ‘B’ on the assumption that event ‘A’ has already occurred.

Symbolically,

𝑃 𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 =
𝑃 𝐵𝐴

It is also called as ‘Joint Probability’.

 Illustrations
- The probability that A will live up-to 60 years is 3/4 and the probability that B will
live up-to 60 years is 2/3. What is the probability that (i) both A and B will live
up-to 60 years (ii) both die before reaching 60 years.

- It is 8 to 5 against a person who is now 40 years old living till he is 70 and 4 to

3 against a person now 50 living till he is 80. Find the probability that at-least
one of these people would be alive 30 years hence.

- A bag contains 5 black and 7 white balls. A ball is drawn at random and
replaced in the bag. Then a ball is drawn again. What is the probability that (i)
both balls drawn were black (ii) both the balls were white (iii) the first ball was
black and the second white (iv) the first was white and second was black
 Illustrations
- A bag contains 6 red and 3 white balls. Four balls are drawn out one by one
and not replaced. What is the probability that they are alternatively of different
colours?

- The probability that a contractor will get a contract for road construction is 4/9
and the probability that he will get the contract for water tank is 5/7. What is the
probability of getting at-least one of the contracts?

- A problem is given to two employees. The odds in favour of, A solving a

problem are 6 to 9 and the odd against B solving the same problem are 12 to
10. What is the probability that if both of them try the problem would be solved?
 Illustrations
- A candidate is called for interview by the three companies. For the first
company there are 12 candidates & for the three second are 15 candidates &
for the third are 10 candidates. What are the chances of his getting at least one
of the companies.
- What is the probability of getting exactly two heads in a single throw of three
coins.
- A salesman is known to sell a product in 3 out of 5 attempts while another
salesman in 2 out of 5 attempts. Find the probability that (i) No sale will be
affected when they both try to sell the product and (ii) Either of them will
succeed in selling the product.
- Find the probability of drawing two kings from a pack of cards in two successive
draws. The card is not being replaced.
 Illustrations
- A bag contains 4 white and 6 red balls. Two draws of one ball each are made
without replacement. What is the probability that (i) one is red and other is
white (ii) Both are red (iii) Both are white.
- Four cards are drawn at random from a pack of cards, what is the probability
that they are a king, a queen, a jack and an ace.
 Contingency Table Approach

Finance Major
Total
Yes No

Male 48 12 60
Gender
Female 25 15 40

73 27 100

Find
(i) P (Y|M) (iii) P(N |F) (v) P(M) (vii) P(Y) (ix) P(YM) (xi) P(F Y)
(ii) P (M|Y) (iv) P (F|N) (vi) P(F) (viii) P(N) (x) P(Y M) (xii) P(F N)
 Contingency Table Approach

Particle
Total
Yes No

Good 320 14 334

Wafers
Not Good 80 26 116

400 40 440
 Baye’s Theorem

𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 .𝑃 𝐴
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃 𝐵

Approximately 1% of people aged 40 – 50 have cancer. A person with cancer

has a 90% chance of positive test from a mammogram, while a person has a
10% chance of false positive result.
What is the probability a person has cancer given that he just had a positive
test result.
Let B = The person has the cancer
And A = The test is positive

𝑃 + 𝐶𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟 × 𝑃 𝐶𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟
𝑃 𝐶𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟 + =
𝑃 +

+
Cancer .90
.01 -
.10
Start Test
+
No Cancer .10
.99 -
.90
 .90 (.01)
𝑃 𝐶𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑟 + = = .084 = 8.3%
.01 .90 + .99 (.10)

Suppose a Bowl B1 has 2 red and 4 blue balls; Bowl B2 has 1 red and 2 blue
balls; and bowl B3 contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. Suppose probabilities of
selecting the Bowls is not same but are;

1 1 1
𝑃 𝐵1 = ; 𝑃 𝐵2 = ; 𝑃 𝐵3 =
3 6 2
(I) What is the probability of drawing a red ball? (II) Assuming that a red ball
was drawn, find the probability that it came from bowl 1?
 𝑃 𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵1 ∩ 𝑅 + 𝑃 𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅 + 𝑃 𝐵3 ∩ 𝑅

𝑃 𝐵1 |𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵1 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐵1 + 𝑃 𝐵2 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐵2 + 𝑃 𝐵3 )𝑃(𝑅|𝐵3

Red
B1 2/6
1/3 Blue
4/6
Red
B2 1/3
Start
1/6 Blue
2/3
Red
B3 5/9
1/2 Blue
4/9
 1 2 1 1 1 5 4
𝑃 𝑅 = × + × + × =
3 6 6 3 2 9 9

2 1
𝑃 𝑅 𝐵1 × 𝑃(𝐵1 ) ×3 1
𝑃 𝐵1 |𝑅 = = 6 =
𝑃(𝑅) 1 2 1 1 1 5 4
2×6+6×3+2×9

1
𝑃 𝐵2 |𝑅 =
8

5
𝑃 𝐵3 |𝑅 =
8
Suppose the probability that a particular student will get first division in the external
examination is 1/10. The student appeared in 10 class tests and obtained first
division in 4 of them. What is the probability now that the student will get a first
division in annual examination?

6 4
𝑃 𝐵 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴 = ;𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 =
10 10

1 9
P 𝐴 = ; 𝑃 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝐴 =
10 10

4 1
×
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 10 10
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = =
𝑃(𝐵) 1 4 9 6
× + ×
10 10 10 10
An event A can occur only if one or more of the set of exhaustive and mutually
exclusive events B1, B2,……………….,Bn. The probabilities P (B1), P
(B2),……………, P (Bn) and the conditional probabilities P (A/Bi), where i =
1,2,3,………………..,n for an event A to occur are known. Then the conditional
probability P (Bi /A) when A has already occurred is given by

 A
P Bi P B  
 i
B  i 
P  n
 A  A 
 P  Bi .P 
B 

i 1  i 
 A
P Bi P
B  
  i 

 A  A   A 
P B1 P 
B   P  B2 P 
B    ..........  P  Bn P 
B 
 1  2  n
What is the Probability of getting a head in toss of a fair coin?

Let, A is the event of getting a head in toss of a fair coin. Number of cases
favourabel to A are given by ‘m’ and number of cases against A are given by
‘n’, then total number of exhaustive cases can be given by m+n;
Here;
Number of cases favourable to occurrence of A i.e., m = 1
Number of exhaustive cases i.e. (m + n) = 2
Probability of getting a head in toss of a fair coin is given by;

m 1 1
P( A)   
m  n 11 2
What is the Probability of getting at-least one head in simultaneous
toss of two unbiased coins?

Total number of possible cases;

(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)
i.e. m+n=4

Number of favourable cases to event;

(H, H), (H, T), (T, H)
m=3

m 3
P ( A)  
mn 4
What is the Probability of getting an odd number in the roll of a dice?

Total number of possible cases;

(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
i.e. m+n=6

Number of favourable cases to event;

(1, 3, 5)
m=3

m 3 1
P ( A)   
mn 6 2
What is the chance of drawing a face card from a well shuffled pack of cards?

Total number of possible cases; (52)

i.e. m + n = 52

Number of favourable cases to event;

(K, K, K, K, Q, Q, Q, Q, J, J, J, J)
m = 12

m 12 3
P ( A)   
mn 52 13
What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53
Sundays?

Total number of possible cases;

(S, M), (M, T), (T, W), (W, T), (T, F), (F, S), (S, S)
i.e. m+n=7

Number of favorable cases to event;

(Saturday, Sunday), (Monday, Sunday)
m=2

m 2
P ( A)  
mn 7
What is the probability of getting a total of 6 on a roll of two dice?

Total number of possible cases;

(36)
i.e. m + n = 36

Number of favourable cases to event;

(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)
m=5

m 5
P ( A)  
mn 36
A bag contains 15 tickets marked with number between 1 to 15. One
ticket is drawn at random. Find the probability that;
A. The number is greater than 10.
B. The number is even.
C. The number is multiple of 2 0r 5.

Total number of possible cases; (15)

Number of favourable cases to event A;

5 1
P ( A)  
(11, 12, 13, 14, 15) 15 3
m=5
Total number of possible cases; (15)

Number of favourable cases to event B;

(2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14)
m=7

7
P( B) 
15
Total number of possible cases; (15)

Number of favourable cases to event C;

(2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 5, 15)
m=9

9 3
P (C )  
15 5
(10) A committee of 8 teachers is to be formed out of 6
science, 8 art teachers and a physical instructor. In how
many ways committees can be formed if;

(i) Any teacher can be included for the committee.

(ii) There should be 3 science and 4 art teachers on the
committee such that (a) any science teacher and any
arts teacher can be included, (b) One particular science
teacher must be on the committee, (c) three particular
arts teachers must not be in committee.

(i) 15
C8  6,435
(ii)
(a) 6
C3 8 C4 1 C1  1400

(a) 5
C2 8 C4 1 C1  700

(a) 6
C3 5 C4 1 C1  100
Ordered Partitions
(Distinguishable Objects):

(i) The total number of putting ‘n’ distinct objects into ‘r’
compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
equal to rn.

1 A B C 2
(ii) The total number of ways in which ‘n’ objects can be
put into ‘r’ compartments such that the first
compartment contains n1 objects, second n2 objects
and so on the rth compartment contains n, objects,
where, n1 + n2 + ..... + nr = n, is given by;

n!
n1!.n2 !.....nr !
Ordered Partitions
(Identical Objects):

(a) The total number of putting ‘n’ identical objects into

‘r’ compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
n  r 1
equal to Cr 1 , Where each compartment may
have none or any number of objects.

(b) The total number of putting ‘n’ identical objects into

‘r’ compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
( n  r )  ( r 1)
equal to Cr ,1 Where each compartment may
have at-least one of objects.
(c) The total number of putting ‘n’ identical objects into
‘r’ compartments which are marked as 1, 2, ....,r is
( n  kr )  ( r 1)
equal to Cr 1 , Where each compartment
may have at-least ‘k’ objects.
(11) 4 couples occupy 8 seats in a row at random. What
is the probability that all the ladies are seating next
to each other?

P5 4 P4 1
5
Required Probability  8

P8 14
(12) 12 persons are seated at random (i) in a row, (ii) in a
ring. Find the probabilities that three particular
persons are seating together.

10
P10 3 P3 1
Required Probability  12

P12 22

P9 3 P3 3
9
Required Probability  11 
P11 55
(13) 5 red and 2 black balls, each of different sizes, are
randomly laid down in a row, Find the probability
that;
a) First and last balls are black.
b) There are three red balls b/w two black balls.
c) Two black balls are placed side by side.

P2 5 P5 1
2
a) Required Probability  7

P7 21

P3 3 P3 2 P2 1
3
b) Required Probability  7

P7 7
 6
 2
c) Required Probability  6 P2  2
P
7
P7 7

(14) Each of the two players, A and B, get 26 cards at

random. Find the probability that each player has an
equal number of red and black cards.

26
C13 26 C13
Required Probability  52
 .21
C26
(15) 8 distinguish marbles are distributed at random in
three boxes numbered 1, 2, 3. Find the probability
that they contain 3, 4 and 1 marbles respectively.

8 marbles can be put in 38 ways in three boxes.

8! 1 280
Required Probability   8 
3!.4!.1! 3 6561
Relative Frequency Approach:
Under this approach of probability of happening of an event is the
proportion of the time that event of same kind will occur in the
long run if an experiment is repeated N times under identical
conditions and an event E occurs ‘n’ times then;

P E  
n
, Provided that N is very large
N
 N  n and n is a ratio.
N
n
0  1
N
n/N = 0, never shows that ‘n’ is an impossible event but in N trials
the occurrence of n is so insignificant that it can be considered as
impossible event.
Similarly, n/N = 1, never means a certain event but it shows that in N
trials of same experiment the occurrence of n is so frequent that it
can be considered as certain event.
Axiomatic or Modern Approach:
Given by A. Kolmogorov;

Let S be a sample space of an experiment and A be an event of this

sample space. Then P (A), is defined as a real value set function
which associates a real value corresponding to a subset A of
sample space S.
In order that P (A) denotes the probability function, the following
rules, popularly known as axioms or postulates of probability,
must be satisfied.
Content

1. Calculating probability using relative frequency approach

2. Addition theorem of probability
3. Multiplication theorem of probability
4. Conditional probability
5. Testing of independence of variables
Axiom I:
For any event A is sample space S, we have 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1.

Axiom II:
P (S) = 1

Axiom III:
If A1, A2, ...., Ak are mutually exclusive events of the sample
space S, then

k
P( A1  A2 ......  Ak )   P( Ai )
i 1
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT:
Let there be a sample space consisting of ‘n’ elements, i.e., S = {e1,
e2, ...., en}. Since the elementary events are mutually exclusive, we
n

have according to axiom III, P( S )   P(ei ). Similarly, if A = {e1, e2,

i 1

...., em} is any subset of S consisting of ‘m’ elements, where m ≤ n,

m
then P ( A)   P(ei ). Thus the probability of a sample space or an
i 1

event is equal to the sum of probabilities of its elementary events.

THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY:
Theorem (1): P ( )  0

Theorem (2): P( A)  1  P( A)

Theorem (3): P( A  B)  P( B)  P( A  B)

Theorem (4): P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
Addition Theorem of Probability
IMPORTANT:
(1) If A and B are mutually exclusive then, i.e., A  B = , then
P (A  B) = 0.

(2) The event A  B denotes the occurrence of either A or B or

both. Alternatively, it applies the occurrence of at-least one of
the two events.

(3) The event A  B denotes the compound or joint event, that

denotes the simultaneous occurrence of two events.
Conditional Probability:

Let ‘A’ be any event in a sample space S, where P (A) > 0.

The probability then an event ‘B’ occurs subject to the condition

that event ‘A’ has already occurred is called the conditional
probability of the occurrence of the event ‘B’ on the assumption
that event ‘A’ has already occurred (or happened) and is denoted by
the symbol P (B/A) and is read as the probability of ‘B’ given ‘A’.

If P (B/A) = 1. Then the occurrence of A  Occurrence of B.

Multiplication Rule of Probability:
The Probability of simultaneous occurrence (or joint occurrence) of
the two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ denoted by P (A  B) is given by the
product of unconditional probability of the occurrence of event ‘A’
by the conditional probability of the occurrence of event ‘B’ on the
assumption that event ‘A’ has already occurred.

Symbolically,

B
P(A  B)  P(A).P  
A
Simultaneously occurrence of events ‘A’ and ‘B’, i.e., A  B =
occurrence of the event ‘A’ and the occurrence of the event ‘B’
after event ‘A’ has already occurred of event ‘B’ and the
occurrence of event ‘A’ after ‘B’ has already occurred. i.e.,

B  A
P ( A  B )  P ( A).P   P ( B ).P 
 A B

P (A  B) can also be written as P(A.B). Hence,

 B
P ( A  B )  P ( A.B )  P ( A).P 
 A
B P( A  B)
 P 
 A P ( A)

B
If, P ( A)  0  P  is undefined.
 A
P ( ABC )  P ( A  B  C )

B  C 
 P ( A) P  P 
 A   A.B 

B  C 
 P ( A) P  
P 
 A   A  B 
If, A1, A2, ………………., An are ‘n’ events, then

P( A1 , A2 ,........ An )
 A2   A3   An 
 P( A1 ) P  P .............P  
 1  1 2
A A A  1 2
( A , A ,......., An 1 
)
Independent Events :
Events are said to be independent when the happening or
occurrence of any one of them does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of any other events, i.e., if ‘A’ and ‘B’ are two
independent events then the happening of an event ‘A’ is not
affect the probability of happening of the event ‘B’,
i.e., P (B/A) = P (B).

If two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ are independent then;

P (A  B) = P (A)  P(B)
Dependent or Contingent Events :
Events are said to be dependent or contingent if the happening or
occurrence of any one of them does affect the occurrence of any
other event.
Illustration :
If a bag contains 4 blue and 3 red balls. Two balls need to be
drawn successively. If ‘A’ is an event of drawing a blue ball and
‘B’ is an event of drawing a red ball.

Then,
 3
Probability of drawing a red ball P(A)
7
4
Probability of drawing a blue ball P(B)
7

If the ball drawn in first draw is replaced then there is no change in

the probability of 2nd draw but if the ball drawn in the first draw is
not replaced after the first draw, two cases arise

(i) Ball at first draw is blue

3 1
Probability of drawing a red ball 
6 2
3 1
Probability of drawing a blue ball 
6 2
(ii) Ball at first draw is red

2 1
Probability of drawing a red ball 
6 3
4 2
Probability of drawing a blue ball 
6 3

In the above discussed illustration if the ball is drawn in second

draw with replacement then the events are known as
independent otherwise dependent.
Complementary Events :
The concept of complementary events refers to the given sample
space. If an event ‘A’ contains some points of a sample space,
then the event complementary to ‘A’ will contain remaining
points in that sample space. The complement of an event ‘A’ is
the event ‘A’ does not occur, i.e., two complementary events are
opposite to each other.
Two complementary events are mutually exclusive and
Exhaustive.
i.e. for any event A

P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
And,

P(A)  P(Ac) = 0
Also,

P(A) = 1 - P(Ac)
If ‘A’ and ‘B’ are two events then the events
(A  Bc ) and (A  B ) are mutually exclusive and also
A = (A  Bc )  (A  B )
P (A) = P (A  Bc )  P (A  B )

(B  Ac ) and (B  A ) are mutually exclusive and also

B = (B  Ac )  (B  A )
P (B) = P (B  Ac )  P (B  A )
Unconditional Probability :
If the probability of happening of an event is without any
condition or prior knowledge of the occurrence of other events is
called unconditional probability.

If A1, A2,……………….,An are n independent events with respect

to probabilities of occurrence P1, P2, P3…………….,Pn, then the
probability of occurrence of at-least one of them is given by:

P( A1  A2  ................  An )  1  1  P1 1  P2 ............1  Pn 

   
 1  P A1 .P A2 ..........P An  
= 1 – Probability of happening of none of the events.
Probability of happening of none of the independent events
A1, A2,……………….,An
= 1 – Probability of happening of at-least one of the events.
Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events :
Two mutually exclusive events are disjoint in the sample space.
if A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then A  B = 0.
But in case of independent events A  B = P (A). P(B).

Therefore two mutually exclusive events cant not be independent.

Also in case of two mutually exclusive events occurrence of one of them

implies non-happening of other, with this concept also mutually exclusive
events can not be independent.

The concept of mutually exclusive events deals with the same trial , while the
concept of independent events deals with the different trials.
Illustrations
 A, B and C are bidding for a contract. It is believed that A has exactly
half the chance B has, B in turn is 4/5 as likely as C to win the
contract. What is the probability for each of them to win the
contract.

P(A) = Probability that A wins the contract

P(B) = Probability that B wins the contract
P(C) = Probability that C wins the contract

As given;
4 2
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑃 𝐶 = 𝑝, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑝
5 5
∵𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵 +𝑃 𝐶 =1

4 2
∴𝑝+ 𝑝+ 𝑝=1
5 5
Illustrations
A, B and C are bidding for a contract. It is believed that A has exactly half
the chance B has, B in turn is 4/5 as likely as C to win the contract. What
is the probability for each of them to win the contract.

P(A) = Probability that A wins the contract

P(B) = Probability that B wins the contract
P(C) = Probability that C wins the contract

As given
4 2
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑃 𝐶 = 𝑝, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑝
5 5
16. If A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events,
find P (B) if,
1 1
P(C )  P( A)  P( B)
3 2
17. If A, B and C are bidding for a contract. It is believed that A
has exactly half chances that B has, B in turn is 4/5th as likely
as C to win the contract. What is the probability for each to
win the contract.
U AB

A B
B-A
A-B
 P  A  B   P  A  P  A  B 
P B  A  P B   P  A  B 
P  A  B   P B  A  P  A  P B   P  A  B   P  A  B 
 P A  B   P A  B 

= Probability of only one of the events (or exactly one of the events)
A and B occurs.

The formula is applicable irrespective of the fact, that the events are independent or not. If the
events are known to be independent the following formula will also work.
Probability only one of A and B occurs

 P A.P B  PB .P A 
P  B  A  P  B   P  A  B 
 P  A  P  B  A  P  A  P  B   P  A  B 
 P A  B 
Similarly ,
P  A  B   P B   P  A  B 
From (1) and (2),
P (A  Bc ) = P [A – (A  B)] = P (A) – P (A  B)

The events (B  Ac ) and (B  A) are mutually exclusive and B = (B  Ac )  (B  A)

P (B) = P [(B  Ac ) + (B  A)]
P ( A  B ) = 1 – P (A  B)
•If A and B are two independent events, then
U AB
P (A  B) = 1 – P (Ac ).P (Bc )

A B
A  Bc
=A-B
There are 5 doors in a room. In how
many ways can three persons enter
the room using different doors?

5
P3  60
A lady is asked to rank 5 types
of washing powders according
to her preferences, how many
ways the powders can be
ranked?

120
In how many ways 6 passengers
can sit 15 available seats?

36,03,600
In how many ways the letters
of words Education can be
arranged?

3,62,880
In how many ways the letters
of words Statistics can be
arranged?

50,400
In how many ways 20 students can be
allotted to 4 tutorial groups of 4, 5, 5
and 6 students respectively?

9,77,72,87,522
 In how many ways 10 members of a
committee can be seated at a round
table if (i) they can sit anywhere (ii)
president and secretary can’t sit next
to each other.

3, 62, 880
3, 22, 560
 (Number of cases favorable to the
occurrence of event A)
Odds in favor of A =
(Number of cases against the occurrence of event A)

m

n
m
 mn
n
mn
P  A

P A  
 (Number of cases against the
occurrence of event A)
Odds in against event A =
(Number of cases in favor of occurrence of event A)
n

m
n
 mn
m
mn


P A  
P  A

The ratio m/n is always a rational number.

If m = 0, Number of favorable cases to the occurrence of event A = 0. and P (A) = 0, the
event is known as impossible event in this case.
If n = 0, the P (A) = 1, the event is known as sure or certain in this case.
If neither m = 0 nor n = 0. The probability of occurrence of A is defined as P (A), and it
remains between 0 and 1.
Hence the probability of occurrence of A satisfies the relation
0  P (A)  1.
Important :
1. If the events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, the sum of their individual
probablilties of occurrence, is = 1.
Ex: If A, B and C are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, then
P (A) + P (B) + P (C) = 1
2. The probability of occurrence of one particular event is also called marginal property of
the event.
3. To choose an event at random from N objects means that each object has the same
probability 1/N of being chosen.

Ex :
If two coins are flipped, there are four possibilities

{HH, HT, TH, TT}

Let E1 is the probability of getting one head and one tail.

Then PE1  
2 1

4 2

If E2 is the probability of getting two tails.

P E2  
1
Then,
4
Limitations of Classical Approach :
1. This approach is based on the concept. i.e., assumes that all outcomes are symmetrical.
2. The term success is loosely defined.
3. Based on the abstract reasoning.
4. Limited applicability.
Relative Frequency Approach ( Modern Definition ):
Under this approach of probability of happening of an event is the proportion of the time
that event of same kind will occur in the long run if an experiment is repeated N times
under identical conditions and an event E occurs ‘n’ times then;

P E  
n
, Provided that N is very large
N

 N  n and n is a ratio.
N
n
0  1
N

n/N = 0, never shows that ‘n’ is an impossible event but in N trials the occurrence of n is
so insignificant that it can be considered as impossible event.
Similarly, n/N = 1, never means a certain event but it shows that in N trials of same
experiment the occurrence of n is so frequent that it can be considered as certain
event.
Hence an event E, if occurs n times for N large trials under identical conditions and if N
approaches infinity the ratio n/N expresses the limit of true probability, so that

PE   lim N 
n
N

Limitation :
Since this approach requires repetition of experiment a large number of times, which
reduces the practical utility in number of situations. Specially when event occurs only
once.
Ex:
1. The probability that a particular candidate win in elections from a certain constituency
can not be obtained by applying this approach.
Subjective or Personalistic Approach :

This approach is used to determine the probability of events which have either not
occurred at all in the past or which will occur only once or where the experiment can
not be performed under identical conditions repeatedly.

It can be defined as the measure of one’s confidence in the occurrence of a particular event.
It rests with the person’s mind and not with the physical event. Confidence or faith in
the occurrence of an event being a matter of personal outlook or judgment, therefore a
subjective approach is also known as personalistic approach.

The limitation of this approach is that probabilities are based on personal confidence which
may vary from person to person depending on one’s perception of the situation and the
past experience.

The main advantage of this approach is that it is highly flexible and can be applied to the
number of situations where earlier approaches fail to offer any situation.
Addition Rule of probability (Theorem of Total Probability) :

If A and B are two events then the probability that at least one of them occurs is denoted
by P (A  B) and is given by:
P (AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B).
Proof :
According to Veen – Diagram U AB
B = (B  Ac)  (B  A) and B  Ac
=B-A
A = (A  Bc)  (A  B)
B  Ac and B  A are mutually exclusive events.
Therefore,
P (B) = P (B  Ac) + P (B  A)………..(1)
And,
A  B = A  (B  Ac )
P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B  Ac )
= P (A) + P (B) - P (B  A)
= P (A) + P (B) - P (A  B)
Mutually, Exclusive events have no common sample points in them, Therefore, if A and
B are two mutually exclusive events then A  B = . And in this case P (A  B ) = 0.
In case of mutually exclusive events ; P (A  B ) = P (A) + P (B).
If there are three events A, B and C (mutually exclusive).,
Then,
P (A  B  C ) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C).
Similarly, if there are ‘n’ mutually exclusive events then,
P (A1  A2  …………  An) = P (A1) + P (A2) +…………… + P (An)
Conditional Probability :
Multiplication Theorem of Probability :
Counting Rules:
Example:
A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, find P(B) if
1 1
P (C )  P ( A)  P ( B )
3 2

Solution:
1 1
P(C )  P( A)  P( B)  k ( say )
3 2
 P(C )  3k , P( A)  2k , P( B)  k
Since the events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, the sum of probabilities of their
occurrence should be equal to 1.
1
3k  2k  k  1  k 
6
1
 P( B) 
6
Example 2:
A, B and C are bidding for a contract. It is believed that A has exactly 2/5 the chance that B
has, B in turn, is 4/5th as likely as C to win the contract. What is the probability for each to
win the contract.

Solution:
Let P(A), P(B) and P(C) are the probabilities of winning the contract by A, B and C. As
directed by the problem following are the relations amongst the probabilities.
P (C )  k ,
4
P( B)  k
5
and ,
2
P ( A)  k
5
Since A, B and C mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, therefore

 P( A)  P( B)  P(C )  1
2 4 5
 k  k  k 1 k 
5 5 11
 2 4 5
 P( A)  , P( B)  , P(C ) 
11 11 11
Example 3:
Die is loaded with in such a way that the probability of each face is proportional to the number
on that face. What is the probability of getting an even number in one throw?

Solution:
Let the probability of getting 1 = k.

Then the probability of getting 2 = 2k and the probabilities of getting 3, 4, 5 and 6 are 3k, 4k,
5k and 6k respectively.

Since all the events, i.e., getting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, we
have k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k + 6k = 1  k = 1/21.

Now, the probability of getting an even number is given by;

1 4
2k  4k  6k  12k  12  
21 7
Example 4:
Three horses A, B and C are in a race. A is twice as likely to win as B and B is twice as likely
to win as C. What are the respective probabilities of winning? Presume that dead heat is not
possible.

Solution:
Let the probability of winning of horse C = p. Then the probability of winning of B and A will
be 2p and 4p respectively.

Since the event of winning of horses are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, we have

p + 2p + 4p = 1  p = 1/7

4 2 1
Respective probabilities of winning of A, B and C are ' '
7 7 7
Example 5:
A die is loaded in such a way that each odd number is twice as likely to occur as each even
number. Find
(1) The probability that the number rolled is perfect square.
(2) The probability that the number rolled is a perfect square provided it is greater than 3.

Solution:
Let the probability of getting an even number = P
Then, the probability of getting an odd number = 2P

Since two of the defined events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, therefore

2P + P + 2P + P + 2P + P = 1  P = 1/9

Since in throw of a die there are 6 outcomes in total, out of which 1 and 4 are perfect squares

(1) The probability that the number rolled is a perfect square

= Probability of getting 1 + Probability of getting 4
 2 1 1
  
9 9 3

(2) The probability that the number rolled is a perfect square greater than 3
= Probability of getting 4
= 1/9

E 6:

(1) Calculate P (B/A) if P (A) = 0.75, P(B) = 0.60 and P (A/B) = 0.90.
(2) A pair of dice is thrown, find the probability (a) that the sum is neither 8 nor 10, (b) that
the sum is greater than 12.
(3) If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the dice is
(a) greater than 8, (b) Neither 7 nor 11.
(1) As we know from multiplication theorem of probability:

P( A  B)  P( A).P B A  P( B).PA B 
or , P( A).P B   P( B).P A   P( A  B)
A B

Therefore:

0.75  P B  A  0.60  0.90

PB  A  0.600.750.90  0.72
2 (a) The probability of getting neither 8 nor 10.

Now,
5
The probability of getting sum as 8 
36

3
The probability of getting sum as 10 
36

5 3 8 2
The probability of getting sum as 8 or 10    
36 36 36 9

The Probability that sum is neither 8 nor 10

= 1 - The probability of getting sum as 8 or 10

[ P(A)  1  P(A)]
Therefore,
2 7
The Probability that sum is neither 8 nor 10  1  
9 9

(b) The probability of getting 12 is an “Impossible Event”.

3 (a) Sum greater than 8 means 9, 10, 11 and 12, that can happen in following ways:

Sum Possible combination of numbers on faces Sample Points

9 (3, 6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4) 4
10 (4, 6), (6, 4), (5, 5) 3
11 (5, 6), (6, 5) 2
12 (6, 6) 1

10
The probability of getting sum more than 8 is: P ( sum  8) 
36
6
(b) P( sum  7) 
36
2
P( sum  11) 
36
6 2 8
P( sum  7or11)   
36 36 36
8 7
P( sum  7or11)  1  
36 9
E 7:

A man wants to marry a girl having qualities white complexion – The probability of having
such a girl is 1 in 20; Handsome dowry – The probability of getting this is 1 in 50;
Westernized manners and etiquettes, the probability here is 1 in 100. Find out the
probability of his getting married to such a girl when possession of these three attribute is
independent.

Solution:

In other words, the question reduces to saying that there are three independent events, i.e.,
white complexion, handsome dowry, and western culture and etiquettes and we are to find
the probability that all these three events occur simultaneously.
1 1 1 5
Hence the required probability     10
20 50 100
E 7:

If a coin is tossed three times, what is the probability that there are at-least one head and at-
least one tail.

Solution:

If a coin is tossed three times, the following combinations are possible:

HHH HHT HTT HTH THH TTH TTT THT

Getting atleast one head and one tail can happen 6 possible ways

6 3
Hence the required probability  
8 4
E 8:

From 20 tickets marked with first 20 numerals one is drawn at random, what is the probability
that it is a multiple of 3 and 7.

Solution:

In the first 20 numerals multiple of 3 are 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18. Total Number = 6. And the
multiples of 7 are 7, 14. Total number = 2.

62 8 2
Required Probability   
20 20 5
E 9:

There are 4 clerks and 3 officers in a bank. A committee of 3 is to be formed at random. Find
the probability that at least one clerk and one officer are included in the committee.

Solution:
7 7
Total number of ways the committee can be selected can be given as 7C3   
(7  3)3 43
Set :
A well defined collection of distinct objects is known as a set.
Subset :
If A and B are two sets then, A is said to be subset of B, if x  A  x  B. i.e., every
element of A is also an element of B. This can be written as A  B.
Here A and B are also equal sets.
Hence we can always say.
A = B  B  A and A  B and vice-versa.

Equal Sets :
If A and B are two sets then, A is equal to B, if x  A  x  B. i.e., every element of A is
also an element of B. And can be written as A = B. A = B also  B = A.
Equivalent Sets :
If A and B are two sets then, A is said equivalent to B, if cardinal number of A = cardinal
number of B. And it can be written as A  B.
Null Set, Empty Set or Void Set :
A set is said to be null or empty or void if the set contains no element at all. It is
represented by .
Operations on Sets :
Union :
If A and B are two sets then there union is defined as A  B. i.e., collection of all the
elements of A and B.
Mathematically, A  B is defined as
A  B = { x : x  A or x  B }

Ex :
If A = {2, 4, 5, 6}
and, B = {9, 2, 10}

Then, A  B = {2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10}

Vaan Euler’s Diagram

 AB

A B
Intersection :

If A and B are two sets then there intersection is defined as A  B. i.e., common elements
of A and B.
Mathematically, A  B is defined as
A  B = { x : x  A and x  B }

Ex :
If A = {2, 4, 5, 6}
and, B = {9, 2, 10, 5}

Then, A  B = {2, 5}

Vaan Euler’s Diagram

 AB

A B
Disjoint of Sets :
If A and B are two sets then they will be said as disjoint sets, if A  B =  {Null Set}. i.e.,
there is no common element in A and B.
Ex:
If A = {2, 4, 5}
and, B = {1, 0}
Then A  B = 
Hence A and B are disjoint sets.
Complement of a Set :
If U is universal set and A is any subset of it then Ac is defined as, Ac = { x : x  A}.
 Jacob Bernoulli (1654-1705) De Moivre (1667-1754)

17th century Thomes Bayes (1702-1761) Joseph Lagrange (1736-1813)

 Pierre Simon and Laplace
19th century (1749-1827)
Pandita Jagannatha Samrat
(1652–1744) Munishvara
Ramchandra (1821–1880)
Ganesh Prasad (1876 – 1935 )

Treatise on Problems
of Theory of functions of
Maxima and Minima real variable
Srinivasa Ramanujan
A A krishnaswami Ayyangar
(1887 – 1920)
(1892 – 1953 )