DIRE DAWA UNIVERSITY

Institute of Technology

Electrical Engineering Department

Power system planning and operation

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Chapter one
Load forecasting

Classification and characteristics of loads

Forecasting methodology

Energy forecasting

Demand forecasting

Peak demand forecasting

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 Cont.
Load refers to customer demand for electricity.

 Power system planning starts with a forecast of

anticipated future load requirements.

Estimates of both demand capacity and energy

requirements are crucial to effective system planning.

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 Why Load Forecasting
There is a time lag between awareness of a future need and serving that
need.

 In order to serve the need adequate generation, transmission and

distribution system have to be put in place.

But delivery of requested power and energy always requires some time
for the construction of the generation and transmission facilities which
takes a definite lead time.

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 Objectives of Load Forecasting
Determines the future trend of electricity consumption of each demand sectors starting from the
base year.

Determines the total annual consumption as well as its decision.

Depends mainly on the historical and current data of the base year, national GDP growth,
population growth, customers’ income growth, government plan on rural electrification,
government policies and view on climate issues etc.

It includes the historical data analysis and modelling annual forecast of energy demand and peak
capacity demand of a power system network within the projection period.

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 By rate of use.
 Base load. The unvarying load which occurs almost the whole day on the station
is known as base load.
Peak load. The various peak demands of load over and above the base load of
the station is known as peak load.

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 Cont.
Peak load The variable load on a power station necessitates to have additional
equipment.

In order to produce variable power, the supply of these materials will be required
to be varied correspondingly.

For instance, if the power demand on the plant increases, it must be followed by
the increased flow of coal, air and water to the boiler in order to meet the increased
demand.

 Therefore, additional equipment has to be installed to accomplish this job.

 The variable load on the plant increases the cost of the production of electrical
energy.

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 Cont.
Residential customers use energy for domestic purpose,

commercial and industrial customers use energy for commercial purpose and
industrial purpose respectively,

The agricultural sector includes energy demand for low and medium scale agro-
industries and farming.

The public service sectors may include schools, medical centers, street lighting,
public offices and entertainments.

Other can include government offices, electric utility own consumption, power
pool interconnections, electric railways, etc.

Classification of loads is important to study the group behavior as load behavior

for the different groups varies significantly.

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 Quiz(5)+attendance(5%)=10% point.

1. What is need of load forecast in power system planning

and operation?
2. Differentiate the electrical load by rate of use, types of
use, geographical distribution.
3. State the what do terms peak and base load imply.

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 Characteristics of Loads
In most part of the world the residential loads have the most seasonal fluctuations.

And they are responsible for the seasonal variations of the system peak.

This is mostly due to the weather sensitive devices used for space heaters and air
conditioners.

In the case of Ethiopia the weather does not significantly vary throughout the year.

Therefore demand seasonality is minimal.

 Here the residential loads are characterized by lighting and since the system peak
is during the evening, their contribution to the system peak is significant.

some parts of the world commercial and public services loads are characterized by
seasonal fluctuations just like that of the domestic category.

In the case of Ethiopia there is no significant demand seasonality.

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 Load Curves and Load duration curves
. Load curve is a graphical representation between load in kW (or MW) in proper
time sequence and time in hours.

It shows the variation of load on the power station.

The highest point on the load curve represents the maximum demand (peak
demand) on the station on that day.

The area under the load curve gives the total energy supplied on that day.

if this area is divided with the number of hours average load (power) obtained

Load curves can be daily, weekly, monthly and yearly depending on the period of
observation.

 For daily load curve, the period of time is taken as 24 hours and for annual load
curve the time is considered as 8760 hours.

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 Load duration curve

Graph between load and time in which the ordinates representing the load are
plotted in the order of descending magnitude, that is, with the greatest load at the
left, lesser loads towards the right and the lowest load at the extreme right.

The load duration curve is derived from the load curve and therefore, represents
the same data as that of the load curve.

The load duration curve is constructed by selecting the maximum peak points and
connecting them by a curve.

Load duration curve determines the percent (%) of system peak load.

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Radial power system distribution

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 Important Terms and Factors
Connected load It is the sum of continuous ratings of all the equipment's connected to
supply system.

if a consumer has connections of five100-watt lamps and a load with a power of 500 watts,
then connected load of the consumer is 5 × 100 + 500 = 1000 watts.

Maximum demand : It is the greatest demand of load on a given period.

Demand factor. It is the ratio of maximum demand on the power station to its connected
load i.e., Demand factor =Maximum demand/Connected load

Average load. The average of loads occurring on the power station in a given period (day
or month or year) is known as average load or average demand.

Daily average load =No. of units (kWh) generated in a day/24 hours

Monthly average load =No. of units (kWh) generated in a month/24*30

Yearly average load = No. of units (kWh) generated in a year/8760 hours

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 Cont.

Load factor. The ratio of average load to the maximum demand during a given
period. Load factor =Average load/Max. demand

If the plant is in operation for T hours,

Load factor = Average load *T/Max. demand *T

Load factor = Units generated in T hours/Max. demand × T hours

Diversity factor. The ratio of the sum of individual maximum demands to the
maximum demand on power station is known as diversity factor i.e.,

Diversity factor = Sum of individual max. demands/Max. demand on power station

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 Cont.

A power station supplies load to various types of consumers whose maximum

demands generally do not occur at the same time.

Therefore, the maximum demand on the power station is always less than the
sum of individual maximum demands of the consumers.

 Obviously, diversity factor will always be greater than 1.

 The greater the diversity factor, the lesser is the cost of generation of power.

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 Example
A power station has to meet the following demand :

Res(A): 200 kW between 8 A.M. and 6 P.M.

Ir(B) : 100 kW between 6 A.M. and 10 A.M.

Pub(C): 50 kW between 6 A.M. and 10 A.M.

Com(D) : 100 kW between 10 A.M. and 6 P.M. and then between 6 P.M. and 6
A.M.

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Cont.
Plot the daily load curve

Plot the daily load duration curve

determine

I.diversity factor

II.Maximum demand

III.Average load

IV.Load factor

V.units generated per day

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Load curve

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Load duration curve

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 Cont.

Diversity factor =200 + 100 + 50 + 100/350=1.28

Maximum demand=350

Average load= 100 × 12 + 150 × 2 + 350 × 2 + 300 × 8 /24= 191·7 kW

Load factor =191.7/350=0.55

Units generated=100 ×12 + 150 × 2 + 350 × 2 + 300 × 8= 4600 kWh/day

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1. Why are load curves drawn ?
2. How will you improve the diversity factor of a power station ?
3. What is the importance of load factor ?
4. What is the importance of diversity factor ?
5. Why values of demand factor and load factor are always less than 1 ?
6. How do load factor and diversity factor influence the cost of generation?
7. What do you understand by (i) base load and (ii) peak load of a power station ?
8. At the end of a power distribution system, a certain feeder supplies three distribution
transformers, each one supplying a group of customers whose connected loads are as under:
Transformer Load Demand factor Diversity of groups
Transformer No. 1 10 kW 0·65 1·5
Transformer No. 2 12 kW 0·6 3·5
Transformer No. 3 15 kW 0·7 1·5
If the diversity factor among the transformers is 1.3, find
 The maximum load on the feeder.
 The Sum of max demands of customers on Transformer 1
 The Sum of max demands of customers on Transformer 2
 The Sum of max demands of customers on Transformer 3

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 Load Forecast Methods
Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry especially in the
deregulated economy.

A large variety of mathematical methods have been developed for load

forecasting.

 Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential to the
operation and planning of a utility company.

 Load forecasting helps an electric utility to make important decisions

including decisions on purchasing and generating electric power, load
switching, and infrastructure development.

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 Cont.
Load forecasts can be divided into three categories:

short-term forecasts which are usually from one hour to one week,

medium forecasts which are usually from a week to one or two years, and

long-term forecasts which are longer than one or two year.

A large variety of mathematical methods and ideas have been used for load
forecasting.

 The development and improvements of appropriate mathematical tools will lead

to the development of more accurate load forecasting techniques.

The accuracy of load forecasting depends not only on the load forecasting
techniques, but also on the accuracy of forecasted weather scenarios.

Various weather variables could be considered for load forecasting.

Temperature and humidity are the most commonly used load predictors.
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 Cont.

The key parameters during load forecast are

Population,

 Gross domestic product (GDP)

Temporal behavior patterns, and

Various weather parameters.

Population although energy consumption varies from household to household,

overall residential load is highly correlated with population.

 It stands to reason that more households create more demand.

GDP the wealth of households is also highly correlated with demand.

 Wealthier households have central air conditioning, larger living space, larger
refrigerators, and more appliances.

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 Cont.
They are(wealthier) less sensitive to utility bills and accordingly less likely to
economize their discretionary consumption,

In economic upturns, residential demand per household increases

Weather parameters has the largest impact on load.

Weather follows seasonal and daily patterns, which coupled with temporal
behavior impact residential load.

There are numerous techniques for modelling and forecasting electrical energy
and load requirements.

Models are divided into:

 Time series,

Econometric and end-use methods.

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 Time series Regression (Extrapolation)
Searching for systematic and recurrent relationships between loads at various
points in time is the essence of time series modelling.

Since time is the only explanatory variable, the data collection requirements of
this technique are the least of any forecasting technique.

 However, not all time series models are easy to implement.

The predictive accuracy of time series analysis varies tremendously from

application to application.

For short-term forecasts of relatively large and stable systems, it can be as

accurate as more elaborate models.

 It is subject to extreme errors in the 10—20 year horizon required for capacity
expansion planning.

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 Cont.
Extrapolation method makes the assumption that past rate of change in
electricity use or in electricity use per customer will continue into the future.

 In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of constructing new data points.

 It is similar to the process of interpolation, which constructs new points between

known points, but the results of extrapolations are often less meaningful, and are
subject to greater uncertainty.

Extrapolation method makes the assumption that past rate of change in

electricity use or in electricity use per customer will continue into the future.

Advantages of extrapolation method:

It is the simplest type of forecast

It requires only access to basic electricity sales and peak statistics

It can be developed by the use of simple statistical models

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 Cont.

Disadvantages of Extrapolation Method:

They assume, generally that the future will be like the past, which often turns out
to be untrue.

Changes in technology, structural shift in the economy or in demography and

changes in regulations are just a few of the parameters that are extremely difficult
to capture with the extrapolation forecast.

Extrapolation method is primarily used for short term forecast (one to five years),
for which the assumption that the future will be like the past is logical.

The essential prerequisite for a time series forecasting technique is data for the
last 10 to 30 time periods.

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Cont.

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Cont.

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 There is different forms of equations which used the time series regression

Linear

Parabolic equation

Polynomial Equation

Exponential

logistic

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Cont.

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cont.

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Cont.

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Question
What is the advantageous of time series compared to others?
what does the least error square method state?

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 Econometric Method (Correlation Techniques)
This class of model, like the time series model, uses historical regularities to
predict the future but attempts to go beyond time series models in explaining the
causes of trends.

Thus, Econometric Method depends on the relationships between electricity use

or peak demand and various economic demographic variables.

Econometric models postulate explicit causal relationships between the

dependent variable (either energy demand or loads) and other economic,
technological or demographic variables.

Simple models which use the relationship between energy growth and GDP are
in a sense causal since they postulate, at least implicitly, that economic activity
creates the need for electricity.

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 cont.
Other things being equal, econometric modelling would be preferred to time series
analysis.

 Even if both techniques could predict changes in demand with equal accuracy, the
econometric model would be more valuable since it might help in understanding why
changes in demand were occurring.

Knowing causes can help to plan to meet future needs.

Mostly used independent variables include:

GDP

 Population

Electrified Population

Price

 GDP/Cap The dependent variables

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 Cont.
Energy demand or Peak demand is a Multiple Regression Equation

 Y=f(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5) =a+b*GDP+C*pop +d*electrified Pop+e*GDP/Cap

Examples of economic and other variables often used to develop econometric

relationships are:

Household income

Electricity prices (by customer group)

Labor productivity

Commercial sector output (by sub sector)

Price of other fuels

Employment (by sector and subsector)

Industrial productivity

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 Cont.
Correlation techniques of forecasting relate system loads to various
demographic and economic factors.

This approach is advantageous in forcing the forecaster to understand clearly

the interrelationship between load growth patterns and other measurable factors.

The most obvious disadvantage, however, results from the need to forecast
demographic and economic factors, which can be more difficult than forecasting
system load.

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 Econometric Regression Method
In this method, both economic and demographic factors are considered to be
affecting the electrical energy consumption.

Equations are developed for each sector to simulate the historical respective
energy consumption taking into consideration the proper economic and
demographic factors as independent variables.

The factors considered can be GDP/sector, electricity price per/sector, and

population.

E(i) =a*GDP(i) +b* pop(i) + c* price(i) + d

 the total annual energy consumption prediction or forecast can be easily

calculated by summing up those of the different sectors.

Finally the system generated energy and peak load are derived by assuming the
system losses and load factor.
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 End use Approach
End use forecast is different from time series regression and econometric forecast in that they
attempt to build up estimates of electricity needs starting with analysis of what electricity will
be used.

This final class of model is more diverse than the preceding types.

 In one form or another, end-use modelling is probably part of most utility forecasting methods.

 Its distinguishing characteristic is a detailed description of how energy is used.

Such models usually begin by specifying reasonably homogeneous uses for which energy is
ultimately required, such as heating water, cooling buildings and cooking food.

The model then describes, via mathematical equations and accounting identities, the types of
energy-using equipment that businesses and households have, and how much energy is used by
each type of equipment to satisfy the predetermined levels of end-use energy demanded.

By summing up the units of equipment times the average energy used by each class of
equipment, total energy demand is revealed.
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 Cont.
The data requirements grow linearly and the computational difficulty grows
exponentially with the descriptive detail sought by the modeler.

computational requirements of end-use accounting can be satisfied with minimal

computer time, optimization of realistic energy models requires significantly more
computing capabilities.

End use approach used for long term demand forecast (20-30 years)

Advantages of End use Forecast:

it can be quite detailed, providing more information for planning

It is not usually technically complex, requiring mostly simple arithmetic

Can provide integrated forecast of both energy and peak power demands

The assumptions used in forecasting are usually relatively easy to follow

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 Disadvantages of End use Forecast
Hard to collect detailed data and time consuming to prepare.

End use approach estimates total usage by forecasting small segments of usage.

End-use models are often weakest in predicting consumers' decisions.

With the available data, they can easily describe where the energy is being used
and for what purposes but, without a theory to explain choices, they are limited in
their explanatory power to predict the future.

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 Demand Capacity Forecasting
Demand capacity forecast may be designed to estimate the instantaneous power (MW) that the
system need at specific time with a given period or the amount of electric energy (GWh) needed over
the day week, month or year.

The accuracy of a forecast is crucial to any electric utility, since it dictates the timing and
characteristics of major system additions.

A cost of having insufficient electric generation capacity on hand to meet the customer’s needs
usually manifests itself quit visible.

Industrial facilities reduce production, commercial establishments have interrupted hours of service,
households suffer inconvenience, goods may be damaged people may be injured.

Three characteristics of utilities(energy supplying company) set them apart from most industries and
heighten the negative consequences of in accurate expansion plans:

 They commit relatively large amount of capital for long periods,

 Comparatively long lead times are needed to add to their production capacity

 They provide a critical input to the production process of many other industries.
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 Sectorial Modelling
The energy demand is usually forecasted using the above methods for each
category of demand (Domestic, commercial, industrial etc.).

These have to be aggregated in order to determine the total energy forecast.

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 Peak Demand Forecasting
Peak demand forecast is important due to the seasonal variation of the capacity
demand by sectors.

 Thus a forecast that should analysis the peak capacity demand of the customers
is done usually by projection the peak demand of a day, week, month or year
using the different forecast methods until the projection end year.

The maximum instantaneous load within a given utility service territory is called
its peak demand.

 In electric systems with predominantly thermal capacity, it is more important to

know the peak demand than to know the amount of electrical energy demanded,
since the peak demand often sets the capacity expansion goal.

 For systems with large amounts of hydroelectric capacity, it may be more

important to know energy demand because these systems may have energy
limitations
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 Cont.
Example: Peak Power Requirements of the Ethiopian grid electricity supply
grows from in 2006 to 4,800MW in 2016

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Fuzzy logic for short term load
forecasting
The point of fuzzy logic is to map an input space to an output

Mechanism for doing this is a list of if-then statements called rules.

All rules are evaluated in parallel, and the order of the rules is unimportant.

The rules themselves are useful because they refer to variables and the adjectives
that describe those variables.

Before you can build a system that interprets rules, you must define all the terms you
plan on using and the adjectives that describe them.

To say that the weather is hot, you need to define the range that the weather's
temperature can be expected to vary as well as what we mean by the word hot.

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Cont.
By taking input parameter

• Days of the week(working day , weekend)

• Hours of the day(morning, after noon, evening, midnight)

• Temperature(Lo M, La)(20-40)

• Weather condition(windy, sunny, rainy cloudy)

Out put load minimum and max load 20-50Kw

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 Chapter end question
1. The yearly load duration curve of a certain power station can be approximated as a
straight line ; the maximum and minimum loads being 80 MW and 40 MW respectively.
To meet this load, three turbine generator rated at 25 MW each and one at 10 MW are
installed. Determine

 installed capacity

kWh output per year

load factor.

2. A power station is to supply four regions of loads whose peak values are 10,000 kW,
5000 kW, 8000 kW and 7000 kW. The diversity factor of the load at the station is 1.5 and
the average annual load factor is 60%.

Calculate the maximum demand on the station

annual energy supplied from the station.

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