Scribd
Upload
187 views7 pages

Assignment 1 QMM

The document discusses a manufacturing plant that experiences industrial accidents following a Poisson distribution with a mean of 12 accidents per year. It then asks to calculate: (1) the probability of exactly 12 accidents, (2) the probability of no more than 12 accidents, (3) the probability of at least 15 accidents, and (4) the probability between 10 and 15 accidents. It finally asks to find the smallest integer k such that there is a 99% chance of fewer than k accidents. The assistant provides the Poisson distribution formula and cumulative table to calculate the answers.

Uploaded by

Manish Gupta
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
187 views7 pages

Assignment 1 QMM

The document discusses a manufacturing plant that experiences industrial accidents following a Poisson distribution with a mean of 12 accidents per year. It then asks to calculate: (1) the probability of exactly 12 accidents, (2) the probability of no more than 12 accidents, (3) the probability of at least 15 accidents, and (4) the probability between 10 and 15 accidents. It finally asks to find the smallest integer k such that there is a 99% chance of fewer than k accidents. The assistant provides the Poisson distribution formula and cumulative table to calculate the answers.

Uploaded by

Manish Gupta
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 7

The annual number of industrial accidents occurring in a particular manufacturing plant is known...

Question:
The annual number of industrial accidents occurring in a particular manufacturing plant is known to follow a Poisson distribution with mean 12.
a. What is the probability of observing exactly 12 accidents during the coming year?
b. What is the probability of observing no more than 12 accidents during the coming year?
c. What is the probability of observing at least 15 accidents during the coming year?
d. What is the probability of observing between 10 and 15 accidents (inclusive) during the coming year?
e. Find the smallest integer k such that we can be at least 99% sure that the annual number of accidents occurring will be less than it.
Poisson Distribution Analysis:
Poisson distribution is one of the distribution types available in the domain of statistics and probability, others being, binomial distribution, beta distribution, normal distribution etc. It is a discrete
probability distribution which concerns with the probability of a given number of events occurring in a particular interval of time or space.
Answer and Explanation:
The answers to all the given sub-questions are explained below:
Here, the mean (m) of the given distribution is 12.
Also, the value of Euler's constant (e) = 2.71
a. What is the probability of observing exactly 12 accidents during the coming year?
The formula for the probability of x = 12 accidents is,
P(x)
=e−m∗mxx!=e−m∗mxx!
=e−12∗121212!=e−12∗121212!
= 11.86%
b. What is the probability of observing no more than 12 accidents during the coming year?
Using the cumulative Poisson distribution table with mean (m) = 12 and the x <= 12, we get the probability as 57.60%
c. What is the probability of observing at least 15 accidents during the coming year?
Using the cumulative Poisson distribution table with mean (m) = 12 and the x <= 14, we get the probability as 77.20%
Therefore, the probability of observing at least 15 accidents during the coming year = 100% - 77.20% = 22.80%
d. What is the probability of observing between 10 and 15 accidents (inclusive) during the coming year?
Using the cumulative Poisson distribution table with mean (m) = 12 and the x <= 9, we get the probability as 24.24%
Also, using the cumulative Poisson distribution table with mean (m) = 12 and the x <= 15, we get the probability as 84.44%
Therefore, the probability of observing between 10 and 15 accidents (inclusive) during the coming year
= probability of observing no more than 15 accidents during the coming year - probability of observing no more than 9 accidents during the coming year
= 84.44% - 24.24%
= 60.20%
e. Find the smallest integer k such that we can be at least 99% sure that the annual number of accidents occurring will be less than it.
Using the cumulative Poisson distribution table with mean (m) = 12 and the probability as 99%, we get x <= 20.29
Hence, for k= 21, we can be at least 99% sure that the annual number of accidents occurring will be less than it.

You might also like