Bayes' theorem is a formula that describes how to update

the probabilities of hypotheses when given evidence. It

follows simply from the axioms of conditional probability,
but can be used to powerfully reason about a wide range of
problems involving belief updates.
In a certain region of the country it is known from (last,
experience that the: probability of selecting an adult over 40
years of age: with cancer is 0.05, If the probability of a
doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having
the disease is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly
diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is
0.06, what is the probability that, a person is diagnosed as
having cancer?
An individual is being selected at random from the adults of
a small town to tour the country and publicize the
advantages of establishing new industries in the town.
Suppose that we are now given the additional information
that 36 of those employed and 12 of those unemployed are
members of the Rotary Club. We wish to find the probability
of the event A that the individual selected is a member of the
Rotary Club.
Given a hypothesis and evidence , Bayes' theorem states
that the relationship between the probability of the
hypothesis before getting the evidence and the probability
of the hypothesis after getting the evidence is
You might be interested in finding out a patient’s probability of having liver disease
if they are an alcoholic. “Being an alcoholic” is the test for liver disease.
 A could mean the event “Patient has liver disease.” Past data tells you that 10% of
patients entering your clinic have liver disease. P(A) = 0.10.
 B could mean the test that “Patient is an alcoholic.” Five percent of the clinic’s
patients are alcoholics. P(B) = 0.05.
 You might also know that among those patients diagnosed with liver disease, 7%
are alcoholics. This is your B|A: the probability that a patient is alcoholic, given
that they have liver disease, is 7%.
 Bayes’ theorem tells you:
P(A|B) = (0.07 * 0.1)/0.05 = 0.14
In other words, if the patient is an alcoholic, their chances
of having liver disease is 0.14 (14%). This is a large
increase from the 10% suggested by past data. But it’s still
unlikely that any particular patient has liver disease.
In a particular pain clinic, 10% of patients are prescribed
narcotic pain killers. Overall, five percent of the clinic’s
patients are addicted to narcotics (including pain killers and
illegal substances). Out of all the people prescribed pain
pills, 8% are addicts. If a patient is an addict, what is the
probability that they will be prescribed pain pills?
Step 1: Figure out what your event “A” is from the question. That
information is in the italicized part of this particular question. The
event that happens first (A) is being prescribed pain pills. That’s given
as 10%.

Step 2: Figure out what your event “B” is from the question. That
information is also in the italicized part of this particular question.
Event B is being an addict. That’s given as 5%.

Step 3: Figure out what the probability of event B (Step 2) given

event A (Step 1). In other words, find what (B|A) is. We want to know
“Given that people are prescribed pain pills, what’s the probability
they are an addict?” That is given in the question as 8%, or .8.
Step 4: Insert your answers from Steps 1, 2 and 3 into the
formula and solve.
P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B) = (0.08 * 0.1)/0.05 = 0.16
The probability of an addict being prescribed pain pills is
0.16 (16%).
 Bayes’ theorem problems can be figured out without using the
equation (although using the equation is probably simpler). But if you
can’t wrap your head around why the equation works (or what it’s
doing), here’s the non-equation solution for the same problem (the
genetic test problem) above.
 Step 1: Find the probability of a true positive on the test. That equals
people who actually have the defect (1%) * true positive results (90%) =
.009.
 Step 2: Find the probability of a false positive on the test. That equals
people who don’t have the defect (99%) * false positive results (9.6%) =
.09504.
 Step 3: Figure out the probability of getting a positive result on the test.
That equals the chance of a true positive (Step 1) plus a false positive
(Step 2) = .009 + .09504 = .0.10404.
 Step 4: Find the probability of actually having the gene, given a positive
result. Divide the chance of having a real, positive result (Step 1) by the
chance of getting any kind of positive result (Step 3) = .009/.10404 =
0.0865 (8.65%).
You go to see the doctor about an ingrowing toenail. The doctor
selects you at random to have a blood test for swine flu, which for
the purposes of this exercise we will say is currently suspected
to affect 1 in 10,000 people in Australia. The test is 99% accurate,
in the sense that the probability of a false positive is 1%. The
probability of a false negative is zero. You test positive. What is
the new probability that you have swine flu?
Now imagine that you went to a friend’s wedding in Mexico
recently, and (for the purposes of this exercise) it is know
that 1 in 200 people who visited Mexico recently come back
with swine flu. Given the same test result as above, what
should your revised estimate be for the probability you have
the disease?
In a TV Game show, a contestant selects one of three doors;
behind one of the doors there is a prize, and behind the other
two there are no prizes. After the contestant selects a door, the
game-show host opens one of the remaining doors, and reveals
that there is no prize behind it. The host then asks the contestant
whether they want to SWITCH their choice to the other unopened
door, or STICK to their original choice. Is it probabilistically
advantageous for the contestant to SWITCH doors, or is the
probability of winning the prize the same whether they STICK or
SWITCH? (Assume that the host selects a door to open, from
those available, with equal probability).
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, Bi, B2,
and B3, make 30%:, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of
the products. It is known from past, experience that
2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each
machine, respectively, are defective. Now suppose
that a finished product is randomly selected. What is
the probability that it is defective? If a product were
chosen randomly and found to be defective, what is
the probability that it was made by machine B3?
 A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the
design and development of a particular product. For cost
reasons, all three are used at varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2,
and 3 are used for 30%,, 20%, and 50% of the products
respectively. The "defect rate:" is different for the three
procedures as follows:

where P(D/Pj) is the probability of a, defective product,

given plan j. If a random product was observed and found to
be defective, which plan was most likely used and thus
responsible?