Unit -1

Statistical Concepts
Probability is the mathematics of chance.

It tells us the relative frequency with which we can expect an

event to occur

The greater the probability the more likely the event will occur.

It can be written as a fraction, decimal, percent or ratio.

Probability is the numerical measure of the
likelihood that the event will occur.

Value is between 0 and 1.

Sum of the probabilities of all events is 1.

Probability and Random
variables
 Definition of Probability
Probability is the study of randomness and
uncertainty of an experiment. It is a numerical
measure of the likelihood that an event will
occur, which is expressed as a number
between 0 and 1.
 Experiment
By experiment we mean an act of conducting
a controlled test or investigation. The
experiment results in some outcome.
The possible results of an experiment may be
one or more.
Based on the number of possible results in an
experiment, we classify the experiments into
two as
DETERMINISTIC and PROBABILISTIC
 Deterministic Experiment
The Experiments which have only one possible
result or outcome i.e. whose result is certain or
unique are called deterministic or predictable
experiments. The result of these experiments is
predictable with certainty and is known prior to
its conduct.

E.g. An Experiment conducted to verify the

Newton's Laws of Motion.
 Probabilistic Experiment
Experiments whose result is uncertain are called
nondeterministic or unpredictable or
Probabilistic experiments. There are more than
one possible results or outcomes.

E.g. An Experiment of tossing a coin.

 Random Experiment
An Experiment whose result is uncertain i.e. a
random experiment is a probabilistic experiment.
The experiment results in two or more outcomes.
It cannot be predicted prior to its conduct.

E.g. Whenever a fair dice is thrown, it is known

that any of the 6 possible outcomes will occur,
but it cannot be predicted what exactly the
outcome will be.
S ={ , , , , , }
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of the
experiment, which are assumed equally likely.

E.g. In rolling a die, outcomes are

S ={ , , , , , }
Event
A sub-set of Sample space of Random Experiment
 Probability of an Event
Suppose that the sample space S = {o1, o2, o3, … oN}
has a finite number, N, of outcomes. Also each of
the outcomes is equally likely.
Then for any event E

nE nE no. of outcomes in E

PE=  
nS  N total no. of outcomes
• Find the probability of getting an even number when a
die is thrown.

When a die is thrown the sample space is

S ={ , , , , , }
The total number of possible outcomes is 6

The favourable number of outcomes is 3, that

is { , , }
3 1
The required probability is= 
6 2
 Probability Set Function
Let S be the sample space and if A subset of S, then
P(A) is the probability that the outcome of the
random experiment is an element of the set A. Then
the probability of the event A, P(A) is defined as a
real number satisfying the following axioms.
1. 0  P(A)  1
2. P(S) = 1
3. If A1, A2 A3,….., An,….. are mutually exclusive
events, then
P(A1  A2  A3 ….. An,….. ) = P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) +
….. + P(An)…..
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive then:
They have no outcomes in common.
They can’t occur at the same time. The outcome
of the random experiment can not belong to
both A and B.
A B 

A B
 Some Important Formulas
1. If A and B are any two events, then
P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A  B)
This rule is known as additive rule on probability.
For three events A, B and C, we have,
P(A  B  C )  P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  P(A  B)
 P(B  C)  P(A  C)  P(A  B  C)

2. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)
In general, if A1, A2, … , An are mutually exclusive,
then
P(A1  A 2  A3  ...  A n )  P(A1 )  P(A 2 )  ...  P(A n )
3. If A and Ac are complementary events, then
P(A) + P(Ac) = 1

4. P(S) = 1

5. P(Φ) = 0
• A card is drawn from a well-shuffled pack of
playing cards. What is the probability that it is
either a spade or an ace?
.
Let A be the event of drawing a spade
B be the event of drawing a ace

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)  P(A  B)

13 4 1 4
   
52 52 52 13
• In tossing a coin what is the probability of getting
Head or tail?
Let A be the event of getting Head
B be the event of getting Tail

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)

1 1
  1
2 2
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B,
assuming that the event A has happened, is denoted
by P(B/A) and defined as
P( A  B)
P( B / A)  , provided P(A)  0
P( A)

Product theorem of probability

Rewriting the definition of conditional
probability, We get
P( A  B)  P( A) P( B / A)
The product theorem can be extended to 3
events, A, B and C as follows:
P( A  B  C )  P( A) P( B / A) P(C / A  B)
• The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs
on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on
time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs
and arrives on time is P(D∩A) = 0.78. Find the
probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
(c) arrives on time, given that it did not departed on
time.
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time,
given that it departed on time, is
P( D  A) 0.78
P ( A / D)    0.94
P( D) 0.83

(b) The probability that a plane departed on

time, given that it has arrived on
time, is
P( D  A) 0.78
P( D / A)    0.95
P( A) 0.82
(c) The probability that a plane arrives on time,
given that it is not departed on time, is

P( D)  1  P( D)  1  0.83  0.17

P ( D  A)  ( D  A)  ( D  A)  A
P ( A / D)  ,
P ( D)
P ( A)  P ( D  A)

P ( D)
0.82  0.78

0.17
 0.24
 Independent Events
A set of events is said to be independent if the
occurrence of any one of them does not depend on
the occurrence or non-occurrence of the others.
If the two events A and B are independent, the
product theorem takes the form
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B),
Conversely, if P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B), the events are
said to be independent (pair wise independent).
By Conditional Probability, we have
P( A  B)
P( B / A)  , provided P(A)  0
P( A)

that is P( A  B)  P( A) P( B / A)

If P( B / A)  P( B) , then the events are said to be

independent.
• In the Flight arrival and departure time
experiment, we note that P(A/D) = 0.94, where as
P(A) = 0.82.
i.e., P(A/D) ≠ P(A)
indicating that A depends on D.
• Two cards are drawn in succession from an
ordinary deck, with replacement. The events are
defined as
A: the first card is an ace,
B: the second card is a spade.
Since the first card is replaced, our sample space
for both the first and the second draw consists of
52 cards, containing 4 aces and 13 spades. Hence,

P(B/A) = 13/52
P(B) = 13/52

i.e., P(B/A) = P(B)

when this is true, the events A and B are said to
be independent.
• A small town has one fire engine and one
ambulance available for emergencies. The
probability that the fire engine is available when
needed is 0.98, and the probability that the
ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the
event of an injury resulting from a burning
building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available,
assuming they operate independently.
Let A and B represent the respective events that
the fire engine and the ambulance are available.
Then

P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B) = (0.98) (0.92) = 0.9016

 Random Variable
A random variable is a function that associates
a real number with each element in the
sample space. Normally a capital letter, say X,
is used to denote a random variable and its
corresponding small letter, x in this case, for
one of its values.
Discrete Random Variable

If the random variable taken the values only

on the set {0, 1, 2, 3, ….. n} is called a Discrete
random variable.
E.g. The number of printing mistakes in
each page of a book, the number of telephone
calls received by the telephone operator.
• Two balls are drawn in succession without
replacement from an urn containing 4 red
balls and 3 black balls. The possible outcomes
and the values x of the random variable X,
where X is the number of red balls, are
Sample x
Space
RR 2
RB 1
BR 1
BB 0
• Suppose that our experiment consists of tossing 3
fair coins. If we let X denote the number of heads
appearing, then X is a random variable taking on
one of the values 0, 1, 2, 3 with respective
probabilities
S = {(H, H, H ), (H, H, T), (H, T, H), ( T, H, H),
(T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}
P{X = 0} = P{(T, T, T)} = 1/8
P{X = 1} = P{( T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T)} = 3/8
P{X = 2} = P{( T, H, H), (H, T, H),(H, H, T) }= 3/8
P{X = 3} = P{(H, H, H )} = 1/8
Discrete Probability Distributions
A discrete random variable assumes each of its
values with a certain probability.
In the case of tossing a coin three times, the
variable X, representing the number of heads,
assumes the value 2 with probability 3/8, since 3
of the 8 equally likely sample points result in two
heads and one tail. The possible values x of X and
their probabilities are
X 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
 Baye’s Rule
• Important tool in Bayesian statistical
inference.